Image: John Brannigan/Sherdog.com illustration
At first glance, the
Ultimate Fighting Championship’s latest trip to Mexico is a
middling offering at best, but for those willing to take a deeper
look, there might be some gold in those hills.
UFC Fight Night 268, which takes place Saturday at Arena CDMX
in Mexico City, is the least of the UFC’s offerings in that country
in recent years. The six-fight main draw is built to please the
Chilango faithful, with Mexican fighters squaring off against
foreigners in every bout—and heavily favored in all of them—but
there is a sneaky amount of divisional relevance in the prelims, as
the winner of the women’s bantamweight clash between
Macy
Chiasson and
Ailin Perez
might actually be closer to a title shot than anyone else on the
card. Outside of that contenders’ matchup, the undercard is a mixed
bag, heavy on the
Dana White's Contender Series alumni (10 out of 14 fighters on
the prelims came to the UFC through the show) and featuring
multiple fighters returning from long layoffs due to injury or
suspension. Here is the preview for the seven-fight preliminary
card of UFC Fight Night 268, also known as UFC Mexico:
Middleweights
BETTING ODDS: Gandra (-550); Medina (+450)
Gandra (8-1; 0-0 UFC) and Medina (11-6; 0-3 UFC) are both looking
for their first UFC win in the top prelim; the difference is that
this is Gandra’s first chance and probably Medina’s last. Gandra’s
game is about as subtle as a sledgehammer and, at least thus far,
about as effective. His performance on the Contender Series last
season, in which the 30-year-old Brazilian buried
Trent
Miller in under three minutes, is a representative example.
“Problema” marched forward with purpose, swinging heavy shots with
both hands, and put Miller on his heels almost immediately. Once he
had his man stung and reeling, he poured it on, adding some hard
kicks, keeping up the pressure and closing out the fight before it
ever really got started. A look at his regional tape reveals the
consistency of that approach: Gandra has thrived thus far on being
the more active, more aggressive, harder-hitting fighter,
preferring to keep things standing until or unless his opponent
forces the issue. Aside from a misstep in his second professional
fight, the approach has served him well and should continue to do
so until he runs into a fighter with much better footwork than
himself and/or one with the requisite wrestling chops to put him on
his back without eating haymakers first.
That leads us to Medina. It feels unkind to say, but “Chicho” might
be the worst fighter in the UFC relative to the division in which
he competes, and I say that in the midst of previewing a card that
also includes
Kris
Moutinho. Taking into account his loss on the Contender Series,
after which he was signed anyway, the 34-year-old Bolivian by way
of Mexico is 0-4 in Octagon-shaped fight enclosures. Beyond the raw
numbers, Medina is regressing even by the eyeball test; on DWCS and
in his first couple of UFC assignments, he presented as a tough,
high-volume brawler who might never be a contender, but could eke
out wins against a UFC middleweight or two. In his last two fights,
however, Medina’s volume has dried up, leaving a lumbering,
slow-footed puncher with decent but not great power and serious
defensive flaws. It is difficult to picture a plausible route to
victory for him against any UFC 185-pounder that doesn’t involve
his opponent making a major mistake.
That spells bad news in this matchup, as even the best version of
Medina was more or less tailor-made for a fighter like Gandra, who
favors the same kind of offense-first brawl but is quicker and
harder-hitting. Medina remains fairly durable—though that has waned
in the last year as well—and is likely to hang in there for a
while, but expect Gandra to win almost every exchange and the
damage to pile up quickly. Gandra by Round 2 TKO.
Jump To »
Gandra vs. Medina
Chiasson vs. Perez
Quinonez vs. Moutinho
Silva de Andrade vs. Reyes
Tarin vs. Kareckaite
Silva vs. Marshall
Pinas vs. SchultzWomen’s Bantamweights
BETTING ODDS: Perez (-180); Chiasson (+150)
Chiasson (10-5; 8-5 UFC) will look once again to establish herself
as a title contender at 135 pounds, the latest chapter in an often
frustrating UFC run that has been plagued by losses and weight
issues at the worst possible moments. Chiasson’s 8-5 UFC mark looks
unremarkable at first glance, but it’s worth noting that the “TUF
28” featherweight winner is 6-1 at bantamweight, with the sole loss
coming in her most recent outing against
Yana Santos.
At her best, the lanky Louisianan makes excellent use of her
physical tools, forcing her opponents to engage her either at
ultra-long range or up close and personal in the clinch, a bit like
a female version of
Tim Means. In
the clinch, her height and strength make her a serious problem for
opponents, and he uses elbows and knees well against the cage.
While Chiasson does not initiate the ground game very often, she is
very dangerous there, using her long limbs to secure back control,
threaten with chokes and land peppering, damaging strikes from a
variety of positions. Her difficulties have been largely
self-inflicted: Chiasson has had numerous weight issues at 145 as
well as 135 pounds, and she has been oddly flat and complacent in
some fights—potentially another sign of hard weight cuts in those
fights. The loss to Santos last October was the first time Chiasson
had really been beaten at her own game at bantamweight, as Santos,
a famously powerful clinch fighter, nullified and frankly pushed
the bigger woman around for long stretches.
Perez (12-2; 5-1 UFC) is a fighter I underestimated severely upon
her arrival in the UFC three years ago. Joining the promotion out
of some very low-level South American shows, “Fiona” looked like a
prospect with some good physical tools but no particular standout
skills, who was not even close to ready for the UFC. Her debut loss
to
Stephanie
Egger seemed to bear that out, but she has won five straight
fights since then and has looked sharper and more confident along
the way. Much like her bigger countrywoman
Norma
Dumont, Perez presents as a striker but has quickly realized
that her build and athleticism allow her to take down just about
anyone she wants to. Perez favors kicks and punches at long range,
either waiting for her opponent to close the distance or, if the
opponent happens to land a few good shots, closing the distance
herself. Once there, she can shoot a rudimentary double-leg that
she finishes with strength rather than technique, or she is adept
at body lock takedowns as well. Perez has a heavy top game,
smothering opponents, pelting them with short punches and looking
for a chance either to take their back, or finish with a topside
choke like the one she used against Daya Zheleznyakova last
September. Perez’s loss to Egger saw her outgrappled quickly by a
veteran judoka, but her difficulties since then have mostly come
against fighters with better, quicker feet, who have exposed her
own footwork and left her chasing them.
Perez is the moderate favorite here, likely due to her positive
momentum and Chiasson’s continued inconsistency. However, I’m
leaning towards the upset here. Chiasson’s recent relocation to a
new camp, where she works alongside the likes of
Kyle
Crutchmer and
Jacobe
Smith, is the wild card. Chiasson must understand on some level
that her window to become a serious title contender in the UFC is
narrowing; assuming the new team is a good fit and her weight is on
point, she has the physical tools and necessary skills to punish
Perez’s tendency to crash the pocket, punish her in close quarters
and either stay upright or only go to the ground when it is to her
advantage. The pick is Chiasson by decision.
Jump To »
Gandra vs. Medina
Chiasson vs. Perez
Quinonez vs. Moutinho
Silva de Andrade vs. Reyes
Tarin vs. Kareckaite
Silva vs. Marshall
Pinas vs. SchultzMen’s Bantamweights
BETTING ODDS: Quinonez (-650); Moutinho (+475)
Quinonez (18-5; 1-2 UFC) returns from a two-year layoff to the
honor—and the pressure—of being the first native Mexican to make
the walk at UFC Fight Night 268. The 29-year-old Entram Gym product
has been on the shelf ever since his February 2024 loss to
Raoni
Barcelos, first with injuries and then with visa issues that
caused the last-minute cancellation of a scheduled bout with
Adrian
Yanez last November in Las Vegas. Quinonez is a rangy
bantamweight who does his best work as a boxer at distance, taking
advantage of his reach and hand speed to pepper foes with jabs and
crosses. His difficulties have tended to come when he lets himself
be drawn into close-range brawls with stockier, harder hitting
foes, and when the fight hits the floor. Quinonez is actually a
skilled grappler, but his consecutive losses by rear-naked choke
show that he is not good enough to stave off better ground
fighters, especially when the sequence starts with his opponent
taking him down.
Lost in the narrative of Moutinho’s record (14-7; 0-3 UFC) is that
he is actually a skilled fighter, and an improving one. Originally
signed in 2021 as a short-notice fall guy for
Sean
O'Malley—Moutinho was not even the best bantamweight in
CES at the time—he washed out of the UFC after two losses, went
back to New England and finished five straight foes to earn another
shot in the Octagon. His reward? A matchup with then-undefeated
phenom
Malcolm
Wellmaker, who looked at the time like he might be the next
O’Malley. O’Malley and Wellmaker are nightmare asks for a fighter
like Moutinho, however, and depending on matchups, there are some
UFC bantamweights he could probably beat. Moutinho is a technically
sound boxer who throws in combination, usually has ample volume,
and is very dogged in the pocket, sometimes to his own detriment.
Unfortunately, Moutinho just doesn’t have the physical tools to
hang with UFC-level bantamweight strikers. He is fairly small, does
not have particularly fast hands or feet, and his power is poor.
Combined with his need to box at close range, those limitations
mean that he must weather a ton of punishment just to make rounds
competitive.
Quinonez is a whopping favorite here, and that is justified—if he
is in good competitive shape. If this were his first fight booked
after his medical layoff, it might be worth a flier on Moutinho,
but Quinonez had been all ready to go three months ago when his
visa issues kept him out of the country. This is likely to be a
very lopsided fight, with Moutinho plodding gamely forward, eating
a million punches from the longer, quicker boxer. Quinonez doesn’t
have off-the-charts power himself, and Moutinho remains fairly
durable, so the pick is Quinonez by dominant decision.
Jump To »
Gandra vs. Medina
Chiasson vs. Perez
Quinonez vs. Moutinho
Silva de Andrade vs. Reyes
Tarin vs. Kareckaite
Silva vs. Marshall
Pinas vs. SchultzFeatherweights
BETTING ODDS: Reyes (-240); Silva de Andrade (+190)
Silva de Andrade (29-6, 1 NC; 7-6 UFC) abandons his bantamweight
aspirations, returning to 145 pounds and welcoming Reyes to the
promotion. “D’Silva” is now 40 years old, nearly two years from his
last fight, and in the final act of a UFC run that never truly got
out of second gear. While he has been a notoriously tough out and
has lost only to very good fighters since joining the UFC 12 years
ago, he has only fought 13 times in that span and never won more
than two in a row. It’s simply impossible to make any headway in a
division as deep and competitive as featherweight fighting once a
year. Silva de Andrade is a good wrestler and skilled top-position
grappler, and in another universe, he might have become something
like a featherweight
Rafael dos
Anjos, bullying bigger fighters like it was nothing. However,
in this universe he comes across more like a featherweight
Joaquim
Silva, a stocky, powerful athlete who never met a brawl he
didn’t like and tends to forget his ground game. Silva de Andrade
throws some exotic techniques, including some spinning kicks and
flying attacks, but for the most part he likes to wade into the
pocket and unload hooks with both hands, trusting his power and
chin to carry the day. His left hook is particularly accurate and
damaging, and at least as recently as summer of 2024, he had enough
cardio to go three hard rounds.
Reyes (22-5; 0-0 UFC) is hard to label. “Journeyman” sounds
dismissive, but “prospect” sounds wishful, when talking about a
32-year-old featherweight with nearly 30 career fights. “Blair” has
some good wins on his slate, including
Chase
Gibson, whom he defeated in
Legacy Fighting Alliance, and
Justice
Torres, whom he knocked out in short order on the Contender
Series last fall. Reyes is a good-sized featherweight who works at
a steady pace and tends to build as the fight goes along. His leg
kicks and diligent body work reinforce the idea that he wants to
wear his opponent out and drag them into deeper waters, and both of
those techniques line up well with Silva de Andrade’s
vulnerabilities. While he is not a particularly adept wrestler
offensively or defensively, Reyes is a good submission grappler who
can sometimes spend too much time attacking from his back when he
might be better off trying to get back up.
Reyes is a comfortable favorite here, but maybe he shouldn’t be.
Silva de Andrade is a harder hitter and far more experienced
against top-level competition; he is easily the best fighter Reyes
has faced, while Reyes might not even crack the top 10 fighters the
Brazilian has fought. If Silva de Andrade were not 40, and coming
back from a 20-month layoff, I would be all over the upset here,
and in fact my podcast co-host Keith picked “D’Silva.” However,
given Reyes’ relative youth, his builder tendencies and the
question marks hovering over Silva de Andrade, the call here is
Reyes by decision.
Jump To »
Gandra vs. Medina
Chiasson vs. Perez
Quinonez vs. Moutinho
Silva de Andrade vs. Reyes
Tarin vs. Kareckaite
Silva vs. Marshall
Pinas vs. SchultzCatchweight (130 pounds)
BETTING ODDS: n/a
Tarin (7-0; 0-0 UFC) steps in on just four days’ notice in place of
Sofia
Montenegro in a bout moved from 125 to 130 pounds. The
undefeated 21-year-old, who has been fighting in second-and
third-tier promotions since turning pro a little over two years
ago, is a promising prospect. “Kill Bill” looks a little like
Irene
Aldana and, on the feet at least, fights a bit like her as
well. Tarin is a long-framed flyweight with good reach who uses her
natural tools well, keeping her opponents at middle to long range
and piecing them up with punches and kicks. Tarin is also a willing
and capable grappler if pressed by her opponent, but thus far her
sojourns on the ground have mostly come when her foe was already
hurry and/or desperate. The component skills of a future standout
are there, and Tarin looks like an excellent prospect by the
eyeball test, but this will be an enormous step up in competition
for her, and it remains to be seen whether her kickboxing will be
as dominant against UFC flyweights.
Kareckaite (6-1-1; 1-1 UFC) is only 27 years old herself and has
only one more professional fight than Tarin, but she has already
proven she belongs in the Octagon. Since her Contender Series win
over Carly Judice—which continues to age well for her—the rangy
Lithuanian has split her two UFC bouts. While she certainly
presents as a striker, that description oversimplifies things:
Kareckaite acquitted herself very well on the ground in a decision
loss to
Dione
Barbosa, a decorated grappler. She has very long reach and sets
out to use it, jabbing and low-kicking her foe, but she too often
allows shorter foes to dictate the range of engagement. She throws
good volume and is accurate on the feet, but despite her “Heavy
Handed” nickname, she lacks one-shot power. Combined with her
hittability and her tendency to let shorter fighters put her on the
back foot, Kareckaite struggles to put her stamp on close rounds
even when she is the superior technician. That, in turn, has led to
four split decision wins in her last five fights. These are habits
that can be addressed with experience, and many fighters have done
so, but for the time being, she will always be one iffy scorecard
away from a split-decision loss.
That leads directly into my prediction for this fight. While odds
have not yet been released (the fight was announced two hours ago)
Kareckaite was a -300 favorite over Montenegro, who is not a bad
prospect herself, and it’s hard to imagine she will not be
similarly favored over the newcomer. However, Tarin has a few
things going for her. One, she is an aggressive, come-forward
striker, and likely to be even more aggressive in a win-win
scenario like the one she finds herself in this weekend. That might
come into play heavily in a competitive striking battle. Two, Tarin
lives and trains in Mexico City, at altitude, which eliminates many
of the concerns about a short-notice debut at 7000-plus feet. It’s
entirely possible that despite no training camp for this fight,
Tarin ends up being the fresher fighter in Round 3. With both of
those things being true, I’m leaning towards a Tarin win by
decision in her debut.
Jump To »
Gandra vs. Medina
Chiasson vs. Perez
Quinonez vs. Moutinho
Silva de Andrade vs. Reyes
Tarin vs. Kareckaite
Silva vs. Marshall
Pinas vs. SchultzFeatherweights
BETTING ODDS: Marshall (-700); Silva (+500)
“The King” Silva (9-3; 0-2 UFC) returns from a two-year injury
layoff, just weeks shy of his 39th birthday, looking to make a
little hay while the sun still shines on his oddball career. The
Venezuelan by way of Costa Rica grew up in his father’s martial
arts academy and has well-rounded skills, along with far more
veteran poise than one might expect of a man with only 12
professional fights. On the feet, he is an upright kickboxer with
long reach and underrated power, but he is extremely hittable, with
poor footwork and next to no head movement. He is an excellent
grappler, with strong positional awareness, quick back takes and a
venomous rear-naked choke, but his wrestling is decent at best,
meaning that at the UFC level, it has usually been up to his
opponent to dictate where the fight takes place. On top of his
advancing age, Silva fell victim to a serious knee injury the last
time we saw him in action, and it is difficult to imagine his
footwork or cardio being better at age 38 after rehabilitation from
such an injury.
Marshall (8-3; 2-3 UFC) is almost exactly 12 years younger than
Silva and still appears to be a fighter on the rise. He is better
than his 2-3 UFC mark suggests; two of his three losses have been
split decisions and most recent outing, a split-decision loss to
Mairon
Santos, was an absolute robbery, as even Santos freely
admitted. Marshall is a classic wrestle-boxer with good jiu-jitsu
who tends to get into brawls on the feet, or scramble-fests on the
ground, that play into his opponents’ strengths as much as his own,
which often leaves bouts closer than they need to be. While the
Santos fight was a strong performance against another good
prospect, marred by the judges’ failure, his split-decision win
over
Dennis
Buzukja was closer and more entertaining than it needed to be
against a fighter who frankly was not UFC-level.
Marshall is the biggest favorite on the entire card, and in many
ways he rightfully should be. He is far younger than Silva, far
more active, is more skilled almost everywhere and appears to be
improving from fight to fight. However, Marshall’s tendency to let
his opponents dictate the terms of engagement makes it difficult to
feel comfortable relying on him to win fights that he should win
easily. The pick here is Marshall by early submission, and I do
favor him even if the fight goes the distance, but if I were
looking for betting value on this card, I’d give this fight a hard
pass.
Jump To »
Gandra vs. Medina
Chiasson vs. Perez
Quinonez vs. Moutinho
Silva de Andrade vs. Reyes
Tarin vs. Kareckaite
Silva vs. Marshall
Pinas vs. SchultzMiddleweights
BETTING ODDS: Pinas (-270); Schultz (+220)
It’s Dana White’s Saturday Night Contender Series in the opening
fight, as
DWCS Season 9 alums Pinas (8-1; 0-1 UFC) and Schultz (8-2; 0-0
UFC) make their promotional debuts opposite one another. Pinas is a
23-year-old from Surinam who, at this point in his development at
least, presents as a prototypical Dutch-Surinamese style kickboxer.
He is tall, with long reach and long legs, and throws a variety of
hard, accurate kicks and punches from both sides of his upright
stance. Pinas definitely has plus power, but with a few exceptions,
his knockouts have come from piling up damage with combinations
rather than a single
Melvin
Manhoef-esque killshot. Pinas’ takedown defense is suspect, as
even some of his badly overmatched regional foes have managed to
get him to the canvas, but he gets back up quickly rather than play
jiu-jitsu from his back, and thus far none of his opponents have
had him in serious danger. When he ends up in top position on the
ground, he throws jackhammer punches and is not averse to grabbing
his opponent’s neck in transition.
Schultz is nearly Pinas’ opposite in terms of skills and approach.
While he has experience as a kickboxer, his striking in MMA has
been nothing to write home about, while his ground game is creative
and dangerous. Schultz works quickly to get the fight to the
ground, but rather than shooting conventional takedowns, he thrives
on creating collisions that lead to scrambles, trusting his
grappling acumen and instincts to bring him out on top. It has
served him well for the most part, but his first Contender Series
appearance two years ago showed the limitations of his approach, as
he ended up underneath a mauling wrestler in
Mansur
Abdul-Malik one too many times and got his head pounded in.
This is an intriguing style matchup between two middleweights who
are far from polished products but have enough upside that both
could stick around the UFC for a while. There is certainly upset
potential here; Schultz is going to do his level best to drag Pinas
onto the ground, and if he manages to be the first to truly test
Pinas’ submission defense, we might find out that he doesn’t have
any. However, Pinas’ far superior power and accuracy on the feet,
combined with his tendency to try and get back up quickly if he’s
on the bottom on the ground or punch hard if he’s on top, mean that
all of Schultz’s best routes to victory are perilous. The pick is
Pinas by Round 1 KO.
Jump To »
Gandra vs. Medina
Chiasson vs. Perez
Quinonez vs. Moutinho
Silva de Andrade vs. Reyes
Tarin vs. Kareckaite
Silva vs. Marshall
Pinas vs. Schultz
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