As nice as it was for the Atlanta Falcons to beat the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams last season, and as encouraging as it was for them to win their last four games, it also showed something had to change.

Being the type of team that could beat the Bills and Rams yet finish 8-9 in one of the worst divisions in NFL history was a glaring sign of underachievement. Many teams might have stuck it out with head coach Raheem Morris after that final four-game winning streak. The Falcons rightfully wondered where that level of play had been all season and fired Morris. They hired Kevin Stefanski, who had just been fired by the Cleveland Browns, to replace him.

"At the end of the day, I didn't think we achieved the level that we're capable of," Falcons owner Arthur Blank said, via the team's site. "The expression that I often use is: Good is the enemy of great. I think we're capable of getting to another level."

The Falcons are a conundrum. They have some very talented players, including running back Bijan Robinson and receiver Drake London, who just signed a four-year, $141 million extension. They also have plenty of holes on offense around those stars. The defense was better last season but probably won't be good enough to carry the team where it wants to go. Things got murkier on that side of the ball when 2025 first-round draft pick James Pearce Jr. was charged with multiple felonies after Pearce allegedly stalked WNBA player Rickea Jackson and caused a collision as Pearce pursued Jackson in a car (those charges can be dropped if Pearce completes an intervention program, though he still could face NFL punishment).

And the quarterback situation went from promising to a complete mess in a year. The Falcons thought they were onto something with Michael Penix Jr. after a fairly good finish to the 2024 season. Then Penix struggled and his season came to an end when he suffered a knee injury that led to ACL reconstruction surgery, continuing his spotty health history dating back to college. The Falcons got Tua Tagovailoa cheaply as the Dolphins pay all but the veteran's minimum portion of his salary this season, but Tagovailoa's play has fallen off the past two seasons. It's worth the $1.2 million the Falcons are paying to see if Tagovailoa can be a reliable insurance policy, but it's not like Atlanta should expect much more.

It didn't help that the Falcons practically sat out of free agency and didn't have a first-round pick due to a 2025 draft day trade with the Rams that was ripped at the time and looks even worse now after Pearce's offseason. The Falcons signed only two outside free agents to more than $5 million total this offseason: kicker Nick Folk and punter Jake Bailey, who each got two-year, $9 million deals. Don't get too excited, Falcons fans.

Stefanski could be a good hire. He didn't ultimately succeed as Browns head coach, but that has been an impossible job for decades. Stefanski won two NFL Coach of the Year awards, and while that award is confounding at times, it shows he's a competent leader.

It wouldn't take much for the Falcons to stumble into a division title. Spoiler alert: We'll see all four NFC South teams pretty low on this countdown. There is enough talent on hand to achieve the modest goal of winning the NFL's worst division, especially if Penix is healthy and continues to grow.

But nothing seems bankable for the Falcons. Are they the team that went 4-0 to end the season or the one that was 4-9 to start it? Are Robinson, London and tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. enough to lead a better offense, or will lack of depth and quarterback issues drag them down? Is Stefanski the answer? What's the ceiling for the defense? How do things get better on a roster level after practically sitting out the offseason?

With all those questions, it's a good thing the Falcons don't play in a better division.

Offseason grade

The Falcons didn't have much salary cap space before free agency. But other teams were in a similar bind and managed to make some moves. Signing Kyle Pitts Sr. to a three-year, $54 million extension was logical and was practically the extent of the Falcons' significant free-agent moves. The Falcons signed a kicker and punter to matching two-year, $9 million deals and the rest of the additions were even cheaper deals on veterans looking for a chance, like offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor, running back Brian Robinson and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Some of those moves could work out, but nothing on paper moves the needle.

The NFL Draft class was thin because the Falcons made the impetuous decision to trade a 2026 first-round pick to the Rams to move up 20 spots from the second round and draft James Pearce Jr. in 2025. The pick Atlanta traded away ended up being 13th overall. The Falcons didn't draft until No. 48 when they took cornerback Avieon Terrell, the brother of Falcons star A.J. Terrell. Avieon might end up starting across from his brother because Atlanta has a big need there. The only other pick the Falcons made in the top 133 was third-round receiver Zachariah Branch, a tough evaluation because he is athletic but an overwhelming amount of his touches came at or behind the line of scrimmage. The Falcons lost linebacker Kaden Elliss and cornerback Dee Alford, and a good backup running back in Tyler Allgeier. New Falcons general manager Ian Cunningham clearly wanted to get the cap in order. But unless you're a huge fan of kicker Nick Folk or punter Jake Bailey, what other grade can you give this curiously quiet offseason?

Grade: F

Quarterback report

The first question in the Falcons' quarterback room is whether Michael Penix Jr. will be ready for the start of the season after ACL surgery in November. He was participating in the offseason program by mid-May, which is a good sign.

If Penix is ready, then the Falcons will have a decision to make.

Penix hasn't done enough in 12 starts to establish himself as the team's quarterback of the future. He hasn't been terrible, but the Falcons need more out of the eighth pick of the 2024 draft. Tagovailoa is an interesting case. He led the NFL in passer rating in 2022, passing yards in 2023 and completion percentage in 2024. But his play fell off the past two seasons as concussions became a big part of his NFL story. That's why Miami cut him, taking on an NFL record $99.2 million dead cap hit just to move on.

The Falcons have way more invested in Penix and that has to give him an edge if the competition is close. Atlanta is hoping one of their quarterbacks emerges as a solid starter.

Odds breakdown

From Yahoo's Ben Fawkes: "Either free-agent pickup Tua Tagovailoa or 2024 No. 8 overall pick Michael Penix Jr. will start at QB, but is either one a great option? Atlanta has a win total of 7.5 and surprisingly owns the worst odds (+375) of any team to win the NFC South. There are pieces on both sides of the ball, but the disastrous deal for James Pearce Jr. last year could set this roster back for years. The Falcons are currently projected to be underdogs in a staggering 15 games, including a Week 9 international game in Madrid against AFC darling Cincinnati. I like the under for Atlanta."

Yahoo's fantasy take

From Yahoo's Scott Pianowski: "Although Kyle Pitts Sr. grabbed the TE2 post last year after a fast finish, the market isn't expecting a repeat. He's currently the TE8 in Yahoo drafts, landing in the mid-70s overall. Many managers have been burned by Pitts in the past, which might explain the ADP trend. But Pitts is merely entering his age-26 season, the Falcons still employ a narrow target tree and new head coach Kevin Stefanski is known to feature tight ends in his scheming. I've had my ups and downs with Pitts before, too, but if he keeps this current price, I'm willing to draft him proactively." 

Stat to remember

The Falcons wasted one of the greatest single seasons in their franchise history, and one of the most productive seasons in NFL history too. Bijan Robinson was fantastic, gaining 2,298 yards from scrimmage. That's a Falcons record and the 12th best mark in NFL history. Of the 11 seasons ahead of him on the list, eight were either from Pro Football Hall of Famers or by players who are virtual locks to get in (Adrian Peterson, Christian McCaffrey). It's more yards from scrimmage than Saquon Barkley had in his magical 2024 season. Robinson was also the first player in NFL history to gain 1,400 rushing yards and 810 receiving yards in the same season, the Falcons said. Robinson's brilliance peaked in a Monday night win over the Rams in which he gained 229 total yards, and 190 of those yards came after first contact. That's the most in a game since ESPN began tracking the stat in 2009.

Robinson just turned 24 years old. It's surprising there hasn't been more talk about his extension; one reason the Falcons didn't spend too much in free agency is that Robinson's second contract will almost assuredly be the highest in NFL history for a running back. He has earned it. Robinson has a great argument as the best back in football and while he's just three years into his career, he's on a clear Hall of Fame path.

Burning question

Will Kevin Stefanski be the right fit?

Stefanski started his tenure with the Falcons by making two notable coordinator decisions. He hired Tommy Rees to run the offense and said Rees will call plays. Rees, who is 33 years old, has never called plays in the NFL. Stefanski said it's "a setup that I'm very, very comfortable with." Rees starts with an elite back in Bijan Robinson, a true No. 1 receiver in Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. coming off a resurgent season with 88 catches and 928 yards. There is not much beyond those three, but that trio might be enough.

Stefanski opted for continuity on defense. Jeff Ulbrich was brought back as defensive coordinator. Atlanta improved from 29th in defensive DVOA in 2024 to 12th last season, Ulbrich's first with the team. While the Falcons got good seasons from players like safety Xavier Watts, rookie edge rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., and linebacker Divine Deablo, there were no true stars on the defense last season. It was a group effort orchestrated by Ulbrich.

How those two hires fare will be huge for Stefanski in his first Falcons season. Stefanski has had good seasons but was an underwhelming 45-56 in his six years coaching the Browns. We will find out if Cleveland's situation was holding him back.

Best-case scenario

The Falcons are No. 26 in these rankings and it wouldn't surprise anyone if they are a division winner hosting a playoff game in January. The NFC South, everyone! But the Falcons could be more than just an 8-9 team winning a bad division this season. A year ago, there was excitement over Michael Penix Jr. after he had some promising moments as a rookie. He wasn't great last season but he has had just 12 starts. If Penix comes alive, or Tua Tagovailoa wins the job and plays like he did at his peak, there's enough talent on the roster to run away with the division. Especially if we find that going from Raheem Morris to Kevin Stefanski was a massive upgrade.

Nightmare scenario

The Falcons are a top-heavy roster, and that's always dicey with a team that wasn't very good last season. On offense, an injury to Bijan Robinson, Drake London or Kyle Pitts Sr. could derail the entire operation. The defense had a good growth season, but a unit without a single Pro Bowler and that had more personnel losses than gains in the offseason could take a step back. And the main reason the Falcons are ranked this low is a worrisome quarterback situation. Michael Penix Jr. can't stay healthy and has been underwhelming, and a team just paid nearly $100 million for Tua Tagovailoa to not play there anymore. Everything could align for the Falcons, but it seems like even the slightest disruptions could send them spiraling.

The crystal ball says

Sometimes, a team lets you know by its offseason activity where it think it stands. The 2025 Falcons were so optimistic that they traded a future first-round pick for help right away. This year's Falcons, despite playing in the NFL's most winnable division, spent almost nothing in free agency and weren't aggressive at all to add immediate help in the draft. That could be new GM Ian Cunningham and team president Matt Ryan getting things in order as they start their new jobs, but if the Falcons thought a big leap was possible they could have been more aggressive. There are too many questions, first of all at quarterback but also on the overall depth of the roster, to get too excited about the Falcons. Could they be a little better than this ranking and win the NFC South? Sure. But it looks like another year of mediocrity, at best.