The Global smartphone market is heading toward its toughest year in more than a decade, but Samsung appears set to emerge from the storm in a stronger position than most of its competitors.

According to Counterpoint Research’s latest forecast, global smartphone shipments are expected to fall 13.9 percent year-over-year in 2026, reaching just 1.08 billion units.

If accurate, that would mark the lowest annual shipment volume since 2013 and represents a sharper decline than the 12.4 percent contraction the firm projected earlier this year.

Samsung set to weather the worst downturn

While Samsung is not immune to broader market pressures, Counterpoint’s projections suggest the company is far better equipped than most competitors to navigate the downturn.

Samsung’s smartphone volumes are expected to decline by just 4 percent in 2026, dramatically outperforming the overall market’s nearly 14 percent contraction.

While the overall market shrinks, Samsung’s global smartphone share is expected to rise from 19 percent in 2025 to 21 percent in 2026.

Counterpoint forecasts Xiaomi will plunge 28% this year, while Transsion could see an even sharper 32% decline. With LPDDR4 supply projected to shrink by more than 40%, some ultra-affordable devices may no longer make economic sense.

Apple is expected to remain largely flat, thanks to its premium-focused portfolio and loyal customer base. Huawei stands out as the only major Chinese smartphone brand showing growth, posting a modest 1% increase in Q1.

When the industry’s worst downturn in more than a decade is expected to leave Samsung with a larger slice of the market than before, it becomes clear that scale, integration, and supply chain control are no longer just competitive advantages.

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