ESPN projections for Pac-12 football and how Colorado State will fare
The Pac-12 is back.
Not quite back like it never left, though, because this is a very new-look league. A bevy of Mountain West squads, one from the Sun Belt and two legacy Pac-12 teams join up to make the league.
It sets up for a fascinating, and important, 2026 college football season for the Pac-12.
How will the league shake out? Here's how ESPN sees the league with its preseason metrics and projections:
Who will compete for Pac-12 football title?
The Pac-12 rebuilt with the top teams from the Mountain West. Oregon State and Washington State were left over from the old iteration of the league and are now joined by five former MW members and one from the Sun Belt (Texas State).
The MW defectors won 13 of the last 14 Mountain West titles, led by Boise State's dominance.
So, who is expected to run the league as the Pac-12 relaunches in 2026?
Bill Connelly writes that Boise State is favored to do so, but San Diego State, Fresno State, Washington State, Texas State and Oregon State are all contenders in a league with not a ton of difference in quality top to bottom.
Boise State "is far and away the most proven entity in this new conference," Connelly writes. "Four teams are within a touchdown of second, however, and even CSU has a little bit of hope if the 'new coach brings tons of his former players with him' formula works out."
Is the Pac-12 a Power 5 conference?
The Pac-12 lost the Power 5 status when the league almost collapsed as everyone but Oregon State and Washington State left for elsewhere.
The league and its new members are fighting to regain that status, but the goal for Year 1 will be for the winner of the league to get into the College Football Playoff. Will that happen? Connelly likes the chances.
More: In battle of Pac-12 vs Mountain West, here's who won the league titles
He writes that the Pac-12 has the "best projected average SP+ rating of any conference in the Group of 6. It isn't a power conference, but it should be the best of the rest."
Is Colorado State set to improve under Jim Mora?
Connelly has CSU as the worst team in the league following a 2-10 season that saw Jay Norvell fired and Mora brought in to replace him.
The metrics from ESPN place CSU's conference win total at 2.5 games (the Rams will play eight Pac-12 contests) and 4.7 wins overall.
"That CSU was able to pull Mora back West was a reminder of the potential this job forever has," Connelly writes. "But the Rams certainly haven't shown much of that potential of late, enjoying just one winning season in eight years."
It's not all gloom, though. Connelly says Mora has done a "nice job of creating competition throughout most of the roster." Connelly thinks the offensive line might be a little too thin overall but has the addition of Quinton Harris (from TCU) as one of the top transfers in the league.
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Pac-12 conference projections
Here is how ESPN's SP+ metrics project the Pac-12 heading into the season:
- Boise State (38th overall in FBS)
- San Diego State (71)
- Fresno State (78)
- Washington State (85)
- Texas State (88)
- Oregon State (93)
- Utah State (97)
- Colorado State (100)
Sports reporter Kevin Lytle can be found on social media on X, Instagram and Threads @Kevin_Lytle and on Bluesky.
This article originally appeared on Fort Collins Coloradoan: Here's who ESPN projects as best Pac-12 college football teams