As the early ‘Uptober’ buzz fizzles and Bitcoin struggles to hold $110,000, the overall crypto market sentiment has seemingly taken a beating. According to online reports, market participants are disappointed with the recent performance, but some experts argue that this means the industry is “winning.”

Crypto Vibes Are ‘Sad’ Despite Industry Adoption

On Thursday, investor and analyst Will Clemente shared on X that “the vibes in the crypto groupchats are just sad.” He explained that investors seem “jaded, depressed, and defeated,” adding that they are “completely giving up” and switching to other asset classes after BTC’s performance this year.

Bitwise’s CEO, Hunter Horsley, weighed in on the matter, affirming that “Crypto natives are now in a multi-month bear market sentiment,” while the “off-Twitter” sentiment is the “best it’s ever been.”

Horsley detailed that the offline positive outlook is fueled by the notable decrease in regulatory risk, which has led to the recent spike in institutional adoption and mainstream recognition.

Notably, the second wave of crypto-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) started trading this week, with Bitwise’s Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) stealing the spotlight. Moreover, the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) trend, led by Strategy, continues to pour millions of dollars into cryptocurrencies.

“The market is changing,” the CEO asserted in his Friday X post, pointing out JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s recent approach shift. Dimon has been a long-time crypto skeptic, calling the flagship crypto a “Ponzi scheme” and dismissing it as “useless as a pet rock.” Nonetheless, he recently admitted that he was wrong and that crypto, stablecoins, and blockchain are “real.”

Is The Market ‘Boring’ Or Mature?

In a response to Clemente’s post, Nic Carter stated that the sentiment shift highlights a deeper truth about the market: the space has matured significantly. He explained that crypto is “boring” now because most of the questions and uncertainties that drove much of the historical volatility have been answered.

So many of the open questions have been answered, will stablecoins be allowed? yes. will we be banned? no. will we all go to jail for writing software? no. will we be incorporated into tradfi? yes. can tokens have cashflows and not be securities? Apparently. (…) There are still some unanswered questions, particularly around cash-flowing pseudoequity tokens, but we will probably get answers to those in the coming years.

He also argued that the crypto industry has been largely derisked as a technological substrate, bringing large corporations to adopt these tools, which shows that “crypto natives no longer control the narrative, there’s more serious businesses (which don’t require tokens), there’s less chaos, the whole space has matured significantly.”

To Carter, this means that the industry has “won.” However, he noted that clarity and maturity come with less excitement, as “winning means the inherent volatility in the space is highly reduced! This applies to both startups and the underlying assets themselves.”

“So if you’re sad that volatility has been dampened smile through the tears. it means we won,” he concluded.

Despite the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s announcement of a 25-basis-point rate cut, Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped nearly 4% in the past 24 hours, losing its local range low for the first time in a week. Some analysts have warned that this week’s close is crucial for the flagship crypto’s short-term performance.

Bitcoin Price Eyes Crucial Weekly Close

On Thursday, Bitcoin dropped below the recently reclaimed $110,000 area, hitting a one-week low of $106,700. Notably, the cryptocurrency has been trading within the $108,000-$120,000 price range since July, but has failed to reclaim the range highs after the early October correction.

Amid this performance, Ted Pillows suggested that the market volatility was expected, as BTC has shown a similar price action since the start of Q3. The analyst explained that Bitcoin has dropped 6%-8% after the last three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, but it has also made a new all-time high (ATH) before the next one.

According to the chart, BTC’s price reached its local bottom 5-9 days after the meeting, quickly recovering from the drop and rallying to new highs in the coming weeks. As price retests the $106,000 area, Ted predicted that a repeat of the same playbook could happen.

However, he warned that Bitcoin must reclaim the $113,500 in the coming days to prevent a larger pullback. “A weekly close below that level will increase the likelihood of a bigger correction,” the analyst explained.

Similarly, Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin must close the week above the $114,500 to turn this level back into support. He noted that after the recent performance, a volatile retest of this level would be “perfectly fine” as long price closes above this crucial level at the end of the week.

Confirming the Range Low of ~$114k as support would confirm re-entry into the Range, kickstart consolidation within the Range again, and enable a move across it towards the Range High of ~$119000 (red) in an effort to breakout from it and challenge $120k+ once again.

Is BTC’s End-Of-Year Rally Still On?

Michaël van de Poppe affirmed that $112,000 is the next key area to break before a new ATH, as it has been a crucial resistance level in the daily timeframe for the past few weeks. Per the post, a breakout from this area could set the base for a retest of the $119,000-$120,000 zone.

On the contrary, a rejection from this level could send the price toward the $103,000 mark or lower, he warned. “I do think we’ll see a new ATH in November,” the market watcher added.”

Meanwhile, Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that BTC is “just playing ping pong” between its key levels and will continue to move within its range until one of the boundaries is successfully broken.

The trader added that November is one of Bitcoin’s best months based on historical performance, which could suggest that a price rally could be near. Notably, 8 out of 12 Novembers have closed in green, with a median return of 10.82%, according to CoinGlass data.

Moreover, he noted that the last two months of the year are when the three previous bull runs topped and the past two bear markets bottomed. “Whether it’s on the bullish or bearish side, volatility and big market pivots have been the theme into the end of the year,” he concluded.