Every stone gets overturned by NFL coaching staffs when they are breaking down opponents, especially late in the season. With a full regular season and crop of playoff games (plus previous matchups between coordinators, units with similar schemes, etc.) to sift through, coaches can get hyper-specific and create layered game plans that attempt to turn small weaknesses into something that cripples the opponent.

Playoff game plans, especially for the Super Bowl, are so entertaining to predict and then review afterward, at least for a sicko like myself. Big plays need to be created in big games. And the big game encourages coaching staffs to empty the clip with staple concepts, gadget plays and tendency breakers.

The Super Bowl is also about the props, of course. And through my film and data study, I wanted to share some of my favorite wagers and how the game plans of the Patriots and Seahawks can lead to a potential payday. Or at least some personal entertainment outside of Bad Bunny and the annual onslaught of commercials. (I’m already primed for those “Toy Story 5” and “Scream 7” trailers.)

To the props!

All betting lines via BetMGM at time of writing.

When the Seahawks have the ball

Seahawks -0.5 first quarter (+100)

The Seahawks were the most complete team in the NFL this season and ran roughshod on many of their opponents. Numerous times they were able to overwhelm the opposition right out of the gate with their suffocating defense, explosive offense and gamebreaking special teams.

The Seahawks’ offense ranks fifth in EPA per play and Sam Darnold is first in EPA per dropback on the first 15 plays of the game. The Patriots’ defense tends to struggle on opening drives before adjusting and clamping down; the Pats rank 27th in EPA per play and 29th in success rate this season while giving up an explosive pass rate of 23.4% during those first 15 plays of the game. (On a brighter note for New England fans, the Patriots improve to the second-best defense in terms of EPA and a top-10 defense in terms of success rate after the opening 15 plays. Vrabel and staff adjust very well.)

While I think the Patriots are very live in this game and that their offense can have some success running early, I think Seattle jumps out to a lead before New England settles in.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba UNDER 94.5 yards receiving (-115)

Cooper Kupp OVER 3.5 receptions (+130)

Cooper Kupp most receiving yards in the game (+1450)

I know JSN is what makes the Seahawks’ offense go. You know JSN is what makes the Seahawks’ offense go. And I can safely assume the New England Patriots’ players and coaches know JSN is what makes the Seahawks’ offense go. Every type of split, whether it’s by coverage type (man or zone), field position, personnel grouping or down and distance, JSN leads the NFL in target share by a healthy margin.

Two things the Patriots have increased over the back half of the season have been man coverage and blitzing. They’ve been the blitz-happiest defense on late downs since their Week 14 bye and the second blitz-happiest defense since Week 10. They have leaned into variations of Cover 0 (which is also man coverage) when blitzing, heating up quarterbacks and unleashing their talented cornerback duo to play aggressively against receivers. Against late-down blitzes this season, Sam Darnold targeted JSN a whopping 41.3% of the time (with zero gains of 20 or more yards). Against Cover 0 and Cover 1, Darnold targeted JSN 36.1% of the time (for a scorching 4.41 yards per route and 21.6% first down per route rate).

[Get more Seahawks news: Seattle team feed]

So, why am I looking at the under for JSN’s receiving yards while also eyeing Cooper Kupp props? Because while I think the Patriots will keep blitzing Darnold on late downs due to his subpar play (and lowered aggression) in those circumstances, one of my working theories for this game is that the Patriots lean into “1 Double” coverage against JSN — either in a traditional way like Bill Belichick’s Patriots defenses of yesteryear, or out of quarters shells that allow both safeties to “bracket” particular receivers on the offense.

“1 Double” is exactly what it sounds like: Two defenders, typically the team’s CB2 and a safety, will play with inside and outside leverage against the No. 1 receiving threat on the other team, with CB1 freed up to then take the second most dangerous receiving option. It would make it tough to pepper JSN frequently and turn his receiving into more of a boom-or-bust type of performance (double moves are a classic way to loosen up these double-teams). This is a classic “make other players beat you” type of game plan, and thus Darnold will have to find some of the secondary pass catchers for the Seahawks with his passes.

Brooke Sutton via Getty Images

To me that’s Kupp, tight end A.J. Barner and wide receiver Rashid Shaheed. I can envision frequent underneath forays to Kupp that might not yield big plays, but turn into steady efficient gains with a good crop of catches. While Kupp having the most receiving yards in the game is more a dart throw wager (with the odds reflecting that), this can definitely turn into a game where Darnold has to get beyond a hyperfixation with JSN.

Last point about Darnold and the blitz: How Darnold handles the Patriots’ aggression on passing downs will swing the game from a Seattle blowout to a New England muckfest. The Seahawks rank 31st this regular season on third-and-7 or more yards to go, and against late-down blitzes Darnold ranks 25th in EPA per dropback, 28th in explosive pass rate, 30th in air yards per attempt, 28th in interception rate, and dead last in batted ball rate (among 32 quarterbacks this season with 250 or more pass attempts). If the Patriots can keep a lid on Kenneth Walker III on the ground and create frequent “true” passing situations, this game could be a little funky.

George Holani OVER 9.5 rushing yards (-115)

Speaking of Walker: The Seahawks’ run offense has improved over the back half of the season and it was really rounding into form until Zach Charbonnet was lost to injury in the playoffs. Walker is going to be tasked with carrying another large share of touches from the backfield, but it could be a slog against a Patriots defense that ranks in the top 10 in terms of explosive runs allowed and yards after contact allowed. Those numbers are even better with Milton Williams, ranking 12th in EPA per rush and seventh in yards before contact per run with Williams on the field this season, and 25th and 27th, respectively, with him off.

I can see Holani racking up a couple of carries to help Walker’s workload. Perhaps a passing down run play with Holani on the field helps rack up some cheap yardage to cover this total.

Milton Williams 1 sack (+200)

Milton Williams 2+ sacks (+1100)

Williams is one of the most important players in this game. A star in every sense of the word, Williams has now been dominant in a full-time role over the past two seasons with the Eagles and Patriots.

To get the Seahawks off their game is to make Sam Darnold spiral into negative plays, whether it be taking a sack or turning the ball over. Darnold has been so much better this season in terms of taking sacks and limiting mistakes, but he is still susceptible to bonehead moments. The weakest part of the Seahawks’ offense — nay, team — is their center and right guard duo of Jalen Sundell and Anthony Bradford. And the strength of the Patriots’ defense (along with their cornerbacks) is the defensive linemen at the tip of the spear: Williams, Christian Barmore and Khyiris Tonga. Those Seahawks positions have allowed the second-highest quick pressure rates (under 2.5 seconds) in the NFL on passing downs (second-and-7 or more, third-and-3 or more, fourth down) this season.

This is one of the few areas where the Patriots have a clear matchup advantage on every snap, and Williams could capitalize and swing the whole game.

JSN OVER 0.5 yard rushing yards (+290)

Super Bowl! Can’t hold anything back! Although Rashid Shaheed is the player Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak might dial up a designed run for, I could also see JSN getting a manufactured touch to help open things up and give the Patriots another wrinkle to deal with. Playing off of my earlier theory, aligning the receiver in the backfield is a great way to counter double-coverage, and Kubiak has aligned JSN in the backfield in recent games to much success (including a touchdown against the Rams). Whether it’s a jet sweep or a true handoff as a change-up, JSN could rack up a cheapie prop win at plus money.

A.J. Barner anytime TD scorer YES (+240)

The red zone designs have been some of the most fun parts of the Seahawks’ offense this season, and given the Patriots’ defense potentially focusing on JSN as well as the Seahawks’ own love for bootleg pass concepts, that could leave an opportunity for Barner to take advantage. The Seahawks have shown that they’ll dial up plays for Barner, who has had a true breakout year as a two-way blocker and receiver for Seattle. Look for him to get another on a potential play-action design play that takes advantage of the Patriots’ linebackers playing downhill.

And while we’re on tight ends, Elijah Arroyo props are also a fun dart throw. He’s +1050 for an anytime touchdown, and OVER 0.5 reception is -135. His athleticism could provide the Seahawks another mismatch they could exploit. Kubiak has isolated Arroyo at times this season against linebackers, and it could be another part of the menu for Seattle’s offense as he works his way back from a knee injury.

When the Patriots have the ball

Hunter Henry OVER 3.5 receptions (-115)

Hunter Henry OVER 38.5 yards receiving (-120)

The “relative” (quotes are necessary) weakest part of the Seahawks’ passing defense is against tight ends. They rank 16th in DVOA (per FTN) against tight end targets. They have allowed the fifth-most yards per game to tight ends as well, but that is because of the Seahawks’ propensity to force underneath checkdowns as their coverage mucks up passing lanes downfield. Offenses have had some success in getting into empty formations and targeting tight ends against Seahawks’ underneath defenders (typically not for big gains).

Henry generally gets a steady diet of targets from Drake Maye, and I could see this playing out the same way in between Maye’s forays down the field. I lean more toward the receptions prop than the yards, but look for Henry (and Austin Hooper) to get a steady peppering.

Jack Westover OVER 0.5 yard receiving (+280)

This is one of my favorite random props of the game. Westover is the Patriots fullback. He has one career regular-season catch (for zero yards) and one catch this postseason. I could see the Patriots trying to put Westover on the field to threaten the Seahawks’ lighter personnel, even splitting him out to create a formation advantage with a receiver (likely Stefon Diggs) in the slot to work against a linebacker and “waste” a cornerback on Westover on the outside (which is how his one catch this postseason against the Chargers happened).

Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald is one of the best game planners in football and the Seattle coaches do a great job of playing off of opponent tendencies. Perhaps a target to the fullback will really throw everyone for a loop.

Most receiving yards in the game: Kayshon Boutte (+1200)

Longest reception: Demario Douglas OVER 7.5 yards (-118)

If you’re feeling frisky: Kyle Williams OVER 0.5 yards (+160), Kyle Williams OVER 0.5 receptions (+155)

Anytime TDs: Demario Douglas (+600), Kyle Williams (+1000)

All of these are related more or less to the same point: The Seahawks’ back seven and coverage have a clear advantage over the Patriots’ pass catchers. They play top-down and truly put a cap on the offense and dare quarterbacks to hang in the pocket and work through progressions to find a way to beat their coverage.

The quarterbacks that have the most success this season against the Seahawks’ defense (Matthew Stafford, Cam Ward, Baker Mayfield) all were able to create explosive plays by attacking downfield and/or creating out of structure and prying open a hole in their vice-like defense. While launching throws down the field can lead to some inconsistencies, it can also create breathing room for the rest of the operation.

[Get more Patriots news: New England team feed]

While Maye isn’t throwing to Puka Nacua or Davante Adams, there are other designs the Rams used that the Patriots could look at too. In Week 16 when Adams was hurt, the Rams used the speedy Xavier Smith to attack downfield from the slot, something that fits to exactly how the Patriots have liked to use DeMario “Pop” Douglas. While he might not rack up a ton of targets to score that TD or get over 7.5 yards for his longest reception, there is a path if offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has Maye keep trying to beat the Seahawks over the top.

Same with Kyle Williams wagers. Williams and Maye seem to be a bit off this season when trying to connect, but they still have hit a few big plays (and Maye even attempted more in the playoffs, like against the Texans). While Williams might be set up for a deep go-ball or perhaps even a runway route like the one he scored against the Buccaneers in November, he just needs one catch to cash and I could see the Patriots trying to use his speed somehow. So he could be worth a splash if you’re feeling frisky.

Kevin Sabitus via Getty Images

That leaves us Boutte, who has been one of the most improved players in football this season. Boutte isn’t a speedster, but he’s still a downfield threat because of his strength and body control. The Seahawks will absolutely be focused on Diggs, who could get swallowed up in the slot against this defense. But if Maye stays aggressive in this game, Boutte could benefit by coming down with sideline throws (look for a hole shot against the Seahawks’ Cover 2 or Cover 6) and perhaps one downfield excursion connecting. You could look at his receiving or receptions line, but Boutte feels like a big day or something more middling. Hence the most receiving yards play.

Uchenna Nwosu sack (+275)

Rookie Will Campbell has struggled with length this season, and the Seahawks’ front is long. You could look at a few of the Seahawks’ defenders as valid sack plays, like DeMarcus Lawrence and Leonard Williams. I went with Nwosu, who has been productive and matches up well against Campbell. Odds being almost 3-to-1 helps, too.

Super Bowl game bets

Total passing attempts in the game OVER 63.5 (+100)

Both defenses attempt to make quarterbacks methodical, which could lead to plenty of underneath throws. There’s also a non-zero chance of a Seahawks romp, which could juice up the pass attempts for a trailing Drake Maye. I like Maye’s over completions wager by itself. This is a way to spread the love.

Method of first turnover: Interception (+200)

An interception returned for TD (+750)

Two aggressive quarterbacks going against sound defenses with potential leakiness up front? A turnover or two is definitely not out of the question. Now whether it’s Sam Darnold or Drake Maye is anyone’s guess, so let’s get some plus money on the game’s first turnover being an interception. And why not a return touchdown for even more entertainment?

Octopus to be scored by any player (+1500)

I mean, come on. You get to say “octopus” and you get to collect money as you do so. Let’s see if a player can accomplish one of the more fun feats of a touchdown and 2-point conversion in succession. LETS GO OCTO!