Login
The Lottery Wheel: A radical, complete and long-overdue fix for NBA tanking
Tanking in the NBA is getting out of hand. Jaren Jackson Jr. made his debut with the Utah Jazz and had 22 points through three quarters. Then he sat down and watched a 15-point lead disappear. So did Lauri Markkanen. And so did Jusuf Nurkic. Utah lost. That was the point.
Every year, tanking happens. But the scale of it this season is staggering, and it's undermining the product. The Jazz are not alone in their mission to intentionally lose. The Grizzlies traded away Jackson and aren't rushing back Zach Edey or Ja Morant. The Pacers rested six veterans in a loss against the Jazz last week. The Bucks are keeping Giannis Antetokounmpo away from the court for as long as possible. Trae Young and Anthony Davis haven't played yet for the Wizards. The Bulls flipped half the team for a nonsensical roster with eight guards on it. The Nets and Kings aren't trying to win. Neither are the Mavericks. Even the team that just hit the jackpot is back in the tank.
That’s nine teams. We’re not even at the All-Star break. This is happening despite a 2019 lottery reform that flattened the odds so the three worst teams share a 14% chance at the top pick. That was supposed to fix things. It hasn't. No team is tanking to the extremes of the Process Sixers. But more teams are tanking into the top 10, because odds in the middle of the lottery now have a real chance of jumping into the top four like the Mavericks did one year ago, leaping from 11th to first to take Cooper Flagg. Since the 2019 reform, 11 of the 28 top-four picks have gone to teams with seventh-or-worse odds. Under the new rules, the NBA has matched decades of lottery chaos in just seven years.
That's one reason tanking has reached this scale. The other? An absolutely stacked 2026 draft class. There are at least three players worthy of the first pick: Kansas guard Darryn Peterson, BYU forward AJ Dybantsa, and Duke big Cam Boozer. Even beyond them, the rest of the top 10 is stacked. Executives believe this draft has a chance to be historic.
“What’s happening is largely a byproduct of this draft class,” said one general manager of a playoff team. “But that doesn’t make it right. The league office needs to make an example out of someone. That's how you send a message.”
Adam Silver could punish a tanking team if he wanted with a massive fine or by stripping a pick. But tanking lives in gray areas. Is Utah resting stars in the fourth quarter more punishable than Washington keeping its new acquisitions in street clothes? The Jazz got fined $100,000 last year for resting Markkanen. In 2023, the Mavericks got hit for $750,000 for tanking out of the play-in and into the lottery. But teams treat those fines as a tax for better draft odds. The NBA's draft system directly rewards losing, and as long as that incentive exists, front offices will exploit it. Enforcement becomes whack-a-mole.
[Subscribe to Yahoo Sports NBA on YouTube]
Plenty of half-measures have been floated over the years — wins-based odds, multi-year standings formulas, tournaments for lottery teams — but every one of them still ties record to draft position, which means every one of them can be gamed.
Is tanking inevitable? What if you could design a system that completely severs the link between losing and draft position? Here’s an idea: I call it the Lottery Wheel.
The basics of the Lottery Wheel
The premise is simple: remove a team’s record from the draft equation entirely. Use predetermined lottery odds assigned years in advance to every team. Those odds rotate annually. This system retains randomness through a lottery draw, and those odds would remain tradable, which would create an entirely new market for teams to rebuild without needing to lose on purpose.
The Lottery Wheel works by dividing the NBA's 30 teams into five tiers of six teams each. Every tier is assigned a percentage of the total lottery odds, and those odds are distributed equally among the six teams within that tier.
All 30 teams would be eligible for the lottery, not just the 14 teams that miss the playoffs. Why? Because if only non-playoff teams are eligible, you recreate a tanking incentive at the margins. Under any 14-team lottery in which all playoff teams are excluded, a team on the bubble has a genuine reason to lose its way out of the playoffs to retain lottery position.
Before the system launches, the NBA would seed every team into its starting position on the wheel based on cumulative record, with the worst teams selecting first. Once every team has its spot, the wheel locks in and rotates automatically.
The tiers would rotate on a five-year cycle, meaning every team passes through every tier exactly once over five years. The rotation is staggered — Tier 1, then Tier 3, then Tier 5, then Tier 2, then Tier 4 — so that no team ever has back-to-back premium years. Everyone knows where they'll be. Records are irrelevant. Odds are determined solely by which tier the wheel assigned to you that year. There is literally zero incentive to lose.
The Lottery Wheel’s odds
The NBA’s current lottery implementation talks about odds in the context of 1,000 combinations assigned to teams. For simplicity, the Lottery Wheel could use 600 combinations to evenly distribute odds within each tier:
Tier 1: 40 combinations per team (240 total)
Tier 2: 25 combinations per team (150 total)
Tier 3: 18 combinations per team (108 total)
Tier 4: 11 combinations per team (66 total)
Tier 5: 6 combinations per team (36 total)
A Tier 1 team has roughly a 6.7% chance at the No. 1 pick. That's the best seat at the table, but it's less than half of the 14% the current system gives the worst team. Even Tier 5 teams carry a 1% chance, which is comparable to what the 13th-worst team gets under today's rules. No tier is a dead year.
Every team would receive 40, 25, 18, 11, and six combinations over the five-year cycle. That's exactly 100 per team. The system is perfectly equitable by design. No franchise is advantaged or disadvantaged over time. The only variable is which years your premium odds fall.
How the order is determined
The top six picks are determined by a weighted lottery draw. All 30 teams are in the pool, and their odds are based on their tier assignment, plus whatever odds were acquired via trade. Each pick is drawn individually.
Here’s how those odds look:
Tier | Combos | #1 Odds | Top 3 Odds | Top 6 Odds |
Tier 1 | 40 | 6.7% | 19.5% | 37.5% |
Tier 2 | 25 | 4.2% | 12.6% | 25.2% |
Tier 3 | 18 | 3% | 9.1% | 18.8% |
Tier 4 | 11 | 1.8% | 5.7% | 11.8% |
Tier 5 | 6 | 1% | 3.1% | 6.6% |
Picks seven through 30 are slotted by tier. After the lottery draws the top six, the remaining teams fill in by tier order: all remaining Tier 1 teams go first, then Tier 2, then Tier 3, and so on. Those picks could be determined by randomizing their placement with a mini-lottery, similar to a reform idea presented by Boston Celtics executive Mike Zarren, which helped inspire my first Wheel concept published over a decade ago.
The second round would follow the same tier-based structure for every pick in the round, with placement randomized within each tier.
You might be thinking: A 6.7% chance seems kinda low for Tier 1 teams. True. But because of how slotting works, a Tier 1 team's floor is the 7-12 range. That's a lottery pick in today's system.
Owners of bad teams will ask: “Why would I vote for a system that stops rewarding me for being terrible?” But the Lottery Wheel shifts the rebuilding engine from losing games to winning trades.
The trade market would change
Under the current system, teams trade future draft picks. With the Lottery Wheel, odds would also be tradable. And that changes everything. Draft capital would also have a known, quantifiable value attached to it. It turns draft capital into a liquid currency. That's a fundamentally different rebuilding engine for teams trading away or acquiring odds.
Here's an example: It's the 2036 trade deadline. Toronto is at the top of the standings and in its Tier 2 year for the draft. That means Toronto has 25 combinations, a 4.2% shot at the first pick and a 25.2% chance at a top-six pick. In today’s NBA, a contender’s first is usually a pick in the 20s and rarely the centerpiece of a rebuild trade. But under the Lottery Wheel, suddenly a contender's pick has value. And New Orleans, a non-contender in its Tier 5 year, has a player that Toronto desires. So the Pelicans acquire that pick from the Raptors to increase their odds, and the Raptors get a player to compete for a title.
That's an approach that doesn't exist in the current system, and it's the kind of transaction that would replace tanking as the primary engine of rebuilding.
The honest problems
I’m not going to pretend this system is flawless. It isn’t. Let me address the biggest concerns head-on.
1. Chronically bad teams lose their safety net
This is the most legitimate objection. Under the current system, if you’re terrible for seven straight years, you get seven straight years of great odds. There at least appears to be a path out for terrible teams. Whereas, with the Lottery Wheel, you get one Tier 1 year, and in my proposal those odds are only 6.7%.
“You’re asking bad teams to give up the one thing that makes being bad tolerable,” said an executive who heard my proposal.
Fair point. But the current system doesn't necessarily help chronically bad teams either. Only one team with under 20 wins (Minnesota in 2020) has actually secured the top overall pick since the rules were changed in 2019. The most common outcome for the teams with the best odds? The fifth pick. This has happened seven times for the 21 teams that have had 14% odds. In other words, the NBA has already effectively removed the safety net. And unlike today, a bad team doesn't have to stay bad to improve its position. It can acquire better odds through trades at any point in the cycle, or simply get lucky in any given year. Even Tier 5 teams have a shot at the top six.
2. A contender could win the first pick
Yup. It's possible. But that's already possible under the current system, with the Thunder holding the rights to an unprotected first courtesy of the Clippers. In 2017, we saw the Celtics land the first pick with a pick they acquired from the Nets.
The lottery is inherently unpredictable. And so is the draft. Great players can be found anywhere. The Lottery Wheel makes it more of a regular thing for good teams to get high picks, but the question is whether it's better for randomness to exist within a system that incentivizes winning or one that incentivizes losing. If the price of eliminating tanking is that sometimes a great team lucks into a great player, that's a price worth paying.
The modern day draft is no longer “compensation for being bad.” It's simply how new talent enters the league. But losing is still rewarded because of the probability of moving up. That needs to change. And if a contender landing in Tier 1 feels like too much of an advantage — between the lottery odds and the guaranteed slotting floor of picks seven through 12 — the league could simply expand the weighted draw beyond six picks to soften that edge.
3. The known draft class problem
Everyone in the basketball world has a rough sense of which draft classes are loaded three to four years out. It’s not an exact science, of course. But a team whose Tier 1 year falls in a weak class gets unlucky through no fault of its own.
This was one of the classic criticisms of the Zarren “wheel” idea: if teams know in advance when they’ll be positioned well, elite prospects can time their draft entry to land in preferred situations. With modern NIL and two-year college stays on the horizon, that dynamic becomes even more plausible.
4. Expansion breaks the math
The NBA is almost certainly expanding to 32 teams at some point in the 2030s. Thirty divides cleanly into five tiers of six, but 32 doesn’t. The league would need to adjust to either four tiers of eight, or vice versa, or have tiers with uneven group sizes.
5. Some teams are still going to stink
Even if draft incentive disappears, teams will still protect assets with load management and minutes limits, and still prioritize development over short-term wins, and still make financially motivated choices by ducking the tax and dumping salaries. So yes, the Lottery Wheel removes draft-driven tanking, but it does not magically create 30 teams playing like it’s Game 7 every night.
Every one of those problems is an edge case, an optics concern, or something patchable with rules tweaks. But the numbers and percentages are adjustable. The structure is the point. The core mechanic is simple: your record has nothing to do with your draft position.
Realistically, a system like this couldn’t take effect until the 2030s. Teams have already traded picks over the next seven years under the existing rules. This is around the time when expansion is expected. Restructuring the draft alongside expansion would give the league a natural window to start from scratch with enormous benefits.
The benefits of the Lottery Wheel
With all 30 teams in the pool, you'd see teams on the playoff bubble like the Bucks, Bulls, Grizzlies, and Mavericks all still competing for a spot this year if their odds weren’t tied to being in the lottery.
More games would have meaning, making the regular season matter more. You would not see teams throwing out idiotic lineups or coaches installing bad game plans meant to increase their chances of losing. Instead, the focus shifts to winning games and developing players.
The Lottery Wheel also changes the conversation around resting players. The league's player participation policy would still exist since stars should play in marquee games. But the league would no longer have to guess whether a team is resting a player or tanking. That suspicion disappears. This is important not just for optics but for the genuine integrity of the league. The NBA has fully embraced sports betting and is making money off fans betting on games. Games that some teams are intentionally losing. The league can’t partner with sportsbooks and profit off fan engagement while allowing teams to deliberately lose.
The on-court product improves, and so does the off-court spectacle. This is a bigger, better TV product than the current four-pick drawing involving only non-playoff teams. With the Lottery Wheel system, every fan base in the league is watching because their team has skin in the game. Drawing only the top six picks keeps the truly franchise-altering picks subject to chance, while letting the tier structure do its work from pick seven onward.
No system is perfect. The Lottery Wheel has edge cases and implementation questions that would need to be worked through. But the question facing the NBA isn't whether a new system would be flawless. It's whether it would be better than what we have.
Fans are paying the price. Buying tickets days in advance is a gamble when you don’t know if the stars you’re paying to see will actually play. The league knows this is an issue, which is one reason why they created the NBA Cup (to give the early part of the season more meaning) and the play-in tournament (to make the playoffs more attainable for more teams). The NBA is an entertainment product, and it’s not just competing with other sports leagues anymore. It’s competing with everything: Netflix, YouTube, every other piece of content fighting for attention. The games need to matter.
The league’s open-mindedness for experimentation to improve that product is admirable. But the flattened odds have failed at influencing teams to care more about putting the best team on the floor every night of the long season. Nine teams are tanking before the All-Star break. Others will join them in the weeks ahead. The problem isn’t going away. The league needs to stop tinkering and start reimagining.
"You won't see that this year," Jazz general manager Austin Ainge said in June when asked about Utah’s tanking approach. He lied. And until the NBA stops rewarding teams for losing, they all will.
