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Bitcoin is preparing for high volatility as the US releases its January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data at 8:30 AM ET. With inflation expected to be around 2.5% year-over-year, traders across the crypto market are closely watching whether the print comes in hot, cool, or in line with forecasts.

Bitcoin Price has increasingly reacted to macroeconomic data, especially inflation. The reason is simple. CPI shapes expectations around Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, and rate expectations influence the US dollar, bond yields, and overall liquidity. When liquidity tightens, Bitcoin often faces pressure. When liquidity improves, BTC tends to benefit.

What Markets Expect From January Inflation Data

Wall Street estimates suggest CPI will come in at 0.26% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year, slightly down from December’s 2.7% annual reading. Core CPI is expected at 0.34% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year.

However, the unusually wide range in core inflation forecasts, between 0.25% and 0.42%, shows there is significant uncertainty. Seasonal adjustments and tariff-related pricing effects are adding complexity to this release.

The previous hot CPI print in December led to a strong dollar, rising Treasury yields, and a 5% to 8% drop in Bitcoin. In contrast, a softer inflation reading in November supported a 2% to 3% rebound in BTC price. This pattern highlights how sensitive crypto markets are to inflation surprises.

Why the U.S. Report Today Matters for Bitcoin Price

Inflation data directly impacts expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Higher inflation typically reduces the chances of near-term rate cuts. That strengthens the US dollar index (DXY) and pushes bond yields higher. Both factors tend to weigh on risk assets like Bitcoin.

Lower inflation does the opposite. It increases the probability of rate cuts, weakens the dollar, lowers yields, and improves risk appetite. In such conditions, Bitcoin often sees quick upside moves. Crypto markets usually react within seconds of the CPI release.

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Inflation Above 2.5%

If CPI comes in above 2.5%, especially with a strong monthly reading near or above 0.4%, markets may view it as confirmation that the Federal Reserve will delay rate cuts. Bond yields could spike and the dollar could rally sharply.

In this scenario, Bitcoin may struggle to hold the $65,500 support level. A breakdown below that area could open the door to a move toward $60,000, particularly if liquidity below recent lows gets swept during a volatility spike.

Inflation Below 2.5%

If inflation prints below expectations, especially with monthly CPI at or below 0.2%, traders may quickly price in higher odds of rate cuts. That would likely push the dollar lower and ease pressure on risk assets.

Bitcoin could then move toward the $68,500 to $70,000 range, where a cluster of short positions may add fuel to the rally. A 2% to 5% upward move shortly after the release would not be unusual in a softer inflation environment.

Inflation In Line With Estimates

If CPI lands exactly at 2.5%, the initial reaction may be less dramatic. Bitcoin could trade in a range between $66,000 and $68,000 as markets shift focus back to broader economic concerns, including employment data and growth trends.

An in-line print often leads to short-term volatility followed by consolidation, rather than a clear breakout or breakdown.

Inflation Still Above Target

Even if January inflation shows slight moderation, the broader trend remains important. The United States has now spent six consecutive years with inflation running above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. While long-term inflation expectations remain relatively stable, persistent price pressure continues to complicate the policy outlook.

Today’s CPI release could define Bitcoin’s short-term direction. A hotter-than-expected print may push BTC toward the lower end of its range, while a cooler reading could revive momentum toward $70,000. As always, inflation data remains one of the strongest macro drivers for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market.

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