With the fresh fantasy baseball season approaching, it’s time to get you some tiered rankings from my Shuffle Up series. Use these for salary cap drafts, straight drafts, keeper decisions or merely a view of how the position ebbs and flows. The infield started last week and wrapped on Monday; now, we head to the outfield. The pitchers will follow later this week.

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(Shohei Ohtani — batter version — and Marcell Ozuna only qualify at the utility spot; I have included them in the outfield.)

The numbers are unscientific in nature and meant to reflect where talent clusters and drops off. Assume a 5x5 scoring system, as usual, and away we go.

More Tiered Rankings

• Catcher

• First Base

• Second Base

• Shortstop

• Third Base

• Outfield

• Starting Pitcher

• Relief Pitcher

The Big Tickets

• $48 Aaron Judge

• $48 *Shohei Ohtani

• $46 Juan Soto

• $42 Julio Rodríguez

• $41 Kyle Tucker

• $39 Ronald Acuña Jr.

• $37 Corbin Carroll

• $36 Fernando Tatís Jr.

• $35 Jackson Chourio

• $34 Kyle Schwarber

• $33 Brent Rooker

• $32 James Wood

You’re welcome to break the Judge/Ohtani tie any way you like. They’ll obviously go 1-2 in some order in most leagues. Judge is three years older, but Ohtani also carries the strain of his side pitching assignments. Both men are supported by deep lineups behind them. Ohtani’s 59 steals from two years ago proved to be an outlier; he did it for fun once, but probably now recognizes it doesn’t make sense to run that aggressively in the regular season. More than any other club in baseball, the Dodgers start each year with October health in mind.

Announcer Keith Hernandez has said for years that any ballplayer could probably steal 15 bases or so if he merely put in the effort. Soto took it a step further, leading the National League with 38 swipes in 42 attempts, after seven full seasons of station-to-station baseball. Even if Soto’s steals take a reasonable step back, he’s a multi-category monster entering his age-27 season. The timing could be right for his first MVP year.

Schwarber is utility-only in some formats, outfield-eligible in others. All I know is, he’s a screaming value in Round 2. The power is elite, the run production is excellent and he hasn’t been a major batting average drain for two years. He could be a zero in the steals column, but he can steal 10 if he wants (last year, he wanted to). The leadoff spot maximizes the volume. I will make sure I have some Schwarber shares this summer. 

Fantasy baseball sages Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf will remind us that it’s somewhat risky to pay up for a fantasy baseball pick who’s starting a big contract and on a new team. It’s also been frustrating to see Tucker navigate injuries the last two years. On the plus side, Tucker is still just 29 and he’s now insulated by the Los Angeles lineup, one of the deepest in baseball. And given the star-power in L.A. and the reasonable expectation that the Dodgers are already in the playoffs, it’s not like Tucker arrives in camp with absurd pressure on his shoulders. He’ll be a first-round pick in some leagues and an early-second-round pick in others.

Legitimate Building Blocks

• $28 Roman Anthony

• $27 Riley Greene

• $27 Pete Crow-Armstrong

• $26 Yordan Alvarez

• $26 Jackson Merrill

• $25 Jarren Duran

• $25 Wyatt Langford

• $23 Cody Bellinger

• $23 Randy Arozarena

• $22 Byron Buxton

• $22 Oneil Cruz

• $22 Seiya Suzuki

• $22 Maikel García

• $21 Tyler Soderstrom

• $21 Kyle Stowers

• $19 Michael Harris II

• $19 Teoscar Hernández

• $19 Jose Altuve

• $18 Andy Pages

Crow-Armstrong is one of the most difficult ranks this spring. He was a legitimate MVP candidate before the break (25 homers, 27 steals, .847 OPS) and a mediocre ballplayer after it (six homers, eight steals, .634 OPS). Lefties knocked the bat out of his hand all year (.188/.217/.376). Of course, his angelic defense will hold his spot in the lineup, deservedly so. PCA’s category juice forces me to keep the salary in the high 20s, but we’ll see if I have the nerve to click on his name when the picks count in March.

My friend Joe Sheehan was explaining in his newsletter why he was going under the Houston win total this year. In part: “A full season of Yordan Alvarez will only do so much, and I’m not sure that you can ever project a full season of Yordan Alvarez.” Bingo. Another case where it’s not fun to play fantasy baseball like an actuary, but it’s almost always the prudent angle. Alvarez has the bat and zone judgement of a god, but the knees of Fred G. Sanford. 

For a long time time it felt like the Bellinger career arc would never make sense, but he’s started to stabilize the last three years (average slash of .281/.338/.477, good pop, resourceful running). He was wise to re-sign in New York, a stadium where he had a .909 OPS and 18 homers last year. Welcome to the Ibañez All-Star days, where Bellinger now sits as a boring-value veteran.

Talk Them Up, Talk Them Down

• $17 Brandon Nimmo

• $17 Christian Yelich

• $16 Jo Adell

• $16 George Springer

• $16 Taylor Ward

• $15 Lawrence Butler

• $15 Alec Burleson

• $14 Steven Kwan

• $14 Jakob Marsee

• $14 Luis Robert Jr.

• $13 Ian Happ

• $13 Ceddanne Rafaela

• $12 Chandler Simpson

• $12 Brenton Doyle

• $12 Noelvi Marte

• $11 Jurickson Profar

• $11 Dylan Crews

• $11 Bryan Reynolds

• $11 Heliot Ramos

• $11 Mike Trout

• $11 Wilyer Abreu

• $11 Kerry Carpenter

• $11 Daylen Lile

• $11 Brendan Donovan

Can we just fast-forward to the days where Trout is a DH for a contending team? It’s frustrating to watch him toil for the hopeless Angels, and you wonder how much patrolling the outfield affects his durability. Trout did make it through 130 games last year — his most since 2019 — and although a .232/.359/.439 slash is under code for him, it’s a respectable 121 OPS+ when compared to league context. Pay for about 110 games this year, and be mindful that he shut down the running game several years back.

Burleson won a Silver Slugger Award last year? Oh, right, the utility slot. He’ll probably be parked at first base this year but still qualifies in the outfield. Last year’s improvement against lefties was the biggest boost to a career year, and you like drafting players on his career arc (this is the age-27 season). The Cardinals are no longer an exciting destination offense, which might give you Burleson at a mild discount.

Kwan’s style of play is a throwback, where he’s merely looking to make contact and not concerned with how loud that contact is. Consider his Baseball Savant sliders, where his contact stats are all dreamy but his hard-hit metrics barely register. Nonetheless, he’ll find his way to 10-14 homers a year, he still runs proactively and you can count on a plus average. Diversity of style is a good thing in sports — too often it feels like everyone wants to use the same strategy — and I salute Kwan’s willingness to swim against the tide.

Some Plausible Upside

• $10 Daulton Varsho

• $10 Trent Grisham

• $9 Addison Barger

• $9 Sal Frelick

• $9 TJ Friedl

• $8 Jose Caballero

• $8 Adolis García

• $8 Jac Caglianone

• $8 Ramón Laureano

• $7 Spencer Steer

• $7 Colton Cowser

• $6 Jordan Beck

• $6 Jasson Domínguez

• $6 Jesús Sánchez

• $5 Mickey Moniak

• $5 Tommy Edman

• $5 Josh Lowe

• $5 Cedric Mullins II

• $5 Giancarlo Stanton

• $4 Ryan O'Hearn

• $4 Chase DeLauter

• $4 Evan Carter

• $4 Matt Wallner

• $4 *Marcell Ozuna

• $4 Victor Scott II

• $4 Brandon Marsh

• $4 Lars Nootbaar

Laureano was probably the most underrated outfielder in fantasy baseball last year — he was the No. 29 outfielder in 5x5 value — and I initially had him as a double-digit value. I’m a little concerned the Nick Castellanos signing could create a logjam in the San Diego outfield, and ultimately, I decided to be prudent with Laureano’s ranking, mindful that he’s in his 30s and has never logged 500 at-bats in a season. Still, he’s an above-average hitter, and hopefully the Padres will give him some leash.

Sánchez was a smart addition for Toronto, though he’ll open the season in a platoon (on the heavy side). This is a knockout blow for those in smaller leagues, but acceptable if you’re in medium and deeper groups. Sanchez might not run much on the red-light Blue Jays, but he can hit for a reasonable average and knock 15-18 homers.

Scott didn’t hit at all last year and still stole 34 bases; imagine what’s possible if he shows any improvement at the plate. His zone judgment is fine and although the hard-hit sliders are all on the low side, that’s not always a problem for a speed merchant. Scott enters his age-25 season, so go time is now. The rebuilding Cardinals figure to leave him alone and grow at his own pace. Your late picks are all about upside, and Scott can legitimately check that box.

Bargain Bin

• $3 Jung Hoo Lee

• $3 Konnor Griffin

• $3 Cam Smith

• $3 Nick Castellanos

• $2 Willi Castro

• $2 Dylan Beavers

• $2 Dominic Canzone

• $2 Gavin Sheets

• $2 Jordan Walker

• $1 Andrew Benintendi

• $1 Trevor Larnach

• $1 Jonathan India

• $1 Jeff McNeil

• $1 Harrison Bader

• $1 Jake Mangum

• $1 Victor Robles

• $1 Justin Crawford

• $1 Parker Meadows

• $1 Austin Hays

With the fresh fantasy baseball season approaching, it’s time to get you some tiered rankings from my Shuffle Up series. Use these for auction drafts, straight drafts, keeper decisions or merely a view of how the position ebbs and flows. We started last week with infield spots, and today we complete them with the shortstop position. The outfield and the pitching spots will follow later this week.

The numbers are unscientific in nature and meant to reflect where talent clusters and drops off. Assume a 5x5 scoring system, as usual.

More Tiered Rankings

• Catcher

• First Base

• Second Base

• Shortstop

• Third Base

• Outfield

• Starting Pitcher

• Relief Pitcher

The Big Tickets

• $43 Bobby Witt Jr.

• $37 Elly De La Cruz

• $37 Gunnar Henderson

• $33 Zach Neto

• $31 Trea Turner

• $29 Mookie Betts

• $28 Francisco Lindor

In what can fairly be termed an off year, Witt still led the majors in hits and doubles and was the seventh-most valuable hitter for 5x5 leagues. The Kansas City lineup has an upgraded feel to it, with eight of its primary starters expected to be league average or better. Witt likely hasn’t peaked yet, about to enter his age-26 season.

De La Cruz has trimmed his strikeouts significantly the last two seasons and he’s no longer a batting average risk. And when you combine his speed with his average exit velocity, we can confidently project him to have a high BABIP yearly. De La Cruz had a strange powerless stretch last year, going 74 games with just one homer, and it’s possible he might eventually move off shortstop. But I still want to be proactive to his case, knowing we haven’t seen his peak yet.

Neto won’t be a screaming bargain, but he’s likely undervalued simply because he missed 36 games last year and it slightly muted his counting stats. Neto has improved his average every season and already has the category juice you demand in the early rounds. Even with a pedestrian Anaheim lineup supporting him, I’ll consider Neto in the second round and pounce on him in the third. You want players on the escalator, and Neto steps into his age-25 season.

I had to regretfully move Lindor down after we learned he needed hamate bone surgery. I’m not going to play the injury optimism game, especially for someone reading for his age-32 season.

Legitimate Building Blocks

• $25 Geraldo Perdomo

• $24 Corey Seager

• $23 Jeremy Peña

• $22 Bo Bichette

• $22 Maikel Garcia

• $20 CJ Abrams

Peña grew into a star last year but he’s still underpriced, perhaps because a month on the injured list muted his final counting stats. Take advantage of the price this one last time. He’s expected to bat leadoff in Houston, which is good for the volume. And he’s right in the middle of his peak years.

It hurt me to fade Seager, one of the best hitters in baseball. Seager’s plate discipline is so perfect that there’s a popular zone-judgment metric that’s named after him. But the reality is that Seager has played just one full season out of the last seven (ignoring the 2020 truncated year) and that’s not a trend to swim against as he turns 32. Seager’s average has dropped into the .270s the last two years and he’s never been interested in stealing bases. I’ll stay open-minded if his price slips in my rooms, but I can’t consider him at current ADP.

Perdomo was the No. 11 player in 5x5 value last year but his ADP is nowhere near that for the fresh season. This presents an attractive “regress and win” opportunity where Perdomo can actually give back a significant amount of last year’s stats and still be a fantasy profit. Perdomo is a high-percentage base-stealer and entering his age-26 season, so I’m not worried about that column. And he’s the rare player who had more walks than strikeouts last year, and those players are always attractive targets. Maybe the 20 homers won’t come back, but there’s enough broad profile here to make Perdomo a cornerstone player.

Talk Them Up, Talk Them Down

• $19 Willy Adames

• $18 Trevor Story

• $16 Dansby Swanson

• $15 Xavier Edwards

• $14 Jacob Wilson

• $13 Masyn Winn

• $13 Colson Montgomery

• $12 Brendan Donovan

Adames was a screaming fade last year after changing teams on a big contract and heading to a roomy park, but that angle only worked for the first half. He conked 18 homers and slugged .494 in the second half, and he even picked up his running. He might be a shade past his peak into an age-30 season, but so long as you’ve assembled batting average elsewhere, I could sign off on Adames around his Yahoo ADP of 106.3.

Wilson’s profile is filled with some interesting contradictions. He’s the hardest player to strike out in the AL but he actually has a poor chase rate and a low walk rate, too. His contact metrics were also low, which is why his Savant page suggests a .277 average last year, not the .311 number he finished with. But if you pick Wilson you’re betting on the Sacramento park (great for offense) and Wilson’s pedigree (he was the sixth overall pick in 2023 and zoomed through the minors). He’s capable of stealing 10-12 bases, too, like any front-9 ballplayer is.

Some Plausible Upside

• $11 Ezequiel Tovar

• $11 Bryson Stott

• $11 JJ Wetherholt

• $10 Otto Lopez

• $8 José Caballero

• $8 Xander Bogaerts

• $7 Jackson Holliday

• $7 Jake Cronenworth

• $6 Ernie Clement

• $6 Carlos Correa

• $5 Konnor Griffin

Holliday gave us category juice and a trimmed strikeout rate last year, but he needed hand surgery in mid-February and should open the year on the injured list. This is the type of news that could wreck a season, because we can’t expect Holliday to be sharp — and ready to run — the moment he comes off the injured list. Ultimately, the conclusion is the same as with Lindor — don’t be the injury optimist in your pool.

The Red Sox take a lot of heat for money not spent, but they were lucky when Bogaerts walked after the 2022 season. The X-Man hasn’t even been a league-average hitter the last two years. It’s a good thing he’s running, because he’s below code in every other column we use for scoring. The Padres are on the hook for eight more years.

Bargain Bin

• $3 Andrés Giménez

• $3 Anthony Volpe

• $3 Kevin McGonigle

• $3 Brooks Lee

• $2 J.P. Crawford

• $2 Chase Meidroth

• $1 Ha-Seong Kim