New Madrid Quake Threat: How a Single Seven Point Seven Shock Could Cut Off Poinsett County and Paralyze Tourism Across Arkansas and Tennessee

Poinsett County has been using a powerful earthquake scenario not only to test emergency response, but also to understand how a major New Madrid Seismic Zone event would cripple travel, tourism and regional connectivity across parts of Arkansas, Tennessee and beyond. Experts have long warned that a large quake in this zone could severely disrupt transportation systems, isolate communities and cause major economic losses, including in sectors such as tourism that depend on safe, reliable movement of people and goods.

A tourism region sitting on a seismic fault

Poinsett County lies directly within the New Madrid Seismic Zone, an area identified by the U.S. Geological Survey as the most seismically active region east of the Rocky Mountains and capable of producing major destructive earthquakes. Studies from agencies such as the Missouri Department of Natural Resources and regional planning bodies indicate that a magnitude 7.6 to 7.7 event in this zone would cause widespread damage across northeast Arkansas, western Tennessee and surrounding states, with serious impacts on transportation infrastructure, bridges and highways.

For travel and tourism, this geography matters. Cities like Jonesboro and Memphis are regional hubs for hotels, events, sports tourism, shopping and cultural activities. A major earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone is expected to damage or close roads and bridges, disrupt river traffic and cause extensive travel delays, making it difficult for visitors to reach or leave the area. The tabletop exercise in Payneway, built around a hypothetical 7.7 magnitude earthquake, is therefore directly tied to preserving not only local safety but also the long‑term attractiveness and resilience of the region as a travel destination.​

Simulating a 7.7 quake: how travel would break down

In the scenario used by Poinsett County leaders and emergency teams, a 7.7 magnitude earthquake tears away bridges, snaps roads and cuts utilities, effectively turning towns into islands. This is consistent with scientific and planning projections for a major New Madrid event, which foresee extensive damage to transportation systems and long‑lasting travel disruption in and around the Mississippi Valley.

If bridges and major roadways fail, the usual road links between communities like Trumann or Payneway and larger centres such as Jonesboro, Memphis or Newport could disappear in moments. For residents and tourists alike, familiar thirty‑minute or one‑hour drives to a hospital, airport, hotel or attraction might no longer be possible. Research on New Madrid earthquake scenarios indicates that severe damage to roads and bridges would lead to significant travel delays in key cities, including Memphis, hampering search and rescue operations and complicating the movement of emergency supplies.

For tourism, that type of disruption would mean cancelled trips, stranded visitors and severe interruptions to regional tourism economies. Hotels could be cut off from airports, events might be abruptly halted and travellers already in the area could find themselves unable to leave until critical infrastructure is restored or alternative transport is organised.

Access to hospitals, airports and tourism gateways

During the exercise, local officials focused heavily on access to hospitals in Jonesboro and Memphis, recognising that damaged roads would make it difficult for residents and visitors to reach medical care. This concern is supported by technical studies of New Madrid events, which estimate that tens of thousands of injuries and extensive infrastructure damage would overwhelm hospitals and emergency services in affected states. Nearly 130 hospitals are projected to suffer damage in some planning scenarios, many of them in counties close to the rupture zone, which would further affect the ability of tourists and residents to obtain treatment.

From a travel perspective, those same roads also serve as lifelines to airports, bus depots and other gateways used by visitors. Memphis, in particular, is identified by federal and academic analyses as a major urban centre at risk from a catastrophic New Madrid earthquake, with transportation systems, water distribution and other infrastructure vulnerable to severe shaking. If highways connecting Poinsett County to Memphis International Airport or to regional airports in Arkansas are damaged or closed, tourists could face prolonged stays in damaged areas or complex, multi‑step evacuations relying on improvised routes.

Tourism‑related freight, including food and supplies for hotels, restaurants and attractions, would also be disrupted. Studies on New Madrid impacts highlight that damage to land and infrastructure, including lateral spreading and flooding, would cause large economic losses and interrupt farming and commercial activity across the region. For rural tourism businesses and small towns that rely on weekend visitors, this kind of disruption could have long‑lasting effects.

Air support as a critical bridge for people and tourism

Because roads and bridges might be unusable after a major quake, Poinsett County’s exercise emphasised the potential role of air support as a lifeline. This aligns with federal emergency planning for the New Madrid Seismic Zone, which anticipates the use of helicopters and aircraft to move people and supplies when ground routes are blocked. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Memphis District, for example, maintains an Earthquake Response Plan designed to quickly establish communications and support impacted communities after a major New Madrid event, including through coordinated logistics and engineering operations.

For residents and tourists, air operations would likely become the only practical way to reach major medical centres, evacuate from heavily damaged zones or bring in specialist teams and relief cargo. In a tourism context, this means that visitors stuck in affected communities could be evacuated by air to safer cities, while essential staff and supplies could be flown in to keep critical services running. However, such operations require pre‑identified landing zones, communication protocols and clear chains of command, which is why Poinsett County is treating preplanning as essential rather than optional.

Travel disruption and tourism losses in a New Madrid scenario

Although the tabletop exercise in Poinsett County is hypothetical, it is grounded in decades of scientific and emergency management research on what a large New Madrid earthquake would do to travel. The Missouri Department of Natural Resources notes that a magnitude 7.6 event would cause extensive damage and land deformation, with severe economic impacts due to disrupted transportation and flooding. The U.S. Geological Survey and Federal Emergency Management Agency have warned that a major New Madrid event could lead to the highest economic losses from a natural disaster in U.S. history, with widespread and catastrophic damage affecting transportation systems and population centres in multiple states, including Tennessee and Arkansas.

For tourism, these disruptions would translate into:

• Long‑term closure or reduced capacity on key highways and bridges, affecting road trips, bus tours and access to rural attractions.
• Delays and capacity constraints at airports serving affected regions, including Memphis and smaller regional airports, as infrastructure is inspected, repaired or rebuilt.
• Interruptions to river traffic and port operations along the Mississippi and its tributaries, which would impact river cruises and freight crucial to tourism‑linked supply chains.
• Large‑scale cancellations of events, conferences and sports fixtures in cities like Memphis and St. Louis, as facilities are assessed for safety and transportation remains unreliable.

These consequences go beyond short‑term inconvenience: they would affect bookings, insurance costs, investment decisions and the reputation of the region as a safe, accessible place to visit. That is why preparedness exercises like the one in Payneway, although local in scope, tie into a much broader effort to preserve the viability of tourism in the central United States after a major seismic event.

Training, roles and tourism‑aware resilience

In Poinsett County’s planning, repeated emphasis has been placed on training and role clarity. Local leaders recognise that no community can ever be fully prepared for a disaster as complex as a 7.7 magnitude earthquake, but each exercise helps close the gap between plans on paper and real‑world decision‑making. This is consistent with guidance from the Arkansas Department of Emergency Management, which urges communities in the New Madrid Seismic Zone to develop robust emergency plans, practice evacuation routes and be prepared to be self‑sufficient for at least two weeks after a major event.

From a travel and tourism standpoint, this kind of readiness helps ensure that visitors are not forgotten in crisis plans. When every first responder, from police and firefighters to paramedics and public works crews, understands their role, it becomes easier to integrate the needs of tourists into evacuation, sheltering and information strategies. Visitors often lack local knowledge, have limited personal networks in the area and may not speak the local language fluently, which makes clear, well‑practised procedures essential for their safety.

By converting tabletop discussions into written plans for each city in Poinsett County, organisers are providing a practical tool that can be used when phones are overloaded, sirens are sounding and information is fragmented. In the context of tourism, such plans can include guidance on how to reach hotels and campgrounds, how to coordinate with visitor centres and how to use social media and local broadcasting to reach travellers who may not be plugged into local emergency channels.

A tourism region choosing preparation over complacency

Poinsett County’s work on earthquake scenarios reflects a broader regional choice: to face New Madrid risk with realism and preparation rather than complacency. Scientific assessments agree that a destructive earthquake in this zone remains a real concern, and that modern population levels and infrastructure density mean future impacts would be far greater than those of the early nineteenth‑century events.

By using tabletop exercises to model travel disruption and infrastructure failure, local leaders are laying a foundation for resilience that can protect both residents and visitors. When bridges fall and roads crack, the response needs to be quick, coordinated and mindful of everyone in the region, including tourists who may be far from home. Through planning, training and cooperation with state and federal partners, Poinsett County is taking steps to ensure that when the earth does eventually move, the region’s tourism and travel networks will have a better chance of recovering, rather than collapsing into prolonged chaos.

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