NCAA tournament bubble watch: The teams that need strong finishes to solidify their March Madness status
It's the final week for bubble teams to make their cases for the NCAA tournament.
As the final set of conference tournaments get underway, there are still a few teams needing a win (or three) to solidify their March Madness status. Here's a look at the teams whose performances will have the most NCAA tournament bubble impact ahead of Selection Sunday.
Miami (Ohio) (31-0)
The RedHawks are assuredly in the NCAA tournament after becoming the only team at the top level of college basketball to go undefeated during the regular season. The ceiling for Miami is probably a No. 8 seed or so, with the possibility of the RedHawks falling to a No. 9 or a No. 10 seed if they don’t win the MAC tournament.
And you might be surprised to find out that Miami is far from a lock to win that tournament, too. In fact, the RedHawks aren’t even the favorite. Akron is -110 to get the league’s automatic bid while Miami is at +225 after winning its last three regular-season games of the season by a combined six points.
If we take those odds at face value, there’s a very real chance the MAC will get two teams in the NCAA tournament with Akron scoring the auto bid and Miami making the field as an at-large. That will bump a team out of March Madness.
Missouri (20-11)
The Tigers should also be in the field but could find themselves in Dayton for the First Four games if they are a one-and-done in the SEC tournament. Mizzou has wins over Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Tennessee in SEC play, but lost their last two games of the regular season to fall all the way to No. 8 in the SEC tournament after having a chance at the No. 3 seed.
Missouri will probably play Kentucky in the SEC tournament on Thursday. A second win over the Wildcats likely solidifies the Tigers as a No. 10 seed or so. A loss — especially an ugly one — could send the Tigers to Ohio.
Auburn (16-15)
Auburn’s continued presence on the NCAA tournament bubble is a great example of how shallow the bubble field is this season.
If the Tigers lose to Mississippi State in the first round of the NCAA tournament, it’s nearly impossible to see how a .500 team that won seven of its 19 games against SEC opponents would get into the tournament. But if Auburn wins one or two games in the SEC tournament? The committee could still put the Tigers in.
Auburn lost three of its last four regular-season games and has gone 2-8 in its last 10 games. But wins over St. John’s, Arkansas and Florida are apparently still carrying the Tigers even though it’s clear that Auburn is far removed from being the team it showed it could be in December and January.
Indiana (18-13)
Here’s another bubble team that has fumbled away its recent opportunities to lock into the NCAA tournament field. The Hoosiers have lost five of their last six games and the only win in that span came against Minnesota. Four of those losses came to Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State and a hot Ohio State team, but the other defeat came at home to a Northwestern team that finished 15th in the Big Ten.
The Hoosiers could have a chance to avenge that loss to the Wildcats on Wednesday. Indiana plays the winner of Penn State and Northwestern in the second round of the Big Ten tournament.
Cincinnati (17-14)
The Bearcats were one of four teams that finished 9-9 in Big 12 play and have played their way onto the bubble in recent weeks. Cincy has won six of its last eight games with victories at Kansas and home against BYU in that stretch.
But Cincinnati’s rough start and its lack of a significant non-conference win could ultimately hinder its NCAA tournament chances. The Bearcats played Louisville, Georgia and Clemson before Big 12 play but went 0-3 in those games.
The path is there for Cincy to play its way into the NCAA tournament, however. The Bearcats have Utah on Tuesday to open the Big 12 tournament and then would play UCF with a win and regular-season champion Arizona with a win over the Knights. A victory over the Wildcats could be the ticket.
Santa Clara (26-7)
The Broncos scored a huge win on Monday night in the West Coast Conference tournament with a 76-71 defeat of Saint Mary’s. Santa Clara outscored the Gaels by eight in the second half to earn a matchup with Gonzaga for the conference’s automatic bid on Tuesday night.
A win over the Bulldogs obviously puts the Broncos in the tournament. But there’s a compelling case for Santa Clara even with a loss. Saint Mary’s is a lock for the tournament and Santa Clara went 2-1 against the Gaels this season as the Broncos were 15-3 in WCC play during the regular season. A close loss Tuesday night could be enough.
Virginia Tech (19-12)
Hokies’ coach Mike Young was visibly frustrated after his team’s 76-72 road loss at Virginia to end the regular season. The Hokies are 4-6 over their last 10 games and one of those wins came against Clemson.
Thanks to that sluggish finish, Virginia Tech finished 12th in the 15-team ACC and must play Tuesday night in the ACC tournament. A win over Wake Forest will give the Hokies the opportunity to take down Clemson again on Wednesday. Another win over the Tigers is probably necessary for Virginia Tech to feel better about its chances of making the NCAA tournament.
VCU (24-7)
The Rams finished in a tie for first in the Atlantic 10 with Saint Louis after going 15-3 in the regular season. VCU beat Virginia Tech by 18 early in the season, but two of its three regular-season A-10 losses came against the Billikens.
There’s not a compelling tournament case for anyone else in the A-10 other than Saint Louis, so VCU is the conference’s only hope at being a multi-bid league. The Rams will probably play Duquesne in the quarterfinals of the A-10 tournament on Friday, and anything less than an appearance in the championship game will be a disappointment.