Regression is a busy word during any fantasy draft season. Shrewd managers are trying to figure out what performances are real from the previous season and putting in legwork to see where regression will occur. Mind you, regression doesn’t have to be a negative word — players can positively regress to their means, too. But usually, when the R-word is dropped into a fantasy discussion, we’re talking about a player who’s likely to come down from an unexpected level of production.

But sometimes a fantasy pick can give back some stats in the new season and yet still be worth the fantasy slot. Let’s have a discussion about some guys I like to call “Regress and Win” players.

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Everyone listed in this article is coming off a strong year that’s become distrusted in the fresh market. With that, all of these players could play worse than last year and yet still potentially return a fantasy profit because their ADPs are so reasonable.

SS Geraldo Perdomo, Diamondbacks

2025 finish: SS3/Overall Hitter 11

2026 ADP: SS8/Overall Hitter 45

Perdomo was probably the most improved player in the National League last year. He clouted 20 homers — more than tripling his career high — and posted an excellent .290/.389/.462 slash. He finished fourth in the MVP vote and won a Silver Slugger Award, too.

But while the pop was a shocker, Perdomo’s season was also built with skills he already owned. His 27 steals were merely a result of more aggressive running — he was 16-for-20 on swipes back in 2023. He’s always had a keen batting eye and excellent contact skills; they merely improved in 2025.

The Diamondbacks might have seen Perdomo’s breakout coming, signing him to a four-year, $45 million extension before the year, despite the presence of respected SS prospect Jordan Lawlar. Arizona now sees Lawlar as a potential outfielder; shortstop belongs to Perdomo.

Most of the projection systems see Perdomo giving some pop back this year, but I’d be shocked if he didn’t hit for a plus average, and he’s a good baserunner in his mid-20s. Perdomo is a switch-hitter and will open the year as Arizona’s leadoff man, good for stat collecting. I will always love those rare hitters who walk more than they strike out. Perdomo's Yahoo ADP in the low 60s presents a buying opportunity.

OF Byron Buxton, Twins

2025 finish: OF9/Overall Hitter 20

2026 ADP: OF25/Overall Hitter 60

Buxton was baseball’s No. 1 prospect back in 2014, and we’ve been dreaming of his potential ever since. Injuries have mostly robbed him of his upside; after logging 140 games in the 2017 season, Buxton didn’t get past 92 appearances in any of the next six years. Heartbreak became a yearly appointment.

So it’s been fun to see Buxton back in the game the last couple of years. His 102 games in 2024 felt somewhat fortunate, and he backed that up with 126 games — and a career-best 488 at-bats — last summer. Buxton was a whirlwind on the field in 2025, slashing .264/.327/.551, ripping 35 home runs, stealing 24 bases in 24 attempts. The pedigree was always there — this was the payoff.

The power and speed will be there, it’s just a matter of how many games you’re getting for 2026. Would four dynamic months of Buxton — and two months of a fill-in — justify his current ADP? Is it possible Buxton has finally learned how to handle the rigors of a long season, or finally stopped being comically unlucky with injuries? I’m not going to aggressively attack Buxton at his market cost, but I’d like to secure at least one share — just to make sure I’m covered for any possible FOMO. When he’s able to play, he’s a show.

OF Christian Yelich, Brewers

2025 finish: OF10/Overall Hitter 24

2026 ADP: OF30/Overall Hitter 69

Check your league rules with respect to Yelich’s position eligibility. He played 19 games in the outfield last year (18 starts), which keeps him OF-eligible in the Yahoo game. Flexibility for the win.

Yelich’s counting stats last summer (88 runs, 29 homers, 103 RBI, 16 steals) were a little snappier than his slash line, which slipped to .264/.343/.452 last year. His OPS+ dropped 31 points last year, from 152 (elite) to 121 (solid, if unspectacular). We often talk about how player development isn’t always linear but player decline often is. Maybe the next OPS+ for Yelich will be somewhere in the 100-115 range.

But the Brewers will handle Yelich carefully, letting him DH more often than not. And while Yelich missed more than half of the 2024 season, he’s otherwise been fairly durable; he landed between 550 and 575 at-bats in the 2025, 2023 and 2022 seasons. I recognize he’s entering his age-34 campaign, but this looks like one of those boring-value veterans we love to target on draft day. I like the depth of the Milwaukee lineup and I expect Yelich to be productive as the team’s cleanup man.

Other possible Regress and Win hitters: Trevor Story, Brice Turang, Maikel Garcia

SP Andrew Abbott, Reds

2025 finish: SP25

2026 ADP: SP51

Abbott has been a useful starter for three years in Cincinnati, and in a different era, we would probably accept those results at face value. He’s had a playable ERA every season, moving from 3.87 to 3.72 to 2.87. His WHIP last year was a tidy 1.15, and he struck out 149 batters in 166.1 innings. When Hunter Greene hit the shelf a few days ago, it wasn’t a surprise when Abbott grabbed the Opening Day assignment for the Reds.

Alas, we play fantasy baseball in the Age of Enlightenment, where we have access to secondary stats and nuanced data — which often has us questioning a breakout. Abbott critics will note that he’s beaten his FIP every year, which is another way to suggest he’s been lucky. Abbott has also succeeded despite a high fly-ball rate and a fastball that sits just under 93 mph.

But let’s recognize that even if Abbott pitched to last year’s 3.66 FIP (or 3.56 xERA), he’d still be providing fantasy value. And an extreme fly-ball rate doesn’t have to be a negative; when a pitcher has an extreme slant to his batted-ball profile in any direction, it shows he’s exerting control over his outcomes. I think it’s prudent to focus on Abbott’s career ratios of 3.42 and 1.24 as starting points this year, and given his inexpensive ADP, he’s well-slotted to be a useful fantasy rotation piece.

Other possible Regress and Win pitchers: Nick Pivetta, Matthew Boyd