Tommy Lloyd is a phenomenal 144-35 in five seasons as Arizona’s head coach, but there’s another stat you’ll hear a lot over this NCAA tournament.

Lloyd has yet to take Arizona beyond the Sweet 16 in the tournament. This should be the season Arizona gets beyond that point. They have a team that was an obvious No. 1 seed and is on a very short list of favorites to win it all. And the Wildcats woke up Monday as the biggest favorite in any first-round game.

Here are the first-round picks for the West region with all odds from BetMGM (No. 6 seed BYU isn’t listed; the Cougars will play the winner of the First Four game between Texas and NC State):

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No. 12 High Point (+9.5) over No. 5 Wisconsin

For years, the moment the odds for the first round of the NCAA tournament came out, bettors would search for the Wisconsin game and take the under. Those days are done. This is a different Wisconsin era, with a team that wants to shoot 3s more than play defense. And High Point can score, with an up-tempo attack that averaged 90 per game. You’d have never taken over 164.5 on a Wisconsin game for decades, but for this one it seems low. High Point can score enough to give Wisconsin a scare.

No. 13 Hawaii (+15.5) over No. 4 Arkansas

Hawaii plays a truly unique no-help defense, and it works. They are 43rd in college basketball in defensive efficiency via KenPom.com and the best in opponents’ assists per basket. Basically, the Rainbow Warriors will not allow any assisted baskets as they play one-on-one defense and never come off their man to help. Not helping at all on Arkansas superstar freshman Darius Acuff Jr. might lead to Acuff going for 50 points, but we’ll see. It’s a strange prep for Arkansas, and it could keep the game within the number.

No. 3 Gonzaga (-18.5) over No. 14 Kennesaw State

Gonzaga is good and of all the matchups Kennesaw State could get, this isn’t a great one. Kennesaw lives off of offensive rebounds and getting to the free-throw line. The Bulldogs limit offensive rebounds and don’t foul much. Gonzaga should roll to an easy win.

No. 2 Purdue (-25.5) over No. 15 Queens

This line opened at -22.5 or -23.5 and moved toward the favorite. As we’ve seen with other matchups with the top teams, early bettors clearly believe it will be a very chalky tournament again. Purdue has the most efficient offense in college basketball and Queens is 322nd in defense, via KenPom. This could get ugly.

No. 10 Missouri (+2.5) over No. 7 Miami

Sometimes the selection committee makes an avoidable mistake in bracketing. There’s no way that Missouri, as a No. 10 seed, should get the benefit of playing what will amount to a first-round home game in St. Louis. That’s unfair to Miami, which played well in Jai Lucas’ first season as head coach. Miami is probably the slightly better team but we’ll go with the pseudo home-court advantage.

No. 1 Arizona (-31.5) over No. 16 LIU

There were two spreads with No. 1 seeds posted early in the week (the First Four determines the other two No. 1 seed matchups), and both moved at least two points toward the favorites. Think everyone was noticing the trend of the top seeds being more dominant over the past couple tournaments? Like Duke’s line moving three points, this one moved from its opener of -29.5. Arizona is a very good team, and while 31.5 points is a lot, let’s just buy into the chalk trend.

No. 9 Utah State (-1.5) over No. 8 Villanova

This is a fun 8-9 matchup. Neither team is that bad. Usually you’d go with the Big East team over the Mountain West team, but the Big East wasn’t great this season and Villanova went 0-4 against its top teams, UConn and St. John’s. Utah State is well rounded with an efficient offense, and the Aggies get the nod.

The East region has no shortage of blue bloods.

That starts with Duke, the No. 1 seed in the entire NCAA tournament. But there are plenty of brand names up and down the region, including UConn, Louisville, Kansas, UCLA and Michigan State. That’s a lot of titles among those programs.

Here are the picks for the first-round games in the East region, with all odds from BetMGM:

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No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5) over No. 9 TCU

This is a fun matchup to start the first round on Thursday. Ohio State was on the bubble before playing itself off it by winning four in a row (including one over Purdue) before losing a tight game to Michigan in the Big Ten tournament. TCU finished well too, but doesn’t shoot it great, and Ohio State all-time leading scorer Bruce Thornton is ready to show what he can do in the NCAA tournament.

No. 11 South Florida (+5.5) over No. 6 Louisville

Louisville with a healthy Mikel Brown Jr. would be the pick, but they also probably wouldn’t be a No. 6 seed either. The freshman star point guard missed the ACC tournament with a back issue. Will he be ready for Thursday? Will he be 100%? Nobody knows. The uncertainty leads to a pick of USF, which won the AAC regular season and tournament and is on an 11-game winning streak.

No. 1 Duke (-29.5) over No. 16 Siena

The line has been on the move since opening at -25.5 at some books. That has to be a reflection of the trend of the top teams being more dominant than usual over the last two tournaments, a storyline that will be tracked during this year’s event as well. Duke is dealing with injuries to two starters. Caleb Foster and his 8.5 points per game might return at some point in the tournament but probably not in the opener, though 6-11 Patrick Ngongba II could return for Thursday’s game. Either way, Duke is a machine. Siena doesn’t have much size to match Duke and doesn’t shoot 3s well enough to keep it close that way.

No. 3 Michigan State (-16.5) over No. 14 North Dakota State

Michigan State has won its last three first-round games by 10, 18 and 25 points, easily covering all three times. This is a good Spartans team led by stellar guard Jeremy Fears, and they shouldn’t have much trouble getting another easy first-round win.

No. 12 Northern Iowa (+10.5) over No. 5 St. John’s

St. John’s probably is underseeded after winning 19 of 20 including the Big East tournament. Rick Pitino is a masterful coach. But Northern Iowa presents matchup issues. The Red Storm won’t be able to get out and run against a glacially slow Northern Iowa team, and its dominance on the offensive boards could be mitigated by a Panthers team that does well keeping teams off the glass. It’s hard to see Northern Iowa winning, but if they can keep the pace down they can cover.

No. 10 UCF (+6.5) over No. 7 UCLA

It’s hard to trust coaches on injury updates before the tournament starts, so Mick Cronin’s optimism that star point guard Donovan Dent and leading scorer Tyler Bilodeau will be fine after suffering injuries in the Big Ten tournament is hard to fully buy. And also, just because they suit up doesn’t mean they’ll be healthy. KenPom.com projects this as a 4-point UCLA win, so there’s value there too. UCF went 4-7 down the stretch so there are flaws there. Keep an eye on UCLA’s injury reports for this one.

No. 13 Cal Baptist (+14.5) over No. 4 Kansas

It’s entirely possible that the Darryn Peterson takeover happens. But we all know Peterson has had a weird freshman season before he becomes perhaps the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft. There’s a lot of noise in the stat that Kansas is 14-8 when Peterson plays but 9-2 without him, but it speaks to how odd the situation has been. Cal Baptist will play good defense and don’t have to travel far to San Diego, for what that’s worth. It’s just hard to trust Kansas yet.

No. 15 Furman (+20.5) over No. 2 UConn

UConn looked like a title contender for the first half of the season, so it’s hard to figure out what happened when they lost four of their last 11 including bad losses to Creighton and Marquette and a 20-point loss to St. John’s in the Big East title game. Furman isn’t great, but they do have rare size for a small-conference team (fifth in the nation in average height according to KenPom.com). That helps. Furman doesn’t shoot 3s well, which isn’t great when taking a big underdog, but we’re just hoping the Paladins can keep it within 20.