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Yesterday — 17 March 2026Main stream

March Madness sleeper teams who could slip into the role of Cinderella

Christmas Day for college hoops junkies is Selection Sunday.

For 68 teams, the gift of being a part of this year’s March Madness is one they’ll never forget.

Some NCAA Tournament teams were presented with easier paths to the Final Four than others.

MORE: Predicting the winner of March Madness 2026

The cream of the crop rose to the top in last year’s NCAA Tournament. Every No. 1 seed advanced to the Final Four. It’s just the second time that’s happened. The year before that, three of the Final Four squads were top seeds.

So, does that mean that the big dreams of Cinderella teams have come to an end? Will there ever be another underdog who gives us a fairy tale ride? One that’s worth rooting for against the mighty giants?

With NIL money and all kinds of player movement this past year, ya never know. It’s possible, of course, but so is completing a perfect bracket (uh-huh, riiight).

As we prepare for the First Four games on Tuesday, let’s look at four lower-seeded teams that could sneak into the Sweet 16. We’re talking teams seeded No. 8 or below, one from each region.

I don’t see any of these teams making it past that. Just surviving the first weekend would be a remarkable accomplishment.

EAST REGION (No. 8 Ohio State)

Mar 12, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes guard Bruce Thornton (2) reacts after making a 3-pointer against the Iowa Hawkeyes during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images

Don’t let the Buckeyes’ 21-12 record fool you. OSU is a top-25 team according to both KenPom and Barttorvik, the two most respected statistical sites utilized during March Madness.

I find it odd that oddsmakers have Ohio State as a mere 2.5-point favorite over 22-11 TCU (43rd at Ken Pom; 49th at Barttorvik).

Their records are nearly identical, but over the past five weeks, the Buckeyes have beaten a surging Purdue squad, taken down Iowa, and narrowly lost to Michigan in the Big 10 conference tournament.

Senior point guard Bruce Thornton has been explosive down the stretch, and he’ll be a tough matchup for TCU.

The problem is, after sending the Horned Frogs home, OSU will face (gulp) No. 1 overall seed Duke. The bad-ass Blue Devils will pose major problems. An upset is highly unlikely, but, hey, a No. 8 has toppled a No. 1 seed in the second round twice in the past five years:

2022: No. 8 North Carolina defeated No. 1 Baylor 93-86 (OT)
2021: No. 8 Loyola Chicago defeated No. 1 Illinois 71-58

So it can be done, but that’s a tall order against a loaded Duke squad.

SOUTH REGION (No. 11 VCU)

Mar 15, 2026; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; VCU Rams guard Tyrell Ward (15) looks at the Championship trophy after defeating the Dayton Flyers in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Championship game at PPG Paints Arena. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

VCU is HOT.

The tough Rams have won 16 of their last 17 games, including the Atlantic 10 conference title game.

They face a true blue blood in North Carolina to begin the tournament. Ordinarily, the Tar Heels would be double-digit favorites, but freshman and future NBA lottery pick Caleb Wilson is out for the tourney with a thumb injury, which really hurts UNC’s hopes.

The Rams will be biting at the heels of UNC from the start and I expect a close game — as do bookmakers.

Carolina is just a 2.5-point favorite and the Rams are rolling at the right time under first-year coach Phil Martelli Jr.

VCU has the ability to score from anywhere and is a great 3-point shooting squad.

An upset is ripe for the taking here.

Up next will be Illinois (Sorry, Penn), which statistically has the best offense in the country. The Fighting Illini (7th overall in KenPom ratings and sixth in Barttorvik) should have been a No. 2 seed and will have a chip on their shoulder.

WEST REGION (No. 9 Utah State)

Mar 20, 2025; Lexington, KY, USA; Utah State Aggies guard Mason Falslev (12) shoots the ball during the second half against the UCLA Bruins in the first round of the NCAA Tournament at Rupp Arena. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

Another off-the-radar team — except to KenPom (No. 30) and Barttorvik (No. 28) — that is capable of reeling off two wins.

This is the fourth straight NCAA Tournament appearance for the Aggies — and, if you most know, that’s short for “agricultarists.” Their mascot is a bull named Big Blue.

USU is led by do-it-all junior guard Mason Falslev, the Mountain West Player of the Year and a rising star who will need to do a bit of everything for USU to beat No. 8 Villanova, another true blue blood from the Big East.

Despite a 24-8 record, the eighth-seeded Wildcats (No. 33 at KenPom, No. 36 at Barttorvik) are 2.5-point underdogs, one of two such teams (Iowa is the other, over Clemson) in the first round.

I’m taking the Aggies but a win would mean another matchup against another Wildcats team — Arizona, my pick to win it all.

MIDWEST REGION (No. 10 Santa Clara)

March 9, 2026; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Santa Clara Broncos head coach Herb Sendek celebrates in the locker room after defeating against the Saint Mary’s Gaels after the game at Orleans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

I’m going the other way, Jay.

Santa Clara’s last NCAA Tournament appearance was in 1996, when the 10th-seeded Broncos upset No. 7 Maryland. Before that, in 1993, a ragtag bunch of Broncos, a No. 15 seed led by future two-time NBA MVP Steve Nash, shocked No. 2 Arizona in the first round.

Thirty years later, Santa Clara is once again a 10 and faces a formidable program in Kentucky (No. 7). The Broncos (No. 35 KenPom, No. 29 Barttorvik) have a 26-8 record that includes solid wins over Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga. They’re led by veteran coach Herb Sendek, a former Kentucky assistant, and led by WCC conference MVP Graham Ike, along with Christian Hammond, Elijah Mahi, and Bukky Oboye.

Kentucky (No. 28 at KenPom, No. 31 Barttorvik) are only 3.5-favorites to rise to victory, but I’m saying the Wildcats fall.

However, the next step for Santa Clara to reach the Sweet 16 would be to oust the incredibly talented Iowa State Cyclones. The Broncos could be one (win) and done (most likely).

Conclusion

Is it time for another Cinderella story during this year’s March Madness? Sure feels like there could be a bit of mayhem even if there are four clear favorites (Duke, Arizona, Michigan, Florida), the four No. 1 seeds, to cut down the nets as national champions.

But fans adore underdogs — count me among them — so here’s hoping and praying we get a little magic from a surprise school.

Now, get your snacks and comfy chair ready for the greatest four days in sports: The first week of the NCAA Tournament.

It’s time to dance, y’all.

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