Five Bold Predictions for March Madness 2026

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18 March 2026 at 17:56

The madness is almost here! If you are a veteran of watching the NCAA Tournament, you are well aware that something crazy happens in every single edition. Even last year, one of the chalkiest tournaments in recent memory, gave us 10-seed Arkansas in the Sweet 16, and even a Final Four of ALL one-seeds does feel a little crazy that it transpired that way. So, let’s see if we can corral some of the madness this year. Here are our 5 bold predictions for the 2026 NCAA March Madness Tournament!

MARCH MADNESS: Predicting March Madness upsets in the 2026 NCAA Tournament

South Florida makes a run to the Sweet 16

Mar 5, 2026; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; South Florida Bulls head coach Bryan Hodgson talks to a referee during the second half against the Memphis Tigers at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

With head coach Bryan Hodgson, the South Florida Bulls are a very analytically-minded operation. They take a ton of 3-pointers and shots at the rim, they dominate the boards, and they play at an exceedingly fast tempo. Their roster was built with this in mind, with wall-to-wall athletes ready to execute the system. The bracket also broke perfectly for the Bulls. Have you ever seen an 11-seed that’s going to be the more athletic team for both of their opening games? Me neither. I’m backing them.

Tennessee makes a run to the Elite 8

This Tennessee team has finally gotten healthy at the right time, as both JP Estrella and Nate Ament are back from injury. The Vols are a team that relies on the perimeter shotmaking of Ament and Ja’Kobi Gillespie, as well as the offensive rebounding of Estrella and Jaylen Carey. I love their positioning in the bracket as they should be able to out-athlete Miami or SMU, and then they’re probably going to be a coin flip against Virginia. Get past those two, and you’re likely looking at Iowa State, a team that I think the Vols match up well with because of their ability to create second-chance points.

UConn becomes the first team seeded 2 or higher to lose

I am very concerned about this UConn team after some of the showings they put on in the last month, between the no-show losses to Creighton and Marquette and the wilting against St. John’s in the Big East title game. If UCLA beats UCF, I think the Huskies are ripe to be upset in the round of 32 by Donovan Dent and co. If not, I get a second chance by virtue of predicting that all other 1s and 2s will make it to the Elite 8, and the Huskies could be sent home again by Michigan State or South Florida.

Texas vaults from the First Four to the Sweet Sixteen

Mar 17, 2026; Dayton, OH, USA; Texas Longhorns guard Tramon Mark (12) dribbles defended by NC State Wolfpack forward Musa Sagnia (13) during a first four game of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at University of Dayton Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

If you were burning the midnight oil Tuesday night, you saw one classic First Four game between Texas and NC State, with a game-winning jumper from Tramon Mark allowing the Longhorns to come out victorious. This could be a momentum-starter for a team that now draws BYU without Richie Saunders, and their ability to get to the foul line could neutralize Graham Ike in the round of 32. Remember, a First Four team has won a Round of 64 game in every edition since it was implemented, except for two!

No upsets among 1-4 seeds

If last year was any indication, the gap between the top of the sport and the middle of the sport is widening. The 2025 NCAA Tournament saw no teams seeded higher than 5 lose in the first round, and I am predicting that to happen again here. It’s not impossible, as I do think that Hofstra and Troy have puncher’s chances against Alabama and Nebraska, respectively, but they’re still going to be double-digit underdogs in those games. I think it’s much more likely that the cinderellas come from the 11 line this year as opposed to anything farther.