It’s key to any successful fantasy baseball season to correctly identify sleepers and breakouts. Below, Corbin Young breaks down two sleeper SPs and two breakout SPs. For more sleepers, go here; for more breakouts, go here.

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SLEEPER STARTERS

Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays

Interestingly, Pepiot had one of his best seasons in 2025, pitching away from Tropicana Field. However, the draft market hasn’t valued him as highly as prospects and those with smaller samples. In 2023 and 2024, Tropicana Field ranked third in strikeout park factors and 25th in offensive park factor. When the Rays played in George Steinbrenner Field in 2025, they ranked eighth in offensive park factor and 14th in strikeout park factor.

Pepiot’s swinging-strike rate was at 13.5% in 2024, which dropped in 2025 (12.1%) with the ballpark change. His changeup leads his arsenal with a 15.4% swinging-strike rate in 2025, similar to his career average (14.5%). That aligns with the league-wide changeup swinging-strike average at 15.5%. Pepiot’s changeup generates an above-average vertical movement profile, leading to whiffs and weaker contact, specifically against left-handed hitters (.232 wOBA, .253 xwOBA) in 2025.

Besides Pepiot’s changeup, the four-seamer profiles as an above-average pitch based on movement profiles. Pepiot’s four-seam possesses over 19 inches of IVB (induced vertical break), compared to the league average of around 16 inches. That pairs well when a pitcher can generate tons of extension, which Pepiot tends to do, given his 77th percentile extension at 6.8 feet.

Pepiot lowered his four-seam usage to right-handed hitters in 2025 (42.6%), down from 2024 (57%). Unsurprisingly, the batted ball results declined in 2025 (.396 wOBA, .355 xwOBA) compared to 2024 (.290 wOBA, .283 xwOBA) against right-handed hitters. That coincides with the park factor changes in 2025, which could be noisy. Theoretically, Pepiot’s four-seam should fare well in Tropicana Field, since it’s a pitcher-friendly environment.

Pepiot throws an interesting slider that doesn’t drop much, but sweeps 6-7 inches toward his glove side over the past two seasons. That’s notable because Pepiot’s slider elicited a career-high in swinging-strike rate in 2024 (16.2%), down to 11.4% in 2025. For context, Pepiot’s slider possesses an above-average horizontal movement profile, which typically leads to more weak contact. We mention Pepiot’s slider because it’s the wild card that could help him against right-handed hitters.

Don’t sleep on Pepiot in the middle rounds because he possesses the stuff and home park upgrade that make him a palatable sleeper in 2026.

Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels

One of these days, Reid Detmers will prove the believers correct.

Jokes aside, Detmers fits the Kris Bubic mold of having success as a reliever, then rejoining the starting rotation with optimal results. Unfortunately, Detmers landed on the injured list in early September 2025 with elbow inflammation, which may have coincided with a 2 mph decrease in four-seam velocity. He has pitched in spring training, so we’ll want to monitor his health.

What’s to like about Detmers? It starts with the stuff. Detmers’ slider leads the arsenal with an above-average swinging-strike rate at 20.5% in 2025, up from a career average of 18%. With the additional four-seam velocity, we saw his swinging-strike rate increase to 14.7% in 2025 from 10.1% throughout his career.

Detmers’ four-seam generated over 18 inches of IVB in 2025, helping to create a rising effect on the heater as he peppered it high in the zone. Those tend to be optimal locations for a four-seamer with tons of IVB. Besides the four-seamer, Detmers’ slider movement profile supports the above-average swinging-strike rates because it’s a nasty gyro-like slide with tons of downward movement. The slider drops nearly 38 inches (37.8), five more inches of downward movement compared to the average.

Like other starting pitchers, Detmers relied more on his best pitch, the slider, especially to left-handed hitters. The slider usage went to 50.5% in 2025, up from 32.8% (2024) and 36.5% (2023) against left-handed hitters. That coincided with Detmers throwing fewer four-seamers (31.2%) and sinkers (6.9%), a 7-8-point drop for both against lefties in 2025.

The elbow issue might be the biggest concern, but Detmers’ spot in the rotation looks safe for now. Thankfully, Detmers’ draft price (191.3 ADP) hasn’t been increased to a level that adds risk, so it’s a low-risk, medium-reward bet for a starting pitcher sleeper.

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BREAKOUT STARTERS

MacKenzie Gore, Texas Rangers

MacKenzie Gore was the only starting pitcher with three pitches eliciting a swinging-strike rate at 18% or higher in 2025. That includes Gore’s slider (19.5%), changeup (20%) and cutter (18.8%). It’s worth noting that Gore introduced a cutter in 2024, which he primarily threw to right-handed hitters (6%) in 2025, as his fourth-most thrown pitch. It was a small sample of Gore’s cutters, but they were effective for whiffs against righties and weaker contact (.253 wOBA, .259 xwOBA).

Gore changed his pitch mix against left-handed hitters, showing he understands that he needs to throw his best pitch (slider) more often. That’s evidenced by Gore throwing his slider 44.3% of the time against left-handed hitters (2025), up from 4.9% in 2024. Historically, Gore relied heavily on the four-seamer against lefties in 2024 (52.3%) and 2023 (57.1%).

Gore’s pitch mix change against lefties should continue to be fruitful because hitters destroyed the four-seamer in 2025 (.451 wOBA, .387 xwOBA) and 2024 (.385 wOBA, .373 xwOBA). Theoretically, Gore’s four-seamer should generate more whiffs and better results, given the movement profile. Gore’s four-seamer has above-average induced vertical break (IVB) with elite extension (89th percentile).

That suggests Gore’s four-seam locations could improve since he tends to throw it in the zone too often. When Gore threw the four-seamer in the zone in 2025, it led to a 12.6% swinging-strike rate, .367 wOBA and .382 xwOBA. Unfortunately, that’s not much better than when Gore throws the four-seamer outside the zone (.364 wOBA, .371 xwOBA). That hints at Gore’s four-seamer being unable to elicit weak contact, partially because it lacks arm-side fade.

Thankfully, Gore likely knows that and continues to evolve his pitch mix to lower the four-seam usage. Besides the whiffs, Gore’s control can be an issue, with a 37% ball rate in 2025. The wild card in Gore’s favor involves the significantly better defense behind him on the Rangers. Last season, the Rangers’ team defense ranked first in defensive runs saved (DRS), while the Nationals (Gore’s former squad) ranked 27th. In Outs Above Average, the Rangers ranked sixth and the Nationals ranked 29th.

Gore should provide plenty of strikeouts and a potentially improved WHIP, which could be better than his career norm (1.40). If Gore posts a 1.25 WHIP, there will be tons of value in the improved team context in 2026, as a starting pitcher breakout. It’s a low-risk, high-reward draft selection.

Ryan Weathers, New York Yankees

Injuries have been a problem for Ryan Weathers, who hasn’t logged 100 innings throughout his five MLB seasons. In a small sample of 38 innings, Weathers posted a career-best swinging-strike rate (13.6%) after missing nearly 150 days (144) on the injured list for a strained forearm and lat strain. We saw Weathers’ four-seam velocity reach 96.9 mph in 2025, a career high. During an early spring training outing, Weathers threw his four-seam harder, averaging 98.5 mph against the Nationals.

It might be scary for a pitcher with an extensive injury history to be ramping up their velocity early in spring training. However, we know that increased velocity can be beneficial from a whiff and weak contact standpoint. Notably, Weathers’ changeup and sinker were thrown over 1.5 mph harder in his early spring training performance. Weathers made a pitch mix change by lowering his four-seam usage and bumping up sweeper usage. Monitor that adjustment, though it could be small-sample noise.

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The main concern for the changeup would be losing downward movement with the additional velocity. Theoretically, it could lead to fewer whiffs, especially to right-handed hitters. For context, Weathers’ changeup elicited a 20.7% swinging-strike rate, over five percentage points above the league average.

In Weathers’ spring training outing, he tinkered with throwing more sweepers, particularly to lefties (45%). Weathers threw sweepers 27.8% of the time in 2025, but we saw him experiment with heavy sweeper usage at 35.1% in 2024 against left-handed hitters. That would be an optimal approach because Weathers’ sweeper remains one of his best pitches, allowing a .221 wOBA (.153 xwOBA). Interestingly, the changeup was relatively effective against lefties (.250 wOBA, .184 xwOBA). Weathers threw his changeup more against left-handed hitters in 2025 (18.3%) across a small sample, up from 10.8% in 2024.

Weathers has been going past pick 200 as one of the final picks in drafts. Expect his ADP to rise, but the price bakes in the injury risk for a potential breakout season in 2026. The increased velocity, pitch mix change and improved team context support the upside scenario.

It’s key to any successful fantasy baseball season to correctly identify sleepers and breakouts. Below, we break down some of the top sleepers and breakouts at outfield.

Daylen Lile, Nationals (214.5 ADP)

The market is giving you a giveaway draft price here; please take advantage. Lile wasn’t overmatched in his first run through the majors, slashing .299/.437/.498 with nine homers and eight steals over 91 games. And the steal count is going to rise — he possesses a speed score in the 92nd percentile, and he had a silly 11 triples in 91 games last year. Some say the triple is a dying play in modern baseball — Lile is single-handedly bringing it back. His stolen-base success rate will rise as he gains experience.

The Nationals were patient with Lile at the front of his debut, but he was hitting cleanup at the end of last season. This year, he’s slotted in the No. 3 spot, after James Wood and CJ Abrams and ahead of Dylan Crews. I probably can’t sell you on the bottom of the Washington lineup, but the top needs little defense.

Lile was far from the fantasy radar at this time last year and arrived at the 2025 All-Star break having hit .234 with two homers in his initial 111 career at-bats. But things clicked over the summer, as he improved in each of the final three months and loudly broke out in September (.391 BA, 6 HR, 19 RBI, 20 R, 1.212 OPS). Lile has strong contact skills and a line-drive stroke, and his overall .299 batting average was well-supported by a .302 xBA. Although he lacks the ceiling of the more heralded Crews, Lile is a more polished hitter and is nearly a full year younger. He’s also faster, as Lile hasn’t yet put his 92nd percentile sprint speed to full use. As mentioned, the rebuilding Nats will likely make their outfield trio of Lile, Crews and James Wood the foundation of their lineup.

Ramon Laureano, Padres (213.9 ADP)

Laureano was probably the most underrated outfielder in fantasy baseball last year — he was the No. 29 outfielder in 5x5 value — and I initially had him as a double-digit value on my tiered rankings. I’m a little concerned the Nick Castellanos signing could create a logjam in the San Diego outfield, and ultimately, I decided to be prudent with Laureano’s ranking, mindful that he’s in his 30s and has never logged 500 at-bats in a season. Still, he’s an above-average hitter, and hopefully the Padres will give him some leash.

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Nobody picked outside the top 200 is a sure thing, but Laureano has already shown upside to be excited about.

Kerry Carpenter, Tigers (203.4 ADP)

Carpenter doesn’t take many walks and he’s never hit left-handed pitching much — the Tigers have generally platooned him — so at first glance, you’re thinking he’s a capped-ceiling player. But Carpenter showed some progress in limited work against lefties last year (three homers, .400 slugging) and Detroit is considering giving him more exposure to southpaws this season.

So you have two paths to make your money on Carpenter this year. If he approaches 500 at-bats, 30-plus homers and 85-plus RBI are reachable targets. And if the platoon sticks, at least he can focus on what he normally does: mashing right-handed pitching. Carpenter is also in the prime part of his career arc, stepping into his age-28 season. Carpenter is probably a better pick for leagues that allow for regular lineup tinkering, but no matter your format, consider his positives.

Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox (208.3 ADP)

I’m not going to cheat and call Abreu a breakout player, because we’ve seen growth the last two years (and he was great in limited action for the WBC champion Venezuelan team).

If he doesn’t get hurt in the second half of 2025, Abreu likely gets home with 30 homers and 100 RBI. His .256 career average isn’t a problem, and although Boston’s outfield is congested — this roster is still begging for one more trade — Abreu’s Gold Glove defense marks his spot in the lineup. If Abreu didn’t get hurt last year, his ADP would surely be 30-50 slots higher this spring.

Justin Crawford, Phillies (203.5 ADP)

The ADP is on the rise but it’s still going to be reasonable all spring, so consider the upside case with this intriguing rookie. Crawford hasn’t developed power yet, but he was a .334/.411/.452 player at Triple-A last year, with 46 steals in 112 games. And that came while navigating his age-21 season; time is on his side.

Crawford is in camp as a non-roster invitee, given a chance to win the bigger half of Philly’s center field platoon. But with Johan Rojas facing a PED suspension, Crawford has a shot to take this job all for himself. Crawford's defense is MLB-ready — the Phillies will appreciate having a good defender join their outfield, for once — and he’s not going to have the bat knocked out of his hands.

Crawford also checks the pedigree box, as he’s the son of former All-Star Carl Crawford. You’ll see similarities in their games.

Alec Burleson, Cardinals (173.9 ADP)

I’m putting Burleson towards the bottom of today’s list because he might be more of a value pick than a true sleeper. Again, amigos, I’m not hung up on definitions. I’m just trying to give you some appealing players to target in your drafts, guys you can make a profit on. Burleson applies.

Burleson figured out lefties in 2025 and no longer has any worry about being platooned. His contact skills are excellent and he still might grow into a 25-30 homer guy. He also qualifies at first base, which has quietly become a difficult fill in recent seasons. The Cardinals will probably have Burleson in the No. 3 slot all year, ideal for volume and run production.

Dylan Crews, Nationals (200.4 ADP)

Once one of baseball’s best prospects, Crews has thus far sputtered in the majors, logging a .634 OPS in 412 at-bats over two seasons. But this youngster has such a fantasy-friendly skill set that even with little success at the dish, he has still managed to produce 13 homers and 29 steals. The No. 2 overall pick of the 2023 MLB Draft has been hamstrung by a .248 BABIP, and the combination of better luck and improved skills will lead to a breakout campaign. For the cost of a late-round pick, managers could find themselves with a 24-year-old who hits .260 with 20 homers and 35 steals.

Dominic Canzone, Mariners (Undrafted)

Despite doing some excellent things at the plate last season, Canzone is a complete afterthought in most drafts. The slugger hit .300 with 11 homers in 269 at-bats, thanks to elite marks in average exit velocity (92.4 mph) and barrel rate (14.5%). His success at the dish was well-supported by his expected marks, and his .533 xSLG was even higher than his .481 SLG.

The left-handed hitter also put himself in position to be considered for a full-time role by posting a respectable .712 OPS against southpaws. The Mariners have a top-heavy lineup and could really use someone to emerge as the No. 6 hitter. Canzone currently looks like their best bet.

Evan Carter, Rangers (Undrafted)

After breaking out by posting a .917 OPS during the Rangers’ World Series run in 2023, Carter has dealt with significant injuries over each of the past two seasons. But he is healthy right now, and with 15 homers and 19 steals over 400 career at-bats, the 23-year-old has already proven to have the diverse skill set that is coveted in category formats. Despite going undrafted in practically all Yahoo leagues, Carter has 20-20 potential if he can stay off the injured list. Additionally, he should immediately improve on his career .235 average, since he made massive improvements on his strikeout rate last year.

Matt Wallner, Twins (Undrafted)

Wallner is the definition of an all-or-nothing masher, as is evidenced by his career 32.3% strikeout rate and 15.7% barrel rate. He dealt with terrible luck last season, as his .228 BABIP seemed nearly impossible for someone who hits the ball so hard.

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Even in a down year, he still managed to produce 22 homers in 336 at-bats, thanks to his penchant for producing pulled fly balls. Wallner also logged some time on the IL last year, and this time around he will use better durability and improved luck to hit .250 with 30 home runs.

Jesús Sánchez, Blue Jays (Undrafted)

A Sánchez breakout may not be as spectacular as that of the others on this list, but it still could happen for someone who has become an afterthought in fantasy drafts. By being traded twice since last summer and ultimately moving from Miami to Toronto, Sánchez received an upgrade in both supporting cast and home ballpark. A poor finish to the 2025 season with the Astros hid the fact that he improved his walk rate last year, while maintaining strong marks in average exit velocity (91.3 mph) and barrel rate (11.1%). The Blue Jays made a point of acquiring Sánchez on the eve of spring training, and he should occupy a premium lineup spot against righties. He has averaged 14.5 steals over the past two years and should finally produce a 20-homer season.

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Devin Booker, Suns

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Stephon Castle, Spurs

We’ve seen the ceiling from Castle this season; it was 88 fantasy points back in February with a 40-12-12 triple-double. The Spurs PG posted his third triple-double of the season last week against the Nuggets.

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Luka Dončić, Lakers

Dončić is one of the more popular cards to chase in the hobby. He’s also been an absolute beast in fantasy basketball with at least 73 fantasy points in four of his past six games, including a High Score of 91 last week.

Cade Cunningham, Pistons

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder

You think SGA wants to repeat as MVP? If this recent stretch of play is any indication, the answer to that question is yes. The Thunder guard is coming off one of his best fantasy weeks, topping out at 80 fantasy points in High Score.

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