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NCAA March Madness: Over 99% Of Brackets Busted By Day 2
Topline
Roughly 99.9% of brackets were busted by day two of this year’s NCAA March Madness men’s tournament, with remaining entrants hoping to overcome the absurd odds of submitting a perfect bracket for all 63 matchups.
The Texas Longhorns scored one of the big upsets of day one by beating the BYU Cougars during the first round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.
NCAA Photos via Getty ImagesKey Facts
Only an estimated 6,000 perfect brackets are left standing after No. 5 seed Texas Tech defeated No. 12 seed Akron.
Over 36 million brackets were submitted in major online games through ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, USA Today and Sports Illustrated, according to the NCAA.
More than half of the brackets were eliminated after the first game of the tournament, when No. 9-seeded TCU edged No. 8-seeded Ohio State in a 66-64 victory.
The number of perfect brackets was then slashed to about 2.4 million mid-afternoon Thursday after No. 12 seed High Point beat No. 5-seeded Wisconsin in the tournament’s first notable upset.
What Are The Odds Of A Perfect Bracket?
One in 9.22 quintillion if you flip a coin or guess every pick. However, odds improve to a still abysmal estimated one in 120.2 billion if entrants have knowledge of college basketball and the tournament’s teams, according to the NCAA. A perfect bracket requires entrants to pick 63 games correctly.
Surprising Fact
Those who submitted brackets through prediction market Kalshi can win $1 billion if they pull off the near-impossible with a perfect bracket. The highest scoring bracket will receive a $1 million prize.
Key Background
Nobody has ever picked a perfect March Madness bracket, according to NCAA data. The closest someone has come to beating the odds was an Ohio man, who in 2019 predicted 49 of the 63 games correctly. His bracket was busted during the Sweet Sixteen round. Last year, a bracket remained perfect through 42 games and was busted after No. 3 seed Kentucky defeated No. 6 seed Illinois, marking the first time since 2019 a perfect men's bracket lasted until the tournament’s second round. For women’s basketball, one bracket made it as far as 57 games out of the 67 games played.
What Teams Are The Favorites?
The University of Arizona is favored to win this year’s men’s tournament, according to DraftKings, which puts the juggernaut at a +320 betting line, just ahead of Michigan (+370) and Duke (+380). The University of Connecticut boasts a -265 betting line in the women’s tournament.
