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Yesterday — 25 March 2026Main stream

NBA playoff picture: All of the scenarios and stakes for postseason contenders down the stretch run

The NBA playoff picture will come into clearer view each day between now and the end of the regular season on April 12. In the meantime, we will provide detailed daily updates on the landscape, including magic numbers, remaining schedules and the stakes for every day's slate of games.

Jump to: Western Conference


EASTERN CONFERENCE

In the Eastern Conference, the Detroit Pistons, Boston Celtics, New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers, in some order, appear bound for the top four playoff seeds and home-court advantage in the opening round. The Pistons, who hold a five-game lead on the Celtics and Knicks, are almost certain to capture the East’s No. 1 seed, barring a complete meltdown in the absence of injured Cade Cunningham (collapsed lung).

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Who, exactly, those four teams will play in the opening round is entirely up for grabs, as just two wins separate the fifth seed from the 10th seed. The Toronto Raptors, Atlanta Hawks, Philadelphia 76ers, Orlando Magic, Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat are all jockeying for position down the stretch of a season that has surpassed 70 games.

Technically, the Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls are still alive for postseason contention, though they are locked in a different kind of race — one for lottery odds.


Playoff-bound, seeding to be determined


1. Detroit Pistons

Record: 52-19 | Net rating: 8.0 (2nd)

  • Clinched playoff berth

  • Magic number for No. 1 seed: 6

  • Remaining schedule: ATL, NOP, @MIN, @OKC, TOR, MIN, @PHI, @ORL, MIL, @CHA, @IND

  • Highest possible finish: No. 1 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 4 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 1 seed and home-court advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs.


Battling for guaranteed playoff spot


2. Boston Celtics

Record: (47-24) | Net rating: 7.8 (3rd)

  • Magic number for No. 2 seed: 11

  • Remaining schedule: OKC, ATL, @CHA, @ATL, @MIA, @MIL, TOR, CHA, @NYK, NOP, ORL

  • Highest possible finish: No. 1 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 2 seed and home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

3. New York Knicks

Record: 48-25 | Net rating: 6.8 (5th)

  • Magic number for No. 3 seed: 8

  • Remaining schedule: @CHA, @OKC, @HOU, @MEM, CHI, @ATL, BOS, TOR, CHA

  • Highest possible finish: No. 1 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 8 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 2 seed and home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 45-27 | Net rating: 4.3 (8th)

  • Magic number for No. 4 seed: 7

  • Remaining schedule: MIA, MIA, @UTA, @LAL, @GSW, IND, @MEM, ATL, @ATL, WAS

  • Highest possible finish: No. 1 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.

5. Toronto Raptors

Record: 40-31 | Net rating: 2.0 (12th)

  • Magic number for No. 5 seed: 11

  • Remaining schedule: @LAC, NOP, ORL, @DET, SAC, @MEM, @BOS, MIA, MIA, @NYK, BKN

  • Highest possible finish: No. 2 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 5 or 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff berth.

6. Atlanta Hawks

Record: 40-32 | Net rating: 1.7 (13th)

  • Magic number for No. 6 seed: 9

  • Remaining schedule: @DET, @BOS, SAC, BOS, @ORL, @BKN, NYK, @CLE, CLE, @MIA

  • Highest possible finish: No. 2 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: Out of the postseason

What’s at stake: The No. 5 or 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff berth.

7. Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 39-33 | Net rating: -0.8 (19th)

  • Magic number for No. 7 seed: 10

  • Remaining schedule: CHI, @CHA, @MIA, @WAS, MIN, DET, @SAS, @HOU, @IND, MIL

  • Highest possible finish: No. 2 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: Out of the postseason

What’s at stake: The No. 5 or 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff berth.

8. Orlando Magic

Record: 38-34 | Net rating: 0.7 (17th)

  • Magic number for No. 8 seed: Do not control own destiny

  • Remaining schedule: SAC, @TOR, PHX, ATL, @DAL, @NOP, DET, MIN, @CHI, @BOS

  • Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: Out of the postseason

What’s at stake: The No. 5 or 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff berth.

9. Charlotte Hornets (38-34)

Record: 38-34 | Net rating: 4.7 (6th)

  • Magic number for No. 9 seed: 10

  • Remaining schedule: NYK, PHI, BOS, @BKN, PHX, IND, @MIN, @BOS, DET, @NYK

  • Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: Out of the postseason

What’s at stake: The No. 5 or 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff berth.

10. Miami Heat

Record: 38-34 | Net rating: 2.4 (11th)

  • Magic number for No. 10 seed: 3

  • Remaining schedule: @CLE, @CLE, @IND, PHI, BOS, WAS, @TOR, @TOR, @WAS, ATL

  • Highest possible finish: No. 2 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: Out of the postseason

What’s at stake: The No. 5 or 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff berth.


Still technically alive


11. Milwaukee Bucks

Record: 29-42 | Net rating: -5.5 (25th)

12. Chicago Bulls

Record: 29-42 | Net rating: -4.3 (23rd)

What’s at stake: Whichever team finishes with a worse record will receive a 20.3% chance at a top-four pick and a 4.5% chance at the No. 1 pick. And whichever team finishes with a better record will get a 13.9% shot at top four and a 3% shot at No. 1.

However, if the Bucks do ultimately land the No. 1 pick in the draft lottery — or any selection higher than the New Orleans Pelicans — it will convey to the Hawks.


Wednesday’s games of consequence (all times Eastern)

Hawks at Pistons, 7 p.m.

Bulls at 76ers, 7 p.m.

Thunder at Celtics, 7:30 p.m.

Heat at Cavaliers, 7:30 p.m.

Bucks at Blazers, 10 p.m.


WESTERN CONFERENCE

Out West, the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs are bound for the top two seeds, with OKC holding a considerable lead for the league’s No. 1 overall seed.

The Los Angeles Lakers, with their recent nine-game winning streak, moved in as heavy favorites to capture the conference’s No. 3 seed. Beyond them is anyone’s guess.

Zero losses separate the Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves and Houston Rockets, who are all but guaranteed the West’s final three guaranteed playoff spots. Only one of those three teams will earn home-court advantage in the first round.

The conference’s play-in tournament field is also all but set. The Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors appear headed for the Nos. 7 and 10 seeds, respectively. And the L.A. Clippers and Portland Trail Blazers will duke it out for the Nos. 8 and 9 seeds.


Playoff-bound, seeding to be determined

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 57-15 | Net rating: 11.1 (1st)

  • Clinched playoff berth

  • Magic number for No. 1 seed: 8

  • Remaining schedule: @BOS, CHI, NYK, DET, LAL, UTA, @LAL, @LAC, @DEN, PHX

  • Highest possible finish: No. 1 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 2 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 1 seed and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.

2. San Antonio Spurs

Record: 54-18 | Net rating: 7.7 (4th)

  • Clinched playoff berth

  • Magic number for No. 2 seed: 2

  • Remaining schedule: @MEM, @MIL, CHI, @GSW, @LAC, @DEN, PHI, POR, DAL, DEN

  • Highest possible finish: No. 1 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 4 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 2 seed and home-court advantage in the Western Conference semifinals.


Battling for guaranteed playoff spot


3. Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 46-26 | Net rating: 1.2 (14th)

  • Magic number for No. 3 seed: 8

  • Remaining schedule: @IND, BKN, WAS, CLE, @OKC, @DAL, OKC, @GSW, PHX, UTA

  • Highest possible finish: No. 2 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 8 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 3 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.

4. Denver Nuggets

Record: 45-28 | Net rating: 4.4 (7th)

  • Magic number for No. 4 seed: 9

  • Remaining schedule: DAL, UTA, GSW, @UTA, SAS, POR, MEM, OKC, @SAS

  • Highest possible finish: No. 2 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 8 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.

5. Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 44-28 | Net rating: 3.6 (10th)

  • Magic number for No. 5 seed: 10

  • Remaining schedule: HOU, DET, @DAL, @DET, @PHI, CHA, @IND, @ORL, @HOU, NOP

  • Highest possible finish: No. 2 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 9 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.

6. Houston Rockets

Record: 43-28 | Net rating: 4.0 (9th)

  • Magic number for No. 6 seed: 7

  • Remaining schedule: @MIN, @MEM, @NOP, NYK, MIL, UTA, @GSW, @PHX, PHI, MIN, MIN

  • Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.

7. Phoenix Suns

Record: 40-33 | Net rating: 1.0 (15th)

  • Magic number for No. 7 seed: 7

  • Remaining schedule: UTA, @MEM, @ORL, @CHA, @CHI, HOU, DAL, @LAL, @OKC

  • Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 7 seed and home-court advantage against the No. 8 seed in their opening game of the play-in tournament.

8. Los Angeles Clippers (36-36)

Record: 36-36 | Net rating: 1.0 (16th)

  • Magic number for No. 8 seed: 9

  • Remaining schedule: TOR, @IND, @MIL, POR, SAS, @SAC, DAL, OKC, @POR, GSW

  • Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 8 seed and two chances to secure a playoff berth.

9. Portland Trail Blazers (36-37)

  • Magic number for No. 9 seed: 9

  • Remaining schedule: MIL, DAL, WAS, @LAC, NOP, @DEN, @SAS, LAC, SAC

  • Highest possible finish: No. 5 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed

What’s at stake: The No. 8 seed and two chances to secure a playoff berth.

10. Golden State Warriors (33-39)

  • Magic number for No. 10 seed: 3

  • Remaining schedule: @DAL, BKN, WAS, @DEN, SAS, CLE, HOU, SAC, LAL, @SAC, @LAC

  • Highest possible finish: No. 6 seed

  • Lowest possible finish: Out of the postseason

What’s at stake: The No. 10 seed and a berth in the play-in tournament.


Still technically alive


12. Memphis Grizzlies (24-47)

Record: 24-47 | Net rating: -3.8 (22nd)

What’s at stake:Lottery odds!


Wednesday’s games of consequence (all times Eastern)

Lakers at Pacers, 7 p.m.

Thunder at Celtics, 7:30 p.m.

Spurs at Grizzlies, 8 p.m.
MEM is eliminated from postseason contention with a loss or a GSW win

Rockets at Timberwolves, 9:30 p.m.

Mavericks at Nuggets, 10 p.m.

Nets at Warriors, 10 p.m.
GSW is locked into the play-in tournament with a loss, a MEM loss and a HOU win

Bucks at Blazers, 10 p.m.

Raptors at Clippers, 10:30 p.m.

Before yesterdayMain stream

NBA MVP rankings: Luka Dončić is rising, but can anyone take the trophy from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander?

We have examined the NBA's MVP race in greatdetail over the last few weeks, but now it is high time for another look at this year’s candidates.

The list is not so dissimilar to our top candidates since the regular season’s one-third mark, when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokić, Jalen Brunson, Luka Dončić and Victor Wembanyama — in that order — were our leading candidates. It is just a bit jumbled now, and with Cade Cunningham in Brunson’s stead as the Eastern Conference’s sole representative on this ballot. His Detroit Pistons, who hold a four-game lead for the No. 1 seed, earned him that right.

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It is weird now how the MVP ballot reflects a position-less All-NBA First Team. Will any of the 100 voters’ top-five MVP candidates look different from their All-NBA First Team? I suppose it is possible. It would not be here, if I had a vote, because of course the five most valuable players should make up your position-less All-NBA First Team.

That is, of course, if they qualify for the NBA’s 65-game rule, which requires players to participate in that many games in order to be considered for end-of-season awards.

(Bruno Rouby/Yahoo Sports Illustration)
(Bruno Rouby/Yahoo Sports Illustration)

Kawhi Leonard can miss only one more game before he is disqualified. He may not appear on anyone’s MVP ballot, since his Los Angeles Clippers are below .500, but his production should absolutely be in play for a spot on the All-NBA Second Team.

Cunningham’s MVP case is the one that is in most danger. He has missed nine games, and he is expected to miss at least the next six with a collapsed lung. To rush him back from that injury, just to qualify for end-of-year awards, might be a mistake.

Cunningham’s absence could leave the door open for Boston Celtics forward Jaylen Brown to make his way onto a ballot. Before we reveal too much, our MVP rankings …


Honorable mentions: Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics; Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks; Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves; Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers.


5. Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers

Dončić has played his way into this conversation over the Lakers’ nine-game winning streak. Over that span, he has averaged a 40-8-7 on a 63.6 true shooting percentage.

On the season, Dončić is now averaging a 33-8-8 on better than 60% true shooting. Nobody attempts more shots (22.7), 3-pointers (10.8) or free throws (10.3) a night. His usage rate (37.9%), obviously, leads the league. The Lakers score 119.1 points per 100 possessions, similar to the league’s second-best offense, when he is on the court.

Unfortunately, Los Angeles also allows 115.5 points per 100 possessions — a number that approaches the NBA’s bottom-10 defensive ratings — when he takes the floor. That figure is far better (110.1 points allowed per 100 possessions) over the past nine games, where Dončić has also improved on that end. If he can sustain that effort over the course of a full season, the 27-year-old may yet one day get his MVP.

4. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons

Recency bias may suggest that Dončić belongs higher on this list, but remember: The Pistons perform like one of the league’s few title favorites, along with Gilgeous-Alexander’s Thunder and Wembanyama’s Spurs, when Cunningham is in the lineup.

Detroit is 44-17 when the former No. 1 overall pick takes the court, a 59-win pace. Cunningham is not the team’s best defender, though he is one piece of an outfit that rates as the league’s second-best defense. He is also the sole creator for an offense that scores 119.7 points per 100 possessions (a top-two figure) when he’s on the floor.

Cunningham’s 24.5 points per game rank 13th in the NBA on decent efficiency (56.7 true shooting percentage). He could improve in that regard. But his 9.9 assists a night have generated more points (1,548) than anyone else, including Jokić, even as Detroit starts two defense-first non-shooters (Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson).

3. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets

Jokić is enjoying a typical Jokić season, which is to say: The numbers are off the charts. He is averaging a triple-double, leading the league in both rebounds (12.6) and assists (10.6) per game. Needless to say, nobody has ever done that, especially not while averaging 28 points per game on league-leading efficiency (67.6 TS%).

There is little doubt he is the game’s most impactful offensive player. The Nuggets own the NBA’s best offensive rating (120.2), and they are even better, scoring 125.1 points per 100 possessions, when Jokić is on the floor. That is just insane efficiency.

It is on the defensive end of the floor where Jokić’s MVP argument suffers. He is the anchor of the league’s 21st-rated defense, though it is a little bit better, allowing 114.7 points per 100 possessions (a middling figure), when he is actually on the court.

It does not help that his Nuggets have essentially played .500 ball since Christmas. Even as an injury-plagued roster has regained some of its health, Denver remains an inconsistent team, despite its superior offense, and that comes with porous defense.

2. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs have climbed within three games of the Thunder for the West’s No. 1 seed, and that is Wembanyama’s key to moving into the top spot on these rankings. If San Antonio can catch Oklahoma City, there is a legitimate case to be made for Wemby.

After all, he is the NBA’s most dominant defensive force. He is as impactful on that end as anyone is on offense. The Spurs allow 103.7 points per 100 possessions, more than two points better than OKC’s league-leading defense, when Wembanyama is on the court. San Antonio is a middling defensive outfit when Wemby is on the bench.

Offensively, the Spurs score 119.9 points per 100 possessions, something like the league’s second-best unit, whenever Wembanyama is on the floor. He is the NBA’s 13th-most impactful player offensively, according to Dunks and Threes’ Estimated Plus-Minus, trailing only Jokić, Gilgeous-Alexander, Dončić and 10 other dynamos.

There is a real case to be made that a 22-year-old 7-foot-5 (7-foot-7?) phenom is already the NBA’s best player, depending on how much you weigh defense against offense, though the standings do not reflect it. Yet. The Spurs are 43-13 when Wemby is in the lineup, a 63-win pace. You have to be better than that to catch the Thunder.

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder

Someone has to take the MVP trophy from Gilgeous-Alexander, who edged Jokić for the regular-season award last season, and then added a Finals MVP honor to his collection en route to his first-ever championship.

Nobody has taken it from him. Not yet.

The Thunder once again own the league’s best record — by three full games over Wembanyama’s Spurs. They operate better than the NBA’s best offense, scoring 120.4 points per 100 possessions, and better than its best defense, allowing 106 points per 100 possessions, when Gilgeous-Alexander is on the court for them.

When SGA is off the floor, Oklahoma City still performs like a 54-win team, owning the NBA’s top defense, allowing 105.2 points per 100 possessions, but its offense drops to one of the league’s worst outfits, scoring 110 points per 100 possessions.

That could be a strike against Gilgeous-Alexander in the right argument. But we should measure him against what the Thunder look like with him on the court, not how good they are when is not playing, and they look like a juggernaut with him.

Besides, SGA is averaging 31.6 points per game on 66.5% true shooting. Only one other guard has ever scored 30-plus points a night on better shooting efficiency: Stephen Curry in his unanimous MVP campaign for the 73-win Warriors in 2016.

In other words, Gilgeous-Alexander is enjoying one of the best offensive seasons ever for a guard, while serving as a cog on the league’s best defense, for the NBA’s best team. Until someone can match those credentials, the award is SGA’s to lose.

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