For months, college basketball fans have been bombarded with the notion that Duke phenom Cameron Boozer is his sport’s ultimate winner, that he has captured every championship that he has ever contested. 

Turns out that’s only 99.9% right.

Yes, Boozer led a private, all-boys Miami high school to four consecutive state titles in Florida’s top division. Yes, he also captured three straight Nike EYBL championships as the centerpiece of his AAU team and a pair of gold medals while starring for USA Basketball. Yes, he has made winning at the college level look easy too, carrying Duke to a sweep of the ACC regular season and tournament titles and the No. 1 overall seed in this year’s NCAA tournament.

But there’s one piece of hardware that the most decorated player in this year’s freshman class is missing, one empty spot in Boozer’s overcrowded trophy case. Three years ago, a collection of unheralded players at a Miami public high school dealt Boozer maybe his only meaningful loss, stunning his juggernaut Columbus High team to claim an improbable district championship.

To say that Palmetto High was the underdog entering that 2023 district playoff matchup doesn’t even begin to describe it. The Panthers were facing a Columbus team that was ranked No. 5 in the nation by MaxPreps and that had only dropped games against out-of-state juggernauts that season. 

Boozer by then had cemented himself as the nation’s top-ranked high school sophomore. His twin brother Cayden had also emerged as a ballyhooed five-star prospect. Their supporting cast included a handful of Miami-area players who have gone on to play college basketball, including current Princeton starting forward Malik Abdullahi.

The best players on Palmetto’s roster weren’t on the radar of high-profile Division I colleges. Six-foot-3 combo guard Randy Smith now plays for Miami-Dade Community College. Five-foot-11 Matthew Mairena and 5-10 Santiago Henriquez have continued their basketball careers at the NAIA level. 

The talent disparity was unmistakable the first two times that Columbus faced Palmetto that season and effortlessly swatted aside the Panthers. On Dec. 14, 2022, Boozer racked up 31 points and 12 rebounds in an 88-48 rout. The rematch wasn’t much closer six weeks later as Columbus cruised to an 84-57 blowout.

What gave Palmetto hope that a third meeting might go differently was that the Panthers had been holding something back. For weeks, Palmetto secretly practiced a brand-new offensive scheme specifically designed for Columbus. Panthers coach Alex Ordoqui felt his smaller, quicker team could succeed by spreading the floor, taking advantage of Columbus’ willingness to switch 1-through-5 and using ball screens to hunt certain mismatches.

“We had been working on that offense for more than a month but we didn’t show it in a game knowing that we were probably going to see Columbus again,” Ordoqui said. 

“We just tried to stay away from attacking Cayden and Malik and to attack some of their other defenders. We especially wanted to go at Cam, not because he was a bad defender but to force him to guard and hopefully pick up some fouls. Because, as good as the rest of their team was, if he had to sit, they were human.” 

Rather than risk having Boozer bully Palmetto’s lighter, lankier big men in the paint once again, Ordoqui also overhauled how the Panthers defended the future lottery pick. He assigned the sturdy but undersized Smith to guard Boozer and directed whichever big man was on the floor to camp out in the paint and serve as a second line of defense at the rim. 

“We picked a player or two on Columbus that we didn’t want to guard and said, ‘Hey, if that guy makes threes, we live with that,” Ordoqui said. “Let our center float in the paint. If they make shots, we shake their hand, but we have to try to take away layups and dunks because they’re not going to miss those.”

‘Rage bait’: How Palmetto upset Boozer-led Columbus

Minutes before his team took the floor, Ordoqui pulled aside Smith and Mairena to offer one final instruction. 

“Listen,  I need you guys to take every shot that you guys think is open,” Mairena recalls his coach saying. “Don’t hesitate. That’s the only way we can win this game — shooting a lot of threes and a lot of jumpers.”

Watch even a few minutes of the YouTube video of the game, and you’ll see that Smith and Mairena took their coach’s advice to heart. They combined for 12 3-pointers and for 54 of their team’s 66 points, Smith scorching the nets in the first half to bolster Palmetto’s confidence that an upset was attainable and Mairena catching fire in the fourth quarter and overtime when the Panthers needed him most. 

The game turned late in the third quarter when Boozer picked up his fourth foul with Columbus holding a narrow lead. Referees ruled that he fouled Mairena contesting a pull-up jumper from the left elbow, but even Mareina admits, “I’m going to be honest. I don’t think that was a foul, but they called it and he was so furious.”

An incredulous Boozer threw up both his arms in confusion after watching the replay and then pointed at the video board. He was still seething when he walked by the Palmetto bench after Columbus sent a substitute into the game to replace him. 

The way Mairena remembers it, someone on the Palmetto bench told Boozer to go sit down and think about what he had done. 

“Rage bait,” Mairena says with a chuckle. 

When Boozer responded with a verbal jab of his own right in front of a referee, the entire Palmetto bench leaped to its feet in unison. The referee, who had previously assessed a technical foul on Smith for trash-talking during the first quarter, did the same to Boozer, fouling him out with more than a quarter still to play.

“That’s when we knew this game was ours to take,” Mairena said. 

It wasn’t easy, of course. Even the “human” version of Columbus still could run its offense through the other Boozer twin. Cayden scored the game’s next five points to help Columbus open an eight-point lead entering the fourth quarter. 

The lead didn’t last long. Back-to-back threes from Smith and Mairena early in the fourth quarter forced a quick Columbus timeout. Palmetto only surrendered four points that entire quarter, forcing overtime by harassing Columbus into an airballed 3-pointer on its final possession of regulation.

Overtime was Mairena’s moment. He hit a contested pull-up 3-pointer to give his team the lead with less than a minute to play. Then, after Cayden Boozer tied it at the other end, Mairena used a ball screen to get a favorable matchup, drew a foul attacking off the dribble and drained a pair of free throws to put his team in front again.

When Cayden Boozer misfired on a mid-range pull-up at the other end, that clinched Palmetto’s unlikely 66-64 victory. Palmetto players spilled off the bench in celebration as the Boozers and their Columbus teammates walked off the floor in disbelief.

“That’s probably the best memory I have in my basketball career,” Mairena said.

Palmetto’s relentless effort on defense is what stands out most to Ordoqui.

“Columbus usually dunked two or three times a quarter,” Ordoqui said. “They didn’t get a single dunk that night.” 

‘That kid’s an absolute winner. He just doesn’t lose.’

For Ordoqui, the only bittersweet aspect of the victory is that Palmetto didn’t handle success as well as he would have liked. The Panthers hoped to earn a fourth crack at the Boozers in the state tournament, but they lost to Deerfield Beach in the regional semifinals and Columbus went on to hang a state title banner. 

As if competing against Columbus wasn’t already hard enough, the challenge became even tougher the next two years. Jase and Jaxon Richardson transferred from out of state to play alongside the Boozers. So did Cello Jackson. Columbus essentially became a high-school all-star team. 

Watching Boozer pile up win after win at the high school and college level has only made those at Palmetto more proud of that 2023 district title game upset. Palmetto is the only Miami-area high school that beat Columbus during Boozer’s four years there. Hanging inside Columbus’ gym are four state title and regional title banners from that time period but only three district title ones. 

“That’s what makes it so meaningful for us,” Mairena said. “Who else beat him? That kid’s an absolute winner. He just doesn’t lose.”

No one is faring much better against Boozer at the college level so far. The soon-to-be-crowned national player of the year has put up a more impressive statistical freshman season than even Cooper Flagg, leading Duke to a 34-2 record entering the Blue Devils’ Sweet 16 showdown with Big East champion St. John’s. 

While Mairena is playing on a far smaller stage at the NAIA level, he can always say that he got the better of the Boozers for one night. Friends still jokingly refer to Mairena as “The Columbus Killer.” He estimates he has rewatched that game “at least 10 times.” 

While home for spring break this week, Mairena went to the movies and ran into a high school classmate who he hadn’t seen in a while.

After exchanging hellos, Mairena’s former classmate told him that he still watches video of Palmetto’s victory over Columbus. 

“Are people still talking about that?” Mairena asked. 

Responded his friend, “Bro, you don’t even know.” 

So much for this being a quiet college basketball coaching carousel.

One of the sport’s most coveted jobs opened Tuesday night when North Carolina fired Hubert Davis less than a week after the Tar Heels blew a 19-point second-half lead in a first-round NCAA tournament loss to VCU. 

Between North Carolina’s tradition-rich history, iconic brand and ample resources, the Tar Heels should have a conga line of proven coaches eager to take the job. And yet the vast majority of elite programs that have had recent coaching vacancies have struggled to land the type of prominent names that will undoubtedly be atop North Carolina’s wish list.

Can North Carolina still land a big fish even in an era when an elite coach doesn’t necessarily need to be working at a blue blood to compete for a national title? This job search will be a litmus test. Here are a half-dozen heavy hitters that North Carolina could consider and some pros and cons to each of them.

Billy Donovan, Chicago Bulls head coach

Age: 60

Why he makes sense: There are few coaches North Carolina could target with a better résumé than that of Donovan. The three-time SEC coach of the year guided Florida to six regular-season conference titles, four Final Fours and a pair of national championships over the course of a brilliant 18-year run as head coach of the Gators. 

Donovan has spent the past 11 seasons coaching the NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder and Chicago Bulls. He has passed when other top-tier college jobs have opened, but might be in need of a fresh start with the Bulls in 12th place in the East and facing a long rebuild.

Why he doesn’t: Donovan might still be happy in the NBA and decide he prefers to stick it out with the Bulls rather than return to the college level. Then there’s also the fact that the timing isn’t ideal with the Bulls not playing their final regular-season game until April 12. 

But the biggest concern might be how drastically the college game has changed since Donovan left it more than a decade ago. Donovan is an excellent tactician and a skilled communicator, but would he be able to seamlessly adjust to the world of NIL payouts, unlimited transfers without restrictions and annual roster churn? 

Mike Carlson via Getty Images

Todd Golden, Florida coach

Age: 40

Why he makes sense: If North Carolina can’t get Donovan, why not try for the coach who returned Florida to the mountaintop? Golden became the youngest coach since Jim Valvano to win a national championship last season. He followed that up this season by leading the Gators to a second straight No. 1 seed and an outright SEC title. 

Analytically, he is cutting edge. He has also displayed a sharp eye for talent and a knack for player development, plucking the likes of Walter Clayton and Will Richard from the mid-major ranks and transforming Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon from three-star recruits into NBA prospects. Golden appears to be one of the next generation of coaching stars. 

Why he doesn’t: The first stumbling block is whether Golden would be interested. Why does Golden need to go to North Carolina when he has already shown that he can win national titles and annually compete at the highest level where he is now? 

Then there’s the matter of how much it would cost even before North Carolina ponied up to pay Golden and a new staff. If Golden leaves for another college job before April 15, his new school would owe Florida $16 million. This figure drops to $11 million on April 16.

North Carolina would also have to do its due diligence on off-court concerns about Golden. He was the subject of a four-month Title IX investigation last season regarding allegations of sexual harassment, sexual exploitation and stalking. Florida closed that investigation in January 2025 with no findings of policy violations.

Tommy Lloyd, Arizona coach

Age: 51

Why he makes sense: For years, Lloyd was Mark Few’s most trusted lieutenant at Gonzaga. It wasn’t just that Lloyd was college basketball’s finest international recruiter, bringing the likes of Domantas Sabonis, Rui Hachimura, Kelly Olynyk and Kevin Pangos to Spokane, Washington. Lloyd was also a well-rounded coach who constructed Gonzaga’s offense and was instrumental in game planning and player development.

Since becoming the head coach at Arizona four years ago, Lloyd has excelled. He has earned top-two NCAA tournament seeds in four of his first five seasons in Tucson and has the Wildcats poised to challenge for a national title this year. He has shown the ability to build elite offensive and defensive teams, to recruit elite American prospects and top-tier international talent. 

Why he doesn’t: The one element missing from Lloyd’s résumé is a deep NCAA tournament run. While he might take care of that in the next week, Lloyd’s previous Arizona teams have failed to advance beyond the Sweet 16.

Would North Carolina pay an $11 million buyout to secure a coach who has never advanced beyond the Sweet 16? And would Lloyd pack his bags and leave the West’s top program — apologies to Gonzaga and UCLA — to head to the Triangle?  

Dusty May, Michigan coach

Age: 49

Why he makes sense: After taking Florida Atlantic to back-to-back NCAA tournaments and a Final Four, May has crushed it at his first big-boy job. He has shown a keen eye for talent in the transfer portal and a knack for building rosters that fit in two seasons at Michigan. 

In a 12-day shopping spree last spring, May assembled a title contender via the transfer portal, adding skilled 7-foot-3 center Aday Mara, rim runner Morez Johnson, do-it-all forward Yaxel Lendeborg and pass-first playmaker Elliot Cadeau. That quartet has carried the Wolverines to 33 wins, including routs of Howard and Saint Louis to open NCAA tournament play. 

Why he doesn’t: Michigan has given May all the resources he needs to assemble top-tier rosters and compete for national championships. He has said repeatedly that he is very happy in Ann Arbor. 

Does he have any reason to mess with happy? Especially when one of the reasons he chose Michigan over Louisville was to avoid the media scrutiny and job pressure that comes with coaching at a traditional basketball power? 

Nate Oats, Alabama coach

Age: 51

Why he makes sense: Start with Oats’ on-court accomplishments. The offensive mastermind has won big at both Buffalo and Alabama, piling up 59 wins in his final two seasons as coach of the Bulls before leading the Crimson Tide to unprecedented heights. Alabama has advanced to the Sweet 16 or beyond in five of the past six seasons. The Tide have been no worse than fourth nationally in offensive efficiency each of the past three seasons. 

Basketball at North Carolina is more important than it will ever be at football-first Alabama. Might that appeal to Oats to go somewhere that he’ll never play second fiddle?

Why he doesn’t: The buyout is among the highest in college basketball. The school that hires Oats away from Alabama would have to pay $18 million until April 1 or $10 million after that date.

Then there’s the controversy that has followed Oats in recent years with several high-profile player arrests and poor crisis management. Is that something that North Carolina would be eager to deal with? 

TJ Otzelberger, Iowa State coach

Age: 48

Why he makes sense: It’s easy to forget that Iowa State was 2-22 the year before Otzelberger arrived. The Cyclones have made the NCAA tournament in each of Otzelberger’s five seasons in Ames, earning top-three seeds each of the past three years.

Otzelberger’s success is driven by shrewd player evaluation, a culture of grit and accountability and a defensive system that relies on using aggressive traps and ball pressure to force turnovers. Iowa State has boasted a top-13 defense nationally every season under Otzelberger and was No. 1 in the country two years ago. 

Why he doesn’t: Otzelberger has deep ties to Ames spanning multiple stints as an Iowa State assistant coach before taking over as head coach in 2021. His roots might be too deep for him to pick up and leave, though North Carolina is the sort of job that could make anyone have a wandering eye. 

Then there’s the issue of whether his blue-collar approach would translate well at a blue blood. Could he lead a team of millionaires? And would his lack of an NCAA tournament run beyond the Sweet 16 prevent North Carolina from targeting him? 

Midnight came early again for Cinderella.

All 16 teams that advanced to the second week of this year’s NCAA tournament hail from one of the five power conferences.

The only double-digit-seeded upstart that managed to crash the party is a Sean Miller-coached Texas team with a $22.4 million operating budget and an enviable NIL war chest. The closest thing to a charming underdog story left in this year’s field is a Big Ten runner-up Nebraska team making its first Sweet 16 appearance after decades of basketball irrelevance.

At least one team from outside the power conferences reached the round of 16 for 49 straight years after the NCAA tournament expanded to 32 teams in 1975. That streak ended last March when none of those schools advanced beyond the NCAA tournament’s opening weekend. Now the mid-majors have been eliminated early for a second consecutive year.

Why is March Madness becoming less mad? Why are the NCAA tournament’s giants swatting aside the giant slayers more consistently than they did just a few years ago? Jeff Eisenberg and Dan Wolken of Yahoo Sports examined what’s behind this trend and offer differing theories below.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Cinderella teams worried about NCAA tournament future can blame NIL

(By Jeff Eisenberg)

When his team opened conference tournament play earlier this month, Queens University men’s basketball coach Grant Leonard glanced into the stands and was surprised by what he saw.

Sitting courtside, Leonard said, was an SEC assistant coach who was there to get a head start scouting and recruiting a Queens player who had not yet entered the transfer portal. The SEC assistant wore school-branded apparel just like coaches do when trying to make their presence known to high school prospects while attending Peach Jam or other AAU tournaments.

“I don't think it is the right thing ethically to go to our conference tournament, sit on the floor and try to interact with my player in an elimination game,” Leonard told reporters Thursday on the eve of Queens’ first-round NCAA tournament game against Purdue. “That is my opinion; it is not a fact. Is it permissible? Maybe, maybe not. Is it ethical? In my opinion no.”

Stories like that help illustrate why the Cinderella runs that have long been the lifeblood of the NCAA tournament are rapidly becoming more scarce. The gap between college basketball’s haves and have-nots is rapidly widening because top-tier programs can offer massive NIL payouts to the best available talent and because transfer rules no longer prevent players from switching schools as often as they want without penalty.

The name-brand programs who have advanced in this year’s NCAA tournament have treated mid-major teams like their personal farm system. Their rosters are littered with players who began their college careers at a lower level, from Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg, to Louisville’s Ryan Conwell, to UCLA’s Donovan Dent, to Tennessee’s Ja’Kobi Gillepsie.

Mid-majors struggling to keep best players

Those player retention issues have eaten away at the biggest advantage that small-conference programs used to have in March. The Loyola Chicagos, Wichita States and Butlers of the past overcame the talent gap with older players who developed superior cohesiveness through years of playing together. That’s harder to pull off today with wealthier programs sliding into players’ DMs or making life-altering offers through back channels.

The ability to offer NIL payouts well into seven figures has also allowed high-majors to recruit guys who in the past would be playing professional basketball. Teams at the top of this year’s NCAA tournament bracket are loaded with prized freshmen, international prospects and proven veterans who can earn more playing college basketball than they can in overseas pro leagues, the G League or even on an NBA two-way contract. There are teams who are paying six figures to players coming off their bench.

The concentration of talent at the top of college basketball is exemplified by how the past two NCAA tournaments have unfolded. Not a single team seeded 13th or worse has advanced out of the round of 64. Every team that has made the past two Sweet 16s has come from a power conference.

Thirteen of 32 first-round games in this year’s tournament were decided by more than 20 points. The average margin of victory in the first round was 17.4, the highest since the tournament expanded in 1985, per ESPN research.

Impact of regular season

Two NCAA tournaments may be a small sample size, but regular-season results also reflect the growing chasm between top-tier teams and everyone else. There were 378 matchups this November between high-majors and non-Gonzaga teams from other conferences. The little guy won only 22 of them, according to research by Yahoo Sports.

“In the past, if you did a good job evaluating and a good job recruiting and you found guys who were a notch above your level, they wouldn’t leave because they’d have to sit out some place,” former Fairleigh Dickinson and Iona coach Tobin Anderson told Yahoo Sports in November. “Now with the portal and nonstop free agency, a good low-major or mid-major team for the most part is going to lose its best players every year.”

By the numbers, Duke, Arizona and Michigan entered this year’s NCAA tournament as three of the strongest No. 1 seeds in recent memory. Each boasted KenPom adjusted efficiency margins of at least 37.59, meaning that’s how many points that college basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy would project them to outscore the average Division I opponent by over 100 possessions.

Since the KenPom era began in 1997, only 10 teams have ever finished a season with adjusted efficiency margins higher than 35. Four of those are last year’s No. 1 seeds.

It isn’t just the No. 1 seeds who were unusually formidable this season. A total of 20 teams seeded sixth or higher entered the NCAA tournament with adjusted efficiency margins of plus-25, compared to just four at the end of the 2022-23 college basketball season and nine the year before that.

It’s the opposite story for schools from single-bid leagues, the sorts of programs who populated the seed lines at the bottom of this year’s bracket.

That’s why this has been another NCAA tournament where the giants have swatted aside the giant slayers, where the teams that advance have deep pockets, not glass slippers.

Jared C. Tilton via Getty Images

Meet the real villain(s) behind the death of Cinderella

(By Dan Wolken)

As we endure a second straight year without much mid-major magic in the NCAA tournament’s opening weekend, plenty of fingers will be pointed at the current NIL and transfer environment for killing Cinderella.

That may or may not be true. Two years is still a small sample size, and if a couple close games go the other way — Santa Clara, Siena and Wright State all had great chances in the final few minutes to take down blue-blood programs — we’re having a totally different discussion.

But, in the aggregate, I’ll acknowledge it certainly felt like the first round of the NCAA tournament was top heavy. A lot of blowouts — the first-round average margin of victory was 17.4 points, the highest since the tournament expanded in 1985. A lot of 12, 13, 14 and 15 seeds that looked significantly outclassed.

The transfer portal is an easy bête noire in this discussion. All the power conference schools are scouting mid-major rosters, and anyone who shows promise at a lower level is being offered big money to transfer. Again, I’ll acknowledge this isn’t great for mid-major programs. From a 30,000-foot view, it is harder to maintain talent and continuity across the bottom 270 or so programs in the sport.

In terms of how it’s specifically affecting the NCAA tournament, however, there’s another factor that deserves more of the blame than it’s getting.

Conference realignment.

If Cinderella is indeed on life support, it’s far more likely that the mad rush since 2010 to draw up coast-to-coast, mammoth football conferences was what put her in the ICU in the first place.

Mid-majors had proud history in NCAA tournament

Go back 15 years and look at some of these conferences that produced the iconic mid-major teams of recent vintage like Butler, VCU, Wichita State and Loyola Chicago. They are almost unrecognizable today, and you can trace the reason directly to the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC gluttonizing themselves into amorphous blobs and creating a domino effect that significantly weakened dozens of conferences below them.

And yet all those conferences continue to get automatic bids, and the quality of teams filling those slots has undeniably gotten weaker.

Let’s look at 2016 — just 10 years ago. The average pre-tournament KenPom ranking of the No. 15 seeds was 124, the average No. 14 seeds was 105, the average of No. 13 seeds was 84 and the average No. 12 seeds was 73.

Four years ago, in 2022, we had one of the craziest tournaments ever. Here were the KenPom averages: No. 15 seeds were 140, No. 14 seeds were 134, No. 13 seeds were 83, No. 12 seeds were 61. (In that tournament, a 15 seed won a first-round game, two 12 seeds won first-round games and the 4-13 games were decided by a total of 18 points.)

This year? It’s a totally different story. The 15 seed average is around 179, the 14 seed average is roughly 142, the 13 seed average is 113, the 12 seed average is 76.

As you can see, it’s very clear in the numbers that the quality of automatic bid winners filling these Cinderella seed lines has declined over time. The same conferences that put good teams in the tournament are now producing weaker champions. And that’s happened at the same time fringe NBA prospects are staying in college longer because of NIL, making the top layer of the sport stronger.

But when you’re talking about the NCAA tournament, where a limited number of teams from that top layer are playing the cream of the crop from smaller conferences, it’s crucial to understand that many of those conferences are now a shell of what they once were due to realignment.

Realignment erodes lower-level conferences

When the Big East reformed as a basketball-only league in 2013 because it got tired of being jerked around by football realignment, it weakened the A-10 by taking Xavier and Butler, and the Missouri Valley by inviting Creighton. The A-10 responded by taking VCU and George Mason from the CAA, Davidson from the Southern Conference, then Loyola from the Missouri Valley several years later.

The Valley, having lost Creighton, Loyola and Wichita State (which bolted to the American), backfilled with Belmont and Murray State, which took the two best programs from the Ohio Valley Conference, which in turn added Little Rock and Western Illinois.

Meanwhile, the American losing SMU, Houston, UCF and Cincinnati to power conferences sparked a raid of Conference USA, which caused that league to take a grab bag of schools from the CAA, Atlantic Sun and Missouri Valley.

This has happened over and over across all these realignment moves. As one league scrambles for survival by taking the best members of a league just below them in the pecking order, it erodes the strength of each conference down the chain.

For a long time, leagues like the MVC, CAA and Horizon could reliably put competitive 12 or 13 seeds in the tournament because they had a core of solid programs and good brands. Now, the membership of those leagues is totally different, but they’re still getting the same automatic bids.

You don’t even need to mention NIL or the transfer portal to see very easily how the quality of teams filling those bids could slip, which is now showing up clearly in the numbers. And if you get a year like this one where several of the No. 1 seeds in the mid- and low-major leagues lost their conference tournaments, it takes the quality of the No. 12-15 seeds down another notch and you end up with the kind of blowouts we saw on Thursday and Friday.

The NCAA tournament is not a microcosm of the sport. College basketball has never been as equal as the March Madness branding makes it look. With 350-plus teams, the gap between the haves and have-nots has always been massive.

But in a one-off event like this, how you sort the teams in the field matters significantly. If the 100th-best team in the country was a typical 14 seed a decade ago and now the typical 14 seed is the 142nd-best team, that’s a huge difference driving a decline in upsets.

Is that an issue the NCAA needs to address? Perhaps. But if we’re going to worry about the death of Cinderella, we need to correctly identify what killed her. NIL and the transfer portal are only part of the story — and maybe even the smallest part compared to 15 years of realignment shock coming home to roost.

Last November, 365 Division I men’s college basketball teams began the season with dreams of advancing to the NCAA tournament’s second week.

The 16 still alive all have one thing in common: They each hail from a power conference.

Six are from the Big Ten, raising the possibility that league could finally end its 26-year national title drought. Four are from the SEC, though regular season champion Florida surprisingly is not among them. Three are from the Big 12. UConn and St. John’s hail from the Big East. And Duke is the ACC’s lone team left standing.

Thirteen of the 16 remaining teams are No. 5 seeds or better, but even this historically chalky NCAA tournament did produce some surprises. Nebraska is playing in its first-ever Sweet 16. Iowa and St. John’s haven’t been since 1999. Ten of the 16 remaining teams have never won the NCAA tournament. 

Who has a chance to climb ladders and cut down the nets in Indianapolis? Here’s a look at how I’d rank this year’s Sweet 16 from most likely to least likely to win the national championship:

1. Michigan Wolverines (33-3)

How they got here: Defeated Howard (16), Saint Louis (9)

Up next: Alabama (4)

Outlook: What makes Michigan so lethal is more than just its positional size. The Wolverines overwhelm opponents because of how seamlessly their pieces fit together. Over the course of 12 days last spring, Dusty May assembled a title contender via the transfer portal, adding skilled 7-foot-3 center Aday Mara; rim runner, rebounder and interior defender Morez Johnson; do-it-all 6-9 forward Yaxel Lendeborg; and pass-first playmaker Elliot Cadeau. That quartet has carried the Wolverines to 33 wins, including routs of Howard and Saint Louis to open NCAA tournament play. “You see a lot of teams that are poorly constructed that pay a lot of money for their teams,” Saint Louis coach Josh Schertz said Saturday. “Dusty's teams, the pieces really fit well.”

Bjorn Franke via Getty Images

2. Arizona Wildcats (34-2)

How they got here: Defeated LIU (16), Utah State (9)

Up next: Arkansas (4)

Outlook: Arizona blew away overmatched LIU and overcame pesky Utah State. Now comes the hard part. Twelve times since 2001, Arizona advanced to the NCAA tournament’s second weekend. Five times, the Wildcats made the Elite Eight. Each trip ended in heartbreak, from a near miss against Kansas in 2003, to Illinois’ stunning 15-point comeback in 2005, to Jamelle Horne’s game-winning 3-pointer rimming out against UConn in 2011, to back-to-back narrow losses to Frank Kaminsky and Wisconsin in 2014 and 2015. Can this year’s Arizona team ride its balanced scoring and ferocious interior defense to the program’s first Final Four in a quarter century? Anything less would be a disappointment.

3. Houston Cougars (30-6)

How they got here: Defeated Idaho (15), Texas A&M (10)

Up next: Illinois (3)

Outlook: There was never any doubt that Houston was going to seize the opportunity to play in a South regional less than three miles from its campus. The Cougars won their first two NCAA tournament games by 30-plus points, joining 1998 Arizona, 1999 Duke and 2008 North Carolina as teams who have achieved that feat. Now the question is whether playing close to home can help Houston get through the likes of Illinois and either Florida or Nebraska to advance to another Final Four. This year’s Cougars aren’t quite the defensive juggernaut that Sampson’s previous teams have been, but their mix of proven veterans and heralded freshmen make them one of the five biggest threats in this NCAA tournament field to win six games.

4. Duke Blue Devils (34-2)

How they got here: Defeated Siena (16), TCU (9)

Up next: St. John’s (5)

Outlook: While surprisingly vulnerable Duke survived a major scare against 16th-seeded Siena and struggled to put away TCU for 30 minutes, the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament wasn’t all bad for the Blue Devils. The return of center Patrick Nnongba from injury should help Duke unleash the best version of Cam Boozer. It’s no surprise that Duke’s vaunted defense is most stifling when Boozer defends opposing power forwards and cedes rim-protection duties to Nnongba. What’s more interesting is that Boozer’s 2-point field goal percentage increases by 9%, per CBB Analytics, when Nnongba is on the floor with him. They complement one another well and have obvious chemistry, as shown by plays like this one. 

5. Michigan State Spartans (27-7)

How they got here: Defeated North Dakota State (14), Louisville (6)

Up next: UConn (2)

Outlook: Michigan State point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. says his favorite thing about passing “is seeing my other teammates score and the joy and the excitement it brings them.” As the nation’s assists leader puts it, “If they’re happy, I’m happy.” Fears has had a lot of happy teammates this season as he has emerged as the engine and primary playmaker for a Michigan State attack ranked sixth nationally since March 1, per Bart Torvik’s T-rankings. Fears dished out 16 assists Saturday against Louisville, the most by a Big Ten player in an NCAA tournament game in the past 50 years. The all-Big Ten selection now has a ridiculous 27 assists in two NCAA tournament games. 

6. UConn Huskies (31-5)

How they got here: Defeated Furman (15), UCLA (7)

Up next: Michigan State (3)

Outlook: Why was UConn able to put away UCLA on Sunday night despite getting a combined two points out of Solo Ball and Silas Demary Jr.? Because Alex Karaban isn’t ready for his storied college career to end. The two-time national champ put the Huskies on his back, piling up a career-high 27 points on everything from spot-up 3-pointers, to driving layups, to put-backs through contact. UConn coach Dan Hurley went out of his way to highlight Karaban during his introductory remarks to the media after the game. “This man’s greatness and what he’s done in college basketball for four years, literally every outlet should be doing a story,” Hurley said. “No one has been better in college sports the past four years in terms of being a winner.”

7. St. John’s Red Storm (30-6)

How they got here: Defeated Northern Iowa (12), Kansas (4)

Up next: Duke (1)

Outlook: It didn’t matter to Dylan Darling that he was in the midst of a massive shooting slump or that he had missed all four shots he’d taken. The St. John’s guard still wanted to call his own number with Sunday’s second-round matchup against Kansas on the line. “Run power,” Darling told Rick Pitino, referring to a high back-screen pick-and-roll. Pitino agreed and then thought to himself, “Wait a second, he hasn’t scored a bucket and he wants to run a play for himself.” The confidence of Darling paid off in a big way for the Johnnies. His driving layup as the final horn sounded secured a 67-65 victory that sent his team to its first Sweet 16 since 1999. “To be honest, the ball left my hands and I hit the ground, and I didn't even see the ball go in,” Darling said. “I just heard everybody going crazy.”

Jamie Schwaberow via Getty Images

8. Purdue Boilermakers (29-8)

How they got here: Defeated Queens (15), Miami (7)

Up next: Texas (11)

Outlook: Purdue did not live up to expectations during the regular season, but the Boilermakers seem to have regained their swagger since the postseason began. They won four games in four days at the Big Ten tournament, toppling Michigan in the title game. Then they overwhelmed Queens in their NCAA tournament opener and handled a Miami team with the sort of wing athletes that often give Purdue trouble. One concern for Purdue heading into the West regional is the health of guard CJ Cox, a knock-down shooter and the Boilermakers’ best on-ball defender. Cox went down against Miami with what Matt Painter described as a hyperextended knee. When asked if Cox would play against Texas next week, Painter said, “We'll kind of see how treatment goes and everything to see what his status is.”

9. Iowa State Cyclones (29-7)

How they got here: Defeated Tennessee State (15), Kentucky (7)

Up next: Tennessee (6)

Outlook: So much for Iowa State being vulnerable against Kentucky without All-American Joshua Jefferson. The Cyclones weathered an ice-cold shooting start from behind the arc, pulling ahead by halftime and extending their second-half advantage to as much as 23 points. Now the question is whether Jefferson’s sprained left ankle will heal quickly enough for him to be able to play against Tennessee next week. Jefferson has an MRI scheduled for Monday morning, according TJ Otzelberger. The 6-9 senior is holding out hope that last Friday’s first-round victory over Tennessee State wasn’t his final game in a Cyclones jersey. He told the Associated Press, “Knowing that I have a chance Friday to try to get back healthy and get back out there is huge for me.” 

10. Illinois Fighting Illini (26-8)

How they got here: Defeated Penn (14), VCU (11)

Up next: Houston (2)

Outlook: Could this finally be the year that the Big Ten ends its 26-year title drought? The conference certainly has to feel optimistic about its chances after sending a Big Ten-record six teams to the Sweet 16. The litmus test for whether Illinois is a true national title contender this season will arrive Thursday when the Illini roll into Houston to face the Cougars 2.5 miles from their campus. That will be a showdown between one of college basketball’s most potent offenses this season and a disruptive defense that forces turnovers, blocks shots and gives up nothing easy at the rim.

11. Alabama Crimson Tide (25-9)

How they got here: Defeated Hofstra (13), Texas Tech (5)

Up next: Michigan (1)

Outlook: Perhaps we were a little premature burying Alabama after its second-leading scorer was arrested on felony drug charges the morning after Selection Sunday. The Crimson Tide didn’t skip a beat without Aden Holloway’s scoring, playmaking and 43.8% 3-point shooting. Neither of Alabama’s opening-weekend opponents put any real game pressure on the Crimson Tide. Alabama pulled away from Hofstra for a 90-70 first-round win and then opened a 24-point halftime lead over Texas Tech en route to another blowout. Senior guard Latrell Wrightsell stepped up the most in Holloway’s absence, tallying 24 points against Texas Tech. The Tide will need Wrightsell and other role players to stay hot from behind the arc to pose a serious threat to Michigan next week.

12. Nebraska Cornhuskers (28-6)

How they got here: Defeated Troy (13), Vanderbilt (5)

Up next: Florida (1)

Outlook: Nebraska didn’t just shed the inglorious label of the only power-conference program never to win an NCAA tournament game. The Huskers also outlasted Vanderbilt by the slimmest possible margin to secure a spot in their first Sweet 16. Trailing by two and needing a miracle to stave off elimination, Vanderbilt guard Tyler Tanner let fly from beyond mid-court. Tanner’s aim looked true until the ball caromed off the backboard, spun all the way round the rim and bounced out. "When that thing was up in the air, I was like, 'Oh, man, that's going in," Nebraska coach Fred Hoiberg recalled. His son also assumed the worst. Said point guard Sam Hoiberg, "I think it took me half a second to register that it didn't go in.”

13. Arkansas Razorbacks (28-8)

How they got here: Defeated Hawaii (13), High Point (12)

Up next: Arizona (1)

Outlook: Point guard Darius Acuff is Arkansas’ offensive catalyst, a dynamic scorer, unselfish playmaker and ruthless closer. The freshman phenom has raised his scoring average to 30.2 points in five postseason games, leading Arkansas to the SEC tournament title and a fifth Sweet 16 in the past six years. Acuff unleashed the best version of himself in Saturday’s closing minutes after High Point tied the score at 83. The projected lottery pick scored a pair of driving layups, then finished off the tournament’s lone remaining Cinderella with a cold-blooded 3. While Arkansas’ olé defense could be its undoing moving forward, the offensive formula isn’t complicated. As John Calipari puts it, “We play it through Darius and he just makes plays.”

14. Tennessee Volunteers (24-11)

How they got here: Defeated Miami Ohio (11), Virginia (3)

Up next: Iowa State (2)

Outlook: Time to retire all your misguided social media memes about Rick Barnes falling short of expectations in the NCAA tournament. Tennessee is back in the Sweet 16 for the fourth straight season, an active streak that only Alabama and Houston can match or exceed. A Vols team that squandered five double-digit leads this season appeared to be in danger of letting a nine-point second-half lead against Virginia slip away on Sunday. The Cavaliers edged in front in the closing minutes before Tennessee came up with a string of defensive stops, turned a few of those into buckets and went 9-for-10 from the free throw line down the stretch to secure an all-important win.

15. Texas Longhorns (21-14)

How they got here: Defeated NC State (11), BYU (6), Gonzaga (3)

Up next: Purdue (2)

Outlook: Who says this NCAA tournament is lacking a charming underdog story? Plucky upstart Texas has come to the rescue! An underachieving Longhorns team that barely snuck into the field of 68 took advantage of the fresh start. They ripped off three victories in five days to become the sixth team to advance from the First Four to the Sweet 16 and the first since 2021 UCLA. Texas is the only double-digit seed still alive in this year’s NCAA tournament, but the Longhorns shouldn’t be discounted as a Final Four threat. Matas Vokietaitis has emerged as one of college basketball’s elite centers, he’s surrounded by an array of perimeter shotmakers and the Longhorns are peaking at the right time.

16. Iowa Hawkeyes (23-12)

How they got here: Defeated Clemson (8), Florida (1)

Up next: Nebraska (4)

Outlook: With Iowa trailing top-seeded Florida by two and eight seconds to go in regulation, Alvaro Folgueiras knew the Hawkeyes needed a hero. The sharpshooting forward approached point guard Bennett Stirtz and promised him, “I'm going to be ready and I'm going to make it.” Those words were ringing in Stirtz’s ears moments later as he shed his defender, zoomed down court and saw Florida’s Thomas Haugh leave Folgueiras to help stop the basketball. Stirtz dished to Folgueiras spotted up in the corner. Folgueiras then drilled the game-winning 3-pointer, sending Iowa to its first Sweet 16 since 1999. “He’s got ultra confidence,” Stirtz said. “Irrational confidence,” Iowa coach Ben McCollum corrected him.  

As the final shot hung in the air, Rienk Mast had the perfect view.

He watched in horror from his seat on Nebraska's bench as Vanderbilt guard Tyler Tanner let fly from beyond mid-court, and his shot appeared alarmingly true.  

"It was right on line," Mast said.

What would have been one of the greatest NCAA tournament buzzer beaters of all time will instead be remembered as the ultimate near-miss. Tanner's prayer hit the backboard, circled every part of the rim and bounced out, preserving fourth-seeded Nebraska's 74-72 second-round victory over fifth-seeded Vanderbilt.

When his shot did not fall, Tanner fell flat on his back, put his hands on his head and then slammed the arena floor in frustration. Heartbroken Vanderbilt teammates and coaches bowed their heads or cried out in anguish as their program-record 27-win season ended one victory shy of the NCAA tournament's second weekend.

Asked by reporters later if he thought his shot was going in, Tanner nodded.

Voice barely above a whisper, he added, "It hurts pretty bad being that close."

For Nebraska, the sight of Tanner's shot rimming out elicited far different emotions. The Huskers went from having their NCAA tournament life flash before their eyes to celebrating their school's first-ever Sweet 16 trip.

Nebraska coach Fred Hoiberg was still shaking with nerves and adrenaline minutes after the game ended.

"When that thing was up in the air, I was like, 'Oh man, that's going in,'" he recalled

Nebraska point guard Sam Hoiberg also assumed the worst.

"My heart sank as that ball went in the hoop and then went out," he said. "I think it took me half a second to register that it didn't go in."

Nebraska leading scorer Pryce Sandfort was even more dramatic when describing his emotions as the shot nearly went down.

"Yeah, I just about died," he said.

Nebraska was certainly due some good fortune on the basketball floor after decades of abject misery. This is famously the only power-conference program that had never won an NCAA tournament game prior to Thursday's first-round annihilation of 13th-seeded Troy. The Huskers had only even made the NCAA tournament eight times prior to this season.

A massive turnout of Nebraska fans descended upon Oklahoma City to watch the best team in program history end the drought on Thursday and then win a back-and-forth nail-biter against Vanderbilt two nights later. There was so much red in the building that you'd have thought both games were played in Lincoln.

While Nebraska will look forward to trying to continue its run against either top-seeded Florida or ninth-seeded Iowa next week in Houston, Vanderbilt will stew at home about how close it came. Vanderbilt coach Mark Byington first said the Commodores were "a play away" from winning. Then he corrected himself and said they were "an inch away from being in the Sweet 16."

"It's going to take awhile for us to get over, " Byington continued, "but I think there's going to be a point where we'll look back and think of the unbelievable journey this season has been."

Turns out Cinderella isn’t dead yet.

A plucky double-digit-seeded upstart who barely snuck into the NCAA tournament ripped off three upsets in five days to earn its place in next week’s Sweet 16.

They sank a last-second fadeaway jump shot on Tuesday to beat NC State and advance out of the First Four. They survived AJ Dybantsa’s 35-point scoring barrage two nights later to likely end the projected top-three draft pick’s BYU career. And they toppled third-seeded Gonzaga 74-68 in front of a hostile crowd on Saturday to prevent the Zags from making the NCAA tournament’s second weekend for the 10th time in 11 years.

Who is this overachiever punching above its weight class? This little-known longshot poised to introduce itself to the nation? Say hello to Texas, the closest thing to a charming underdog story this chalky NCAA tournament has left.  

On the same day that Texas A&M crumbled against Houston, that VCU offered little resistance against Illinois and that High Point faded late, only Texas seized its opportunity to bust brackets. The 11th-seeded Longhorns are now the lone double-digit seed left in an NCAA tournament dominated by favorites for the second consecutive year. 

“Yeah, I don't think we ever really want to sign up to be the Cinderella story,” first-year Texas coach Sean Miller said. “Because we are the University of Texas and we represent the SEC.”

Texas becomes the sixth team to advance from the First Four to the Sweet 16, joining 2021 UCLA, 2018 Syracuse, 2014 Tennessee, 2013 LaSalle and 2011 VCU. The Longhorns won in Dayton, took a cross-country flight to Portland and won two more games on a short turnaround.  What they’ve achieved is impressive even if they don’t embrace the Cinderella role.

C. Morgan Engel via Getty Images

Only a week ago, Texas gathered to watch the Selection Show unsure if it would hear its name. The Longhorns had dropped five of their previous six games, including an opening-round SEC tournament loss to Ole Miss, to slip from a projected No. 9 seed to the edge of the at-large cutline. 

When the selection committee gave Texas new life, the Longhorns held a players-only meeting where guard Dailyn Swain said they talked about needing “a chance.” A talented collection of transfers and holdovers from the previous Texas regime finally came together in a way that it previously hadn’t. 

“We didn't end the regular season the way we wanted to,” Swain added. “But we never gave up on each other and that grew us closer.”

The continued development of Lithuanian center Matas Vokietaitis has also been critical to Texas’ NCAA tournament revival. Vokietaitis has averaged 18.3 points and 11 rebounds in the Longhorns three victories, overwhelming BYU’s undersized frontcourt on Thursday and then holding his own against Gonzaga All-American candidate Graham Ike two days later. 

With Vokietaitis controlling the paint and Swain, Jordan Pope and Tramon Mark providing perimeter shot-making, an already efficient Texas offense has put up nearly 1.2 points per possession in its last two games. The Longhorns have also defended uncharacteristically well in spurts, limiting NC State to 36.8% shooting and holding Gonzaga to just three points over the final four-plus minutes of the first half. 

“We're a much better team right now than we would have been a month ago,” Miller said. “I think we're playing our best, everybody wants to play their best in March, and we just so happen to be doing it.”

Give Miller credit for a key decision that helped get Texas over the finish line against Gonzaga. With the Longhorns ahead by one and needing a basket to avoid giving the Zags a chance to win on their final possession, Miller inserted forward Cam Heide into the game even though the Purdue transfer had only played 13 minutes and had yet to hit a shot.

Heide, Miller said, is Texas’ “best 3-point shooter.” Miller “didn’t think it made any sense” not to have him on the floor because of the potential for a broken play resulting in an open look from behind the arc. 

What Miller predicted is exactly what happened. The Gonzaga defense collapsed around Mark, he kicked it to Heide in the corner and the veteran forward buried a 3-pointer to essentially clinch the Texas victory.  

“It was great to see him knock it in,” Miller said. “I was really, really happy for him. I might have even said, ‘I'm putting you in to make a shot’ and again, when it happens, it's almost too good to be true.”

Now Texas moves on to face either Purdue or Miami in the Sweet 16 in San Jose. One of the biggest brands in all of college sports will assume the unlikely role of giant slayers as they try to make it to the program’s first Final Four since 2003.

Just don’t label Texas as Cinderella. 

Even in a tournament with no other surviving double-digit seeds, the slipper doesn’t quite fit.