April has arrived! The NFL Draft is less than a month away, and with it, fantasy football drafts will be on the horizon. Whether you’re prepping to draft rookies in a dynasty league or shooting for the stars in August drafts, this story is a great place to start.

One stat for rookie WRs is all we need here to avoid lower upside players and increase our odds of finding the next star: Target Share.

The parameters we’re working with:

• Since 2021

• Power-5 WRs Only

• Round 1-3 selections

• Removing the extreme college slot WRs

Adjusted Target Share: +2% for each Round 1-3 WR in the player’s college WR room

Players with higher target shares in college often possess a more well-rounded game. They are not one-dimensional gadget WRs or outside jump-ball specialists. Players with lower target shares in college won’t always be NFL busts, but (way) more often than not, they will at minimum be limited to becoming role players rather than 8+ target/game stars.

You want your WR above the 25% mark. The late-round WRs get a little more hope, and the first-rounders have an incredible hit rate.

Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State Sun Devils

The highest among these prospects by a considerable margin is Arizona State wideout Jordyn Tyson. At 33%, he is below only Drake London, Malik Nabers and DeVonta Smith, all of whom have produced a top-15 fantasy season early in their careers. Tyson’s target share could be even higher, as it was over 35% before his final two games when he was limited by injuries.

That’s the key for Tyson. He’s as talented as any player in this class, but his hamstring injury is extremely serious. If he can stay healthy in Year 1 and beyond, he has a great shot of being a target hog in the league.

Denzel Boston, Washington Huskies

The most consistent critique I’ve seen around Denzel Boston is the lack of separation in his game. This data would fight against that. Even as a 6’4” X-receiver, Boston was well above the 25% line, nearly the exact same as former Washington WR Rome Odunze (who was positively adjusted for playing with Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk). Although he has his flaws, Boston was able to avoid contested catches more often than one would think. 

Although high target shares are a positive sign, the more important signal here is the negative one. Players with high draft capital and low target shares have a HORRIBLE track record in recent years. Below is the Jump Scare Box.

Omar Cooper Jr., Indiana Hoosiers

The main prospect I’m worried about is Omar Cooper Jr. He could carve out a nice role in the NFL as a playmaking YAC WR, but the odds of him becoming a dominant fantasy WR look slim. Just look at the other names in the box above: Jonathan Mingo, Xavier Legette, Kadarius Toney, Keon Coleman, Quentin Johnston, Ja’Lynn Polk, etc. Brian Thomas Jr. is what you would hope for, and even that now looks iffy.

The best outlook is Luther Burden III; however, he posted an extremely high target share the year prior at 33%! A poor final year with bad circumstances is the only one shown above. Cooper was out-targeted by teammate Elijah Sarratt, and in games with Sarratt healthy, Cooper’s target share was even lower than the number shown on the graph. He will need a creative playcaller and a unique opportunity to fully capitalize on his skill set in the NFL.

Carnell Tate, Ohio State Buckeyes

This isn’t the end for Carnell Tate but rather an obstacle. He is positively adjusted for having Jeremiah Smith alongside him (although one could argue that 2% is not enough for Smith of an adjustment), yet he only sits at a 22% target share in his final year. Compared to the other five Round 1 Buckeye receivers on this graph, he’s the only one lower than 26%. Tate is likely to be a top-10 pick, which would be a rarity for the college volume he saw.

He’s only 21 years old, incredible on contested catches and is built to be an outside NFL receiver. Will he be the next year-in, year-out fantasy WR1? That’s my concern. I’d say the more likely positive outcome would be Tee Higgins, one of the best WR2s in fantasy (and in the NFL) — unlikely to see 150+ targets yet could thrive with 10-TD seasons.