The moment Darryn Peterson stepped onto campus at Kansas, he was in contention to go first in the 2026 NBA Draft. But after the cramping saga and a season full of up-and-down performances, his status as a top-three lock is in doubt. Peterson could very well answer those questions over the next two months and reclaim the driver’s seat. But for now, this mock explores the distinct possibility that he slips, and which teams are best positioned to capitalize on that fall.

The chaos at the bottom of the NBA standings has produced the grandest display of tanking in recent memory, which will lead to lottery reform in May. But NBA teams have made this choice because of how deep this class is with players built to sustain long careers. At the top, BYU forward AJ Dybantsa has emerged as the new favorite to go first. Duke's Cameron Boozer is coming off a historic freshman year. Neither will be in Indianapolis this weekend, but the Final Four is still loaded with first-round talent.

Illinois freshman Keaton Wagler leads a European-heavy roster against a UConn team that just completed a 19-point comeback on the back of a dominant interior effort from center Tarris Reed, a clutch shot from senior forward Alex Karaban, and the buzzer-beater of a lifetime from freshman wing Braylon Mullins.

Arizona-Michigan is the headlining battle between two top seeds, and it features a prospect showcase on both sides. The Wolverines could send three players into the first round with forward Yaxel Lendeborg, center Aday Mara, and forward Morez Johnson, and Arizona could do the same with guard Brayden Burries, forward Koa Peat, and forward Motiejus Krivas.

With all that in mind, here's where my mock draft stands before the Final Four:

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1. Washington Wizards

AJ Dybantsa, 6-9, BYU freshman forward

Dybantsa led the nation in scoring as a freshman by averaging 25.5 points for a top-25 team. Players his size, at 6-foot-9, are not supposed to move with the herky-jerky elasticity that Dybantsa does. He can dunk over defenders. He can stop on a dime and fade away from midrange. And he can catch fire from behind the line too. BYU head coach Kevin Young said Dybantsa’s scoring talent is “in rare air with some of the greats.” Over the course of his freshman year, he began to make dramatic progress as a passer, too, as shown with his cross-court, bullseye passes to find shooters.

If the Wizards land him with the top pick, they could be getting the face of the franchise they need to headline a young roster with some appealing talents, such as center Alex Sarr, wing Kyshawn George, and guard Tre Johnson. And, perhaps, veteran All-Stars Trae Young and Anthony Davis could return healthy next season and help Dybantsa win as a rookie.

2. Indiana Pacers

Cameron Boozer, 6-9, Duke freshman forward

Boozer’s college career ended with a heartbreaking blown lead in the Elite 8. But after winning at every other stage of his basketball life, Boozer might quickly get back to his winning ways if he lands with a team that has Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, Ivica Zubac, and a bunch of other quality talent.

Boozer gets knocked for a perceived lack of upside, but he’s a do-it-all offensive talent who can post up, run pick-and-rolls, set screens, spot up, and crash the boards. He doesn’t need to rely on bully ball to make an impact as a scorer or passer. Defensively, some of the questions about him popped up in Duke’s Elite 8 loss to UConn: He wasn’t big enough to defend Tarris Reed, and he got smoked by Alex Karaban on a key 3-pointer on the perimeter. But the Pacers would offer better support around him, and he’s already proven to be a high IQ, hard-working player who will keep working to improve his weaknesses and sharpen his strengths. 

3. Brooklyn Nets

Darius Acuff, 6-3, Arkansas freshman guard

I said on my podcast in February that Peterson was no longer a safe bet to be the first pick. In the two months since, the sportsbook markets have begun to reflect the reality that Peterson is no longer the favorite. That could change depending on how the board falls, but there’s also a chance Peterson could fall even lower than third. Some general managers around the league value Acuff over Peterson, as The Stein Line reported.

Acuff is not as tall as Peterson, and he’s far worse as a defender, but he’s a wiry scorer who can get a bucket from anywhere on the floor with a quick trigger, slippery handle, and a feel for manipulating defenses. And much like Peterson, Acuff can thrive off-ball too as a shooter and cutter. Acuff entered college with a scoring reputation, but has emerged as a skilled, low-turnover playmaker; he looks like a future All-Star who can toggle between a score-first or pass-first approach. Plus, he displays leadership qualities, which some executives view as a key ingredient for a projected lead shot-creator over Peterson, who’s more quiet and keeps to himself. As for Brooklyn, even after drafting a handful of guards last year, the Nets are still badly in need of a lead dog. Acuff could be that guy.

4. Sacramento Kings

Caleb Wilson, 6-10, North Carolina freshman big

Wilson is arguably the most gifted athlete in the draft class. He's 6-10 with springs for legs, and when he's flying above the rim, finishing through contact, and chasing down everything in his area code, he looks like a future cornerstone. That is why by the time the draft rolls around, some teams might favor him over Peterson. But the case against Wilson is pretty clear too. Despite all his positives, he hasn’t shown consistency as a shooter at any level. Then a broken left hand in February and a fractured right thumb in March ended his season before he could prove himself on the biggest stage. If the Kings were to draft him, it’s a gamble that he’s a higher upside player because of his size. But he’s raw and it might take a while to find out what he’ll become.

5. Utah Jazz

Darryn Peterson, 6-6, Kansas freshman guard

Peterson is the most tantalizing puzzle in this draft class. The shot-making is real. He can pull up from anywhere and get to his spots. Plus he’s 6-6 and plays with a fluidity that just screams superstar. Not to mention he’s a defensive playmaker with the tools to guard multiple positions and the approach to impact the game even if he’s not scoring. There’s a strong possibility that teams are making a mistake letting him fall out of the top-3. But league sources have said since midseason that there’s a chance Peterson could slip depending on how his medical report looks after injury issues derailed his freshman year.

Between the cramping saga, the missed time, the lack of apparent athletic pop, and the stretches where he played heavy minutes but struggled to produce offensively, there’s a lot to be concerned about. At some point, though, Peterson’s upside will be too much to pass up. In this mock, that’s the Jazz, who similarly weren’t afraid to take forward Ace Bailey with this same pick one year ago. And they are looking wise for doing so with Ace flashing star qualities in his own right. A team like the Jazz could ultimately be the best-case scenario for Peterson anyway: He’d join a roster full of high-level talent with Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Keyonte George. There wouldn’t be pressure on him to be the savior straight away. Much like Bailey, the only goal would be to grow.

6. Dallas Mavericks

Keaton Wagler, 6-6, Illinois freshman guard

Wagler was never expected to be a one-and-done, and yet here he is, as the star freshman of a Final Four team. He's not an elite vertical athlete, as evidenced by his zero dunks on the year. But he is 6-6 with a long wingspan, has elite footwork, can decelerate on drives, and has an excellent feel for the game. As Mark Titus said on my podcast last week: He’s an American, but he plays with a European-style feel like the rest of his Illinois teammates who are international recruits.

There’s a chance Wagler goes much higher than this, but if he lands with Dallas it’s hard to imagine a better situation. Kyrie Irving is a different style point guard, but could teach the intricacies of finishing below the rim. They could complement each other in the short-term by trading on-ball and off-ball reps. And in the long-term, Wagler could ascend alongside a superstar in Cooper Flagg.

7. Atlanta Hawks (via New Orleans)

Brayden Burries, 6-4, Arizona freshman guard

With Arizona up 13 with only 3:20 to go in the Elite 8, Burries dove head first for a loose ball, grabbed it, then flipped it to his teammate for an open layup. Some players would’ve relaxed with the big lead, but Burries stays pedal to the metal. While that sums up one of his most attractive qualities, watch Arizona in the Final Four and you’ll see he’s not just a hustle guy.

Burries projects as a top-10 pick as a physical, versatile scorer who can beat you from all three levels. He's a methodical creator rather than an explosive one, and his shooting history before Arizona gives scouts reason to wonder whether the efficiency is real or a blip. But the Hawks could make that bet because, even if he doesn’t pop as an on-ball star, he fits their growing identity as a selfless, hard-working team that shares the ball and defends hard for all 48 minutes.

8. Memphis Grizzlies

Nate Ament, 6-10, Tennessee freshman wing

Players who can handle, shoot off the dribble, and stand at 6-10 don’t grow on trees. This physical foundation kept Ament in lottery consideration even after a dreadful start to his freshman season when he struggled to score efficiently and make an impact defensively. But over the second half of the year for Tennessee, he flipped a switch and shots began to fall. He averaged 23.8 points over a six-game stretch in January and February that reminded everyone why he was a top recruit in the country. Then he dealt with an ankle injury that ruined his momentum entering March. Maybe it won’t matter to a rebuilding team like the Grizzlies, who could decide to bet on his long-term upside and see him as a steal at this point.

9. Chicago Bulls

Kingston Flemings, 6-4, Houston freshman guard

Flemings entered the season as the least-heralded of Houston's stacked freshman class, but he played his way into the top-10 conversation while his higher-ranked teammates played their way out of it. That’s one of the reasons why Houston wasn’t able to reach the Final Four once again. Flemings himself struggled late in the season against top opponents, settling for contested pull-ups rather than getting to the rim or finding 3-pointers.

But with years of development, the appeal is obvious when he’s a 6-4 ball-handler who can get to his spots, make advanced passes, and limit turnovers in a way that resembles a veteran guard. For a team like the Bulls that has a ton of guards on the roster but no clear-cut future starter, Flemings has the qualities that are worth investing in. And unlike in Houston, he’d have some far more talented supporting pieces by his side in Josh Giddey and Matas Buzelis.

10. Milwaukee Bucks

Mikel Brown, 6-5, Louisville freshman guard

When Brown is in the zone, he has an unstoppable pull-up jumper, an ambidextrous finishing ability, and the quick reads to rifle passes before the defense has time to react. He had a 45-point breakout performance in February, but a back injury dogged him throughout his freshman year. The Bucks don’t have much going in the developmental department, so taking a big swing on Brown would make sense at this point of the draft. If Brown had stayed healthy, he might be going much higher. And maybe he’ll play his way into that through pre-draft workouts. But for now, the absences muddy the evaluation and leave real questions about his consistency that may not get answered until he’s fully healthy.

11. Golden State Warriors

Hannes Steinbach, 6-11, Washington freshman big

Steinbach played professionally in Germany before enrolling at Washington, and he’ll enter the NBA with some ready-made skills as an interior scorer and rebounder. He has massive hands that he uses to grab every possible rebound and finish effectively around the basket. He also showed legitimate touch on 3-pointers in flashes, which would turn him into a very different player if it becomes real. The Warriors could use a guy like him for the current era and the post-Steph future. However, Steinbach probably needs a Draymond Green type next to him in the frontcourt since he’s a bit of a modern tweener himself. Steinbach is not a true 7-footer, and there are specific matchups where he gets targeted in space. He needs to be the right kind of center for the right team.

12. Portland Trail Blazers

Karim Lopez, 6-8, New Zealand Breakers forward

Lopez is a forward out of Mexico who spent two seasons in the NBL's Next Stars program, averaging nearly 12 points and six rebounds. He's a smart cutter who finds scoring lanes within the flow of the offense, a solid shooter, and a versatile defender. That two-way versatility would work well with the Trail Blazers, especially with Jerami Grant and Jrue Holiday soon to age out of the team's plans. At only 19, Lopez still needs to improve his shot, but he’s battle-tested against professionals and projects as a winning player.

13. Miami Heat

Cameron Carr, 6-5, Baylor redshirt sophomore wing

You could have watched every Tennessee game for two years and genuinely not known that Carr existed. Then he transferred to Baylor, and led the team in scoring, shot nearly 40% from 3 on high volume, and looked like a 3-and-D role player who also has tantalizing skills off the dribble. With NBA genes in his blood, as the son of former player Chris Carr, Cameron has the skills to make it in the NBA. But at 175 pounds with not a ton of games under his belt, he's going to get introduced to the NBA's physicality in a way that might limit his ability to get to his spots as a scorer. Thankfully the Heat have a strong strength and conditioning program to help a guy like Carr get in peak shape to handle the rigors of the league.

14. Memphis Grizzlies (via Orlando)

Labaron Philon, 6-4, Alabama sophomore guard

Philon is a shifty, score-first point guard who turned into one of the best guards in college basketball as a sophomore. He doubled his scoring output with buttery floaters, a deceptive handle, and a feel for running an offense, while also beginning to shore up the shooting questions that once clouded his projection. With Ja Morant likely on the way out, Philon would be a natural replacement, especially after the Grizzlies opted to go with Ament in the top 10. But he may require an adjustment period, just like he did at Alabama, since he’s still a below-the-rim athlete listed at 180 pounds.

15. Oklahoma City Thunder (via LA Clippers)

Braylon Mullins, 6-6, UConn freshman wing

Mullins hit one of the greatest buzzer-beaters in college basketball history to send Connecticut to the Final Four, but prior to that he was in the middle of a long cold streak, missing 47 of his previous 57 attempts from 3. Still, Mullins showed who he can be at his best in that moment: a confident shooter with limitless range, both off the catch and off one or two dribbles.

The Thunder have actually fallen to the middle of the pack in 3-point shooting, so adding a knockdown guy who can eventually play his way into the rotation would be useful. Mullins wouldn’t need to play right away either. He needs others to generate his looks, and he's listed at 196 pounds on a frame that will immediately get tested by NBA physicality. But if he can add strength and expand his creation even slightly, he starts to look like a lot more than a lethal shooter.

16. Charlotte Hornets

Yaxel Lendeborg, 6-9, Michigan senior forward

Michigan wouldn’t be in the Final Four if it weren’t for Lendeborg’s do-it-all ability. He fills the stat sheet, he can play multiple positions, and he has a 7-foot-4 wingspan at 240 pounds with a genuine handle. The issue is the 3-point shooting sits around 30% on his career and he'll be 24 as a rookie. But he goes through streaks where he’s draining a ton of 3s, like he has for all of March, that make him look like a future star. The Hornets wouldn’t necessarily need him to be a star with Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller, and LaMelo Ball blossoming into a Big Three. But having another high upside guy wouldn’t hurt. And at worst, he can safely fill the role of a high-end role player.

17. Charlotte Hornets (via Phoenix)

Thomas Haugh, 6-9, Florida junior forward

Florida won the national title one year ago and Haugh was the guy doing all the work by diving on the floor, taking charges, screening hard, cutting through traffic, and running the break. Then this season he did all of that on top of becoming the team's offensive engine. But Florida wasn’t as dominant and flamed out in the Sweet 16 for a reason. Haugh hasn’t proven he can drive left or shoot off the dribble at any meaningful clip, and even the spot-up jumper is still a work in progress. Haugh’s work ethic is elite though, which is exactly what the Hornets would be betting on, just like with Lendeborg, for him to slide into a forward/wing spot alongside their star shot creators.

18. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Philadelphia)

Aday Mara, 7-3, Michigan junior center

The Thunder drafted center Thomas Sorber one year ago, which suggests they’re looking for a succession plan for Isaiah Hartenstein. But it wouldn’t hurt to have another option in the developmental system after Sorber was sidelined all of his rookie season thanks to surgery on his torn right ACL. Mara has become one of the best true 5s in the country for Michigan. He reads the floor like a guard, finishes with both hands, and swats shots with elite timing. The complication is he doesn't shoot well from outside, he makes below 60% of his free throws, and opponents are going to attack him on the perimeter. But size matters and the Thunder have a way of helping players improve their shots.

19. Toronto Raptors

Bennett Stirtz, 6-4, Iowa senior guard

Stirtz feels the game at a different frequency than everyone else on the floor, and yet still makes scouts squint because he doesn't look the part athletically. At age 24 for a rookie, he’s also on the older end. The question isn't whether he can play though. After transferring from Drake to Iowa, he kept cooking with bullseye passes, pump-fakes, and shooting touch off the dribble from NBA range. The odds are that’ll carry over to the next level, especially if he lands on a team like the Raptors that can surround him with size, length, and versatility. And Toronto needs another engine to the offense; if Stirtz adjusts to the physicality and speed of the NBA, he could thrive as both a floor general or off-ball connector.

20. San Antonio Spurs (via Atlanta)

Alex Karaban, 6-8, UConn senior forward

Karaban sprinted off a curl, caught the ball while moving away from the basket, turned, and then fired a massive 3-pointer in the closing minute of UConn’s epic comeback over Duke in the Elite 8. The moment is emblematic of his shooting ability, which would be a positive addition to the Spurs. But Karaban belongs in the top-20 range despite his age (he’ll be 24 as a rookie) because he can also bury smaller defenders in the post and make the smart choice as a cutter and passer. Even on the final play against Duke, Karaban, in what could’ve been his final moment at UConn, decided to pass the ball to a wide-open Braylon Mullins for the win.

He’s a similarly high-effort, high IQ player on the defensive end, which helps him overcome his average athleticism. He lacks the upside to be a star, but the Spurs have enough of those players. What they need is a connector who enhances the stars around him, and Karaban is one of the best in this draft class at doing just that.

21. Detroit Pistons (via Minnesota)

Isaiah Evans, 6-6, Duke sophomore wing

Evans is a legitimate sharpshooter with the off-ball chops to thrive without even running any offense for himself, which is a perfect fit in Detroit, where Cade Cunningham needs live targets in the corners. The Pistons are 28th in 3-point attempts and 21st in 3-point percentage this season, so more shooters like Evans are needed who can spot up and run around screens. As a sophomore, Evans made great progress on-ball as well, so in the long-term he could have higher upside as a shot-creator. But to stay on the court as a young player, especially under head coach J.B. Bickerstaff, he’ll need to learn to get his hand up on defense.

22. Philadelphia 76ers (via Houston)

Motiejus Krivas, 7-2, Arizona junior center

Krivas is a 7-2 Lithuanian center who does the old-school things by rebounding, protecting the rim, and scoring in the post. But he also brings a modern flair with his ability to make good reads as a passer and the flashes he shows as a shooter. This would make him an ideal backup behind Joel Embiid. Krivas could anchor bench units when Embiid is healthy, and potentially play a bigger role when he’s not. The Sixers would be wise to target a big like this one because, no matter what happens with Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe are both young pieces who need a big man to support them. Krivas has all the tools needed.

23. Atlanta Hawks (via Cleveland)

Chris Cenac, 6-11, Houston freshman big

If Cenac gets feedback that he’ll be a late first-round pick, he very well might just go back to Houston for his sophomore year. There’s a reason why he might end up in this range though. He checks every box on paper as a superb athlete who moves like a wing, has the length to alter shots, and has a habit for shooting from the perimeter. But the Cougars fell short again, in part because Cenac struggled to stay out of foul trouble, couldn’t score efficiently, and was overeager to play on the perimeter despite having the body of a bruiser. If the Hawks draft him, he’s more of a developmental project. But there’s no harm in taking a swing when the roster has roles already occupied, especially after grabbing a point guard in the lottery.

24. Denver Nuggets

Dailyn Swain, 6-8, Texas junior wing

Peyton Watson will enter free agency this summer, so the Nuggets might need to fortify the forward spot. Swain makes perfect sense as a target. He played two competent seasons at Xavier, transferred to Texas, and somehow became the most efficient isolation scorer in the entire country. He's relentless getting to the rim, creative as a finisher, and active enough defensively to project as a switchable wing. But the reason he lives at the rim is because his jump shot is genuinely ugly. He has stiff mechanics, bad percentages, and a reluctance to even attempt it that goes all the way back to high school. Until his shooting becomes a credible threat, defenses are going to pack the paint and dare him to beat them from the outside. But the Nuggets can afford to be patient, deciding to bet on his soft touch, with the hopes that he someday becomes a reliable shooter. Just like Watson.

25. New York Knicks

Koa Peat, 6-8, Arizona freshman forward

Peat's bloodline is so loaded with offensive linemen that it's almost funny he ended up playing basketball. His father played nine NFL seasons. His uncle was a Pro Bowl tackle. Two brothers played college ball on the line. And you can absolutely see it in how he plays: powerful, physical, relentless, and it genuinely takes something special to stop him from getting to where he wants to go. He opened the season with a 30-point game against defending champion Florida and backed it up as one of Arizona's best players all year on its way to the Final Four. The Knicks need big bodies like him around Jalen Brunson. And since Peat can’t shoot yet, it’ll be important that he’s paired with a floor-spacing center like Karl-Anthony Towns. So even though he entered the year with top-10 hopes, it might be a blessing in disguise for him to fall to the end of the first round.

26. Los Angeles Lakers

Patrick Ngongba, 6-11, Duke sophomore center

The Lakers are finding out how good Deandre Ayton can look when he’s hustling. But there’s no guarantee it’ll be sustained, and they need a better long-term answer anyway. Ngongba does the dirty work without complaining about it: set screens, run the floor, make the right read, protect the rim, and do it all again the next play and the one after that. Ngongba did it as the backbone of one of the best teams in the country before a foot issue derailed the end of his season, which played a factor in Duke’s inability to reach the Final Four. He had two screws placed in his right foot during high school, then had lingering issues in his left foot as a freshman before his right foot became an issue again as a sophomore. Those injuries are why Ngongba could be available at the end of the first round.

27. Boston Celtics

Morez Johnson, 6-9, Michigan sophomore forward

Michigan is filled with so much star power that Johnson is the guy who often gets overlooked nationally. He’s a 250-pound wrecking ball with surprisingly soft hands and the defensive IQ to guard 1 through 5 in a switch-heavy scheme. And he makes constant plays beyond the box score with bone-crushing screens, full-court sprints, and high IQ rotations that blow up the opponent’s action. The Celtics have targeted team-first guys like Johnson in recent years, so he’d fit the profile here after proving himself as the connective tissue of the best team in the country. He isn’t quite big enough to be a true center and not yet proven enough as a shooter to guarantee he spaces the floor. But the Celtics can be patient and are proving to have a strong developmental program to help resolve any concerns.

28. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Detroit)

Christian Anderson, 6-3, Texas Tech sophomore guard

Anderson showed up at Texas Tech as the 101st-ranked recruit and has played his way into the first round behind dynamic pick-and-roll creation and knockdown perimeter shooting. Mike Conley isn’t getting any younger in Minnesota, Rob Dillingham is gone, and Bones Hyland is no guarantee to stay next season. That’s where Anderson could help right away with his ability to thrive with and without the ball. At his small stature, he hasn’t shown a consistent ability to get to the rim with any regularity, though, and he struggled to create his own shot when Texas Tech lost in the tournament. Any small guard will always be a target on defense, too, so there’s a lot of pressure on his shot translating to the next level. But at least he’d have long-armed wings and bigs around him as support in Minnesota.

29. Cleveland Cavaliers (via San Antonio)

Jayden Quaintance, 6-10, Kentucky sophomore big

Quaintance is going to get drafted based almost entirely on what he looked like before his knee exploded. As a freshman at Arizona State, he was blocking everything in sight, showing defensive instincts and mobility that players with his 6-10 frame aren't supposed to have, and he was 17 years old doing it. Then came the ACL, the meniscus, the fractured knee, the transfer to Kentucky, persistent swelling, and a shutdown for the remainder of his sophomore season. Now teams have to make a decision after 28 games of great defense and eyesore offense. He might not fall this far. But if he does, it’d make perfect sense for the Cavaliers to scoop him up since he could operate as a backup to Jarrett Allen and as a small-ball center next to Evan Mobley.

30. Dallas Mavericks (via Oklahoma City)

Tarris Reed, 6-11, UConn senior center

Reed was a projected second-round pick entering the tournament, and could very well still find himself in that range since he’s a senior who will be 23 as a rookie. But he brings throwback big skills as an interior bruiser, rebounder, and shot-blocker. And now those qualities are translating to pure dominance on the biggest stage against the toughest opponents, which could put him in the late-first round conversation. He had 31 points in the opening round, then 20 against Michigan State, and 26 on just 16 shots against Duke's frontline to help the Huskies punch their ticket to the Final Four. If he shines against a loaded Illinois frontcourt, he could keep solidifying his stock. And for a team like the Mavericks, that has to have appeal. Daniel Gafford hasn’t played over 60 games yet in Dallas, and Dereck Lively hasn’t proven he can stay healthy at all.