After coming to an agreement on a new, transformational collective bargaining agreement, the WNBA’s offseason is in full swing. It’ll be a bit of a sprint — I’m both excited and pre-exhausted for what the next three weeks are about to be — but we’re finally about to get some firm answers about what the league will look like.

First on the docket is the expansion draft for the Portland Fire and Toronto Tempo. Unlike last year, where the Golden State Valkyries got to handpick their team, we have two teams selecting from a pool of players. Further complicating matters is the fact that most of the league is set to be free agents; many players signed one-year deals in anticipation of the new CBA — and the expected (and now official) jump in salaries.

In short, things will look a little different this time around. Some base rules for the draft, taking place this Friday at 3:30 ET:

• There will be two rounds, with the Fire (selecting first) and Tempo making up to six selections per round.

• Each of the 13 non-expansion teams were able to protect five players (down from six last year) from their roster to be withheld from the draft pool; the remaining players are eligible to be selected by the Fire or Tempo.

• Once a player is selected from a team’s unprotected list in the first round, no other player from that team can be selected until the next round. For example, if the Fire select Haley Jones (Dallas Wings), no other Wings player can be selected until the second round. The Fire or Tempo can select up to two players from the same roster; they just can’t be selected in the same round.

• Any unprotected player who has five or more years of service and does not have a contract for the 2026 season is considered a “Potential Unrestricted Free Agent.” Portland and Toronto can only select one player each that fits that description. If the player they select is eligible to be designated as a Core Player, they can make that designation. If the player is no longer eligible for a Core designation, the expansion team that selects that player will be the only team that can negotiate a supermax contract with that player. The latter portion could really matter for players like Breanna Stewart (New York Liberty), Bri Jones (Atlanta Dream), and Kahleah Copper (Phoenix Mercury); if their teams feel like they’re a virtual lock to re-sign this offseason — Stewart has already announced she’s coming back to New York — they may choose (or gamble) to leave those players unprotected and use their protected slot on someone they feel is more at risk of being chosen.

For this piece, we’re going to look at each roster and the contract status for its players. We’ll then do our best to predict who will be protected, and who some of the top targets will be in light of that. As a quick contract status guide:

• Under contract: These are the players on rookie scale contracts or, in the case of Kalani Brown (Mercury) and Lexie Brown (Storm), veterans who are already signed through this year.

• Unrestricted free agent (UFA): These players are eligible to sign anywhere they want ... unless they get the Core designation.

• Restricted free agent (RFA): These players can sign offer sheets elsewhere, but their current team has the right to match an offer sheet.

• Reserved free agent: Unlike restricted free agents, their current teams have exclusive negotiating rights unless renounced.

• Draft rights: These are players that were (recently) drafted, but have not signed/appeared in the WNBA yet.

• Suspended contract rights: There’s a lengthier explanation, but for the purposes of this exercise, think of them in a similar bucket to reserved free agents.

In light of the Chicago Sky’s recent trades with the Tempo and Fire — both teams have agreed not to select a player from the Sky’s unprotected list for second-round compensation — they’ll be excluded in this exercise.

All roster and contract status data comes courtesy of HerHoopStats.com.

Atlanta Dream • Connecticut Sun • Dallas Wings • Golden State Valkyries • Indiana Fever • Las Vegas Aces • Los Angeles Sparks • Minnesota Lynx • New York Liberty • Phoenix Mercury • Seattle Storm • Washington Mystics

Atlanta Dream

• Under contract: Te-Hina Paopao, Taylor Thierry

• UFA: Allisha Gray, Bri Jones, Brittney Griner, Jordin Canada, Nia Coffey, Shatori Walker-Kimbrough

• RFA: Rhyne Howard, Naz Hillmon

• Reserved: Maya Caldwell, Lorela Cubaj, Sika Kone

• Suspended: Maite Cazorla, Holly Winterburn

• Draft rights: Isobel Borlase, Nyadiew Puoch, Matilde Villa

Likely protections: Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard, Bri Jones, Naz Hillmon, Te-Hina Paopao

This feels relatively straightforward. Gray, Howard, Jones and Hillmon were the Dream’s four best players last year. Paopao made a strong case for an All-Rookie selection last season, and her contract grants team control through 2028.

As mentioned in the prelude, there’s an argument to leave Jones unprotected since she isn’t core eligible. The 2025 season was the first time in her career she’s firmly been her team’s best and most prioritized frontcourt player, and she clearly seems happy in Atlanta.

On the flip side, she would be the unquestioned star — not just top frontcourt option — for the Tempo or Fire if selected, and it may be hard to turn down a supermax ($1.4M). It’s why I ultimately landed on Jones being protected.

Key targets: Nyadiew Puoch, Isobel Borlase, Maya Caldwell

Being able to get cost-controlled, high potential talent should be a priority for the Tempo or Fire. Puoch and Borlase would certainly fit the bill there. If the aim is more immediate impact, getting exclusive negotiating rights to Caldwell — one of the few genuine 3-and-D wings in the WNBA — would be a great bit of business.

Connecticut Sun

• Under contract: Leila Lacan, Saniya Rivers, Aaliyah Edwards, Aneesah Morrow, Rayah Marshall

• UFA: Marina Mabrey, Tina Charles, Lindsay Allen, Bria Hartley 

• RFA: Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Haley Peters

• Reserved: Nikolina Milic, Mamignan Toure

Likely protections: Marina Mabrey, Leila Lacan, Saniya Rivers, Aaliyah Edwards, Aneesah Morrow

This also feels relatively straightforward. The quartet of Lacan, Rivers, Morrow and recently acquired Edwards are all on their rookie contracts and boast (moderately) high potential. Mabrey is the team’s best veteran and most dangerous shooter, though growing pains within heightened on-ball responsibility led to efficiency dips last season.

There’s room to make a “We dare you to core her” gamble with Mabrey to protect another one of the young bigs, but 1) I’m not sure if they need to protect three bigs and 2) I’d anticipate the Sun wanting to take a real step in wins this season with their unfortunate departure from Connecticut on the horizon. Mabrey likely helps more with that.

Key targets: Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Rayah Marshall

With that being the case, I’d be all over ONO as a target. She’s coming off of a career year, and I think there’s more there. She’s a quality screener, passing hub, and versatile defender. Any more growth as a self-creator and you’re looking at a pretty firm starting-quality big. 

Marshall didn’t get much burn with the Sun last year because of the frontcourt depth, but I’d be intrigued to see how much of her defensive activity (and wild stock production) carries over from her USC days.

Dallas Wings

• Under contract: Paige Bueckers, Maddy Siegrist, Aziaha James, JJ Quinerly, Diamond Miller

• UFA: Arike Ogunbowale, Ty Harris, Myisha Hines-Allen

• Reserved: Luisa Geiselsöder, Haley Jones, Li Yueru, Grace Berger

• Suspended: Awak Kuier, Lou Lopez Senechal

Likely protections: Paige Bueckers, Arike Ogunbowale, Maddy Siegrist, Luisa Geiselsoder, Awak Kuier

I think the only guarantees here are Bueckers and Ogunbowale. Bueckers is already the face of the franchise, and Ogunbowale is an All-Star talent that, at bare minimum, the Wings would want to have some level of control over if they decide to pivot in another direction. I personally think they should give their partnership another year, but you at least want to be in position to work through sign-and-trade possibilities versus losing Ogunbowale for nothing.

Sam Hodde via Getty Images

From there, you can go in multiple directions. I have them going frontcourt-heavy with Siegrist (bonafide bucket), Geiselsoder (huge fan of how many areas she can impact) and Kuier (former 2021 No. 2 pick who has shown real growth overseas and is only 24), but you could easily swap one or more out for the rookie guards (James, Quinerly) or the recently acquired Miller.

Key targets: Aziaha James, JJ Quinerly, Diamond Miller, Haley Jones, Li Yueru

I didn’t realize it until I started typing here, but there’s literally a starting lineup of young prospects the Fire or Tempo could choose from. At bare minimum, all five are either under contract or have exclusive negotiating rights. Jones (versatility) and Quinerly (speed demon with shooting chops) would be my favorites from the group, but there’s plenty to like from the Dallas options. 

Golden State Valkyries

• Under contract: Carla Leite, Kate Martin

• UFA: Tiffany Hayes, Temi Fagbenle, Kayla Thornton, Monique Billings 

• RFA: Veronica Burton, Cecilia Zandalasini

• Reserved: Janelle Salaun, Iliana Rupert, Laeticia Amihere, Kaitlyn Chen

• Suspended: Maria Conde

• Draft rights: Justė Jocytė

Likely protections: Veronica Burton, Janelle Salaun, Iliana Rupert, Justė Jocyte, Carla Leite

All five players are cost/team-controlled assets in some way, with Burton (what a year) headlining the list. I had a tough time with Leite vs. Zandalasini for the last spot; Zandalasini’s unique combination of size and on-ball skill was pretty darn important for the Valkyries last year, but Leite’s drives and overall activity also popped in her minutes. Ultimately, youth won out — Leite turns 22 in a couple of weeks and has more years of team control, while Zandalasini (30) is up for a well-deserved raise this offseason.

Key targets: Cecilia Zandalasini, Kate Martin, Laeticia Amihere

Assuming she’s available, I would be shocked if Zandalasini wasn’t one of the early picks in this year’s expansion draft. She averaged 12.7 points on 67.3 true shooting across her 10 starts while operating as a reliable secondary creator within their offense. 

Beyond that, Martin got to self-create more while doing her usual gap-filling and defending. The Amihere drives have always intrigued me; if she’s able to find a defensive coverage she’s comfortable with, there’s a real player in here.

Indiana Fever

• Under contract: Aliyah Boston, Caitlin Clark, Makayla Timpson

• UFA: Kelsey Mitchell, Natasha Howard, Sophie Cunningham, Aari McDonald, Damiris Dantas, Sydney Colson, Bri Turner

• RFA: Lexie Hull

• Reserved: Chloe Bibby

• Suspended: Kristy Wallace

Likely protections: Aliyah Boston, Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell, Lexie Hull, Makayla Timpson

The Boston/Clark/Mitchell trio is one of the best in the league. With Boston and Clark on rookie contracts and Mitchell slated to test free agency if she isn’t cored, these are easy choices. Hull, an elite cutter and rugged defender coming off of another solid shooting season (36.7% on career high 3.4 attempts) is also an easy choice, especially when you consider she’s a restricted free agent.

I think Timpson gets the final nod. Her energy popped in limited minutes last season, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see her role grow with either a departure or minute reduction from veteran Natasha Howard. Her being on a rookie contract gives her an edge over currently better players like Howard, Aari McDonald, or Sophie Cunningham.

Key targets: Chloe Bibby, Kristy Wallace

McDonald and Cunningham are better players when healthy, but I think the cost/team-controlled context for Bibby and Wallace would make them more valuable targets. Bibby would be top billing for me; players her size generally don’t shoot as well or as willingly behind the arc as she does. She could accentuate the talents of whichever guards the Tempo or Fire select.

Las Vegas Aces

• Under contract: Aaliyah Nye

• UFA: A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, Jewell Loyd, Dana Evans, Kiah Stokes, Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, Megan Gustafson

• RFA: NaLyssa Smith, Kierstan Bell

Likely protections: A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, Aaliyah Nye, NaLyssa Smith

First, an important PSA.

Beyond that, these choices were easy. The Big Three were going to be protected, leaving us two spots for three cost or team-controlled assets (Nye, Smith, Bell). Nye’s on a rookie deal and could grow into one of the league’s best shooters, so she should be safe. After losing Kate Martin in the expansion draft last year, I’m willing to guarantee something like that doesn’t happen again.

It comes down to Smith and Bell, both playing key (starting) roles for the Aces as they completed an unprecedented midseason turnaround and ultimately won a championship. Smith’s size, rebounding, and supplementary scoring gives her the edge to me.

Key targets: Kierstan Bell

If it plays out that way, Bell (and her RFA rights) seems to be the easy choice. She’s had to mold herself into a space-cut-defend role player, but she’s more comfortable self-creating. On an expansion team, she may have more room to spread her wings. 

There are better players available, like former All-Star Jewell Loyd, but with her not being core-eligible, the Fire or Tempo would have to ask themselves if they’re willing to offer max or, as it’s allowed, supermax money to Loyd. Ditto for Dana Evans, who would likely be a relatively high pick in the expansion draft (or outright protected by the Aces) if she wasn’t an unrestricted free agent.

Los Angeles Sparks

• Under contract: Rickea Jackson, Cam Brink, Sarah Ashlee Barker, Sania Feagan

• UFA: Kelsey Plum, Dearica Hamby, Azura Stevens, Emma Cannon

• RFA: Julie Allemand

• Reserved: Rae Burrell, Julie Vanloo, Alissa Pili

Likely protections: Kelsey Plum, Dearica Hamby, Rickea Jackson, Cam Brink, Rae Burrell

Four of these choices are easy: Plum and Hamby are the best players on the team, while Jackson and Brink are pretty easily the best and most valuable young players on the roster. 

Katelyn Mulcahy via Getty Images

From there, the Sparks have a decision to make. Do you protect the better player in Stevens, coming off a career year, or do you protect Burrell who seems primed to break out in a similar way?

I landed on Burrell. There’s real two-way wing potential as her decision-making improves. Her contract status makes her easier to retain than Stevens. There’s also the matter of Brink’s next steps; she made her return last season, but the Sparks may be ready to turn the center position over to her entirely.

Key targets: Azura Stevens, Julie Vanloo, Sania Feagan

Not only should Stevens be an easy selection for the Fire or Tempo if available, she should probably be one of the first two players taken. The list of bigs that can shoot, drive and pass the way she can is incredibly short.

Beyond that, we’ve already seen Vanloo serve as a bridge point guard for an expansion team. Feagan is an intriguing long-term prospect at the 5 that I wouldn’t mind taking the chance on.

Minnesota Lynx

• Under contract: Dorka Juhász, Anastasiia Olairi Kosu

• UFA: Napheesa Collier, Kayla McBride, Alanna Smith, Courtney Williams, Bridget Carleton, Jessica Shepard, DiJonai Carrington, Natisha Hiedeman

• Reserved: Maria Kliundikova, Jaylyn Sherrod, Camryn Taylor

• Draft rights: Aubrey Griffin, Maia Hirsch

Likely protections: Napheesa Collier, Kayla McBride, Alanna Smith, Courtney Williams, Dorka Juhász

Keeping the Core Four and protecting Juhász, a skilled, cost-controlled big that may be slated for big minutes depending on how free agency goes, feel like relatively simple choices to make. 

I had some internal debate about Carleton vs. Williams — Williams is the better player, but she is older and perhaps easier to move on from in light of the Lynx holding the No. 2 pick of this year’s draft (Olivia Miles, anyone?) and maybe looking for a different veteran flavor at that spot (I’d watch Skylar Diggins). Ultimately, a Carleton-Tempo connection may be inevitable. 

Key targets: Bridget Carleton, Maria Kliundikova

Carleton would be core-eligible if selected, but you’d have to hope that dollar figure could be negotiated down in a longer-term deal. Either way, her ability to shoot, cut and defend at a high level makes her a fit just about anywhere.

Kliundikova became a reliable third-big option for the Lynx as the season went on. Her combination of size and skill popped; the fact that the Fire or Tempo would get exclusive negotiating rights for her could make her a more tantalizing option.

New York Liberty

• Under contract: Leonie Fiebich, Nyara Sabally

• UFA: Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones, Natasha Cloud, Emma Meesseman, Kennedy Burke, Izzy Harrison, Stephanie Talbot

• Reserved: Marine Johannes, Ivana Dojkic, Rebekah Gardner

• Suspended: Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, Raquel Carrera, Han Xu, Seehia Ridard, Annika Soltau

• Draft rights: Marine Fauthoux, Adja Kane

Likely protections: Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones, Leonie Fiebich, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, Nyara Sabally

It’s time for shenanigans! 

As mentioned earlier, Stewart being core-ineligible leaves the door open for New York to make a bet: pick her if you want, but she’s more likely to re-sign with us than sign a supermax with you. Considering she’s already announced that she’s coming back, I think it’s fair to assume New York will leave her unprotected so they could use that slot elsewhere.

Ionescu and Jones (also core-ineligible, but I wouldn’t play around with that) are easy choices, as is Leonie Fiebich. She’s cost-controlled, but more importantly, she’s already one of the best 3-and-D wings in the league (with some hidden creation chops that I’d like for her to explore more often). Getting a healthy Laney-Hamilton back should boost the Liberty on both ends, and, for what it’s worth, she is beloved there on and off the floor.

The last spot came down to veteran Natasha Cloud, who may love being in New York more than anyone else loves any singular thing, or the younger, cost-controlled Sabally. I went with the latter, though it’s worth noting the risk here. Cloud is eligible for the core designation; if someone like Vanloo provides value as a bridge point guard, Cloud — still an all-world defender with strong driving and playmaking chops — would fit the bill even more. Though as we saw with her trade to the Sun, bringing Cloud to a situation she doesn’t want to be in may not be worth the time.

With that said…

Key targets: Natasha Cloud, Raquel Carrera, Marine Johannes

I still select Cloud if she’s actually available. At best, you get a strong leader on and off the court that can help stabilize you on both ends of the court in the short term. In the “worst” case scenario, you use the core designation and then work out a trade. There’s a hint of shadiness there, but this is a business at the end of the day.

Beyond that, Carrera and Johannes are probably my favorite cost/team-controlled options from the list.

Phoenix Mercury

• Under contract: Kalani Brown

• UFA: Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, Kahleah Copper, DeWanna Bonner, Sami Whitcomb

• Reserved: Monique Akoa-Makani, Natasha Mack, Kathryn Westbeld, Lexi Held, Kitija Laksa

• Suspended: Klara Holm, Helena Pueyo, Julia Ayrault

Likely protections: Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, Kahleah Copper, Monique Akoa-Makani, Natasha Mack

Protect your stars, protect Akoa-Makani (I am still annoyed she didn’t make the All-Rookie team), and protect one of the most underrated defenders in the league in Mack. There’s room to engage in light shenanigans; Copper is core-ineligible, so you could leave her unprotected if there’s faith (and by all counts, there should be) that she’s going to return to Phoenix no matter what. In that event, you could also protect one of the other reserved free agents.

Key targets: Kathryn Westbeld, Lexi Held, Kitija Laksa

If the Mercury do protect Copper, the Fire or Tempo should be happy selecting from this group. 

Westbeld is quietly scheme-versatile as a defender, a willing screener and ball-mover, and isn’t afraid to pull from deep. Held fit nicely into Phoenix’s full-court pressure system, and also flashed real juice as a driver and open-shot maker. Laksa is an unabashed gunner from deep with nice positional size — you’d just need a strong defensive infrastructure around her.

Seattle Storm

• Under contract: Dominique Malonga, Jordan Horston, Nika Muhl, Lexie Brown

• UFA: Nneka Ogwumike, Skylar Diggins, Gabby Williams, Brittney Sykes, Ezi Magbegor, Erica Wheeler, Tiffany Mitchell, Katie Lou Samuelson

• Reserved: Zia Cooke, Mackenzie Holmes

Likely protections: Dominique Malonga, Jordan Horston, Skylar Diggins, Gabby Williams, Ezi Magbegor

Malonga and Horston should be safe because of their upside and years of team control. In terms of veterans, Diggins and Williams are 1) incredibly good at basketball and 2) aren’t worth the risk of upsetting if you don’t protect them. That leaves one spot open.

I think Ogwumike, like Stewart, falls under the “shenanigans” tab: she can’t be cored, and she’s likely to be back, so there’s no need to use a protection slot on her. This really boils down to Magbegor or Sykes, two players that, as of this writing, I’d predict will be playing elsewhere next season.

I landed on Magbegor. She’s the youngest of the two, and I think she’d garner more assets in a core-then-trade scenario than Sykes would.

Key targets: Brittney Sykes, Zia Cooke

If that’s the case, Sykes becomes the best or second-best player available in this year’s expansion draft. She’s a tremendous defender, an unrelenting driver, underrated playmaker and daredevil shot-taker. 

Among the other candidates, I found myself impressed with Cooke’s buy-in defensively. It wasn’t always perfect, but her ball pressure and screen navigation was better than what we’ve been accustomed to. The bucket-getting potential will always be there; she feels like someone that could go later in the expansion draft and surprise some folks during the regular season if given the opportunity.

Washington Mystics

• Under contract: Sonia Citron, Kiki Iriafen, Jacy Sheldon, Georgia Amoore, Lucy Olsen

• UFA: Alysha Clark, Stefanie Dolson, Jade Melbourne

• RFA: Shakira Austin, Sug Sutton

• Reserved: Emily Engstler, Madison Scott, Bernadett Hatar 

• Draft rights: Nastja Claessens, Txell Alarcon

Likely protections: Sonia Citron, Kiki Iriafen, Shakira Austin, Jacy Sheldon, Georgia Amoore

Protecting the Citron/Iriafen/Austin trio should be a no-brainer, even if you ultimately work out a sign-and-trade with Austin later in the offseason. From there, it’s two spots between six team/cost-controlled players.

I landed on the recently-acquired Sheldon (the Aaliyah Edwards-to-Connecticut trade) and last year’s No. 6 overall pick in Amoore. Amoore is worth real discussion here, though. She missed all of last season with a torn ACL; with the Mystics holding three first-round picks in this year’s draft (4, 9, 11), they could be in range for a top-tier point-guard prospect. 

Though I don’t think it’s the likeliest outcome, there is a world where Awa Fam, Lauren Betts, and Azzi Fudd, in some order, are the first three picks. Are you passing up on Olivia Miles if you’re the Mystics? I sure wouldn’t. And if Miles is gone, you’re in range to take Kiki Rice or Raven Johnson if you view them highly enough. 

Key targets: Emily Engstler, Sug Sutton

If Amoore is protected, I think Engstler and Sutton would be my top choices. Engstler is such a unique talent; so much so that teams haven’t really understood how (and how much) to use her. An expansion roster feels like an ideal context for her to be unleashed. Sutton is a more known quality; she’s getting downhill, getting to the midrange, and making your life miserable on the defensive end. Only 27 years old, there may be more to tap into there.