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Today — 5 April 2026Main stream

Final Four 2026: Michigan opens as big favorite over UConn in men's college basketball title game

The Michigan Wolverines were dominant in an impressive 91-73 victory over the Arizona Wildcats on Saturday night in the Final Four in Indianapolis.

Michigan closed as a 1.5-point underdog at BetMGM (pick-em or -1 at some other books) — the first time the Wolverines had been an underdog since they were 2.5-point ‘dogs on Nov. 26 against Gonzaga. Michigan won that game 101-61.

The Wolverines will take on Dan Hurley’s UConn Huskies on Monday night, and Michigan opened as a 7.5-point favorite at BetMGM with a total of 145.5.

UConn (+1.5) led for most of the game against No. 3 Illinois in the first Final Four game on Saturday and ended up winning 71-62 — the 18th win (and cover) in the Huskies’ last 19 NCAA tournament games.

The Huskies have won all six national championship games they’ve appeared in (1999, 2004, 2011, 2014, 2023, 2024) and covered the spread in every game. This will be the third time UConn has been an underdog in the title game.

Sportsbooks would prefer a Michigan victory on Monday night in the futures pool, as many books shortened the Wolverines’ odds significantly after their showing in Las Vegas in November so significant liability didn’t build up.

There is certainly one bettor hoping for a Huskies victory, as a bettor at DraftKings would win $1 million if Hurley & Co. win their third championship in four seasons. That bettor wagered $77,000 on UConn at 13-1 odds to win the national championship, a wager that would win $1,001,000.

The national championship game is at 8:50 p.m. on Monday on HBO and TBS.

2026 Final Four: 1 bettor would win $1 million if UConn wins national championship

The UConn Huskies entered the 2026 NCAA tournament as the No. 2 seed in the East region, coming off a 20-point blowout loss in the Big East tournament final against St. John’s.

But discount Dan Hurley’s tournament pedigree at your own peril, as pretty much all the Huskies have done is win — and cover — over the past few seasons. After two easy wins over No. 15 Furman and No. 7 UCLA, the Huskies beat No. 3 Michigan State 67-63 and got by No. 1 Duke 73-72 thanks to a miraculous last-second 3-pointer from Braylon Mullins.

Despite closing as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday night in the Final Four against Illinois, UConn led most of the game before holding on down the stretch to beat Illinois 71-62.

For one bettor at DraftKings, that means another UConn victory would result in a $1 million payout.

The bettor wagered $77,000 on the Huskies to cut down the nets at 13-1 odds, which would win $1,001,000. It’s the biggest liability remaining among reported futures wagers at legal U.S. sportsbooks.

UConn will be an underdog against either No. 1 Arizona or No. 1 Michigan in the national championship game, but bet against the Huskies at your own peril. UConn is now 18-1 straight up and against the spread in its last 19 tournament games under Hurley.

One bettor will certainly be rooting for one more Huskies win.

Before yesterdayMain stream

How the public is betting the Final Four: 'We'll probably need UConn'

We witnessed the true definition of March Madness last Sunday when No. 2 UConn shocked No. 1 overall seed Duke and denied the Blue Devils a trip to the Final Four thanks to a last-second 3-pointer to pull off a 73-72 win.

The shot by the Huskies’ Braylon Mullins will not only go down as one of the most iconic shots in tournament history, but it also helped one bettor win $615,000 — as he had a $300,000 money line wager on UConn pregame.

The Huskies are short underdogs against No. 3 Illinois in the first game of Saturday’s Final Four, while No. 1 Michigan is a short favorite against No. 1 Arizona in the later game.

How is the betting public wagering on the game?

Yahoo Sports asked a few oddsmakers about the Final Four betting action on UConn-Illinois and Michigan-Arizona so far.

All odds courtesy of BetMGM.

No. 2 UConn vs. No. 3 Illinois (-1.5, 139.5)

Thomas Gable, Borgata sportsbook director: “We opened Illinois as 2-point favorites and soon moved to -1.5, which is where we still are. This could get back to 2, maybe even -2.5. The total hasn’t moved from 139.5. When you have both games lined this closely, betting action is going to be relatively split. I do expect this to be a decision for us and we’ll probably need UConn.

Best bets for the Final Four games from Yahoo experts

“For right now, there is early UConn money taking the +2, and it’s relatively split on the money line. Some books made the game Illinois -1, so I wasn’t willing to open -2.5 like most of the market did. The winner of this game will be an underdog in the national championship. We’re in good shape to both teams in the futures book.”

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 1 Michigan (-1.5, 157.5)

Gable: “A lot of people are looking at this as the national championship game with probably the top two teams in college basketball teams facing off. I made the game Michigan -1.5, which is where it has remained. Michigan money line has been a very popular wager, but nothing I’d classify as sharp. Not a big decision here at the moment. Total bet up from 156.5 to 157.5. Not sure it gets up to Michigan -2, I think stays around -1.5.

“From a futures perspective, Michigan is our best result of the four teams remaining. Their national title odds were shortened during that tournament in Vegas back in November, so they’re a great result for us. Arizona we’re a small loser to.”

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