An electric regular season is nearing its end, which means two things:

1. We’re about to flow into an even crazier postseason.

2. It’s time to put the finishing touches on award races.

Chief among them is the MVP award, the NBA’s most prestigious regular-season honor. There have been plenty of great individual campaigns this season, but the MVP race has largely dropped to a four-player group: reigning winner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, multi-time winner Nikola Jokić and a pair of megastars in Victor Wembanyama and Luka Dončić hunting for their first. 

This week, we’re breaking down the cases for all of them — or at least until Dončić suffered a hamstring injury that may make him ineligible for any awards. This series is less about who I think should win — I’ll reveal that on Friday’s episode of The Dunker Spot — and more about helping others either bolster their arguments for their favorite candidate, or understand the legitimacy of the other cases.

Let’s start by looking at Jokić, shall we?

All stats are updated through games played on April 6.

Tale of the tape

Nuggets record: 41-22 (65.1% win rate, 53-win pace); 10-6 without him (51-win pace)

Notable per-game rankings (min. 50 games): 7th in scoring, 1st in rebounds, 1st in assists, 1st among bigs in steals

Notable Advanced Stats: 1st in offensive estimated plus-minus (O-EPM), 2nd in LEBRON, 2nd in Win Shares per 48, 3rd in estimated plus-minus (EPM)

The basic case: Who’s doing more, this efficiently?

I was half-joking about this with my esteemed Dunker Spot co-host Steve Jones Jr. last week, but it seems like people have gotten a little bored with Jokić. 

From my view, the MVP discourse started with SGA and Jokić, then shifted fully to SGA as the Thunder looked like they would win 75 games. After a cooling period in OKC, we’ve heard cases for Cade Cunningham (get well soon) and Jaylen Brown. Wemby and Dončić (get well soon!) forced themselves into the national consciousness with their dominance, particularly since the All-Star break.

In the midst of this, Jokić is averaging 28 points while leading the NBA in rebounds (12.9) and assists (10.9); if that holds, he’ll become the first player in NBA history to simultaneously lead the league in rebounds and assists.

That’s not how this is supposed to work.

Jokić has once again diced up defenses in whatever way he’s needed to, with a volume bordering on cruelty. It’s not just 28 points a night, it’s 28 points a night while converting nearly 64% of his 2s and 38% of his 3s on solid volume (4.6 attempts per game). Among players averaging at least 20 points per game, his 66.9% true shooting leads the way.

To the interior dominance, it’s been a mix of post goodness — Per Second Spectrum, this is the fifth straight season the Nuggets have generated over 1.1 points per possession on Jokić post touches, and his 1.24 PPP mark while logging 101 more post touches than anyone (463, Alperen Sengun is second at 362) feels like a typo — and touch-shot mastery. 

Jokić’s Sombor Shuffle over Wemby in the closing moments of their overtime thriller on Saturday felt like one of the defining shots of the season. Quieter, but more deadly, has been his short-roll floater. 

Jokić has converted 58.2% of his floaters, fourth among 26 players to attempt at least 100 this season. His expected efficiency on those looks, accounting for factors like shot distance and contest level, is 40.5%. Only Jaren Jackson Jr. (+23.7) and Dončić (+19.2) have overperformed their expected efficiency more than Jokić (+17.7) has.

Let’s zoom out a bit and talk about shots inside the arc altogether. There have been 63 players to attempt at least 500 2s; Jokić’s 63.5% clip ranks sixth on that list despite an expected efficiency below 50% (49.4) on his looks. Not only is he overperforming at a higher rate than anyone (+14.1), he’s one of only five players to do so by 10 percentage points or higher. Kevin Durant, SGA, Zion Williamson and Dončić are the others.

It can be post-ups. It can be drives; among 201 players to log at least 200 drives, only Giannis Antetokounmpo (1.26 PPP) is generating more efficient offense than Jokić (1.23 PPP). The

The Nuggets will run him off screens — from simple cross-screens to get him post touches, to legitimate pin-downs to let him attack on the move — and he’ll get busy there, too. His 1.21 PPP when receiving off-ball screens ranks first among 103 players to receive at least 300.

Speaking of screens, he’s both elite as a screener (1.07 PPP) and ball-handler (1.12 PPP) in pick-and-roll situations. 

Being a near-automatic scorer makes him scheme-proof. Any two-on-the-ball coverage allows him to attack against tilted defenses. Softer coverage unlocks pops (38% from 3, remember?) or shallow rolls into the mid-range where he’s been excellent. Switching is effectively a no-go; smaller players get mashed into oblivion, so you have to send help.

And when you send help against Jokić, he can destroy you with any pass in the book. To that point: 39 players have seen a second defender on 500 or more touches this season, and only Giannis (1.21 PPP) has generated more efficient offense than Jokić (1.2). 

He’s filling the box score to an absurd degree — he’s averaging a triple-double for the second year in a row and has more total triple-doubles (33) than the second- and third-place players combined (Jalen Johnson and Josh Giddey each have 13, so 26 in total) — and doing so on efficiency that doesn’t make sense. It can feel routine to say a player is an offense unto himself, but Jokić truly is.

The Nuggets, despite all the injuries they’ve had, are on pace for the third-best offensive rating in NBA history (122.2, per Cleaning The Glass). With Jokić on the floor, that number jumps to a typo-worthy 128.1 — and this is with the team taking a relatively low share of 3s (38.3%) in his minutes.

Because of Jokić’s individual scoring dominance and his virtuosic playmaking, there really isn’t a consistent answer for him — or anyone who has the pleasure of playing off his gravity. The Nuggets’ rim rate rises by 6.1% with Jokić on the floor; their corner-3 rate rises by 2.6%. Among players to log at least 1,500 minutes, he’s the only player to rank in the 90th percentile or better in both numbers.

And while it could go without saying — heck, I went this long without mentioning it — this has been yet another year the Nuggets have largely fallen off a cliff without him on the floor. Among that same 1,500-minute group, no player has a larger on-off differential (+14.9) than Jokić; SGA (+10.6, 5th) is the only other MVP candidate in that group logging a differential over 10.

That’s excellence. That’s impact. That’s Jokić.

Let’s talk about the defense

As is always the case with Jokić, there’s going to be a level of volatility when it comes to how he’s discussed defensively. 

On one hand, he almost always provides value as an event creator — nine straight seasons averaging at least a steal, and it’s been yet another season when the Nuggets have forced a larger share of turnovers in his minutes — and a possession ender. 

Nobody averages more defensive rebounds (10) than Jokić; naturally, the Nuggets as a whole end possessions at a higher rate when he’s on the floor (75.6 defensive rebound rate would rank first leaguewide) versus when he’s off (70.8 would rank 18th). Between the steals and the rebounding, Jokić is able to jumpstart fruitful transition possessions at a high clip.

One of the things I’ve appreciated about the Nuggets this year, and something I anticipated when making David Adelman my preseason Coach of the Year pick (gonna be wrong there), is that they’ve attempted to move Jokić around the board. Those gambits haven’t paid off all the time, but it’s worth noting how much and how often his responsibilities have shifted this year.

While I’m still of the belief that Jokić is at his best when operating at the level of screens (or higher), there’s been a dramatic shift in volume with that coverage. Second Spectrum tracks “blitz” rate — which, when looking at film, it’s more accurate to describe it as “Two on the Ball” rate since it includes clips of players at the level, not just outright trapping — and this is the first time since 2017-18 (Jokić’s first full season as the no-doubt-about-it starter) that his blitz rate has been under 10%.

• 2017-18: 8%

• 2018-19: 16.3%

• 2019-20: 15.4%

• 2020-21: 11.3%

• 2021-22: 10.6%

• 2022-23: 13.3%

• 2023-24: 11.9%

• 2024-25: 17.3%

• 2025-26: 8.2%

Not only has there been more drop coverage reps from Jokić (second-highest rate of his career as a starter), this is easily the highest rate of zone (nearly 7% of his possessions) he’s played in his career. That, plus an uptick in cross-matching — a substantial share of his possessions during the Nuggets’ marquee matchup with the Spurs over the weekend were spent “guarding” Keldon Johnson and Julian Champagnie, for example — has generally kept him closer to the basket.

On the other hand, being closer to the basket hasn’t guaranteed more success at the rim. Among 82 players to defend at least 200 shots at the rim, Jokić ranks 57th in opponent field-goal percentage (66.2%) — sandwiched between rookie Maxime Raynaud (66.7%) and former teammate Jusuf Nurkic (65.7%).

In terms of Jokić’s impact on rim deterrence — which is partly Jokić, partly scheme (and what it opens up vs takes away) — he’s fared worse. Opponent rim rate — the percentage of shots opponents take at the rim — has slightly dropped with Jokić on the floor (-0.4%, 59th percentile), but that’s the lowest mark of his career. Taking a glance at his previous five seasons will paint a pretty clear picture:

• 2020-21: -2.0% (81st percentile)

• 2021-22: -3.9% (95th percentile)

• 2022-23: -2.2% (85th percentile)

• 2023-24: -6.7% (99th percentile)

• 2024-25: -3.8% (92nd percentile)

There have always been possessions of Jokić weakly waving or outright conceding a basket at the rim to pivot into a quick inbound or prevent foul trouble in his film, but there have been more of those possessions than I’m comfortable with this year, midseason recovery and overall injury context notwithstanding.

Circling back to the at-the-level point, it’s also worth pointing out that this has been, at least statistically, his third-worstseason operating in that coverage (0.993 PPP). Now, the obvious rebuttal here is “Jokić has barely had Gordon alongside him” — and that’s fair. Let’s filter for the possessions Gordon has been on the floor with Jokić within this coverage:

• 2020-21: 1.035 PPP

• 2021-22: 0.995 PPP

• 2022-23: 0.975 PPP

• 2023-24: 0.826 PPP 

• 2024-25: 0.875 PPP

• 2025-26: 1.00 PPP

There’s more context to add, of course: Peyton Watson and Christian Braun have both missed substantial time. Even with a more aggressive coverage like this, it’s still important to have strong point-of-attack defenders so Jokić doesn’t have to “hold” or contain as long — it’s no surprise that the 2023-24 season coincided with an All-Defense-caliber season from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, for example.

With all of that being said, the Nuggets defense, while underwhelming overall, has still been over a point better per 100 possessions with Jokić on the court — though, again, his splits with and without Gordon are as loud as you’d imagine — and the defensive side of estimated plus-minus (D-EPM) has Jokić grading out as a slight positive (+0.7). 

The Nuggets have given up 0.961 points per possession on trips featuring a pick-and-roll defended by Jokić, a mark ever-so-slightly below (better than) the league average (0.968). You can see the ebbs and flows of his season when you split it up into sections. The dips often reflect when the effort was poor or when the injury context was rough, and you’ll also see the inverse.

Denver’s defense when Jokić defends a PnR (league average during time frame in parentheses): 

• First 10 games (Oct 21-Nov 11): 0.898 PPP (LA: 0.96)

• Next 10 (Nov 12-Dec 1): 1.00 PPP (LA: 0.985)

• Next 12 (Dec 2-29): 0.959 PPP (LA: 0.967)

  • Injured on Dec. 29

• Next 10 (Jan 30-Feb 22): 1.014 PPP (LA: 0.965)

  • Made his return on Jan. 30

• Next 10 (Feb 23-Mar 14: 1.037 PPP (LA: 0.975) 

• Last 11 (Since Mar 15): 0.858 (LA: 0.982)

If we’re keeping track, that’s two stretches wellbelow the league average (good), one slightly below league average (fine), one slightly above league average (less than fine), and two well above league average (bad). 

I ultimately land on this being a rough-by-his-standards year, but there’s still been enough good — especially as of late — where it’s hard to argue he’s been bad enough to disqualify. And if he isn’t that, then you have to flip back to the offense, where he’s been virtually unparalleled. 

Again.