AUGUSTA, Ga. — Because there are stats for everything, there are, of course, predictable stats when picking who will win the Masters.
For some, they’re mundane. For others, they’re gospel
Recent winners have:
Gained 18 strokes tee-to-green in the four tournaments leading into the Masters
Played in the weeks leading up to the tournament
Ranked in top 40 in par-5 scoring
Have already won a tournament this season
Mostly what past Masters winners have in common is … they’re really, really good.
2025: Rory McIlory, ranked No. 2 in the world
2024: Scottie Scheffler, ranked No. 1 in the world
2023: Jon Rahm, ranked No. 3 in the world
2022: Scottie Scheffler, ranked No. 1 in the world
Scheffler heads into 90th Masters as the favorite yet again at +600, but he is not among our picks to win … because that would be no fun.
Jay Busbee: Bryson DeChambeau (+1200)
Had DeChambeau wrestled the green jacket off Rory McIlroy’s back last year, he would have instantly become the most unpopular champion since Stewart Cink snatched the Claret Jug out of Tom Watson’s hands at the 2009 Open Championship. But with McIlroy now a champion, DeChambeau is free to go out and claim a jacket of his own without worrying about what anyone will think of him. The big guy has finishes of T5 and T6 over the last two years, suggesting he’s figured this place out. (The less said about his plans to turn Augusta National into a “par 67” back in 2021, the better.) He’s lost a heartbreaker, which means he’s ready to win.
Dan Wolken: Ludvig Åberg (+1400)
If you believe Åberg is going to win majors — and I do — he's likely to break through in the Masters, where he has finished second and seventh in his two starts. Obviously Åberg can hit it a mile and is one of the best iron players on tour, but he's now at the point where his experience getting around Augusta should really start to pay off. Åberg is also coming into this tournament in excellent form, with a tie for third at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a tie for fifth at The Players. According to Datagolf.com, Åberg’s strokes gained on approach in those two events were better than all but one tournament he played in 2025, suggesting he's back in the kind of ball striking form that got him to No. 4 in the world two years ago. If he can hold his nerve on Sunday, he'll be the winner.
Jay Hart: Jon Rahm (+1000)
We’ll forgive you if you were unaware that Rahm is currently on a heater. Had he posted the following results on the PGA Tour — 2, 2, 1, 5, 2 (lost in playoff) — he’d be the betting favorite. But because those results came on the LIV tour, well, he’ll head to Augusta behind Scottie Scheffler (550-1100) in the odds. It’s been three years since his Masters win, but when he’s on, Rahm is in contention at Augusta. And right now … he’s most certainly on.
Ryan Young: Ludvig Åberg (+1400)
It’s finally time that Ludvig Åberg breaks through with his big win at Augusta. He’s come close twice now, and would have won in his Masters debut back in 2024 if it weren’t for the often unbeatable Scottie Scheffler. Åberg seems to have this course down, or at the very least isn’t intimidated by it. And, he’s got three straight top-five finishes under his belt entering the week. That rough start to the season he had is well behind him. Åberg gets it done this week, giving us another year with a European champion.
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