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NBA Mock Draft 2.0: Full projections for both rounds with regular season in the books

The NBA playoffs are finally here! Though the play-in tournament results will determine the final draft lottery odds, we’ve got a pretty good idea about how things will fall. Last mock, I played out the scenario in which Darryn Peterson tumbled out of the top three due to medical concerns. Today, we're doing the opposite now that the order is mostly set with a clean board and standard order. Let’s get to it with both the first and second rounds.


1. Washington Wizards

A.J. Dybantsa, 6-9, BYU freshman forward

Congratulations to the Wizards for their hard work tanking their way to only 17 wins, ending the year on a high note with a 10-game losing streak! At worst, the Wizards can end up with the fifth pick. But we’ll save that nightmare scenario for a future mock. For now, the Wizards stick with the first pick and land Dybantsa, who led the nation in scoring as a freshman by averaging 25.5 points for a top-25 team. At 6-foot-9, players his size are not supposed to move with the herky-jerky elasticity that Dybantsa does. He can dunk over defenders. He can stop on a dime and fade away from midrange. And he can catch fire from behind the line too. BYU head coach Kevin Young said Dybantsa’s scoring talent is “in rare air with some of the greats.” Over the course of his freshman year, he began to make dramatic progress as a passer, too, as shown with his cross-court, bull’s-eye passes to find shooters.

If the Wizards land him with the top pick, they could be getting the face of the franchise they need to headline a young roster with some appealing talents, such as center Alex Sarr, wing Kyshawn George, and guard Tre Johnson. And perhaps Trae Young and Anthony Davis could return next season and help Dybantsa win as a rookie.

(Hassan Ahmad/Yahoo Sports Illustration)
(Hassan Ahmad/Yahoo Sports Illustration)

2. Indiana Pacers

Darryn Peterson, 6-6, Kansas freshman guard

Tyrese Haliburton told Pacers fans not to get used to no games being played in April, May and June. Odds are, he’s right. Indiana has a lot of talent on the roster, and as long as Haliburton can return to his All-NBA level, whomever gets picked will be the cherry on top. With Dybantsa off the board, the Pacers could take a look at Cam Boozer with this pick — that’s who I had in my last mock — but would Indiana become too big with Ivica Zubac, Pascal Siakam and Boozer? Is there enough perimeter defense with that group? Maybe Boozer would be more of a successor to Siakam.

But if there's one thing the Pacers are definitely missing, it's some scoring juice. Andrew Nembhard is very talented, but he doesn't have star upside. Neither do young investments like Aaron Nesmith, Ben Sheppard, Kam Jones, Jarace Walker and Johnny Furphy. That’s why Peterson would make total sense. The shot-making is real. He can pull up from anywhere and get to his spots. Plus he is 6-6 and plays with a fluidity that just screams superstar. Not to mention he’s a defensive playmaker with the tools to guard multiple positions and the approach to impact the game even if he’s not scoring.

Between the cramping saga, the missed time, the lack of apparent athletic pop and the stretches where he played heavy minutes but struggled to produce offensively, there’s a lot to be concerned about. But the pre-draft period could answer many questions. And for the Pacers, he could be worth the swing anyway. Because if he’s a hit, Haliburton-Peterson would have the upside to be the NBA’s best backcourt for the next decade.

3. Brooklyn Nets

Cameron Boozer, 6-9, Duke freshman forward

The Nets need a leader. Boozer fits the bill. He’s a do-it-all offensive talent who can post up, run pick-and-rolls, set screens, spot up and crash the boards. He doesn’t need to rely on bully ball to make an impact as a scorer or passer. Defensively, some of the questions about him popped up in Duke’s heartbreaking Elite 8 loss to UConn: He wasn’t big enough to defend Tarris Reed, and he got smoked by Alex Karaban on a key 3-pointer on the perimeter. But he plays hard and has improved at every weakness in his game so far. That approach is exactly the type of player Brooklyn needs.

4. Utah Jazz

Caleb Wilson, 6-10, North Carolina freshman big

Between Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Walker Kessler, the Jazz already have a lot of bigs. But adding arguably the most gifted athlete in the draft class in Wilson would add a player with star upside to the mix. He's 6-10 with springs for legs, and when he's flying above the rim, finishing through contact and chasing down everything in his area code, he looks like a future cornerstone.

But the case against Wilson is pretty clear too. Despite all his positives, he hasn’t shown consistency as a shooter at any level. Then a broken left hand in February and a fractured right thumb in March ended his season before he could prove himself on the biggest stage. There are plenty of guards who should intrigue the Jazz too — especially Illinois’ Keaton Wagler — that could fit alongside Keyonte George for years to come. But for this mock, let’s pretend Utah builds a jumbo team.

5. Sacramento Kings

Darius Acuff, 6-3, Arkansas freshman guard

The Kings need an engine. Someone who can put butts in seats again. That player could be Acuff, who entered college with a scoring reputation, but has emerged as a skilled, low-turnover playmaker who also displayed leadership qualities. Still, getting buckets is what he does best. He is a wiry scorer who can get a bucket from anywhere on the floor with a quick trigger, slippery handle, and a feel for manipulating defenses. He can thrive off-ball, too, as a shooter and cutter, giving him the flexibility to play with and without the ball.

Even though he has his defensive shortcomings, he looks like a future All-Star who can toggle between a score-first or pass-first approach. There are “safer” picks on the board, but Acuff offers a sky-high ceiling that Sacramento needs.

6. Memphis Grizzlies

Keaton Wagler, 6-6, Illinois freshman guard

After staying stagnant most of the year with the eighth-best odds, Dallas and New Orleans picked up some late wins to help the Grizzlies slip into the sixth spot, which comes with 3% better odds at the first pick and 11% better odds at the top four. This difference better positions the Grizzlies to find their replacement for Ja Morant. And the answer could be Wagler, who was never expected to be a one-and-done, and yet he led Illinois all the way to the Final Four. And in the loss to UConn, he ultimately felt like their only hope for any shot creation.

Wagler isn’t an elite vertical athlete, as evidenced by his zero dunks on the year. But he is 6-6 with a long wingspan, has elite footwork, can decelerate on drives and has an excellent feel for the game. He could be a perfect fit for head coach Tuomas Iisalo’s pick-and-roll offense. There’s a chance Wagler goes much higher than this, but if he lands with Memphis, he could grow alongside a center like Zach Edey, a wing like Cedric Coward and a long list of young talents still under 25 years old. 

7. Atlanta Hawks (via New Orleans)

Mikel Brown, 6-5, Louisville freshman guard

It really is quite sad that the Pelicans couldn’t dig their way out of the NBA's garbage can division. But good for the Hawks. They’ve been one of the best teams in basketball for months. And now they have a 9.8% chance of ending up with the top pick, thanks to the Pelicans/Bucks pick swap. If they stay put in this range, drafting a guard could make sense. CJ McCollum is 34, but his versatile style playing with and without the ball fits perfectly in the Atlanta backcourt. Someone who could grow into that role is Brown.

When Brown is in the zone, he has an unstoppable pull-up jumper, shows an ambidextrous finishing ability and makes quick reads to rifle passes before the defense has time to react. He had a 45-point breakout performance in February, but a back injury dogged him throughout his freshman year. If Brown had stayed healthy, he might be going much higher. And maybe he’ll play his way into that through pre-draft workouts. But for now, the absences muddy the evaluation and leave real questions about his consistency that may not get answered until he’s fully healthy.

8. Dallas Mavericks

Kingston Flemings, 6-4, Houston freshman guard

Beating the Blazers, Lakers and Bulls over the last nine games of the season has to sting, at least if you’re a Mavericks fan who was rooting for better lottery odds. Maybe falling from sixth to eighth will work out though. It only took the 11th-best odds to grab Cooper Flagg one year ago. And even in this slot, the Mavericks could find their point guard of the future. And why not stay in Texas?

Flemings entered the season as the least-heralded of Houston's stacked freshman class, but he played his way into the top-10 conversation while his higher-ranked teammates played their way out of it. He’s a 6-4 ball-handler who can get to his spots, make advanced passes and limit turnovers in a way that resembles a veteran guard. If he lands with Dallas, it’s hard to imagine a better situation. Kyrie Irving could serve as a mentor, and Flemings could grow alongside a future MVP candidate in Flagg.

9. Chicago Bulls

Aday Mara, 7-3, Michigan junior center

Artūras Karnišovas and Marc Eversley got fired. But what really changes? The team felt no different under them than it did with Gar Forman and John Paxson leading the front office. The common denominator: The Reinsdorf family is still in charge. But maybe they just need to hire the right guy. And maybe the right guy can fix this middling organization. And every good team in the NBA has a reliable center. The Bulls don’t. That’s why Mara could fit after he helped lead Michigan to a national championship, raising his draft stock in the process.

Mara reads the floor like a guard, finishes with both hands and swats shots with elite timing. The sequences that Mara could have with skilled passers like Josh Giddey and Matas Buzelis could be breathtaking. The complication is he doesn't shoot well from outside, he makes below 60% of his free throws, and opponents are going to attack him on the perimeter. But size matters.

10. Milwaukee Bucks

Nate Ament, 6-10, Tennessee freshman wing

It would be on brand for Bucks general manager Jon Horst to take a raw prospect with theoretically high upside. Sometimes that player turns into Giannis Antetokounmpo. Other times he turns into Thon Maker. But the logic is the same with Ament, who severely struggled at finishing due to his undeveloped frame and didn’t shoot 3s as well as anticipated after entering the college year with the hopes if turning this draft class into a Big Four.

Players who can handle, shoot off the dribble and stand 6-10 don’t grow on trees. This physical foundation kept Ament in lottery consideration even after a dreadful start to his freshman season when he struggled to score efficiently and make an impact defensively. But over the second half of the year for Tennessee, he flipped a switch and shots began to fall. He averaged 23.8 points over a six-game stretch in January and February that reminded everyone why he was a top recruit in the country. Then he dealt with an ankle injury that ruined his momentum entering March. But the Bucks, no matter what happens with Giannis, may want to take a huge swing.

11. Golden State Warriors

Karim Lopez, 6-8, New Zealand Breakers forward

Lopez is a forward out of Mexico who spent two seasons in the NBL's Next Stars program, averaging nearly 12 points and six rebounds. He's a smart cutter who finds scoring lanes within the flow of the offense, a solid shooter, and a versatile defender. That two-way versatility would work well with the Warriors, who need to replenish the roster with some upside.

Draymond Green could actually be quite a good mentor for Lopez, given they’re both hard-nosed players who make a winning effort at all times on the court. But the Warriors may not even end up with a lottery pick if they win their way out of the play-in. I know what I’d rather have if I’m a Warriors fan though: Give me the lottery odds.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via LA Clippers)

Yaxel Lendeborg, 6-9, Michigan senior forward

The Clippers face off against the Warriors in Wednesday night’s play-in game. I just can’t imagine the reaction if they actually lose, because whoever does will end up with the 11th-best odds. The same spot that Dallas had moving up to the top pick last year. Can you imagine?

Well, if this Clippers pick stays put here, there’s still plenty of talent available for the Thunder. Lendeborg comes to mind, and there’s a chance he goes even higher than this despite the fact he’ll be 24 as a rookie. The heart he showed playing through injury to help lead Michigan to a national championship cannot be understated. And despite his age, he offers do-it-all upside. He fills the stat sheet with points, boards and everything else, he can play multiple positions, and he has a 7-foot-4 wingspan at 240 pounds with a genuine handle.

Lendeborg got better every year as a shooter in college and ended up making 37.2% of his 3-pointers on 4.5 per game as a senior. The Thunder have actually fallen to the middle of the pack in 3-point shooting, so adding a knockdown guy who can play right away on a rookie-scale contract could add additional value.

Apr 6, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Michigan Wolverines forward Yaxel Lendeborg (23) celebrates after their win against the UConn Huskies in the national championship of the Final Four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament between the  and the Michigan Wolverines at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images
Michigan Wolverines forward Yaxel Lendeborg (23) celebrates after their win against the UConn Huskies in the national championship at Lucas Oil Stadium.
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect / REUTERS

13. Miami Heat

Hannes Steinbach, 6-11, Washington freshman big

Erik Spoelstra just doesn’t have any trust in Kel’el Ware. Even if things work out, it wouldn’t hurt making another investment in the frontcourt with the type of player that has all the qualities that Spo admires. Steinbach played professionally in Germany before enrolling at Washington, and he’ll enter the NBA with some ready-made skills as an interior scorer and rebounder. He has massive hands that he uses to grab every possible rebound and finish effectively around the basket.

He also showed legitimate touch on 3-pointers in flashes, which would turn him into a very different player if it becomes real. Given how successful the Heat were at helping Bam Adebayo develop his 3-pointer, Steinbach could see the same trajectory in Miami. Additionally, Steinbach probably needs a Bam type next to him in the frontcourt since he’s a bit of a modern tweener himself. Steinbach is not a true 7-footer, and there are specific matchups where he gets targeted in space. He needs to be the right kind of center for the right team. That could be Miami.

14. Charlotte Hornets

Brayden Burries, 6-4, Arizona freshman guard

Burries struggled in Arizona’s final NCAA tournament games against Purdue and Michigan, but he looked like a star against Arkansas. With Arizona up 13 with only 3:20 to go in the Elite 8, Burries dove head first for a loose ball, grabbed it, then flipped it to his teammate for an open layup. Some players would’ve relaxed with the big lead, but Burries stays pedal to the metal. Hustle plays like that, and the flashes of stardom as a shot creator, helped him earn his spot as a potential lottery pick.

He plays with physicality and can beat you from all three levels. He's a methodical creator rather than an explosive one, but that could work in Charlotte with LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel already absorbing so many touches. It would allow Burries to slide in as a Swiss Army Knife in the backcourt that fills different needs depending on what the matchup demands.

15. Chicago Bulls (via Portland)

Braylon Mullins, 6-6, UConn freshman wing

This pick will belong to the Blazers if they lose in the play-in. So all Bulls fans should be rooting hard for Portland to win on Tuesday (then Friday). After selecting a center in Mara with their first pick, let’s go with a shooter here. Mullins hit one of the greatest buzzer-beaters in college basketball history to send Connecticut to the Final Four, and he hit a ton of big-time shots off movement actions against stout defense by Illinois and Michigan, too.

Mullins shot only 33.5% on the season, but he’s a way better shooter than the number indicates. And though he needs others to generate looks at this stage of his career, he’s more than just a specialist with his nose for the ball and his defensive IQ, which led to so many little gritty moments that helped UConn stay competitive all the way to the final buzzer.

OH MY GOODNESS 😱

UCONN LEADSSSS UNBELIEVABLE #MarchMadnesspic.twitter.com/IPX2JWiw0b

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 29, 2026

16. Memphis Grizzlies (via Orlando)

Dailyn Swain, 6-8, Texas junior wing

Swain would be another upside play for Memphis. He played two competent seasons at Xavier, transferred to Texas, and somehow became the most efficient isolation scorer in the entire country. He's relentless getting to the rim, creative as a finisher and active enough defensively to project as a switchable wing.

But the reason he lives at the rim is because his jump shot is genuinely ugly. He has stiff mechanics, bad percentages and a reluctance to even attempt it that goes all the way back to high school. Until his shooting becomes a credible threat, defenses are going to pack the paint and dare him to beat them from the outside. With Coward, Wagler and tons of other shooters on the roster, there’d be plenty of space for Swain to operate inside the arc, though, providing a balance with his downhill attacking.

17. Charlotte Hornets (via Phoenix)

Thomas Haugh, 6-9, Florida junior forward

Florida won the national title one year ago, and Haugh was the guy doing all the work by diving on the floor, taking charges, screening hard, cutting through traffic and running the break. Then this season he did all of that on top of becoming the team's offensive engine. But Florida wasn’t as dominant and flamed out in the Sweet 16 for a reason.

Haugh hasn’t proven he can drive left or shoot off the dribble at any meaningful clip, and even the spot-up jumper is still a work in progress. Haugh’s work ethic is elite, though, which is exactly what the Hornets would be betting on and would fit the spirit of so many of their picks from last year too. 

18. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Philadelphia)

Labaron Philon, 6-4, Alabama sophomore guard

Philon is a shifty, score-first point guard who turned into one of the best guards in college basketball as a sophomore. He doubled his scoring output with buttery floaters, a deceptive handle and a feel for running an offense, while also beginning to shore up the shooting questions that once clouded his projection.

There probably wouldn’t be a better place for him to learn slowly than Oklahoma City, because he still needs time in the weight room after playing last season at only 180 pounds. With Cason Wallace's deal up after next season, and Ajay Mitchell, Jared McCain, Nikola Topić and Isaiah Joe the following year, some minutes could open soon. 

19. Toronto Raptors

Bennett Stirtz, 6-4, Iowa senior guard

Stirtz feels the game at a different frequency than everyone else on the floor, and yet still makes scouts squint because he doesn't look the part athletically. At age 24 for a rookie, he’s also on the older end. The question isn't whether he can play though.

After transferring from Drake to Iowa, he kept cooking with bull’s-eye passes, pump-fakes and shooting touch off the dribble from NBA range. The odds are that’ll carry over to the next level, especially if he lands on a team like the Raptors that can surround him with size, length and versatility. And Toronto needs another engine to the offense; if Stirtz adjusts to the physicality and speed of the NBA, he could thrive as both a floor general or off-ball connector.

20. San Antonio Spurs (via Atlanta)

Cameron Carr, 6-5, Baylor redshirt sophomore wing

The Spurs could go so many different directions with this pick. That’s the benefit of having Victor Wembanyama as the centerpiece. With plenty of downhill attacking, thanks to their point guard trio, adding another role player to help someday succeed Harrison Barnes could be a wise move.

Carr shot nearly 40% from 3 on high volume, and looked like a 3-and-D role player who also has tantalizing skills off the dribble. With NBA genes in his blood as the son of former player Chris Carr, Cameron has the skills to make it. But at 175 pounds with not a ton of games under his belt, he's going to get introduced to the NBA's physicality in a way that might limit his ability to get to his spots as a scorer. So he’ll need patience, and fortunately the Spurs are deep enough that they can provide it.

21. Detroit Pistons (via Minnesota)

Isaiah Evans, 6-6, Duke sophomore wing

Evans is a legitimate sharpshooter with the off-ball chops to thrive without even running any offense for himself, which is a perfect fit in Detroit, where Cade Cunningham needs live targets in the corners. The Pistons were 29th in 3-point attempts and 17th in 3-point percentage this season, so more shooters like Evans are needed who can spot up and run around screens. As a sophomore, Evans made great progress on-ball as well, so in the long term he could have higher upside as a shot-creator.

22. Philadelphia 76ers (via Houston)

Motiejus Krivas, 7-2, Arizona junior center

Good grief. Could this season have ended any more horribly for the Sixers? Joel Embiid returns from injury, plays five games, dominates more than he has all season. And then he gets sidelined because of ... an appendectomy. The odds are he’ll be out for the play-in tournament, but if the Sixers escape and end up in the playoffs there's a chance he returns. Still, the Sixers would be wise to target a big who can back up Embiid.

Krivas is a 7-2 Lithuanian center who does the old-school things by rebounding, protecting the rim and scoring in the post. But he also brings a modern flair with his ability to make good reads as a passer and the flashes he shows as a shooter. Krivas could anchor bench units when Embiid is healthy, and potentially play a bigger role when he’s not. No matter what happens with Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe are both young pieces who need a big man to support them. Krivas has all the tools needed.

23. Atlanta Hawks (via Cleveland)

Chris Cenac, 6-11, Houston freshman big

If Cenac gets feedback that he’ll be a late first-round pick, he very well might just go back to Houston for his sophomore year. There’s a reason why he might end up in this range though. He checks every box on paper as a superb athlete who moves like a wing, has the length to alter shots and has a habit for shooting from the perimeter. But the Cougars fell short again, in part because Cenac struggled to stay out of foul trouble, couldn’t score efficiently and was overeager to play on the perimeter despite having the body of a bruiser. If the Hawks draft him, he’s more of a developmental project. But there’s no harm in taking a swing when the roster has roles already occupied, especially after grabbing a guard in Brown in the lottery.

24. Los Angeles Lakers

Patrick Ngongba, 6-11, Duke sophomore center

The Lakers are finding out how good Deandre Ayton can look when he’s hustling. But there’s no guarantee it’ll be sustained, and they need a better long-term answer anyway. Ngongba does the dirty work without complaining about it: set screens, run the floor, make the right read, protect the rim, and do it all again the next play and the one after that. Ngongba did it as the backbone of one of the best teams in the country before a foot issue derailed the end of his season, which played a factor in Duke’s inability to reach the Final Four. He had two screws placed in his right foot during high school, then had lingering issues in his left foot as a freshman before his right foot became an issue again as a sophomore. Those injuries are why Ngongba could be available at the end of the first round.

25. New York Knicks

Alex Karaban, 6-8, UConn senior forward

Karaban sprinted off a curl, caught the ball while moving away from the basket, turned, and then fired a massive 3-pointer in the closing minute of UConn’s epic comeback over Duke in the Elite 8. The moment is emblematic of his shooting ability, which would be a positive addition to the Knicks. Karaban will be 24 as a rookie, but he’s just a winner. He cuts. He passes. He’s a high-IQ defender who’s always in the right position. He doesn’t create his own shots, but the Knicks have plenty of guys who can do that. What Karaban would add is winning intangibles to a team trying to take the next step.

26. Denver Nuggets

Koa Peat, 6-8, Arizona freshman forward

Peat's bloodline is so loaded with offensive linemen that it's almost funny he ended up playing basketball. His father played nine NFL seasons. His uncle was a Pro Bowl tackle. Two brothers played college ball on the line. And you can absolutely see it in how he plays: powerful, physical, relentless, and it genuinely takes something special to stop him from getting to where he wants to go. But he also shoots like a football player, taking only 20 shots from 3 and making just 62.3% of his free throws.

Scouts question how well he’ll fit in the NBA. But the Nuggets have a way of making everyone fit with Nikola Jokić. And with Peyton Watson entering free agency this summer, the Nuggets may need to fortify the forward spot. The Nuggets can afford to be patient, deciding to bet on his development, with the hopes that he someday becomes a reliable shooter. Just like Watson.

27. Boston Celtics

Morez Johnson, 6-9, Michigan sophomore forward

Michigan is filled with so much star power that Johnson is the guy who often gets overlooked nationally. He’s a 250-pound wrecking ball with surprisingly soft hands and the defensive IQ to guard 1 through 5 in a switch-heavy scheme. And he makes constant plays beyond the box score with bone-crushing screens, full-court sprints and high-IQ rotations that blow up the opponent’s action. The Celtics have targeted team-first guys like Johnson in recent years, so he’d fit the profile here after proving himself as the connective tissue of the best team in the country. He isn’t quite big enough to be a true center and not yet proven enough as a shooter to guarantee he spaces the floor. But the Celtics can be patient and are proving to have a strong developmental program to help resolve any concerns.

28. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Detroit)

Christian Anderson, 6-3, Texas Tech sophomore guard

Anderson showed up at Texas Tech as the 101st-ranked recruit and has played his way into the first round behind dynamic pick-and-roll creation and knockdown perimeter shooting. Mike Conley isn’t getting any younger in Minnesota, Rob Dillingham is gone, and Bones Hyland is no guarantee to stay next season. That’s where Anderson could help right away with his ability to thrive with and without the ball. At his small stature, he hasn’t shown a consistent ability to get to the rim with any regularity, though, and he struggled to create his own shot when Texas Tech lost in the tournament. Any small guard will always be a target on defense, too, so there’s a lot of pressure on his shot translating to the next level. But at least he’d have long-armed wings and bigs around him as support in Minnesota.

29. Cleveland Cavaliers (via San Antonio)

Jayden Quaintance, 6-10, Kentucky sophomore big

Quaintance is going to get drafted based almost entirely on what he looked like before his knee exploded. As a freshman at Arizona State, he was blocking everything in sight, showing defensive instincts and mobility that players with his 6-10 frame aren't supposed to have, and he was 17 years old doing it. Then came the ACL, the meniscus, the fractured knee, the transfer to Kentucky, persistent swelling, and a shutdown for the remainder of his sophomore season. Now teams have to make a decision after 28 games of great defense and eyesore offense. He might not fall this far. But if he does, it’d make perfect sense for the Cavaliers to scoop him up since he could operate as a backup to Jarrett Allen and as a small-ball center next to Evan Mobley.

30. Dallas Mavericks (via Oklahoma City)

Ebuka Okorie, 6-2, Stanford freshman guard

After landing Flemings in the lottery as their point guard of the future, the Mavericks can use this pick to double down on the backcourt with a different kind of bet. Okorie spent his freshman year at Stanford proving he belonged in the first-round conversation. He's a live-wire guard with a tight handle, the burst to turn the corner, and the pull-up range to keep defenders honest. Where Flemings is the steady, low-turnover table-setter, Okorie is the shot-maker who can come off the bench and generate offense when the starters need a breather.

He can fall in love with the step-back and settle for tough shots, but that was partially his role at Stanford and he flashed enough playmaking to suggest he could become a lead guard too. At 6-2 with an average wingspan, he's going to get hunted on defense, and that's the kind of thing that could scare teams off in the lottery. But at the end of the first round, it starts to look like a bargain. With Kyrie aging, pairing Flemings and Okorie gives Dallas two young guards to bet on, and hope that one or both of them end up as Flagg’s co-star for years to come.


SECOND ROUND


31. New York Knicks: Alex Condon, Florida junior big

Condon is a high-octane Aussie big with a relentless motor, versatile defense and the playmaking pizzazz for no-look dimes. With Mitchell Robinson entering free agency this summer, the Knicks may need another big.

32. Memphis Grizzlies: Juke Harris, Wake Forest sophomore wing

Harris reportedly has some lucrative NIL offers to stay in college, meaning he may not even end up in this draft class after averaging 21.4 points last season as a highly versatile shooter with a 6-foot-7 frame. But if he does stay, he’d make perfect sense as another investment in Memphis’ backcourt.

33. Brooklyn Nets: Tyler Tanner, Vanderbilt sophomore guard

Tanner can probably make himself a lot more money if he stays in school. But as a high-flying, sweet-stroking small guard he finds himself still in the late first-round conversation, and the early second at worst.

34. Sacramento Kings: Amari Allen, Alabama freshman forward

As a 6-7 wing, Allen does a little bit of everything without needing touches, rebounds like a big and displays incredible defensive versatility. The concern is purely about his upside, since he hasn’t shown many star flashes.

35. San Antonio Spurs: Meleek Thomas, Arkansas freshman guard

It’s not like the Spurs need another guard. But how could you pass up Thomas at this point? He's a talented shotmaker who can provide microwave offense. And he’s an active defender too.

36. Los Angeles Clippers: Henri Veesaar, North Carolina junior big

Veesaar is an agile big with real shooting touch, connective playmaking, and baseline big skills with the ability to set screens and catch lobs. He also offers rim protection and is a locked-in help defender. Brook Lopez won’t start forever, so the Clippers need to make more investments in the future.

37. Oklahoma City Thunder: Dame Sarr, Duke freshman wing

Sarr is exactly the type of player who will probably return to school. But for now, we’ll keep him in the mock. The Thunder could stash him, only to see Sarr turn into the new Lu Dort three years from now.

38. Chicago Bulls: Sergio De Larrea, Valencia guard

De Larrea is a tall playmaking guard with a major feel and a knockdown jumper who thrives within team concepts. With size, smarts and defensive versatility, he could carve out a rotation role if his limited sample proves scalable.

39. Houston Rockets: Tarris Reed, UConn senior center

Reed is an interior bruiser, rebounder and shot-blocker. Steven Adams is getting old and injury prone. Reed is an investment in a future without him. 

40. Boston Celtics: Tounde Yessoufou, Baylor freshman wing

Yessoufou entered Baylor as a projected lottery pick with freakish athleticism, a relentless motor and the kind of physicality that makes scouts dream. But Baylor missed the tournament, he’s still a shaky shooter, and he needs to improve his passing feel. There would be no better culture to learn in than the Celtics’.

41. Miami Heat: Allen Graves, Santa Clara freshman forward

The analytics love Graves. He came off the bench and scored only 11.8 points, but he filled the stat sheet, hit over 40% of his 3s, and could find himself in the first round if he decides not to stay in college.

42. San Antonio Spurs: Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State senior forward

Jefferson can pass out of the post, make connective reads and guard multiple positions. He just needs his shooting progress to prove to be real, and right now there's not enough of a sample to be sure it is. The Spurs can help him there.

43. Brooklyn Nets: Zuby Ejiofor, St. John’s senior big

Ejiofor brings an edge to the floor that could help instill a winning culture in Brooklyn, especially as a partner next to Boozer for years to come.

44. San Antonio Spurs: Luigi Suigo, Mega center

It’s hard to imagine the Spurs would keep all of these picks. But if they do, there’d have to be at least one stash in there. Why not a 7-2 mammoth who displays mobility and hits some 3s? You never know what those guys can turn into.

45. Sacramento Kings: Alijah Arenas, USC freshman guard

Arenas would be better served returning to school to improve his draft stock. But staying in California to hone his scoring talents at the professional level could have appeal too.

46. Phoenix Suns: Keyshawn Hall, Auburn senior forward

Hall became a do-it-all weapon for Auburn, and in the NBA his 6-7 frame and reliable stroke from 3 give him 3-and-D potential. He’d fit like a glove in the Phoenix rotation.

47. Dallas Mavericks: Milan Momcilovic, Iowa State junior forward 

At 6-8, Momcilovic made 48.7% of his 7.5 3-pointers per game. That's all you gotta know about what he's capable of as a shooter.

48. Orlando Magic: Joseph Tugler, Houston junior forward

Tugler is a defensive force with freaky length and an insatiable motor that lets him guard anyone. The Magic need a tone-setter like him.

49. Toronto Raptors: Ryan Conwell, Louisville senior guard

Conwell has shotmaking skill as a high-volume shooting guard, which could eventually earn him some minutes in Toronto’s rotation.

50. Denver Nuggets: Milos Uzan, Houston senior guard

Uzan is a high-IQ combo guard who knits teams together with his playmaking skills and defensive hustle. The Nuggets tend to value guys in that mold.

51. Washington Wizards: Michael Ružić, Joventut forward

Ružić is a raw Croatian forward who was born in France and now plays in Spain. He projects as a quality shooter with passing feel, though he’s incredibly raw.

52. Houston Rockets: Braden Smith, Purdue senior point guard

Smith was one of the best point guards in college basketball, but he projects as a rotation guy in the NBA. The Rockets could potentially use his creation off the bench.

53. Los Angeles Clippers: Jaden Bradley, Arizona senior guard

Arizona looked hopeless any time Bradley wasn't on the floor. He's a stabilizing guard, he hits big shots, and he makes plays on defense. He might be a senior, but he has the tools to get drafted. 

54. Golden State Warriors: Trevon Brazile, Arkansas senior forward 

Brazile once had some believers that he could end up a first-round pick in the NBA before injuries set him back. But as a senior, he finally looked like the bouncy, versatile forward that put him back on draft boards.

55. New York Knicks: Mouhamed Faye, Paris center

Faye would be another big man for the Knicks, but he’d likely be a draft-and-stash to develop overseas.

56. Chicago Bulls: Baba Miller, Cincinnati senior forward

Miller has long been a fascination of scouts as a 6-11 guy who can handle the ball. But he never really put it together as a shooter. Maybe the Bulls could have better luck than any of the three schools he went to.

57. Atlanta Hawks: Dash Daniels, Melbourne guard

Hey, why not draft Dyson’s brother? Dash can’t really dribble right now but, much like his brother, he’s a fantastic defender. He could be worth the investment for Atlanta.

58. New Orleans Pelicans: Rueben Chinyelu, Florida junior big

Chinyelu is an elite rebounder and rim protector. It might be important to pair Derik Queen with a guy like that for the long term.

59. Minnesota Timberwolves: Richie Saunders, BYU senior wing

Saunders is a hard-nosed, two-way wing who plays with manic energy and a quick trigger jumper. But he tore his ACL and is already 25 years old.

60. Washington Wizards: JT Toppin, Texas Tech junior forward

Toppin is a defensive stalwart with elite athleticism, quick hands, and the motor of someone who genuinely cannot stop competing. The issue is he’s limited offensively and tore his ACL, which puts him in a tough spot of deciding whether to stay another year in school or go recover in the NBA.

Before yesterdayMain stream

The Assassin vs. The Alien: My 2026 NBA MVP vote

It should have been the easiest MVP decision in years.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the reigning MVP and Finals MVP, and he’s even better this season. He is the best player on the best team, and he has been that for the entire season from the Thunder's absurd 24-1 start all the way to a 64-18 finish to hold on to the top seed.

The case for Shai to win a second-straight MVP should be the cleanest, most boring, most airtight argument in basketball. Best player, best team, historic consistency, game winners, defending champion. Pencils down. Go home.

Except, there’s a guy by the name of Victor Wembanyama.

On the night of March 30, SGA had one of his most memorable games of his entire dominant season. He scored 47 points, including 31 in the second half and in overtime to beat the Pistons. But hours earlier, Wemby had 41 points with 16 rebounds in 31 minutes, shooting 17-of-27, while swatting three shots. It was his first of consecutive 40-point double-doubles — the first player in Spurs history to pull that off, a franchise whose annals include David Robinson and some guy named Tim Duncan.

This is what the MVP race had become in its final month — a nightly game of Can You Top This between a Canadian assassin and a French alien who is doing things that have no historical comparison because no one with his dimensions has ever possessed his skill set.

(Davis Long/Yahoo Sports Illustration)
(Davis Long/Yahoo Sports Illustration)

And there’s a guy by the name of Nikola Jokić, too. A three-time MVP averaging 28/13/11, still at his peak powers offensively, and still playing a version of basketball that nobody else can replicate. Down the stretch, Jokić won the battle against Wemby, scoring 40 points and hitting clutch shots in overtime, including his signature Sombor Shuffle over the outreached arm of Wembanyama. A seemingly impossible task that only Jokić is capable of.

But Jokić will finish third on my ballot. The Nuggets were in the bottom 10 in defensive rating, and Jokić was nowhere near as impactful at getting stops as he was in any of his three previous MVP seasons. Denver had a 115.2 defensive rating with Jokić to 115.7 without him. An MVP is supposed to move that number. He didn't. This regression was largely due to a hyperextended knee in December that eroded his defense. In most years, Jokić would have still done more than enough, but that's the margin on a tight ballot.

Jaylen Brown carried Boston to the 2-seed after key roster losses last summer and without Jayson Tatum for most of the year. He is in consideration for a top-five spot, but he didn’t perform at the level of the aforementioned three. Meanwhile, the NBA will deliver word about the award eligibility status of Luka Dončić and Cade Cunningham. Neither of them will crack the top three, but both had sensational seasons. All of them deserved a cleaner runway to my MVP vote. None got it because of the unprecedented performances of SGA and Wemby.

This has been, without a doubt, the most thrilling and most difficult choice I have ever had to make for NBA MVP in my 10 seasons as a voter. It's come down to a question I've never really had to answer on a ballot before: How much do you trust what the box score won’t tell you? One of these guys carries his team in the most visible way the sport allows. The other carries it in ways the box score doesn't have language for.

The case for SGA: He was even better than last year

SGA averaged 31.6 points on a 66.5% true shooting mark, the second-most efficient season any 30-point scorer has ever had, trailing only the 2015-16 Steph Curry year that broke people's brains. He did it while defending a title. While absorbing every opponent's best shot. While leading a roster where nine rotation players missed at least 10 games, including his co-pilot, Jalen Williams, who missed more than half the year. Young core, deep playoff run, roster churn, bad injury luck. The Thunder had every ingredient of a hangover team. SGA did not let the year get away from them. 

He was also better than he was last season. This is because he is reading the game at a level he wasn't a year ago. Part of that is forced on him. SGA gets doubled more than any guard in basketball — on 21% of all his touches. Last season, the Thunder scored 1.16 points per play when Shai got doubled. An elite number that trailed only Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant, of all players to get doubled at least 500 times. This season, that number jumped to 1.23 for Shai, putting him in first place of 39 qualifying players.

Gilgeous-Alexander looks like he’s mastered how to carve up a defense. SGA averages 31.1 points and creates 17.5 points per game for teammates on 6.6 assists, all three numbers well clear of Wembanyama's 25 points and 3.1 assists creating 7.9 points. He posted a career-best assist-to-turnover ratio, showing a better feel for surveying the floor, manipulating defenders, and creating quality shots.

On March 9, Gilgeous-Alexander posted a season-high 15 assists and had zero turnovers against the Nuggets, who doubled him on 22 of his 94 touches. This clip from the first quarter shows what type of defense he was facing all game:

pic.twitter.com/4c5dniQegG

— KevinOVideo (@NBAVIDE0S) April 13, 2026

Christian Braun is there to meet SGA at the free throw line. Aaron Gordon is hovering over SGA's left side. Jamal Murray is lurking at the right elbow. Cam Johnson has helped all the way off the corner to stand in the paint. Jokić is on the other side to contain both Jaylin Williams and SGA, leaving Lu Dort open in the corner. So what does SGA do? He takes a couple more dribbles into a sliver of space on the right side of the paint before whipping an overhead pass across the court to Dort for a wide-open 3-pointer.

Shai moves methodically by probing for space, using his tight handle to get anywhere he wants on the floor. He can also slam the accelerator, like he did later in the game by anticipating to beat the double before it could even happen behind the arc:

pic.twitter.com/wf3O9Guj6A

— KevinOVideo (@NBAVIDE0S) April 13, 2026

Four Nuggets collapse into the paint to slow down SGA. He knows that’s coming. He isn’t even looking to score. He slams the breaks, takes a glance at the left corner and sees no angle to pass it to Williams, so like a quarterback in the pocket, he goes to his second option and finds Jared McCain on the wing for another wide-open 3-pointer.

Gilgeous-Alexander’s presence on the court makes his teammates better. Chet Holmgren shoots 9.2% better. Dort shoots 6% better. Ajay Mitchell, 5.1%. Aaron Wiggins, 4.2%, per Databallr. He attracts so much attention that teammates get better quality, open shots. But sometimes, he needs to get it done on his own.

You might remember this game against Denver for a different reason. After Jokić tied the game with a 4-point play with 8.5 seconds left, the ball found SGA, who took one step inside the arc only to see two Nuggets defenders waiting in the paint, so he stepped back into more open space behind the arc to drain an epic game-winning 3. 

“I have answers to the test, but I have to see the questions first,” SGA said after the game. “If I drove to shoot a middy, it was probably going to be contested with two guys. So I tried to separate from the 3 and get a good comfortable shot. And it went down.”

SGA is the player you want the ball in his hands with the game on the line. He is the betting favorite to win Clutch Player of the Year. The irony is that SGA sat out 26 full fourth quarters in the 68 games he played since the Thunder were blasting so many teams. And still, he played 393 more minutes than Wembanyama.

Balancing his playmaking with his bucket-getting has also led to career-highs in scoring efficiency. SGA makes 68% of his shots at the rim, 55% of his midrange pull-ups, and 39% of his 3s off the dribble. All of those marks are up from last season when he already seemed unstoppable. 

Defenses have to pick their poison against him. They definitely don’t want him to get to the rim. And now his 3-pointer has reached a level that it’s as deadly as his midrange game. The pull-up 3 has become less of a hero shot and more of a punishment for a defense that has spent the entire possession trying to deny him everything else.

SGA has become a complete scorer. That’s how he has scored at least 20 points in 140 consecutive regular-season games — an NBA record that broke Wilt Chamberlain's 63-year-old mark and kept going. SGA has not scored under 20 since before Cooper Flagg played at Duke. That’s how long it’s been.

Even his critics on the foul-drawing have to commend the way he sets the tone for the best defense in the league. The Thunder didn't have the top defense in spite of SGA, as is the case for teams with high usage lead ball-handlers. They had it partly because the guy with the ball in his hands refused to take defensive possessions off.

Shai doesn’t match up with the opponent’s best player. There are plenty of other players on the Thunder who do. So usually, Shai hides on a weaker opponent. Playing that off-ball role allows him to roam and cause havoc. He ranked in the top 50 in both assists and deflections. And when he gets challenged, he’s effective. As my Yahoo Sports colleague Nekias Duncan wrote, SGA ranked second both defending pick-and-rolls and off-ball screens.

SGA carried a massive load on offense and always managed to play hard on defense. That set the tone for OKC’s entire roster to once again enter the playoffs as the Finals favorite.

The case for Wemby: Look beyond the box score

Wembanyama is the NBA’s most dominant defender since Bill Russell. It should come as no surprise that when he made his MVP case in front of the media, he led with defense. So let’s start there too.

The Spurs have posted a defensive rating of 103.2 with Wemby in the game. It’s 113.4 without him. That is the largest differential in basketball. He leads the league in blocks at 3.1 per game. Opponents have shot 8.7% worse with him as the closest defender. The numbers only illustrate what the eyes can see: the way he guards two players at once, the way he can contest a shot at the rim while his body is still technically in help position on the weak side, the way he baits players into thinking he’s not looking only to pivot directions and alter or swat the shot. 

Wembanyama’s mere presence causes ball-handlers to turn away from the paint. With Wemby on the floor, opponents take 40.1% of their shots in the paint. With him off the floor, that rises to 48.4%. This 8.3% differential is extremely abnormal: In Rudy Gobert’s four years combined winning Defensive Player of the Year, the differential is 3.5%. Other recent winners? Evan Mobley: 3.1%. Jaren Jackson Jr.: 0.8%. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 1.4%. All are still impactful at deterring shots near the rim. None are on Victor’s level.

Wemby should be the first consensus Defensive Player of the Year. And yes, defense should be a factor in MVP voting. It has always mattered. After losing the race the year prior, defense is what put Michael Jordan over the top in 1988 when he won MVP over Larry Bird and Magic Johnson. It’s why Tim Duncan won MVP in 2002 over Jason Kidd and Shaquille O'Neal. In my years of voting, it’s why Giannis won in back-to-back years. It’s why Jokić didn’t win until 2021, only after he finally got in shape and became a positive interior defender. Defense certainly played a part in why SGA won last year too.

Wemby’s own personal case for MVP continued by mentioning how the Spurs dominated the Thunder this season, beating them 4-1 in the season series. “And my third argument would be that offense impact is not just points,” he said.

Wembanyama had the largest on/off differential in the league. This difference wasn’t just driven by the defense either. It was what he did for San Antonio’s offense. The Spurs had a 120.5 offensive rating with Wembanyama on the court this season, just one point behind the Thunder’s 121.5 offensive rating with SGA on the floor. It’s close between both teams.

Wembanyama averaged 25 points, and if you squint at the shot-type splits you can find things to nitpick. He shot 37.5% out of isolations and 48% out of post-ups, per Synergy. That’s solid, but not the numbers of a guy you'd trust most to bail you out with the shot clock dying. That said, on March 19 against the Suns, down one with a playoff berth on the line, the Spurs put the ball in his hands at the right elbow and cleared out. One long dribble right, one fadeaway over an outstretched arm, and San Antonio was in the postseason.

One shot doesn't make him Kobe Bryant. Wembanyama is a different type of player. Looking at isolations and post-ups alone misses the entire point of what San Antonio is doing with him, because it ranked in the bottom half of the league in both. The Spurs’ offense is built on motion, and Wemby is the thing every action bends around.

Look at how he actually gets his 25. He brings the ball up himself in transition, a 7-foot-7 outlet valve who can go coast-to-coast without a point guard ever touching it. He gets run off more off-ball screening actions than any big man in the league — flares, pindowns, handoffs, the stuff you draw up for shooting guards. He attacks closeouts off the catch, where one long stride is the entire drive. He'll pop out and set a ball screen for a guard, then flip it and let a guard screen for him, an inversion that few bigs are capable of. Every one of those actions starts the defense in rotation before the ball ever gets stuck. Isolations and post-ups are often what happen when an offense runs out of ideas. Wemby is the reason the Spurs never do.

That variety of actions is what causes teams to send so many doubles. When he gains possession of the ball in the midrange, he gets doubled 30% of the time — even higher than Shai — and the Spurs score 1.1 points per play on those touches — also higher than Shai. When Wembanyama first touches the ball outside of the 3-point line, he gets doubled on 20% of those plays — just behind SGA at 22.2% — and the Spurs score an elite 1.1 points per play when he does — a hair behind Shai. If teams don’t double, they’ve seen what the Alien is capable of.

The Spurs generated 12.3 corner 3s per game, the most in the history of the NBA. This is largely due to Wemby, even though he isn’t the one shooting them. This happens in multiple ways:

1. He sprints the floor in transition, claps his hands for the ball, drags two defenders into the paint with him, and a guy in the corner the defense forgot existed catches a pass and drains a 3.

pic.twitter.com/u0n5AUzNZw

— KevinOVideo (@NBAVIDE0S) April 13, 2026

2. He spaces out on the perimeter as a 37.4% shooter on catch-and-shoot 3s, and pulls a big away from the paint, opening the runway for San Antonio’s three downhill-attacking point guards — De’Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, or Stephon Castle — to get into the teeth of the defense then find an open shooter.

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— KevinOVideo (@NBAVIDE0S) April 13, 2026

3. Cutting around the basket. Opponents will often put a smaller player on Wembanyama. When this happens, he will establish post positioning or make himself a threat for a lob, forcing a help defender to rotate over.

pic.twitter.com/aEExrvyTJE

— KevinOVideo (@NBAVIDE0S) April 13, 2026

4. Designed half-court sets. The Spurs run a set where a wing motions toward the ball-handler, while Wemby launches from the wing or elbow toward the paint. The play could lead to a lob at the rim, but more often than not it forces a rotation, giving enough space for a pass to the opposite corner for a 3-pointer.

pic.twitter.com/0fGy2nNVGo

— KevinOVideo (@NBAVIDE0S) April 13, 2026

5. Setting an on-ball screen and rolling. When Wemby sets a screen and rolls to the rim, the guy on the weak side who’s guarding the corner 3 is compelled to help on Victor. His entire basketball instinct is screaming at him to rotate to slow down the tall guy. So he rotates. And then a Spurs perimeter player is standing alone in the corner, completely unguarded, catching a simple kick-out pass, and draining a 3, and getting credited with the basket, and getting credited with being the one who “made the play,” and Wemby goes back down the court with nothing to show for on the stats sheet.

pic.twitter.com/YXiz9dWaP8

— KevinOVideo (@NBAVIDE0S) April 13, 2026

When Wembanyama is off the court, the Spurs take 13.1% of their shots from the corner 3. That’d rank fourth in the league, so it’s still a high amount. However, when Wemby is on the court and it’s not him taking the shot, the Spurs take 21.2% of their shots from the corners. No other player in the league warps corner-3 frequency anywhere close to that. The next-closest is Jalen Brunson at 4.3%, and Brunson is a small guard who does it by monopolizing the ball. Wemby does it without touching it.

With Wemby on the floor, the Spurs also generate far more layups for their point guard trio — a trio I spent all summer convinced wasn’t an ideal fit. Fox, Castle, and Harper are three downhill guards and none of them is a proven knockdown shooter. On paper the spacing math didn’t work. Mitch Johnson solved it by playing only one or two of them together at once. And Wemby handled the rest. Harper’s at-rim frequency jumps 15.5% with Wemby on the floor. Castle, 14.2%. Fox, 9.7%.

More shots at the rim is one piece. More shots going in at a higher rate is the other. Not just the guards. Every rotation player sees a jump. Devin Vassell’s true shooting climbs from 55.2% to 60.8%. Harrison Barnes from 58% to 64.7%. Julian Champagnie from 58.4% to 63.3%. Fox is the exception — his true shooting stays the same. Some of this increase is thanks to transition offense off stops. Most of it is Wemby’s gravity in the half-court.

Gravity comes in different flavors. The first is simple spacing: his shooting pulls a big out of the paint and the guards drive into an empty lane. The more interesting one is what happens when he rolls. When off-ball defenders decide to stay home on shooters, the big man still needs to prevent a lob to Wemby, which means Fox, Castle, and Harper can go one-on-one with a full head of steam and walk into layups.

Of the nearly 400 handler/screener duos to log at least 100 pick-and-rolls this season, Fox/Wemby, Castle/Wemby, and Harper/Wemby all rank in the 88th percentile or better in scoring efficiency.

None of this shows up on his line. Wemby finishes those possessions with zero points and zero assists and jogs back down the floor, and the box score insists nothing happened. Something happened.

The verdict

SGA carries his team in the most visible way the sport allows. The ball is in his hands. The points are on his line. The clutch buckets go viral before he’s back in the locker room. Wemby carries his in ways that sometimes don’t show up anywhere. The sprints into the paint. The gravity of his shooting. The threat of his verticality. That’s the whole debate.

Wemby just bent the entire geometry of an NBA floor in both directions. When he’s defending the paint, opponents avoid him. When he’s lurking in the paint on offense, opponents flock to him. Wembanyama was by far the league’s best defender, put up overwhelming raw offensive numbers on top of that, and somehow his most valuable contributions are still the ones the box score refuses to acknowledge. In a race this close, that’s the difference.

That is why I’m voting for Victor Wembanyama to win the 2026 NBA MVP.

I spent most of this season assuming that I wouldn’t be. The SGA case is so clean. Then I looked closer and realized a clean case isn't the same as an easy vote.

The honest objection to this vote is that SGA’s offense is the more stable measurement and Wemby’s is a mosaic: gravity stats, on both offense and defense, that you have to trust at once. But when so many independent numbers, pulled from different parts of the floor, all point in the same direction, and all confirm what your eyes can see simply watching games, saying “the data is noisy” stops being skepticism and starts being a reason not to look. The corner 3 swing. The at-rim increase for three different guards. The efficiency jump for every single role player. The points per play on doubles. The offensive rating differential. Underneath all that, he still averaged 25 points and was the best defender in basketball by a mile. I opened this column with a question: How much do you trust what the box score won’t tell you? Turns out the answer is enough.

Here’s the thing I can’t shake: Wembanyama is only 22. In Year 3. We could be looking back on this season in 2030 and saying: Remember when he was already in the MVP race, back when the Spurs won 60 games for the first time, and it turned out he was only still just figuring it out?

There is no useful historical comp for Wemby. I compared Wemby to Gen-Z Kareem Abdul-Jabbar before the draft, but Kareem was 22 as a rookie. Kareem, LeBron, and Giannis didn't win their first MVPs until they were 24. Victor would become the youngest MVP ever. And even if he falls short this time, it won’t be his last MVP race. It’ll be his first.

What does Year 5 look like? Year 8? When his handle tightens another notch? When his frame is even stronger? When Castle and Harper are grizzled veterans? When he picks up the small dirty defensive tricks that young players, even brilliant ones, simply haven't learned yet?

At some point — maybe this postseason, maybe next year — Wemby is going to do something and every person watching is going to have the same thought at the same instant. The way we all did watching Steph pull up from the logo in OKC in 2016. The way we all did watching LeBron in Game 6 against Boston in 2012. The way we all did watching Jordan switch hands in midair against the Lakers in 1991. 

The thought is always the same. “Oh. He's the guy now.”

The difference with Wemby is he already knows. He’s been having that conversation with himself for years. The rest of us are just starting to catch up.

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