The NBA play-in tournament is off to a stunning start, with the Charlotte Hornets winning an overtime thriller against the Miami Heat to keep their season alive, and the Trail Blazers advancing to the playoffs with an upset win over the Phoenix Suns.
Play-in action continues Wednesday with two more high-stakes games.
In the East, the No. 7 seed Philadelphia 76ers will host the No. 8 seed Orlando Magic, with the winner earning the No. 7 seed in the playoffs and a meeting with the Boston Celtics in the first round. The loser will play the Hornets on Friday to determine who will get the last playoff spot and a first-round series with the Detroit Pistons.
In the West, the No. 9 seed LA Clippers will host the No. 10 seed Golden State Warriors in an elimination game, with either Kawhi Leonard or Stephen Curry going home early. The winner will get to a Friday matchup with the Suns with the No. 8 seed on the line.
Who will advance Wednesday? Our writers break down the matchups and make their picks.
What's your take on Magic-Sixers?
Dan Devine: The Magic have to get a handle on Tyrese Maxey. With Joel Embiid sidelined following an appendectomy, all eyes will be on the All-NBA point guard to serve as Philadelphia’s primary source of shot creation, both for himself and for his teammates. If the just-returned Anthony Black (who saw the bulk of the Maxey assignment in the teams’ threeregular-seasonmatchups) and Jalen Suggs can make life tough on Maxey, it’d go a long way toward defanging a Philly attack that has scored at a bottom-10 level in minutes without the big fella this season. To wit: In the 76ers’ twowins over Orlando, Maxey scored a combined 72 points; when he had a comparatively quiet 20 against Orlando during NBA Cup group play in November, the result was a 41-point Magic blowout.
Nekias Duncan: The Magic have to impose their will. While I’m truly excited to watch a win-and-in game, VJ Edgecombe’s postseason debut, and the smooth-operating of Paul George (21-6-3 on 53/42/74 splits since his return), I can’t help but start with the Magic here. This has been such a topsy-turvy season for a group that I had top-three hopes for. But catch them on the right night, and you see the potential: skilled size across the board headlined by Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, backed by Jalen Suggs-led physical defense that can flatten you with switches.
With Embiid unavailable, Banchero and Wagner (and the woefully underrated Wendell Carter Jr., to a lesser extent) should own the paint in this one-off. With Suggs and Black healthy, Maxey shouldn’t have too much fun. But there have been so many could-have, should-have performances from the Magic this season that it’s hard to believe.
Dan Titus: Can the 76ers put the Magic out of their misery? Both teams come in with identical records, but the vibes are off in Orlando. They couldn't close out a shorthanded Celtics squad on Sunday. Banchero looks disengaged and the decision to limit Desmond Bane to 17 minutes down the stretch to manage his health raises more questions than answers. Jamahl Mosley’s playing on borrowed time.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia is without Embiid — but that's nothing new. Their defensive rating is similar with and without Embiid, but I expect they’ll push the pace to make up for their disadvantage on the interior. The key to the Sixers winning this game is leaning on their backcourt of Maxey and Edgecombe. Yes, the Magic are the healthier team. However, I sense there’ll be more urgency from the Sixers in front of their home crowd than from a Magic team pressing to get this season over with.
What's your take on Warriors-Clippers?
Duncan: I’m fascinated by the “who gets two” of it all. Stephen Curry and Kawhi Leonard aren’t just two of the best players in the NBA; they double as two of the most demoralizing. Curry makes the nonsensical look routine; it’s why every botched switch or screen navigation snag feels like the apocalypse. There’s a level of I-don’t-care with Kawhi’s shotmaking that even the most stoic of defenders eventually crack under when he’s on a heater.
In an ideal world, Curry is held in check by the combination of Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr. In an ideal world, Kawhi is kept in a box by Draymond Green, or the feisty efforts of a Gui Santos or the smaller-but-stifling Gary Payton II allow the Warriors to stay home. This isn’t an ideal world.
There are plenty of subplots in this game, but I’m most enthralled by Curry and Kawhi. How often will those two see a second defender? How often will those instances be intentional — they both were blitzed on over 15% of their pick-and-rolls this year, per Second Spectrum — and when will we see it? Their ability to draw and beat two will swing this game.
Titus: Clippers or bust. The 10-seeds don’t have much success moving on to the playoffs. The Warriors are literally limping into this matchup against a team that’s playing on another level. Leonard’s been playing at an All-NBA level while the rest of the Clippers have found their stride since the deadline. Golden State, on the other hand, has gone 10-21 since Feb. 5, primarily because they’re running out of healthy bodies.
Porziņģis and Curry will have minutes restrictions. Sure, the Dubs always have a glimmer of hope with Curry and some positive 3-point variance, but the Clippers are flat-out the better team. They have too many offensive weapons for the Dubs to handle. And their versatility on defense can neutralize the Warriors' supporting cast. The Warriors will need something historic from Curry to stay alive. However, it’s unlikely to happen Wednesday night.
Devine: I’m interested in the “larger sample vs. one-night elimination game” component of this. Since dropping to 6-21 on Dec. 18, the Clippers have the West’s third-best recordandnet rating, and have been especially dominant with Leonard on the floor, blitzing opponents by nearly 13 points per 100 possessions in his minutes in that span. The Warriors, meanwhile, have spent most of the past three months scuffling, due largely to the injuries that ended the season of Jimmy Butler — who was Steve Kerr’s No. 1 defensive option on Kawhi during the teams’ firsttwo meetings — and cost Stephen Curry two months.
But now, the Warriors have Curry and trade-deadline acquisition Porziņģis both back in the lineup; that combo’s plus-18 in its first 51 minutes together. They have Draymond to throw at Kawhi, and Payton and De’Anthony Melton to throw at Darius Garland, to try to disrupt an offense that’s been cooking. Brandin Podziemski’s been shooting 40% from 3-point land for a month and a half; Santos popped for 25 or more three times in Golden State’s final seven games. Kerr’s got some ingredients to work with. The Clippers have objectively been the better team for months. But can the Warriors, with Steph now back, be better for 48 minutes?
Predictions: Who's advancing?
Titus: Sixers and Clippers. I have Philly over a Magic team that can’t fire Mosley fast enough. The Clippers move on as the Warriors brace for an important offseason where Kerr needs a new deal and Curry needs reinforcements.
Devine: Sixers and Clippers. I’ll take Philly, even without Embiid, because Orlando has not demonstrated that it deserves our trust, and the Clippers, because I don’t think the Warriors are going to have enough answers for Kawhi.
Duncan: Magic and Clippers. The Magic are healthier in key places, and the Clippers have been a better team for longer stretches this year while also having home-court advantage. Magic malaise and a Curry Classic could make me look foolish, but it wouldn’t be the first time.
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