The Tampa Bay Rays (33-15) have surged to a stunning start. So far, they’re first in the American League, and a big part of that is their pitching. Currently, they’re ranked no. 6 in earned run average (3.57) and no. 4 in walks+hits through innings pitched. The starting pitching has been solid, but it’s not Drew Rasmussen or Shane McClanahan leading the team in ERA.

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35-year-old Nick Martinez has a 1.51 ERA so far. It’s not only the best among the Rays, but also the second-best among qualified pitchers in the MLB, behind Cam Schlitter of the New York Yankees. He has a career 4.01 ERA, and he’s never had a 3.10 ERA in any season before this one. It’s one of the biggest surprise developments of the MLB.

Improbably Journey to Tampa

Martinez is a journeyman starting pitcher. He started his career in Arlington, with the Rangers drafting him in the 18th round of the 2011 MLB draft. He mucked and grinded for three years to make the majors, making his debut on April 5, 2014.

If that wasn’t impressive enough for an 18th-round pick, he became a starter every fifth day for the Rangers. He started more than 15 games in three of four seasons between 2014 and 2017.

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However, he was a below-average starter. He went 17-30 with a 4.77 ERA, and after the 2017 season, the Rangers non-tendered him. He received little attention from MLB teams in the 2018 season.

Martinez signed with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters out of Nippon Professional Baseball. He was alright, with a 3.51 ERA in 2018 and a 4.62 ERA in 2019. However, when the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks signed him in 2021, he broke out, with a 1.64 ERA through 140 2/3 innings.

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That stellar season gave him another MLB chance. The San Diego Padres signed him to a one-year contract to be a reliever. The investment worked out; Martinez earned a 3.47 ERA through 106.1 innings in 2022. The Padres re-signed him for a three-year contract in 2022. Somehow, he outdid himself, with a 3.43 ERA and 6-4 record through 110.1 innings (63 starts) in 2023.

Martinez declined a player option, ending his contract early, and he earned a great payday from the Cincinnati Reds. They signed him to a two-year, $26 million contract in the 2023 offseason. Unfortunately, he ran into a wall. He had a 3.10 ERA in 2024 when he was a reliever, but when the Reds tried to transition to a starter again, he faltered. He had a below-average 4.45 ERA through 165.2 innings.

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Martinez once again didn’t receive much interest in the 2025 offseason, paving the way for the Tampa Bay Rays to nab him. They signed him to a one-year, $13 million contract in Feb. 2026, and while it went largely unnoticed, it’s could be the best free agent investment from this past season.

Choose Your Weapon

All analytics are provided by Baseball Savant.

At his best, Martinez is a very balanced pitcher. Looking at the Baseball Savant statistics, he’s in the 99th percentile in fastball (four-seam, sinker, cutter) run-value and offspeed (changeup) run-value. Unfortunately, he’s just in the eighth percentile in breaking ball (slider) run-value, but he only throws his slider 4% of the time anyway.

There are some indicators in advanced statistics that work well in his favor. He’s causing opponents to top the ball more, boasting a 32.1% top percentage versus 27.9% last season. His sinker (92.5MPH) and changeup (78.8MPH) have been his most valuable pitches, with a six-run value.

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His changeup, which he has relied on a lot more this season, has induced a 25.4% strikeout percentage (K%) and a .121 batting average. The sinker is used a lot more often, too, as he throws it 30.2% of the time vs. 17.1% of the time in 2025. It induces just a .230 batting average.

Under The Hood

In terms of advanced analytics outside of repertoire, Martinez hasn’t really changed. He’s always been one of the best pitchers at avoiding walks, and his 5.1% walk percentage is in the top 7% of qualified MLB pitchers.

Unfortunately, all the non-elite parts of his game are relatively the same. His K% is around 16.2% this season, which continues a steady decline from his 23.0% K% in 2023. Expected batting average (xBA) predicts him allowing a .257 average, and as a result, his expected ERA (xERA) is at 3.88.

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However, he’s defying the statistics thanks to his sinker and changeup, making a great 1-2 punch. His sinker is placed strategically around the zone, while his changeup is put down and away to strike out batters or cause weak contact.

That is why you see Martinez, at 35, rolling eight innings of one-run ball on April 22 against the Cincinnati Reds. That’s why you see him pitching seven shutout innings in a 1-0 win against the Cleveland Guardians. His pitch mix has resulted in fewer runs and more poultry contact. Hopefully, he can continue to defy analytics and potentially make his first All-Star appearance.