Former Duke teammates Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel have headlined the 2025-26 NBA Rookie of the Year race for much of the season. In recent weeks, however, the perceived gap between the two has appeared to widen, with Flagg averaging 27.3 points per game to open February and strengthening his case as the class’s best player. Yet, scoring averages alone rarely capture a player’s true impact. Using FTN’s new NBA StatsHub, let’s take a closer look at how this year’s rookie class is actually impacting games – separating shot volume and counting stats from measurable value added.

The Top Rookies of 2025-2026

Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks

FGOE: +0.7%PTOE: +0.0Team Record: 19-35 Cooper Flagg, this past summer’s No. 1 overall pick, is priced at -750 betting odds to win NBA Rookie of the Year coming out of the All-Star break. However, a closer look at NBA StatsHub metrics makes it difficult to argue that he has been the league’s most impactful rookie to date. Flagg’s +0.7% Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation ranks 122nd out of 224 players averaging at least 20 minutes per game this season. He also ranks 139th in Points Over Expectation, suggesting that his scoring production has been more volume-driven than efficiency-driven. The on/off data supports that conclusion. Dallas has been 3.1 points better per 100 possessions with Flagg off the floor this year. While he has provided a modest offensive boost (+1.9 offensive rating), he ranks last on the team in defensive rating among players with at least 200 minutes played. It’s not difficult to see Flagg’s long-term upside, but his overall impact on a 19-35 Dallas team has been less impressive than his surface-level stats indicate.

Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets

FGOE: +6.1%PTOE: +2.2Team Record: 26-29

A month ago, we examined the league’s most underrated scorers using Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation and came away wondering if Kon Knueppel could be the NBA’s next superstar. Since then, his production has only strengthened that case. Over the past month, he’s averaged 18.4 points per game while shooting 47.1% from the floor, including 41.7% from 3-point territory. He’s also converted 92.5% of his free throw attempts during that stretch – ranking ninth in the NBA among players with at least seven games played and 3.0 free throw attempts per game. Charlotte’s team success further validates Knueppel’s positive impact. Charlotte finished 19-63 last season, posting the second-worst record in the Eastern Conference and the fourth-worst point differential in the league. This year, the Hornets have already surpassed that win total and remain firmly entrenched in the playoff conversation with fewer than 30 games remaining. Like many rookies, Knueppel has experienced defensive growing pains. However, his +6.1% FGOE and positive Points Over Expectation suggest that his scoring impact is not simply the product of opportunity. His ability to convert difficult shots efficiently has been a central factor in Charlotte outperforming their preseason expectations.

VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers

FGOE: -3.5%PTOE: -0.8Team Record: 30-24 VJ Edgecombe pulled into the All-Star break averaging the third-most points per game (14.9) and fourth-most assists per game (4.1) in this year’s rookie class. However, his efficiency looks more like what we would expect from a traditional rookie 42.3% shooting overall and 35.2% from 3-point territory. His relative offensive inefficiency is captured in NBA StatsHub’s advanced metrics, too, with his -3.5% Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation and -0.8 Points Over Expectation both lagging significantly behind Flagg and Knueppel. Similar to other players in their first year, Edgecombe has struggled defensively – ranking fourth worst on the 76ers in defensive rating among players to log at least 500 minutes this season. Nevertheless, the upside for Edgecombe is undeniable. He was named Rising Stars MVP after a dominant performance at NBA All-Star Weekend and will look to parlay that into a strong second-half as he looks to help Philadelphia improve their playoff position during the home stretch of the regular season.

The Takeaway

The gap between perception and production is where FTN’s NBA StatsHub proves most valuable. For years, rookie evaluation leaned heavily on scoring averages and traditional box score metrics. Now, with tools like Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation and Points Over Expectation, we can better distinguish between volume-driven production and true value creation. This year’s rookie class is filled with impact players. But when isolating sustainable shot-making and measurable offensive value, Kon Knueppel stands out — even if the betting markets don’t agree.