The post FED Researchers Say Kalshi Data Could Improve Rate Expectation Tracking appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News

Researchers linked to the Federal Reserve say prediction market data from Kalshi could help policymakers better measure economic expectations. In their paper, “Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets,” they argue that managing expectations is central to monetary policy, but traditional tools such as surveys and financial derivatives have clear limits.

Surveys are often slow and reflect past sentiment. Market-based indicators like bond yields or futures contracts can be complex and are not always tied directly to specific policy decisions. The researchers say Kalshi provides a more direct and real-time view of how traders interpret economic developments.

How Kalshi Measures Expectations in Real Time

Kalshi allows users to trade contracts linked to macroeconomic outcomes, including inflation (CPI), payroll data, GDP growth, and Federal Open Market Committee rate decisions. Each contract reflects the probability of a specific event taking place.

Because these probabilities update throughout the trading day, Kalshi shows how expectations change when new information appears. When a Fed official speaks or fresh economic data is released, market pricing shifts immediately.

For example, the implied probability of a July rate cut rose to 25 percent after comments from Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman. It later declined following a stronger-than-expected employment report. This quick reaction shows how prediction markets adjust faster than many traditional measures.

The researchers suggest that this data could be used to build risk-neutral probability density models, which estimate possible interest rate outcomes and their likelihood for upcoming meetings.

Potential Impact on Crypto and Prediction Markets

Prediction markets have grown rapidly, with platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket surpassing 10 billion dollars in monthly trading volume. While Kalshi operates under US regulation and is not fully crypto-based, the broader sector overlaps with blockchain platforms.

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If the Federal Reserve studies or references prediction market data more closely, it could strengthen the sector’s standing and draw more institutional participation. That could improve confidence in prediction platforms and increase liquidity across regulated and crypto markets.

Greater recognition may also ease regulatory uncertainty, which affects overall crypto market sentiment.

Will the Crypto Market Recover

The research paper does not indicate any immediate policy shift. Federal Reserve papers are meant to encourage discussion, not set policy. However, the view that prediction markets provide useful real-time insight suggests policymakers are exploring more market-based data.

If prediction markets play a larger role, clarity around interest rate expectations could improve. Clearer expectations often help reduce volatility, which may support both traditional financial markets and crypto assets.

Over time, closer use of market signals in policy discussions could help stabilize recoveries after economic shocks. For crypto markets, stronger institutional interest and broader acceptance remain important, and this development could support that trend.

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The post Fed Minutes News: Powell, Waller Signal Delay in Rate Cuts appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News

The latest Fed minutes news released on February 18, 2026, show that Federal Reserve officials remain cautious about cutting interest rates, signaling that a rate cut in March is unlikely.

While some members support future rate cuts if inflation falls further, others prefer to keep rates unchanged for longer and closely watch economic conditions.

Fed Minutes News: No Rate Cut In March

According to the Fed meeting minutes, officials decided to keep interest rates unchanged in the 3.50% to 3.75% range after several cuts in late 2025. All 19 governors and regional presidents attended the meeting, but only 12 had voting rights.

Out of them, the FOMC voted 10–2 in favor of holding rates steady, showing that most members prefer to pause and watch economic conditions instead of rushing into more rate cuts. 

FED MINUTES: ALMOST ALL PARTICIPANTS SUPPORTED JANUARY RATE PAUSE

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 18, 2026

Based on current Fed guidance and market expectations, analysts now believe there will likely be no rate cut in March. 

The CME FedWatch Tool also shows a 94% probability that rates will remain unchanged.

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Fed Officials Remain Divided on Rate Cut Timeline

Even though the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged, officials are still divided about the next move. Some policymakers, including Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller, disagreed in favor of a 25-basis-point rate cut. 

Christopher Waller said the central bank should avoid cutting rates too early, as inflation could rise again if financial conditions loosen too quickly

At the same time, the newly appointed next Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, has shown support for lower rates, while other officials remain cautious and have not ruled out possible rate hikes if inflation stays high. 

Based on current Fed guidance, most analysts believe rate cuts are more likely in mid-2026 rather than March. As the current Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term is going to end this year in May.

Crypto Market Reaction: Bitcoin and Altcoins Face Pressure

The Fed minutes news had an immediate impact on crypto markets. However, Bitcoin price dropped 1% to now trading around $67,150. Similarly, other altcoins, including XRP, SOL, and Doge, have seen a slight price drop to around 5% today.  

Eventually, higher interest rates reduce liquidity, which often slows demand for risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.

When the Fed delays rate cuts, investors tend to move capital into safer assets like bonds, reducing demand for Bitcoin and altcoins.

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