Three MLB teams that will be surprisingly bad in 2026

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19 February 2026 at 17:14

This is the time for optimism. The 2026 baseball season is upon us, so let’s have some good thoughts. If only it were that easy, though. By the time we hit the All-Star break, and then certainly by the end of the season, there are bound to be some disappointed teams and fans. While we want to champion good vibes and optimism, it’s not realistic. So, at the risk of causing some outrage and disappointment, let’s take a look at three MLB teams that I’m expecting to be surprisingly bad this season.

3. Toronto Blue Jays

Nov 1, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Ernie Clement (22) celebrates with first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) after scoring against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the sixth inning during game seven of the 2025 MLB World Series at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Sousa-Imagn Images

Not only were the Toronto Blue Jays the team all of Canada was behind last season, but they essentially became North America’s team by the time we got to the World Series. It was a great story, but I just can’t be optimistic about heading into 2026.

They do get a full season of Dalton Varsho, and considering his struggles, it’s not a huge loss, but Anthony Santander is already done for the 2026 season. Will George Springer duplicate his 2025 season of full health and elite performance? How will Kazuma Okamoto’s game translate to major league baseball? Replacing Bo Bichette also won’t be easy for the Blue Jays.

From a pitching standpoint, the Blue Jays did add Dylan Cease and Cory Ponce, which was successful. Getting a full season of Trey Yesavage generates optimism, but after a deep postseason run, are we really confident in Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios? Shane Bieber is also experiencing arm issues, so cracks are beginning to show. And as exciting as Yesavage was, he’s still a rookie who will have an adjustment period in his first full major league season.

While generally a solid closer, it’s also fair to have some questions about Jeff Hoffman. Overall, the Blue Jays are still a good team, but thereare some concerns. That’s especially true on the offensive side of the ball. Playing in the American League East doesn’t help, and I can see them finishing anywhere between first and fifth.

2. San Diego Padres

Yes, the San Diego Padres still have Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Fernando Tatis. With those two superstars, will they ever truly be “bad”? But they aren’t going to win 90 games again like they did last season.

After Machado and Tatis, things get rough for San Diego. Signing players like Ty France and Miguel Andujar is not what we’ve become accustomed to for the Padres. Money is becoming an issue for San Diego, and its prospective capital is diminishing.

Getting Joe Musgrove back from injury will be a nice addition, but what can we expect from him after missing 2025? Michael King is also healthy after missing substantial time last year, but can we trust him?

Replacing Dylan Cease with German Marquez is not what we’ve gotten used to seeing out of the Padres in recent years. There are still some solid pieces, but their depth has taken a hit. The Padres are operating on a thinner margin than we were previously used to.

1. New York Yankees

Oct 8, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) reacts to striking during the eighth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays during game four of the ALDS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Yes, I’m going to go there. It’s not going to be a good season for the New York Yankees in 2026. The margin of error isn’t exactly high. After essentially deciding to run things back from last season, the Yankees have to hope that Aaron Judge, who is another year older, can physically hold up.

Health looms large here as the Yankees need Giancarlo Stanton’s elbows to keep him in the lineup as well. The return to full strength for Anthony Volpe could be a nice bonus for the Yankees. They also need Trent Grisham and Ben Rice to repeat their 2025 performances as the margin of error is thin.

Gerritt Cole returning to action, and not missing a beat, is a necessity for the Yankees’ pitching staff. The same can be said for Carlos Rodon after elbow issues last year. By all accounts, both are progressing as they should be, but New York has a lot invested in their health. Beyond that, they are relying on Cam Schittler, Will Warren, and Luis Gil. While they did trade for Ryan Weathers, who has never been able to stay healthy, the Yankees are asking a lot of their young pitchers with limited depth behind them.

Things could go from bad to worse quickly here for the Yankees if there are one or two issues or injuries. The tough AL East doesn’t help either.