On paper, it’s the kind of move that makes Detroit Lions fans sit up straight. A massive trade-up. A blue-chip edge rusher. A defense that suddenly looks terrifying. According to Mike Payton of A to Z Sports, there’s a blockbuster NFL Draft scenario that would reshape Detroit’s defense instantly.

But while the idea is fun, and the upside is obvious, the reality is much more complicated.

And frankly? There’s almost no chance this trade actually happens.

The trade proposal

Payton floated the idea of the Lions making a bold move with the Arizona Cardinals, jumping from No. 17 all the way to No. 3 in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Proposed trade:

• Lions receive:
  • No. 3 overall pick
• Cardinals receive:
  • No. 17 and No. 50 in the 2026 NFL Draft
  • A 2027 second-round pick
  • A 2027 third-round pick

With that No. 3 pick, Payton suggests Detroit would select David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech, a highly productive pass rusher coming off a monster 2025 season.

Payton’s reasoning is clear: add another elite edge across from Aidan Hutchinson and watch the Lions’ pass rush go nuclear.

Why the idea is appealing for Detroit

Let’s start with what Payton gets right—because there is real appeal here.

Bailey’s production jumps off the page:

• 81 pressures
• 15 sacks
• 40 run stops in 2025

Pairing a high-upside edge with Aidan Hutchinson would instantly give Detroit one of the most dangerous pass-rush tandems in the NFL. The Lions were already a top-five sack team in 2025. Add another premium edge, and you’re talking about a unit that could legitimately lead the league.

From a pure football standpoint, the logic tracks.

The problem: the trade value isn’t even close

Here’s where the proposal falls apart.

Moving from No. 17 to No. 3 is an enormous leap, one of the most expensive jumps in the entire draft. When you run this proposal through NFL Draft trade value charts, the package simply doesn’t come close to matching what Arizona would be giving up.

Historically, a move of this magnitude usually requires:

• A future first-round pick, not just seconds and thirds
• Or a proven veteran player included in the deal

The Cardinals would be passing on a franchise cornerstone at No. 3. They’re not doing that for a package headlined by a mid-first, a late second, and future Day 2 picks. That’s not how teams operate at the top of the draft, especially teams still building.

In short: Arizona would laugh this offer out of the room.

The David Bailey question

There’s another major issue that can’t be ignored.

David Bailey is productive. He’s intriguing. He’s explosive.

But he is far from a can’t-miss prospect.

Top-three picks are usually reserved for players viewed as near-lock franchise changers, players with rare traits, elite consistency, and minimal projection risk. Bailey, while exciting, still has evaluators split on his overall ceiling, technique refinement, and translation to the NFL level.

Trading a king’s ransom for a player who isn’t universally viewed as elite is exactly how teams set themselves back.

For the Lions, who have built their roster patiently and intelligently, that kind of gamble would feel wildly out of character.

Why this doesn’t align with Brad Holmes’ philosophy

Brad Holmes has been aggressive when it makes sense. He’s also been disciplined when it doesn’t.

This trade would require:

• Overpaying in draft capital
• Betting heavily on a non-consensus elite prospect
• Sacrificing future flexibility for a move that isn’t necessary

Detroit already has a strong defensive front. They don’t need to force a top-three pick to “fix” anything. Holmes has shown time and again that he prefers value, flexibility, and control over headline-grabbing moves.

That’s why this scenario, while fun to discuss, doesn’t feel realistic.

The bottom line

Mike Payton deserves credit for throwing out a bold, creative idea—and there’s no question that landing a talent like David Bailey would supercharge Detroit’s defense overnight.

But when you step back and look at:

• The massive jump from No. 17 to No. 3
• The mismatch in draft value
• The risk profile of the player involved

…it becomes clear that this trade lives firmly in “fun thought experiment” territory.

If the Lions are going to make a big swing, it’ll be one that makes sense on both the board and the balance sheet. This one? Not quite.

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