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AL West season preview: Can the Mariners win another division title? Will the Rangers or Astros get in their way?
To borrow a line from Bob Dylan, in the AL West, the times they are a-changin’. After winning four straight division titles and seven over eight seasons, the Astros regressed last summer and surrendered divisional supremacy to the Mariners. Seattle had long possessed the pitching staff to emerge from this group, and a magical season from Cal Raleigh keyed an improved lineup that finally gave the team the offense it needed. The Mariners’ magical run got them one win away from playing in the World Series for the first time in franchise history.
Looking ahead, this is still Seattle’s division to lose. The Astros retooled over the winter but didn’t necessarily improve. The Rangers took steps to repair a disappointing offense and will hope their surprisingly effective pitching staff can exceed expectations for a second straight year. The Angels are far off the pace, and while the Athletics are trending in the right direction, they still have a long way to go.
Read more: AL East division preview | AL Central division preview
Seattle Mariners
Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March 5): 88-74, 79.3% odds to make the playoffs, 61.5% odds to win the division
What happened last season? The Mariners plodded along, a few games over .500, for most of the season before a furious finish (17-8 in September) pushed them past the Astros to the top of the AL West. They rode their hot streak into the postseason, where they survived a memorable series from Tigers ace Tarik Skubal to squeak past Detroit in the ALDS. They followed that win with a thrilling ALCS against Toronto, and they were on the verge of reaching the World Series before George Springer sunk their hopes with a three-run homer. All told, this was the closest Seattle had ever come to going all the way.
The magical ride was keyed by Cal Raleigh, who had arguably the greatest season ever by a catcher, producing 60 homers, 125 RBI and 110 runs. The Big Dumper was well supported by franchise cornerstone Julio Rodriguez, who overcame his typical slow start to post a 30-30 season. Randy Arozarena also had a good year, and Josh Naylor gave the lineup a spark after arriving at the trade deadline. Seattle’s talented pitching staff was slightly underwhelming overall, but there were some outstanding individual performances, especially from starter Bryan Woo and closer Andres Muñoz.
What happened in the offseason? Typically one of the most aggressive and unpredictable franchises, the Mariners were purposeful but controlled over the winter. Their major move came early in free agency, when president Jerry Dipoto retained Naylor on a five-year contract. In December, Dipoto solidified the bullpen by trading catching prospect Harry Ford, who was blocked by the presence of Raleigh, to the Nationals for lefty Jose A. Ferrer. And in early February, a three-way trade brought in Brendan Donovan from St. Louis. He’s expected to play third base but is also an option at second.
Best-case scenario for 2026: The Mariners have enough talent to finally reach the World Series. Raleigh’s booming bat and solid defensive skills at a premium position make him as valuable as anyone in baseball. Rodriguez is already a star and could still take his game to another level. The rest of the lineup is just good enough to support their two centerpieces, and it could be even better if top prospect Colt Emerson soon arrives in the majors and Donovan continues to show elite contact skills. The pitching staff has enough talent to carry the club. Woo, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo and George Kirby can match the top four arms on any team, and Bryce Miller should bounce back from a disappointing 2025. Muñoz is a terrific closer, and the setup crew is deep and diverse.
Worst-case scenario: The pitching staff is so deep that the floor for Seattle is pretty high. If the club were to fall short of a postseason berth, it would be due to a lack of run production. Raleigh should be excellent again, but a repeat of his magical season seems virtually impossible. Also, the bottom four spots in Seattle’s lineup look nothing like that of a contender, and there could be too many holes for Dipoto to plug at the deadline if Emerson struggles as a rookie and no one emerges from the current cast of characters. It’s worth noting that even with Raleigh’s heroics, Seattle was a fringe postseason team when the calendar flipped to September last year.
Make-or-break player: Dominic Canzone. This lineup needs more length, and Canzone is the man who has the best chance to make that happen. Unable to log a .700 OPS over his initial two seasons, Canzone was terrific last year (.840 OPS), albeit over just 82 games. Most notably, the left-handed hitter was good enough against southpaws to remain in the lineup. If Canzone can provide protection behind the stars in the top five lineup spots and Emerson can emerge as a viable infield option, Dipoto can zero in on a couple of holes at the deadline and build a lineup that can go toe-to-toe with anyone in October.
Season prediction: With the Astros taking a small step backward, the Mariners clearly have the best roster in this division. Seattle shouldn’t need a September surge to put away the AL West competition this year, and the Mariners can produce a win total that gets them another bye through the wild-card round. If the rotation stays healthy, Seattle has as good a chance as any team to represent the American League in the World Series.
Read more: AL West offseason grades
Houston Astros
Projected record: 80-82, 33.7% odds to make the playoffs, 13.6% odds to win the division
What happened last season? A summer collapse snapped a streak of eight consecutive postseason appearances. The Astros led the AL West by six games at the beginning of July before posting a sub-.500 record in each of the final three months of the season. The team had no answers when the Mariners caught fire in September and lost the final AL wild-card spot on a tiebreaker with the Tigers. The Astros’ offense slipped from 11th in runs scored in 2024 to 21st last season. The pitching staff regressed as well, falling from 6th to 11th in ERA.
Still, there were some positives. Hunter Brown emerged as an ace, and Josh Hader was a terrific closer until a shoulder injury sidelined him in mid-August. Offensively, Jeremy Peña took a notable step forward. But the disappointments were substantial, especially from Yordan Alvarez, who was limited by injuries to 48 games and posted a .797 OPS that was more than 150 points lower than his career mark. Slugger Christian Walker was also a major letdown in his first season with the club.
What happened in the offseason? Although it’s hard to say this team improved, the front office tinkered with the roster by making a few transactions. The winter session started with a minor deal that sent Mauricio Dubon to the Braves for Nick Allen in a swap of players with similar skill sets. Mike Burrows was acquired from the Pirates to fill the rotation spot vacated by free agent Framber Valdez. Japanese pitcher Tatsuya Imai surprised many by choosing the Astros before his posting window expired. And Ryan Weiss was signed after two seasons in the KBO. He could grab a rotation spot or join the relief corps. In February, Houston jettisoned Jesus Sanchez in order to reclaim former Astros outfield prospect Joey Loperfido. The offseason ended on a sour note, as Hader announced that he was behind on his spring training program due to biceps inflammation.
Best-case scenario for 2026: After nearly a decade of dominance, the Astros could hang on for a couple more winning campaigns. Getting at least 140 games and a .900 OPS from Alvarez would transform the lineup. And a trio of 30-somethings — Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and Walker — can still be impact players. With those veterans and an improved Peña, the top half of Houston’s lineup can be better than that of most teams. The pitching staff will miss Valdez, but Imai could lessen the blow by having a solid rookie season. If Hader’s arm is sound, he and Bryan Abreu will form one of the best late-innings duos in the American League.
Worst-case scenario: Things could go south quickly in Houston if a few of the veterans hit the wall. Walker already reached that stage last year, and there’s no guarantee that he’ll rebound. The same fate could soon come for Altuve and Correa, who logged an OPS under .750 in two of the past three seasons. The veterans need to hang on for another year, as youngsters Cam Smith and Zach Cole are still complimentary players, rather than centerpieces. The five candidates to fill the four rotation spots behind Brown made a combined 40 major-league starts last year, which gives this group an extremely low floor. And the bullpen will be in serious trouble if Hader experiences more injury issues. Dynasties sometimes fall off quickly, and the Astros could spend the season in the mix with the Athletics and Angels, rather than the Mariners and Rangers.
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Make-or-break player: Tatsuya Imai.The Astros desperately need Imai to have a dazzling rookie season. The 27-year-old certainly has an impressive résumé, as he produced an ERA under 2.50 in each of the past four seasons. And the cat-and-mouse game between batters and pitchers can sometimes favor a new hurler while hitters get used to his delivery and arsenal. Houston needs Imai to make use of every advantage, as he is the team’s most likely No. 2 starter. If Imai falters, the pitching-rich Mariners will lap the Astros in terms of rotation quality and depth.
Season prediction: The guess here is that the dynasty is over. The Astros had a terrific run, but they’re now going through the inevitable cycle that comes from annually trading away prospects for veterans. To surpass the Mariners or grab a wild-card spot in 2026, they’ll need several things to break their way. And even if they squeak in, their October stay will likely be brief. The lack of offseason spending was a clear sign that the front office is starting to go in a different direction, and a slow start to the season could see more veterans sent packing by the summer.
Texas Rangers
Projected record: 80-82, 34.5% odds to make the playoffs, 14.2% odds to win the division
What happened last season? The Rangers wasted a terrific season of pitching en route to finishing with a .500 record. The Texas rotation led the majors with a 3.47 ERA, thanks to outstanding seasons from Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi and solid campaigns from Jack Leiter and Patrick Corbin. And despite not having a full-time closer, the bullpen was effective. Unfortunately, the offense underachieved and finished 22nd in baseball in runs scored. Corey Seager missed 60 games, while Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia fared so poorly that they’re no longer on the roster. Joc Pederson and Jake Burger were massive disappointments in their first year with the team, and Evan Carter was limited by injuries to 63 games.
What happened in the offseason? The front office began the winter in controversial fashion when they non-tendered longtime Rangers Adolis Garcia and Jonah Heim. Both players were key contributors in the team’s 2023 trip to the World Series but had fallen off since then. A few weeks later, Danny Jansen was signed to replace Heim as Kyle Higashioka’s counterpart. One of baseball’s most intriguing offseason deals was a one-for-one trade of Marcus Semien for Brandon Nimmo. Semien is one of the most respected players in baseball, but this deal seems like a win for Texas. After all, Nimmo is three years younger than Semien and was the better hitter the past two seasons. In January, Texas made a major splash when it traded five prospects to the Nationals in exchange for left-hander MacKenzie Gore.
Best-case scenario for 2026: Although they’re underdogs, the Rangers have a path to the postseason. It starts with pitching, where deGrom needs to log another 30-start season, Eovaldi must maintain his step forward from last year, and Gore needs to rediscover the form that led to a 3.02 ERA in the first half of 2025. Leiter is still young enough to take a step forward, and Kumar Rocker hasn’t come close to reaching his ceiling. If everything breaks right, the Rangers could have an outstanding rotation. Offensively, the key will be for several 2025 disappointments to have bounce-back seasons. That list includes Pederson, Burger, Carter and Josh Jung. There’s also a chance that Wyatt Langford goes from good to great, and getting a healthy season from Seager would make a big difference. If most of those things happen, Texas will find itself in the race for the top spot in the AL West.
Worst-case scenario: In all likelihood, there’s too much uncertainty for this roster to break through. Due to age and injury history, deGrom and Eovaldi are major regression candidates. And the bullpen is unlikely to pull off another magic act in which they turn a group of no-name relievers into an effective group. The most likely scenario is for what was a league-leading pitching staff to fall back closer to the pack. It’s also wishful thinking to expect more than half of the lineup to fare better than last season. A more likely scenario is that a couple of hitters improve, which gives Texas a respectable lineup but nothing more than that.
Make-or-break player: Nathan Eovaldi. The Rangers lack rotation depth and will be in big trouble if either Eovaldi or deGrom spends time on the IL. Eovaldi is arguably the bigger injury risk of the two, given that he finished last season with a rotator cuff strain. There’s also uncertainty with Eovaldi in terms of his per-inning effectiveness. The right-hander was an effective starter for many years before taking his game to another level in 2025. While he’s unlikely to repeat his 1.73 ERA, achieving a mark in the low 3.00s will make him a terrific co-star alongside deGrom.
Season prediction: The Rangers seem set to fall a few games short of a postseason berth. Winning the AL West is unlikely, as the Mariners have a deeper roster, especially on the mound. And the wild-card spots will be hotly contested by the Astros and several AL East teams. Texas will likely stay in the postseason race until late September but ultimately fall short due to a lack of depth in the bullpen and lineup.
Athletics
Projected record: 79-83, 25.3% odds to make the playoffs, 9.1% odds to win the division
What happened last season? After a lengthy rebuild and an unceremonious departure from Oakland, things started to look up for the Athletics. The club posted its highest win total (76) since 2021, which was primarily the result of an offense that finished 12th in runs scored. And the A’s improved throughout the season, with a 41-34 record after July 1. Within the team success, there were some exciting individual performances. Nick Kurtz debuted in late April and instantly became one of baseball’s most feared sluggers en route to being named AL Rookie of the Year. His 1.002 OPS would’ve ranked third in baseball if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. Fellow rookie Jacob Wilson was just as dominant in the batting average department, as his .311 mark placed third among qualified hitters. There were also productive veterans, as Brent Rooker had another excellent season, Tyler Soderstrom showed notable improvement, and Shea Langeliers was one of baseball’s top hitters in the second half.
What happened in the offseason? As a team that is still rebuilding and has not yet moved into its permanent home, the Athletics were predictably quiet over the winter. They managed to swing one notable trade when they picked up Jeff McNeil from the Mets. McNeil will play second base and should be helped by the switch to a hitter-friendly home park. The rest of the roster mostly remained status quo. JJ Bleday was the most notable departure, as he was designated for assignment before joining the Reds.
Best-case scenario for 2026: Although reaching the postseason is a stretch, there’s a scenario in which this team slugs its way into September contention. The offense is still scratching the surface of its immense potential, especially with an offense-inducing home park on its side. Kurtz and Wilson should each appear in 25-30 more games than last year. Langeliers will be the second coming of Cal Raleigh if he can build on his second-half performance, and Lawrence Butler still has the breakout potential that he failed to deliver on last year. The team’s Achilles’ heel is the pitching staff, but getting 30 respectable starts from Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, Jacob Lopez and Luis Morales would give the offense a chance to win more games.
Worst-case scenario: While it’s a near-certainty that the 2026 Athletics will score runs, a pitching staff that finished 27th in ERA last year will likely be their undoing. Severino has been vocal about the fact that he isn’t happy with his current situation, and Lopez and Springs are the only members of the rotation who had more than a few effective starts last year. Even avid baseball fans would be hard-pressed to name anyone in the A’s bullpen, which makes sense given the lack of track record for most members. While the organization has a few pitching prospects who will debut this year, none has the skill set to make an impact right away. Aside from blind optimism, there’s no reason to expect significant improvement from this group.
Make-or-break player: Jacob Lopez. For the Athletics to reach the next level, someone needs to emerge as a true ace in the rotation. While there are no obvious candidates on the roster, Lopez has the best shot. The left-hander has significant swing-and-miss skills (11.0 K/9 rate in 2025) and in seven of his 17 starts last year, Lopez threw at least six innings while giving up two or fewer earned runs. He can be prone to homers, and his control skills fluctuated wildly from one start to the next last year. But the potential is there, with consistency being the key next step.
Season prediction: The Athletics are going to be the most exciting non-contender in baseball in 2026. Their offense will crack the top 10 in runs scored, making the team a regular headline-grabber. But the pitching staff will be their undoing, as the club probably isn’t ready to climb much higher than 25th in runs allowed. In a best-case scenario, the Athletics rise to third in the AL West and give their front office reasons to invest in pitching staff additions next winter.
Los Angeles Angels
Projected record: 73-89, 5.3% odds to make the playoffs, 1.6% odds to win the division
What happened last season? The Angels endured another disappointing season, finishing last in the AL West for a second straight year and running their streak of losing records to 10 campaigns. A poor start (9-16 in April) and finish (8-18 in September) doomed their season, but they were only two games under .500 when they took the field on July 30. The offense flashed plenty of power, finishing fourth in the majors in homers, as Jo Adell and Taylor Ward hit more than 35 each and Mike Trout and Zach Neto each went deep 26 times. But any offensive success was more than offset by a pitching staff that ranked 28th in ERA. Injuries were not the issue, as five pitchers made at least 23 starts, but none logged an ERA under 3.99 or a WHIP below 1.28. Last winter, the front office made moves designed to produce a winning team, which made it even more embarrassing for the Angels to finish behind the rebuilding A’s for a second straight year.
What happened in the offseason? As per usual, the Angels made several offseason moves but might not have improved their roster. They started with a significant trade, shipping Ward to Baltimore for starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez, who missed all of 2025 due to an elbow injury. It was a risky move to get a discounted pitcher who was once expected to be an ace and is still just 26 years old. Their second trade was a smaller one, acquiring Vaughn Grissom from the Red Sox for outfielder Isaiah Jackson. Like Rodriguez, Grissom was once expected to be an impact player; he could become the Angels’ starting second baseman. In January, the Angels replaced Ward by acquiring Josh Lowe from the Rays. Lowe flashed an exciting skill set when he hit .292 with 20 homers and 32 steals in 2023, but he experienced a steep decline while dealing with injuries the past two years. The Angels’ only notable free-agent signings were veteran reliever Kirby Yates, who was one of baseball’s best closers two years ago before struggling with injuries and ineffectiveness in his lone season with the Dodgers, and Yoan Moncada, who posted a solid .783 OPS in 84 games with the Angels last year.
Best-case scenario for 2026: You really have to squint to find a path to the postseason, but here goes nothing. The lineup could be better than the one that ranked 25th in runs scored last year, if Lowe effectively replaces Ward and Grissom hits for average. After all, Adell and Neto are on the upswing, and Trout is a generational talent who could have some kind of late-career resurgence. Catcher Logan O’Hoppe is also much better than he showed when he logged a .629 OPS last season. For the pitching staff to make significant progress, Rodriguez and Yates will have to pitch as well as they did in 2024. They’ll also get Robert Stephenson back from injury, and he could combine with Yates and Drew Pomeranz to form an effective late-inning trio.
Worst-case scenario: This could be the year that the rebuilding Athletics pull away from the Angels. Unless Lowe turns around a two-year slump, the lineup will really miss Ward. As things stand, the bottom-four hitters in the regular lineup either posted an OPS below .700 last season or didn’t appear in the majors at all. And if the gamble on Rodriguez doesn’t pay off, the Angels’ pitching staff will be much worse than the lineup. There’s no one to eat innings behind Yusei Kikuchi and Jose Soriano, who are subpar staff leaders. And the bullpen is depending on Yates in his age-39 season, Pomeranz in his age-37 campaign and Stephenson, who threw 10 innings last year. The Angels could post the worst ERA in the American League.
Make-or-break player: Grayson Rodriguez. It would be hard to give this title to anyone other than the 26-year-old, who was tabbed one of baseball’s best prospects in 2022. He fared well in his initial two seasons with the Orioles and was ascending toward ace status when he logged a 3.59 FIP and a 10.0 K/9 rate in his 2024 sophomore campaign. Then injuries caused him to miss all of 2025. If Rodriguez is healthy, the Angels will finally have a leader for their staff. But it’s an ominous sign that a Baltimore team that was looking for starting pitching this offseason chose to trade away one of the most talented arms on the roster. Make no mistake: The acquisition of Rodriguez was a huge gamble for an Angels organization that lacked the prospect capital to trade for a skilled, healthy starter.
Season prediction: In 2026, the Angels will finally succumb to the need for a full rebuild. They have tried to put band-aids on their problems for several years, all while wasting Trout’s prime years and watching his body slowly break down. This will be the year they finally give up and trade multiple veterans for younger players. There are some pieces in place for the future; Neto, Adell, Schanuel and Rodriguez are all under 27 and have considerable skills. The Angels will get off to a slow start, and if they’re smart, they’ll follow the lead of the 2025 Twins and trade away everything that isn’t nailed to the floor at the deadline, which will finally start them on the road toward sustainable success. The Angels haven’t reached the postseason since 2014, which makes it obvious that their current course isn’t working.
