The NFL schedule changes every year. Your results, and those of others, swing it from one season to the next. But there is a big chunk of every season that stays the same.

Divisional games.

The Bengals might face the Patriots one season, the Titans the next, the Chargers the year after that, but we know for a fact that they’ll face the Ravens, Steelers and Browns twice each season. That’s six games, 35% of the schedule, that is predictable.

That doesn’t have to mean much, but at the least, you can use teams’ divisional games as the control to the rest of the schedule’s variable. If a team is in a division with three putrid defenses, and its players thrive in those games but struggle out of the division, well, that tells us something, but it also means good news for that team’s players the next year, because they will still play those teams. The inverse is also true if a team’s divisionmates are all defensive stalwarts.

Of course, this is small samples we’re dealing with here. In a 17-game season, you face divisional opponents six times and non-divisional opponents 11. Miss a game here and there, and the sample size is even smaller. So just doing well or poorly against division foes isn’t enough to draw a conclusion. But it’s a heck of a place to start, especially as we’re progressing through free agency and seeing where most everyone will be playing next season.

That’s what I’m doing yesterday and today. Below, I’m looking at the fantasy players most hurt by their division in 2025, and what (if anything) that means for 2026. Tuesday, I did the opposite — players most helped by their division.

(All scoring is PPR, and players needed at least four intradivisonal games to be considered.)

Players Most Hurt By Their Division in 2025

Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Outside the division: 10.1 PPR points per game Inside the division: 3.8 Difference: -62.4% By any definition, Worthy was a big disappointment in his second season. He went from 742 scrimmage yards as a rookie to 619. He went from 9 touchdowns to 1 (!). He was even worse in divisional games, though to be fair one came when he got hurt against the Chargers in Week 1 and another came with Patrick Mahomes hurt in Week 17, with no receptions in either game. Still, in between, he had 3-35 on 4 targets against the Raiders, 3-25 on 5 targets against the Broncos and 2-35 on 4 targets against the Chargers. My takeaway here isn’t “You want Worthy outside the division and avoid him inside it,” though — it’s “Eh, maybe we just don’t bother with Worthy at all.”

Tyler Allgeier, RB, Arizona Cardinals (then Falcons)

Outside the division: 9.0 Inside the division: 4.0 Difference: -55.7%

The impact of Allgeier on Bijan Robinson’s fantasy upside has been a topic since Robinson entered the league. Allgeier is good, but Robinson is so obviously better than any time Allgeier got a significant number of touches there was gnashing of teeth and rending of garments. The thing is, though, that it’s pretty clear that the Falcons realized the gap as well — per the FTN Splits Tool, they gave Allgeier 9.8 carries per game outside the division but, when the games matter that much more, 5.8 carries per game inside the division. Basically, they used their “good enough” back in the secondary games, but when the rubber met the road, they focused on the big guy. What does that mean for 2026? Well, with Allgeier heading to Arizona and a new group in charge in Atlanta, it’s hard to say, but in a vacuum it seems like Bijan Robinson is always a top-five running back, but he’s a top-one running back in NFC South games.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions

Outside the division: 26.2 Inside the division: 13.1 Difference: -50.0% With the AFC North taking a big step back last year, the knockdown, dragout-iest division last year was pretty clearly its NFC counterpart, with all four teams finishing with winning records. And when you have that rough a go against the teams you face the most, it’s reflected in your fantasy scoring. Gibbs averaged 26.2 points per game outside the NFC North. That was nearly two points per game better than Christian McCaffrey last year, basically record-setting sort of numbers. He had games of 55.4, 38.2, 37.0, 36.8 and 26.9 in that sample. He was Ultron wiping out swaths of humanity. Inside the division, he averaged 13.1 points. That was Kenneth Gainwell. That was good. Gainwell was a good player last year. Gibbs had games of 20.3, 19.4 and 15.0 games against the division. But “good” isn’t why you draft Jahmyr Gibbs. Going from runaway overall RB1 to back-end RB2 number is a big gap. The departure of David Montgomery probably helps Gibbs, but at the least, I’d think twice about using him in DFS in divisional games. (Worth noting: D’Andre Swift’s performance dropped 42.8% in divisional games. Josh Jacobs’ dropped 33.6%. The NFC North ate running backs up last year.)

Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks

Outside the division: 16.0 Inside the division: 9.8 Difference: -38.7% Darnold silenced a lot of doubters with his Super Bowl run, including maybe the best game of his career in the NFC Championship against the Rams. That being the freshest thing in our memory helps Darnold, but it also papers over some real warning signs during the season. Outside the NFC West last year, he had 21 touchdowns against 7 interceptions; inside it, the ratio was 4:7. To be fair, that includes a 0-TD, 4-INT game against the Rams in Week 11, but there was only one NFC West game last year when Darnold had more touchdowns than interceptions (Week 4 against the Cardinals, 1 touchdown and no picks). The NFC West games (or at least, the ones against the 49ers and Rams) were the most heated games of the year, and when the temperature went up, Darnold’s performance went down. The Rams aren’t going anywhere, and the 49ers should be healthier in 2026. I’d be wary of Darnold in divisional games yet again.