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Fantasy Baseball: Outfield sleeper and breakout picks for 2026
It’s key to any successful fantasy baseball season to correctly identify sleepers and breakouts. Below, we break down some of the top sleepers and breakouts at outfield.
Daylen Lile, Nationals (214.5 ADP)
The market is giving you a giveaway draft price here; please take advantage. Lile wasn’t overmatched in his first run through the majors, slashing .299/.437/.498 with nine homers and eight steals over 91 games. And the steal count is going to rise — he possesses a speed score in the 92nd percentile, and he had a silly 11 triples in 91 games last year. Some say the triple is a dying play in modern baseball — Lile is single-handedly bringing it back. His stolen-base success rate will rise as he gains experience.
The Nationals were patient with Lile at the front of his debut, but he was hitting cleanup at the end of last season. This year, he’s slotted in the No. 3 spot, after James Wood and CJ Abrams and ahead of Dylan Crews. I probably can’t sell you on the bottom of the Washington lineup, but the top needs little defense.
Lile was far from the fantasy radar at this time last year and arrived at the 2025 All-Star break having hit .234 with two homers in his initial 111 career at-bats. But things clicked over the summer, as he improved in each of the final three months and loudly broke out in September (.391 BA, 6 HR, 19 RBI, 20 R, 1.212 OPS). Lile has strong contact skills and a line-drive stroke, and his overall .299 batting average was well-supported by a .302 xBA. Although he lacks the ceiling of the more heralded Crews, Lile is a more polished hitter and is nearly a full year younger. He’s also faster, as Lile hasn’t yet put his 92nd percentile sprint speed to full use. As mentioned, the rebuilding Nats will likely make their outfield trio of Lile, Crews and James Wood the foundation of their lineup.
Ramon Laureano, Padres (213.9 ADP)
Laureano was probably the most underrated outfielder in fantasy baseball last year — he was the No. 29 outfielder in 5x5 value — and I initially had him as a double-digit value on my tiered rankings. I’m a little concerned the Nick Castellanos signing could create a logjam in the San Diego outfield, and ultimately, I decided to be prudent with Laureano’s ranking, mindful that he’s in his 30s and has never logged 500 at-bats in a season. Still, he’s an above-average hitter, and hopefully the Padres will give him some leash.
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Nobody picked outside the top 200 is a sure thing, but Laureano has already shown upside to be excited about.
Kerry Carpenter, Tigers (203.4 ADP)
Carpenter doesn’t take many walks and he’s never hit left-handed pitching much — the Tigers have generally platooned him — so at first glance, you’re thinking he’s a capped-ceiling player. But Carpenter showed some progress in limited work against lefties last year (three homers, .400 slugging) and Detroit is considering giving him more exposure to southpaws this season.
So you have two paths to make your money on Carpenter this year. If he approaches 500 at-bats, 30-plus homers and 85-plus RBI are reachable targets. And if the platoon sticks, at least he can focus on what he normally does: mashing right-handed pitching. Carpenter is also in the prime part of his career arc, stepping into his age-28 season. Carpenter is probably a better pick for leagues that allow for regular lineup tinkering, but no matter your format, consider his positives.
Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox (208.3 ADP)
I’m not going to cheat and call Abreu a breakout player, because we’ve seen growth the last two years (and he was great in limited action for the WBC champion Venezuelan team).
If he doesn’t get hurt in the second half of 2025, Abreu likely gets home with 30 homers and 100 RBI. His .256 career average isn’t a problem, and although Boston’s outfield is congested — this roster is still begging for one more trade — Abreu’s Gold Glove defense marks his spot in the lineup. If Abreu didn’t get hurt last year, his ADP would surely be 30-50 slots higher this spring.
Justin Crawford, Phillies (203.5 ADP)
The ADP is on the rise but it’s still going to be reasonable all spring, so consider the upside case with this intriguing rookie. Crawford hasn’t developed power yet, but he was a .334/.411/.452 player at Triple-A last year, with 46 steals in 112 games. And that came while navigating his age-21 season; time is on his side.
Crawford is in camp as a non-roster invitee, given a chance to win the bigger half of Philly’s center field platoon. But with Johan Rojas facing a PED suspension, Crawford has a shot to take this job all for himself. Crawford's defense is MLB-ready — the Phillies will appreciate having a good defender join their outfield, for once — and he’s not going to have the bat knocked out of his hands.
Crawford also checks the pedigree box, as he’s the son of former All-Star Carl Crawford. You’ll see similarities in their games.
Alec Burleson, Cardinals (173.9 ADP)
I’m putting Burleson towards the bottom of today’s list because he might be more of a value pick than a true sleeper. Again, amigos, I’m not hung up on definitions. I’m just trying to give you some appealing players to target in your drafts, guys you can make a profit on. Burleson applies.
Burleson figured out lefties in 2025 and no longer has any worry about being platooned. His contact skills are excellent and he still might grow into a 25-30 homer guy. He also qualifies at first base, which has quietly become a difficult fill in recent seasons. The Cardinals will probably have Burleson in the No. 3 slot all year, ideal for volume and run production.
Dylan Crews, Nationals (200.4 ADP)
Once one of baseball’s best prospects, Crews has thus far sputtered in the majors, logging a .634 OPS in 412 at-bats over two seasons. But this youngster has such a fantasy-friendly skill set that even with little success at the dish, he has still managed to produce 13 homers and 29 steals. The No. 2 overall pick of the 2023 MLB Draft has been hamstrung by a .248 BABIP, and the combination of better luck and improved skills will lead to a breakout campaign. For the cost of a late-round pick, managers could find themselves with a 24-year-old who hits .260 with 20 homers and 35 steals.
Dominic Canzone, Mariners (Undrafted)
Despite doing some excellent things at the plate last season, Canzone is a complete afterthought in most drafts. The slugger hit .300 with 11 homers in 269 at-bats, thanks to elite marks in average exit velocity (92.4 mph) and barrel rate (14.5%). His success at the dish was well-supported by his expected marks, and his .533 xSLG was even higher than his .481 SLG.
The left-handed hitter also put himself in position to be considered for a full-time role by posting a respectable .712 OPS against southpaws. The Mariners have a top-heavy lineup and could really use someone to emerge as the No. 6 hitter. Canzone currently looks like their best bet.
Evan Carter, Rangers (Undrafted)
After breaking out by posting a .917 OPS during the Rangers’ World Series run in 2023, Carter has dealt with significant injuries over each of the past two seasons. But he is healthy right now, and with 15 homers and 19 steals over 400 career at-bats, the 23-year-old has already proven to have the diverse skill set that is coveted in category formats. Despite going undrafted in practically all Yahoo leagues, Carter has 20-20 potential if he can stay off the injured list. Additionally, he should immediately improve on his career .235 average, since he made massive improvements on his strikeout rate last year.
Matt Wallner, Twins (Undrafted)
Wallner is the definition of an all-or-nothing masher, as is evidenced by his career 32.3% strikeout rate and 15.7% barrel rate. He dealt with terrible luck last season, as his .228 BABIP seemed nearly impossible for someone who hits the ball so hard.
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Even in a down year, he still managed to produce 22 homers in 336 at-bats, thanks to his penchant for producing pulled fly balls. Wallner also logged some time on the IL last year, and this time around he will use better durability and improved luck to hit .250 with 30 home runs.
Jesús Sánchez, Blue Jays (Undrafted)
A Sánchez breakout may not be as spectacular as that of the others on this list, but it still could happen for someone who has become an afterthought in fantasy drafts. By being traded twice since last summer and ultimately moving from Miami to Toronto, Sánchez received an upgrade in both supporting cast and home ballpark. A poor finish to the 2025 season with the Astros hid the fact that he improved his walk rate last year, while maintaining strong marks in average exit velocity (91.3 mph) and barrel rate (11.1%). The Blue Jays made a point of acquiring Sánchez on the eve of spring training, and he should occupy a premium lineup spot against righties. He has averaged 14.5 steals over the past two years and should finally produce a 20-homer season.
