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March Madness bracket predictions: Cinderellas, upsets, Final Four picks and more for women's NCAA tournament

After months of waiting, March Madness is finally here.

The First Four is set for Wednesday and Thursday, but that's merely an appetizer to the main course that picks up on Friday when the NCAA tournament will be in full swing.

So what can we expect over the next three weeks? Our experts weigh in with their predictions for which No. 1 seeds are the most vulnerable, which teams are the best Cinderella picks, Final Four teams, national championship winners and more.

[Yahoo Fantasy Bracket Mayhem: Make your picks for $50K in total prizes]

NCAA women's tournament predictions

If there were ever a year to automatically pencil in every No. 1 to the Final Four and feel good about it, this might be it. The four-pack of UConn, UCLA, Texas and South Carolina stood above the rest and is the third collection of teams to earn No. 1 seeds the year after they all played in the Final Four. They finished this season as four of the top five teams in net rating, led by UConn (plus-53.1) and extending down to South Carolina’s plus-39.3 that is nine points higher than the next-closest squad, according to CBB Analytics.  

The Huskies (34-0) put up one of their most dominant seasons ever despite losing All-American Paige Bueckers to the WNBA. UConn’s net rating is third all time, trailing two of the Breanna Stewart-led championship teams of the 2010s. A new best-in-program-history player is arriving in Sarah Strong, who could tie Stewart with four titles in four years. The 6-foot-2 forward makes everything look easy and paces this iteration with nearly unheard of shooting splits of 60.1% from the field, 42.7% from 3 and 87.3% from the free throw line. 

UCLA (31-1) went undefeated in the Big Ten with a 51-point win in the conference title game over Iowa. The Bruins only lost to Texas back in November. Texas (31-3) and South Carolina (31-3) took some hits in the SEC schedule, but still stood above the pack in a deep conference of heavyweight talent. 

At least one No. 2 or No. 3 seed has reached the Final Four every tournament since 2018, the last time all No. 1 seeds reached the final weekend. Only three times since 2009 have all No. 1s made it to the Final Four. So if putting through all four feels wrong, take a look at Sacramento 2 for an upset pick. LSU is the fifth team of the top five in NET rating at a second-best 43.7, though its numbers are bloated from a weak non-conference schedule in which it stacked 100-point outings like candy. Still, its guard group can torch a defense. 

In terms of a champion? Only three times since 2009 has a non-No. 1 seed won it all. Two of those are since 2023, and both of those teams were already mentioned here. UConn won as a No. 2 seed last April and LSU, with a freshman Flau’jae Johnson, took it all in 2023 as the No. 3 seed. Stick to the classics this year to avoid the bracket bust.

Cassandra Negley

Who will be cutting down the nets in Phoenix in early April? (Davis Long/Yahoo Sports)
Who will be cutting down the nets in Phoenix in early April? (Davis Long/Yahoo Sports)

Everything you need to know about March Madness

Printable NCAA brackets for both men’s and women’s tournaments
Tourney Bracket 101: How to choose upsets, make your picks
Women’s region breakdowns: Fort Worth 1 | Sacramento 2 | 3 | 4
6 NCAA tournament Cinderella picks
First-round tip times for the NCAA women’s tournament
Power ranking all the title contenders
Non-No. 1 seeds that could make the Final Four
4 teams with the best chance of knocking off UConn

March Madness bracket predictions: Cinderellas, upsets, Final Four picks and more for men's NCAA tournament

After months of waiting, March Madness is finally here.

The First Four is already providing plenty of drama for college basketball fans, but that's merely an appetizer to the main course that picks up on Thursday when the NCAA tournament will be in full swing.

So what can we expect over the next three weeks? Our experts weigh in with their predictions for which No. 1 seeds are the most vulnerable, which teams are the best Cinderella picks, Final Four teams, national championship winners and more.

[Yahoo Fantasy Bracket Mayhem: Make your picks for $50K in total prizes]

NCAA tournament predictions

Don’t go buck wild picking teams seeded 12th or worse to win their first-round matchups in this year’s NCAA tournament.

This could be the second straight year when most teams that advance have deep pockets, not glass slippers.

A combination of college basketball’s skyrocketing NIL payouts and the elimination of transfer restrictions has funneled the best players to the power-conference level and widened the gap between the sport’s haves and have-nots. Teams at the top of this year’s bracket are loaded with prized freshmen, international talent and proven veterans who can earn more money playing college basketball than in overseas pro leagues or the G League.

By the numbers, Duke, Arizona and Michigan enter this year’s NCAA tournament as three of the strongest No. 1 seeds in recent memory. Each boast KenPom adjusted efficiency margins of at least 37.59, meaning that’s how many points that college basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy would project them to outscore the average Division I opponent by over 100 possessions.

Since the KenPom era began in 1997, only 10 teams have ever finished a season with adjusted efficiency margins higher than 35. Four of those are last year’s No. 1 seeds.

It isn’t just the No. 1 seeds who are unusually formidable this season. A total of 20 teams seeded sixth or higher have adjusted efficiency margins of plus-25. Only four teams finished above 25 at the end of the 2022-23 college basketball season. The year before that, there were nine. 

It’s the opposite story for schools from single-bid leagues who populate the seed lines at the bottom of this year’s bracket. Their adjusted efficiency margins are far weaker than usual this season as they’ve dealt with more roster turnover than usual and more power-conference schools poaching their best players.

Does that mean this year’s NCAA tournament is guaranteed to be a repeat of last March when the Sweet 16 was populated with nothing but high-majors? Not necessarily. March Madness didn’t get its name for nothing. The unexpected will happen. 

But don’t count on seeing another Florida Atlantic in this year’s Final Four or another St. Peter’s in this year’s Elite Eight. This is going to be another March where the juggernauts mostly swat aside the giant slayers and battle for the championship amongst themselves.

Jeff Eisenberg

Who will be cutting down the nets in Indianapolis in early April? (Davis Long/Yahoo Sports)
Who will be cutting down the nets in Indianapolis in early April? (Davis Long/Yahoo Sports)

Everything you need to know about March Madness

Printable NCAA brackets for both men’s and women’s tournaments
Tourney Bracket 101: How to choose upsets, make your picks
Ranking all 68 teams in the NCAA men’s tournament
Men’s regional breakdowns: East | West | Midwest | South
5 Men’s Cinderella picks | Women’s Cinderella picks
Which top seeds could bust your bracket?
Dark horse teams that could blow up your bracket
AI predicts every game in the NCAA men’s tournament
First-round tip times for men’s games

85 days to the World Cup: When soccer's biggest stage belonged to Pelé

The countdown to the 2026 World Cup is on! Each day ahead of the tournament’s return to North America, Yahoo Sports will highlight an insight or moment that showcases just how grand the world’s biggest sporting spectacle has become — even beyond the expanded field of this year’s global event.

Pelé holds a number of records in soccer, and the World Cup is no exception.

The Brazil legend remains the only player to win three World Cups. At his very first World Cup in 1958, he announced himself in historic fashion: scoring at 17 years and 239 days old to become the youngest goal scorer in tournament history. Five days later, he became the youngest player to record a hat trick at the World Cup; and five days after that he became the youngest ever to score in a final.

Pelé's impact didn’t stop there. His 12 World Cup goals are tied for third-most all time, alongside France's Kylian Mbappé. He is also one of five players to score in four World Cups, along with Cristiano Ronaldo, Miroslav Klose, Lionel Messi and Uwe Seeler.

And then there’s the winning. Three World Cup titles goes a long way to boosting one's winning percentage. Pelé is no exception. He won an incredible 86% of his games at the World Cup in his career (12 wins in 14 matches) for Brazil.

Dolphins reportedly trade WR Jaylen Waddle to Broncos in blockbuster move

The Miami Dolphins continue their rebuild, now moving on from star wide receiver via a blockbuster trade with the Denver Broncos, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported Tuesday.

The Broncos will receive Waddle and Miami’s 2026 fourth-round pick, while the Dolphins will receive Denver’s 2026 first-round pick (30th overall), as well as third and fourth-round picks, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

This breaking news story will be updated.

86 days to the World Cup: Why going undefeated doesn't guarantee a knockout-round appearance

The countdown to the 2026 World Cup is on! Each day ahead of the tournament’s return to North America, Yahoo Sports will highlight an insight or moment that showcases just how grand the world’s biggest sporting spectacle has become — even beyond the expanded field of this year’s global event.

Every World Cup team is guaranteed at least three group stage games. Avoid defeat in all three, and you’d expect to move on, but that’s not always the case.

Four teams in World Cup history have the infamous distinction of going undefeated, yet failing to advance out of the group stage.

At the 1982 World Cup Cameroon drew all three of its matches in its tournament debut, including a result against eventual champions Italy. But, with just one goal scored, Cameroon fell short and was eliminated.

Belgium (at the 1998 World Cup) and New Zealand (at the 2010 tournament) suffered the same fate, drawing all three matches but finishing behind teams that simply won more games.

This unique group also includes the unfortunate 1974 Scotland team, which won its opening game and drew its final two in the group. They ended up in a three-way tie with Yugoslavia and Brazil, but were undone by the lowest goal difference.

The 2026 World Cup will feature the most teams ever with 48, which means 16 will be eliminated during the group stage and 32 teams will move on to the knockout round.

More teams advancing will give those involved a better chance of escaping the group stage, especially since the eight best third-place teams will also be part of the Round of 32.

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