Drafting a roster of high-floor, low-ceiling players is a great way to finish in third place. And we all know that third-place fantasy baseball finishes are rarely remembered by those who record them. Having a collection of stable players is fine, but they need to be augmented with a few players who could significantly outperform their ADP.

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Here are some players who have a wide range of potential outcomes.

Ronald Acuña Jr., OF, Atlanta Braves

With an ADP of 10.9, Acuña is the last available hitter who has a reasonable chance of finishing as the No. 1 overall player. He completed that feat in 2023 (41 HR, 73 BA, .337 BA) but after logging a total of 144 games over two injury-plagued seasons, there is a good reason that he is still available near the end of the first round. There is no doubt that the 28-year-old is still an outstanding hitter, as he logged a .935 OPS across 95 games last year. His durability and base-stealing aggressiveness (9 SB in 2025) are the two variables that will dictate whether he is a No. 1 overall contender or ranks outside the top-100 assets.

Verdict: Boom. Acuña is a great option in the second half of Rd. 1.

Trevor Story, SS, Boston Red Sox

Story joined Juan Soto, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Julio Rodríguez as the only players to go 25-90-90-30 last season. Two of those players are first-round picks, Crow-Armstrong is being selected at the end of the third round and Story has an ADP of pick 120.6. The reasons for fantasy trepidation are easy to see, as the 33-year-old hit .232 with 21 homers and 29 steals across 163 games over his initial three seasons with the Red Sox. The shortstop should be productive on a per-game basis, with durability being his only question mark.

Verdict: Boom. The risk of drafting Story is baked into his ADP. He’s a fine option.

Cole Ragans, SP, Kansas City Royals

Ragans was terrific in his 2024 breakout season (3.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 223 SO). In some ways (2.42 FIP, 14.3 K/9 rate), he was even better in a 2025 campaign that was limited to 13 starts due to groin and rotator cuff injuries. The recent injury history, along with a 4.67 ERA that was influenced by a .357 BABIP will scare some drafters away. Most of the industry is still on board with the lefty, as his 53.7 ADP is ahead of starters such as Jacob deGrom, Joe Ryan and Freddy Peralta.

Verdict: Boom. But everyone is seeing the potential of Ragans, which makes him a fair (but not special) option at his ADP.

Trent Grisham, OF, New York Yankees

Grisham came out of nowhere to produce 35 homers, 74 RBI and 87 runs in his age-29 season. Feeling lucky about a repeat? If you are, he’s all yours, as Grisham is going undrafted in 51% of leagues and has an ADP of 204.3.

Verdict: Boom. I see Grisham as a calculated risk at that point, as he is joined by Brandon Lowe and Spencer Torkelson as the only players available past pick 150 who are coming off a 30-homer season.

Adley Rutschman, C, Baltimore Orioles

Rutschman is trending in the wrong direction at the wrong time. His OPS dropped by exactly 100 points from 2023 to 2024, before experiencing further regression when he hit .220 with nine homers and a .673 OPS across 90 games last season. While he was sliding, many of his position mates were trending up, which has made the catcher position deeper than ever before.

Verdict: Bust. Rutschman has bounce-back potential, but there is no need to invest anything more than a late-round pick in him. In most one-catcher leagues, he should open the season on waivers.

Chris Sale, SP, Atlanta Braves

Entering his age-37 season, Sale is still so skilled that he could be a top-three starter if he can make 30 starts. After all, his 32.4% strikeout rate from last season rivals any ace, and his 2025 ratios (2.58 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) were terrific. Unfortunately, he’s unlikely to ever revisit his ceiling. The veteran had a 29-start season in 2024 that is sandwiched between a pair of 20-start campaigns. He has reached 160 innings just once since 2018.

Verdict: Bust. For me, a Rd. 4 pitcher needs to have better odds than Sale of staying off the IL. Everything I said about Sale also applies to deGrom, who is coming off a terrific season but has a long injury history and will turn 38 in June.

Chase Burns, SP, Cincinnati Reds

The No. 2 overall pick of the 2024 MLB Draft, Burns has shown similar skills to other young phenoms such as Trey Yesavage and Jacob Misiorowski. Poor luck (.360 BABIP, 64.0% strand rate) led to a 4.57 ERA over 43.1 innings last season and masked the dominance of a 35.6% strikeout rate.

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Verdict: Boom. Burns is being drafted later than the other high-upside starters, despite having the same ceiling. He’s a bargain at his ADP (123.6).

Trevor Rogers, SP, Baltimore Orioles

Rogers could be the toughest player to rank this season. He was incredibly effective in 18 starts last year (1.81 ERA, 0.90 WHIP). But his skills were good rather than great, especially his 24.3% strikeout rate. He also pitched poorly enough in spring training that he opened the season in the minors, despite being part of a pitching-starved organization. He wasn’t great in Triple-A either, and at the moment he was recalled, the lefty had a career 4.36 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP.

Verdict: Bust. There are enough reasons to be wary of Rogers to leave him on the board past his ADP of pick 151.2.

Devin Williams, RP, New York Mets

Williams is the only reliever who is being drafted within the top 10 at his position despite losing a closer’s role multiple times last year with the Yankees. His current ADP (104.0) could be a bargain, as he entered 2025 with a career 1.83 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 14.3 K/9 rate. The Mets have handed him the keys to the ninth inning, and in a perfect scenario, Williams could be the No. 1 overall reliever on a team that wins 90+ games.

Verdict: Boom. The massive upside of Williams makes him worth the risk. This is especially true in standard Yahoo formats, where replacement save sources can sometimes be found on the waiver wire.