The 2026 NCAA tournament continues on Thursday and Friday with eight more exciting matchups, including potential Houston taking on an offensive powerhouse in Illinois and Rick Pitino's St. John's team facing No. 1 seed Duke.
The first rounds of March Madness saw plenty of favorites win — all 16 teams won on Friday for the first time since 1992 — but also its share of upsets (see: Iowa beating No. 1 Florida).
What's in store for the Sweet 16?
Below you'll find the favorite wagers for all the games from our college basketball handicappers — Corbie Craig, Matt Jacob, Matt Russell and Frank Schwab.
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All odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Best bets for Sweet 16 games
No. 11 Texas vs. No. 2 Purdue (-6.5, 148.5)
Russell: Texas, the last team that should be labelled as some sort of Cinderella, has made an improbable run, but the Longhorns' road from Dayton to Portland to Austin to San Jose, has benefitted from teams that were some combination of less talented, less deep and shakier coached than them.
Purdue is none of those things.
The Longhorns edged NC State on a late basket after they almost kicked away a lead built off of taking some of the least-efficient possessions imaginable from the Wolfpack offense, and by beating the 76th-ranked defense by Ken Pom. Then they went on to top BYU’s two-man team, using Matas Vokietaitis to dominate a team with poor interior defense (61st overall in KenPom). The 7-footer was able to match Gonzaga’s best player, under-sized big man Graham Ike, allowing a talent disparity on the wings to find an edge in another game decided by a late, difficult shot.
The Boilermakers have the combination of head coach-instituted infrastructure and a veteran group with the most efficient offensive metrics in the country taking on the Longhorns’ 81st-ranked defense, while also having enough size (6-10 Oscar Cluff) defensively so that Vokietaitis won’t be as effective as he showed against teams with far more holes.
With a spread projection of -8.4 at THE WINDOW, we’ll take the value with the favorite, created by a nice run for Texas against unspectacular teams.
Bet: Purdue -6.5
No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 4 Nebraska (-1.5, 132.5)
Russell: Iowa pulled off the upset of the tournament in knocking off the defending champion and 1-seed Florida, but it’s always a challenge to back that up — especially when you’re not sneaking up on the next team. This will be the rubber match for a pair of Big Ten teams that look similar on the surface, but true to their seeding, Nebraska is the better side, capable of withstanding more things that could go wrong.
The Huskers know that everything runs through Bennett Stirtz for the Hawkeyes, and that the Iowa star will almost definitely be playing 40 minutes, so look for Fred Hoiberg to make Stirtz play on defense, in an attempt to tire his shooting legs on the other end. To its credit, Iowa was able to overcome a poor shooting effort from Stirtz, but that’s a thin tight rope to walk.
As a team, Nebraska shoots the ball from 3 better than Iowa, and the Hawkeyes were among the bottom teams in the Big Ten on the glass. So, while these two met twice down the stretch playing closely in both, give Nebraska more than the 1.5 points of credit for being the better, more-versatile team.
Bet: Nebraska -1.5
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 1 Arizona (-7.5, 166.5)
Craig: The glaring concern with this Arkansas team is the defense, but context matters. When trailing, this group actually locks in defensively.
The urgency ramps up, the pressure increases and it allows their offense to open up into a much more dangerous transition attack. We’ve seen it before: down 10 vs Texas Tech before storming back for a neutral court win. We’ve also seen the counter opposite: up 9 late vs Duke proceed by a collapse and lose by 9. Game script matters here.
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Most will look at this matchup and ask: Can Arkansas hang around? I see the opposite. They’re far more dangerous playing from behind than protecting a lead and against an Arizona team that’s likely to control stretches, and actually plays into Arkansas’ identity. Add in their size and athleticism to match up better than expected, and this game won't be nearly as lopsided as the line suggests.
Bet: Arkansas +7.5
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Houston (-2.5, 139.5)
Schwab: This might be the best matchup of the Sweet 16. The Illini were in the running for a No. 2 seed but four overtime losses ended that. Houston earned its No. 2 seed and is one of the best programs in the sport. The Cougars are coming off back-to-back 31-point wins to start the tournament, reminding everyone they can win it all. The matchup comes down to Illinois’ offense (No. 2 at KenPom) vs. Houston’s defense (No. 4 at KenPom). Illinois is on the same tier as Houston, so the spread seems a little high for what should be an evenly matched game.
Bet: Houston -2.5
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