The post Iran’s Bitcoin Toll at Hormuz Could Generate Millions in Daily BTC Demand appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News

For weeks, the Iran war has been one of the biggest reasons Bitcoin couldn’t sustain a rally.

Now, the same war handed Bitcoin one of the most unusual demand signals in its history.

Iran has announced that oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz must now pay a toll in Bitcoin. The tariff is set at $1 per barrel of oil, with the largest tankers carrying up to 3 million barrels – meaning a single passage could require a $3 million Bitcoin payment. Empty tankers pass for free. Everyone else pays in BTC, within seconds of receiving Iranian approval.

“Once the email arrives and Iran completes its assessment, vessels are given a few seconds to pay in Bitcoin, ensuring they can’t be traced or confiscated due to sanctions,” said Hamid Hosseini, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union.

Why Iran Chose Bitcoin and Why It Matters

The reasoning is straightforward: Bitcoin bypasses dollar-based financial channels, is non-sovereign, and falls outside the reach of Western sanctions. It fits precisely within Iran’s existing $7.8 billion crypto ecosystem, which Chainalysis has documented as increasingly central to how Iran moves money across borders.

This is not a small story. A sovereign government mandating Bitcoin as payment infrastructure for one of the world’s most strategically important shipping lanes – a route that carries approximately 20% of global oil supply – is huge.

Read More: Crypto Traders Are Calm Before CPI Data Release: Top 3 Price Scenarios

Martin Kelly, head of advisory at maritime intelligence group EOS Risk, noted the practical impact: under the new framework, only 10 to 15 ships can transit the Strait per day, down from 135 before the war began.

Adding an extraordinary dimension to the story, President Trump told ABC News on Wednesday that he was considering a US-Iran “joint venture” on the tolling system.

“It’s a way of securing it – also securing it from lots of other people. It’s a beautiful thing,” he said.

Bullish Signals Are Stacking

The toll announcement landed alongside two independent Bitcoin signals on the same day.

Michael Saylor, speaking at a Mizuho investor event, said Bitcoin likely bottomed near $60,000 in early February when forced sellers were flushed out, with ETF inflows now absorbing daily supply.

Separately, Bitcoin’s net taker volume just hit its highest level since early February – a sign that aggressive buyers have returned to the market.

Bitcoin surged above $72,000 following the ceasefire announcement and extended gains as the toll news broke.

The ceasefire is fragile and the toll system is still finding its feet. But for the first time since the war began, the same conflict that pressured Bitcoin is now creating direct, sanctions-proof demand for it. That’s a shift worth watching.

The post Crypto Traders Are Calm Before CPI Data Release: Top 3 Price Scenarios appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News

The March CPI report lands tomorrow at 8:30am ET, and it carries more weight than any inflation print this year. Economists are forecasting a sharp jump to 3.3% year-on-year, up from February’s 2.4% reading – the first report to fully capture the inflationary impact of the Iran war and the oil price surge that came with it.

US gasoline prices breached $4 per gallon nationally in March for the first time since August 2022, and the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast has been flagging elevated monthly price growth for weeks.

What makes Friday unusual is that the experts and the traders are not reading the situation the same way.

The Gap Between Expert Concern and Market Pricing

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said that Bitcoin is “currently pricing in just a 2.5% swing in either direction” on the back of the data with implied volatility at its lowest level since January.

Iliya Kalchev, analyst at Nexo, sees it differently, warning that “every inflation print carries asymmetric weight for crypto – a softer read reopens the rate-cut conversation; a hotter one hardens the higher-for-longer narrative further.”

The March jobs report adds another layer of complexity.

The US added 178,000 jobs last month, with 186,000 private sector gains – figures Trump celebrated on Truth Social. But analysts were quick to point out that the jobs data is entirely backward-looking and reflects none of the war’s economic impact.

A strong labour market alongside rising inflation gives the Federal Reserve even less justification to cut rates.

Read More: Is Bitcoin Being Manipulated by Market Insiders?

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Three CPI Scenarios

If inflation comes in hotter than expected above 3.5%, the rate cut case weakens considerably and Bitcoin risks losing the $70,000 level it just reclaimed, with $68,400 as the next support.

Analyst Ted Pillows just flagged that BTC “failed to hold above the $72,000 level” and that after one potential final pump, “BTC will dump towards new lows.”

A reading in line with expectations at 3.3% would likely produce a muted reaction, with Bitcoin consolidating in its current range while markets wait for the April 30 Fed meeting. A cooler-than-expected print below 3.0% would reopen the rate cut narrative, with $74,000 as the key breakout target based on current Deribit options positioning.

What On-Chain Data Is Saying

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that only 59% of Bitcoin supply is currently in profit, approaching bear market levels where the historical average sits closer to 75%.

“The current environment appears more suited for accumulation than for selling at this stage,” he wrote.

Lark Davis sees the weekly MACD mirroring the bottoming structure from July 2022, though he cautions that “a cross is only a cross on the weekly close.”

The data is building a case. Friday’s inflation print will either validate it or complicate it significantly.

The post Bithumb’s $43B Bitcoin Error Lands in Court as Exchange Chases Final 7 BTC appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News

Bithumb has filed for a court-approved asset freeze to recover 7 BTC, worth approximately $496,000, from users who have refused to return funds two months after the exchange’s catastrophic payout error.

The legal action marks the final unresolved chapter of one of the largest accidental Bitcoin distributions in exchange history.

Bithumb $43 Billion Bitcoin Error: What Actually Happened

On February 6, a Bithumb employee running a “Random Box” promotional event entered the wrong currency unit. Instead of distributing 2,000 Korean won, roughly $1.37, to each winner, the system sent 2,000 BTC to 695 users simultaneously.

In minutes, Bithumb’s internal ledger showed 620,000 BTC credited to user accounts.

None of it was real Bitcoin. It existed only as numbers in a database. But some users didn’t wait to find out – they sold immediately. Bitcoin’s price on Bithumb crashed 17% to $55,000 while global prices barely moved.

Accounts were frozen within 35 minutes. By the end of the day, 99.7% had been reversed.

“The fact that a single error in setting an event reward unit can destabilize an entire crypto exchange demonstrates the current state of our systems,” Bithumb’s Exchange Business Division Vice President Hwang Seung-wook wrote in an internal email.

Also Read: Is Bitcoin Being Manipulated by Market Insiders?

Bithumb Fined After Regulatory Failures Exposed

Recovery wasn’t the end of it. South Korea’s FSS, FSC and FIU all launched investigations. CEO Lee Jae-won told parliament: “We are acutely aware of the deficiency in internal system control.”

Lawmakers revealed regulators had inspected Bithumb three times between 2022 and 2025, and missed every structural warning sign.

Three weeks ago, the FIU fined Bithumb $24.6 million for 6.65 million AML violations and suspended new-user registration for six months.

The incident has also cost Bithumb its near-term growth ambitions – the exchange has delayed its planned US IPO to 2028 as a direct result of the fallout.

Is Your Crypto Safe on a Centralised Exchange?

The 7 BTC court filing isn’t really about $496,000. It’s about whether users who knowingly kept funds from an obvious glitch face legal consequences – a question South Korean courts are now being asked to answer for the first time.

South Korea’s Supreme Court ruled in January that Bitcoin held on exchanges can be treated as property subject to seizure. That ruling now has its first real test case.

What the Bithumb incident exposed is something the industry rarely discusses openly: exchange balances aren’t Bitcoin. They’re entries in a private ledger.

The post Is Bitcoin Being Manipulated by Market Insiders? appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News

Bitcoin surged above $72,500 within minutes of the ceasefire announcement on Tuesday. Wallets tied to Binance, Coinbase, Wintermute, and Grayscale all moved simultaneously. Then the price stalled and started pulling back.

To a lot of people watching on-chain data, that looked like a setup and potential manipulation. And they’re not entirely wrong to ask the question.

What the On-Chain Data Actually Shows

The coordinated wallet movements are real.

On-chain tracker Alex Mason flagged clustered market buys hitting thin order books, followed by what he called “selling right into liquidation zones.” The data shows Binance hot wallets, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust deposits to Coinbase Prime, Wintermute activity – all within the same window.

Here’s what that data doesn’t tell you: whether it was engineered or reactive.

What we know for certain is this. Before the move, the market was stacked with short positions – traders betting on more Iran war escalation.

When Trump posted a two-week ceasefire on Truth Social just before his 8pm ET deadline on Tuesday, those short positions became a time bomb, those short positions became a time bomb.

Also Read: Who’s Actually Making Money in Bitcoin Right Now? STH vs LTH Data

$595 Million Wiped Out – But Not Who You Think

According to CoinGlass data, $595 million in crypto futures were liquidated in 24 hours. Of that, $427 million – over 70% – were short positions. The bears bore the brunt, not retail longs. The institutional wallets moving simultaneously weren’t engineering the dump.

One explanation analysts point to: large institutional wallets – ETFs, market makers, custodians – repositioning in real time as ceasefire news hit. That’s standard behaviour for desks managing billions in exposure when a macro event breaks.

But the timing and coordination are exactly what makes it hard to dismiss the manipulation question entirely. In thin liquidity, large coordinated buys do push price into zones where shorts get wiped. Whether that’s deliberate or just institutional capital moving fast in a shallow market is a question the data alone can’t answer.

The Warning Sign Nobody Is Talking About

Bitcoin is now sitting at $71,188, down 0.91% on the day, and the ceasefire rally has stalled. Bitfinex margin long positions are at 80,000 BTC, the highest level in over two years. Historically, these build during market stress. They haven’t unwound yet.

Tomorrow’s US CPI report drops at 8:30am ET. If inflation comes in hot, the Fed rate cut case collapses and Bitcoin risks losing the $70,000 level it just reclaimed. If it cools, analysts point to $74,000 as the next target.

The real manipulation, if there is any, will show up in how the market reacts to data it can’t front-run.

Read More: Bull and Bear Case for Bitcoin to Hit $1 Million: Are the Billionaires Right?

The post BREAKING: Trump Declares Total Regime Change in Iran – Bitcoin at $68K and Falling appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News

Trump has yet again posted something that stopped crypto traders mid-session.

“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.”

That is not a ceasefire signal. That is a regime change declaration. And Bitcoin is sitting at $68,355 – already down 1.61% on the day, erasing the gains it spent all of Monday building.

From $70,000 to Regime Change in 24 Hours

Less than 24 hours ago, this felt like it might be resolved. Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey had sent a 45-day ceasefire proposal to both sides, with Pakistan’s army chief reportedly in contact “all night long” with US Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.

Bitcoin jumped above $70,000 on Monday, its highest since March 25, as markets priced in de-escalation and roughly $273 million in bearish bets were unwound.

Then Iran rejected the proposal. Tehran said it wants a permanent end to the war, not a 45-day pause, and that “negotiations are entirely incompatible with ultimatums.” Trump called the proposal “a significant step but not good enough.”

Defense Secretary Hegseth told reporters: “Today will be the largest volume of strikes since day one. Tomorrow, even more than today.”

Bitcoin’s Iran Pattern: Every Peace Signal, Every Dump

This whipsaw is not new. QCP Capital confirmed that Bitcoin has been trading in a $65,000 to $70,000 band throughout the conflict, rising on peace signals and falling on escalation. The pattern has played out so consistently that seasoned traders have stopped watching charts and started watching Trump’s Truth Social feed instead.

When Trump posted “great progress” in ceasefire talks, Bitcoin climbed to $67,800. When Iran rejected the 15-point peace proposal, it slid back. Bitcoin fell 2.2% earlier today before the regime change post even landed, per Bloomberg.

As Coinpedia reported previously, Iran’s own denials have repeatedly reversed whatever market gains a Trump peace post created – the Iran Reverse Indicator theory playing out in real time.

What Does Trump’s Truth Social Post Mean for Bitcoin

If tonight ends in de-escalation, Bitcoin likely pushes back toward $70,000. If infrastructure strikes escalate as threatened, markets face their most serious test of this conflict.

At $68,355 with a live deadline and a regime change declaration on Truth Social, the next few hours matter.

The post Who’s Actually Making Money in Bitcoin Right Now? STH vs LTH Data appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News

$276 million was wiped from crypto traders in a single day this week as Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $69,000, squeezing leveraged traders on both sides. As of now, Bitcoin sits at $68,274 – down over 2% in 24 hours and 45% below its all-time high.

If you’re watching your portfolio bleed, you’re probably asking one question: who on earth is making money right now?

The answer might surprise you.

Who’s Losing Money in the Bitcoin Crash Right Now

The most visible losers right now are leveraged traders on both sides. On April 6, as Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $69,000, 80,202 traders were liquidated across crypto derivatives markets in 24 hours – $276 million wiped out, with short sellers bearing the brunt as bearish bets got squeezed out.

Then there’s the broader group quietly suffering: short-term holders – investors who bought Bitcoin less than six months ago. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, their average cost basis sits at $85,400, well above Bitcoin’s current price. That means they’re sitting on average unrealized losses of roughly 19.4%.

Some are holding. Many are panic selling.

Bitcoin LTH Supply Up 300,000 BTC: Who Is Actually Buying

Here’s what the panic headlines aren’t covering.

Long-term holder supply has increased by approximately 300,000 BTC. That means coins are actively moving from stressed, short-term hands into patient, long-term ones. The people who lived through previous cycles aren’t watching the Iran news and selling. They’re accumulating.

Analyst Joao Wedson’s 720-day Tactical Bull-Bear Sentiment Index tells the same story from a completely different angle. The indicator is currently sitting in extreme bearish territory – a zone that historically, in his words, is “not where trends start collapsing, but where they tend to end.”

He puts it well: “This could be the final ~5 months of fear and disinterest in Bitcoin. But also 5 months of accumulation by OGs.”

Buy, Sell or Hold Your Bitcoin?

That’s not a question this article will answer for you, and anyone who answers it with certainty is lying.

What the data does show is a familiar pattern. Darkfost notes that historically, when short-term holder losses exceed 25%, those levels have often coincided with early market bottoms. At 19.4%, we’re not there yet but the direction is clear.

Every Bitcoin cycle has the same cast. Reactive traders lose to the volatility. Patient accumulators absorb the supply. The Iran war accelerated the one dynamic that was already playing out.

Bitcoin is at $68,274. The fear is real. The question is which side of this trade you’re on.

The post Binance PRER Explained: New Trading Rule Introduced After October’s $19B Wipeout appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News

Binance is changing how orders execute on its spot market, and if you’ve been trading on the platform since October, you’ll understand exactly why.

Starting April 14, 2026, Binance will gradually roll out the Spot Price Range Execution Rule (PRER), a new mechanism that prevents orders from executing at abnormal prices during extreme market conditions.

What Is the PRER and How Does It Work?

The rule creates a dynamic price range around the current market price. Orders can only execute against liquidity that sits within that range. If prices deviate significantly from normal levels – due to a flash crash, thin liquidity, or abnormal market activity – orders simply won’t fill at those outlier prices.

In plain English: the mechanism that allowed tokens to print near-zero prices on Binance during extreme volatility gets blocked before it can wipe out your position.

Binance describes it as a feature designed “to help ensure trading occurs at prices that reflect a fair and orderly market.”

Binance October 10 Flash Crash: What Went Wrong

On October 10, 2025, $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated in hours – the largest single liquidation event in crypto history. Bitcoin fell from $122,000 to around $105,000. Some altcoins on Binance briefly printed near-zero prices. Ethena’s USDe depegged to $0.65 on Binance while holding $1.00 on every other exchange.

Traders couldn’t close positions. Stop-losses failed to execute. Platform systems buckled under the load.

The 10/10 incident exposed what many traders saw as a structural problem: abnormal prices executing directly against their positions, with no mechanism to stop it.

Also Read: Who Dumped $5B in Bitcoin as Israel Strikes Iran? Binance and Wintermute Wallets Flagged Again

Binance covered approximately $283 million in losses and pledged compensation for affected users. The PRER is Binance’s most significant spot trading rule change since.

How the New Rule Protects Binance Traders

For active Binance spot traders, the practical impact is significant. Orders will no longer execute at prices that deviate wildly from the real market, protecting traders from being filled at manipulated or cascade-driven extremes.

It won’t prevent a crash and won’t fix thin liquidity or oracle failures. But it closes one of the specific gaps that turned October 10 from a bad day into a catastrophic one for many traders.

The rollout begins April 14 and will be introduced gradually to ensure a smooth transition.

For the millions of traders still on the platform, it’s a meaningful step. Whether it’s enough will depend on what the next extreme market event looks like.

You Might Find This Interesting: Hyperliquid Volume Hits Binance-Comparable Levels In Less Than a Year

The post Bull and Bear Case for Bitcoin to Hit $1 Million: Are the Billionaires Right? appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News

Five of the most powerful people in finance have publicly predicted Bitcoin to hit $1 million. They also collectively hold a lot of it.

That is either the most bullish signal in crypto history, or the most expensive marketing campaign ever run.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $69,107, 45% below its all-time high.

Who Predicts Bitcoin Will Hit $1M?

The names are not small.

Jack Dorsey sees “at least a million” by 2030. Larry Fink, whose BlackRock holds over 782,000 BTC through IBIT, projects $500K to $700K with a path higher.

Michael Saylor, whose Strategy holds 766,970 BTC, targets $1M in four to eight years and $21M by 2045. Cathie Wood has revised down to $1.2M by 2030. CZ, who previously predicted $500K to $1M this cycle, has since shifted his framing – speaking at Davos in January 2026, he predicted a Bitcoin “supercycle” driven by US pro-crypto policy, saying on a “5-10 year horizon, it’s very easy to predict – we’re going to go up.”

Fink framed it well in his 2026 shareholder letter, comparing crypto’s current moment to the internet in 1996. He added that it won’t replace the existing financial system overnight, but could gradually connect traditional and digital markets in ways that make investing faster, cheaper, and more widely accessible.

Bull Case: Why $1M Bitcoin Is Mathematically Possible

The math behind it is strong.

Bitcoin delivered approximately 54% average annual returns from 2014 to 2024, according to BlackRock data. Only 21 million BTC will ever exist, with 99% mined by 2035. The US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is live. El Salvador, Bhutan, and multiple US states are accumulating. Fink has argued that institutions allocating just 2% to 5% of portfolios could push Bitcoin to $700K on its own.

The structural shift is also real in concrete terms. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust held approximately 782,429 BTC as of early April, worth roughly $55 billion. When the world’s largest asset manager is that deeply committed, the institutional adoption argument stops being theoretical.

Bear Case: Why the $1M Timeline May Be Wrong

Here is what the bull narrative glosses over. The original $1M thesis was built on a $100K base price in 2025. Bitcoin never got there sustainably. At $68,922, hitting $1M by 2030 now requires more than 137% compound annual growth for three consecutive years.

There is also a pattern worth noting. In 2021, “$100K is guaranteed” was the dominant narrative. In 2024, “$250K is inevitable.” Now it is “$1M is certain.”

The target keeps moving higher while retail repeatedly gets caught at cycle tops. Bloomberg commodity strategist Mike McGlone has raised the possibility of Bitcoin revisiting $10,000, a view almost nobody is amplifying right now, maybe because it is not in anyone’s financial interest to do so.

As analyst Crypto Patel put it: “These predictions are not charity. They are also their business models.”

Should You Buy Bitcoin Based on These Predictions?

Bitcoin reaching $1M may still happen. The supply and demand dynamics are real.

But understanding who is predicting it, and why, is the most important research you can do before deciding whether to buy.

The post Algorand Price Prediction: 3 Key Catalysts That Point to $0.50 appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News

Algorand just posted its best weekly performance in months. ALGO is up more than 47% over the past seven days, hitting an 11-week high of $0.126 on Monday before settling at $0.1232 at the time of writing – up 6.8% on the day and carrying a market cap nudging $1.09 billion.

Three things happened in the same window.

Google Named Algorand the Solution to the QC Problem

When Google’s Quantum AI team published its now-viral research paper on the threats quantum computing poses to major blockchains, most of the coverage focused on Bitcoin and Ethereum. That framing missed the more important detail.

Algorand was cited 32 times in the paper – more than any blockchain except Bitcoin and Ethereum. The difference: those two were referenced as vulnerabilities. Algorand was referenced as a solution, specifically for its post-quantum security and Falcon signature technology.

What makes that significant is that Algorand has been running Falcon in production since 2022. And the co-inventor of the cryptographic framework Falcon is built on is Algorand’s own Chief Scientific Officer.

Read More: Quantum Could Crack Your Bank, Stocks, and Nuclear Systems Too – So Why Is Bitcoin More Exposed?

Revolut Just Opened the Door to 70 Million Users

The second catalyst landed when Revolut rolled out native ALGO staking, giving its 70 million+ users direct access through the app.

Algorand staking is now available on @Revolut.

Over 70 million customers can now stake ALGO directly through one of the world’s largest neobanks. pic.twitter.com/yAvjHot4Jr

— Algorand Foundation (@AlgoFoundation) March 29, 2026

Revolut is one of Europe’s largest fintech platforms and one of the few consumer finance apps with genuine mainstream penetration outside the crypto-native audience. Native staking built directly into the app means ALGO is now one of the few assets an ordinary Revolut user can stake without leaving the platform.

That’s distribution at a scale most blockchain projects spend years trying to achieve.

The SEC Cleared a Major Institutional Barrier

The third piece often gets overlooked. The SEC and CFTC jointly classified ALGO as a digital commodity. Algorand Foundation CEO Stacy Warden addressed this directly in a Bloomberg interview, calling it “bedrock regulatory clarity.”

The practical impact is specific: staking is now classified as an administrative act rather than an investment contract. That removes the legal ambiguity that had kept institutional players cautious about engaging with ALGO.

Also Read: Is the Crypto Bear Market Finally Ending? Top 3 Signals and 1 Warning

Algorand Price Prediction: What Comes Next?

The market has responded. Open interest in ALGO futures jumped from $30 million to $75 million in a single week. The long/short ratio moved above 1, suggesting most derivatives traders are leaning bullish.

Analysts point to $0.20 as the near-term target, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. A longer-term analyst target of $0.50 has also circulated, contingent on sustained institutional demand.

The broader market is watching whether this momentum holds.

The post XRP News Today: Ripple, a16z, SBI and Rakuten Converge in Japan Tomorrow appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News

Tomorrow, Tokyo becomes extremely important for Ripple and XRP going forward.

XRP Tokyo 2026 takes place on April 7 at Happo-en – a 400-year-old Japanese garden – bringing together 3,000+ attendees, 20+ speakers, and the senior leadership of Ripple for Asia’s largest conference dedicated exclusively to XRP and the XRP Ledger.

Why Tokyo, Why Now?

Japan is not a peripheral crypto market. It is one of the most regulated and institutionally developed crypto ecosystems on the planet, and XRP sits near the top of it. The JVCEA Green List – Japan’s FSA-recognised framework for institutional-grade crypto assets – currently shows XRP handled by 20 member exchanges, making it the third most widely adopted asset in Japan’s regulated ecosystem behind only BTC and ETH.

Japan’s tokenized real-world asset market is already managing $2.8 billion in institutional platforms, with projections pointing toward $6-7 billion by year end.

XRP Tokyo is where that infrastructure conversation happens at scale.

Also Read: Is the Crypto Bear Market Finally Ending? Top 3 Signals and 1 Warning

Who’s In the Room

Ripple is the event’s title sponsor and is sending senior leadership including Christina Chan, Tatsuya Kohrogi, and Markus Infanger. J. Ayo Akinyele, Head of Engineering at RippleX, is also confirmed to speak.

The institutional weight extends beyond Ripple. Takuya Sugiyama, Vice President of SBI Ripple Asia, is on the agenda alongside SungMo Park from a16z Crypto, Tatsuya Yamada from Rakuten Wallet, and representatives from Evernorth, Securitize Japan, and the University of Tokyo.

This is a convergence of builders, capital, and policy.

What XRP Holders Are Watching

On-chain data adds another layer to the timing. XRP whale accumulation just hit a 10-month high, with large holders taking in more than 11 million XRP per day according to CryptoQuant. XRP is currently trading at $1.35, up nearly 4% on the day.

The agenda centres on institutional adoption, RWA tokenization on the XRPL, and DeFi – the three areas where Japan’s regulatory clarity gives XRP a structural advantage over most competing networks.

The CLARITY Act markup is also expected in late April in the US. What gets said in Tokyo tomorrow will land in a market that is actively repricing what institutional XRP adoption actually looks like.

The event runs from 5F to 6F at Happo-en, with an XRP Tokyo Stage, exhibition floor, and VIP after party. It is part of the broader TEAMZ Web3/AI Summit running April 6-8.

FAQs

The post Trader Opens $51M Short On Oil: What Happens to Bitcoin If Oil Prices Crash? appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News

Oil is sliding. Bitcoin is climbing. And a trader who has made $116 million in five months just opened a $51 million bet that the gap between them is about to widen significantly.

The position – a short on Brent crude opened today – was flagged by analysts on X. The timing is deliberate. Crude is down 0.52% to $110.96 and Brent has fallen to $108.53 as ceasefire talks between the US and Iran gather momentum. Bitcoin is simultaneously trading at $69,894, up 4.30% on the day.

This is a pattern that has played out multiple times since this war began.

Also Read: Is the Crypto Bear Market Finally Ending? Top 3 Signals and 1 Warning

Why Oil Is Bitcoin’s Most Important Signal Right Now

Every significant oil drop during the Iran conflict has been followed by a Bitcoin rally.

The mechanism runs through Fed policy. High oil means inflation stays elevated, rate cuts stay off the table, and liquidity stays tight. When oil falls, that entire chain reverses. Mercado Bitcoin confirmed the broader picture: Bitcoin has historically outperformed both gold and the S&P 500 in the 60 days following major global shocks.

The prediction markets are already moving. Polymarket’s probability of oil hitting $120 by April 30 has dropped from 65% to 47% in a week. Ceasefire odds jumped from 18% to 28% in just 24 hours. Total Iran-related volume on Polymarket has crossed $100 million.

The Dry Powder Building

CryptoTice flagged something equally telling today: stablecoin reserves on Binance just flipped higher.

“This is not panic. This is preparation,” he wrote. “Capital doesn’t move to Binance to sit idle forever. It moves there to become something else. The buyers are loading up quietly. The trigger is getting closer.”

On-chain data from Arkham adds another layer. Large BTC inflows hit Binance hot wallets simultaneously in the minutes before the US market open, with multiple deposits ranging from $1.7 million to $29.9 million arriving in rapid succession.

BREAKING

BINANCE JUST STARTED BUYING BITCOIN RIGHT BEFORE THE U.S. MARKET OPEN!

THEY'RE BUYING MILLIONS EVERY FEW MINUTES, NONSTOP.

LOOKS LIKE THEY KNOW GOOD NEWS IS COMING pic.twitter.com/kHiwlK2rQo

— Wimar.X (@DefiWimar) April 6, 2026

Stablecoins building and BTC flowing in at the same time tells a specific story about positioning.

The Signal Is Not Confirmed Yet

This exact setup – oil dipping, ceasefire headlines, Bitcoin lifting – has appeared and reversed multiple times since February 28. Trump’s deadline for Iran expires tomorrow.

The whale has positioned, Polymarket odds are shifting, stablecoins are staging on Binance, and large BTC is flowing in – all in the same window.

Until oil breaks lower and holds, and until a ceasefire moves from 28% odds to confirmed, the signal remains unconfirmed.

The post Is the Crypto Bear Market Finally Ending? Top 3 Signals and 1 Warning appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News

Bitcoin is trading at $69,230 this morning, up 3.47% in the last 24 hours, after an Axios report confirmed that the US and Iran are in active discussions over a potential 45-day ceasefire, with Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey serving as mediators. Short sellers absorbed the first hit: $196 million in liquidations in 24 hours, with shorts outnumbering longs nearly 3 to 1.

The move pushes Bitcoin toward the top of the $65,000 to $73,000 war range it has been trapped in for five weeks.

Bitcoin Price Level You Need to Watch

Michaël van de Poppe just laid it out.

“If Bitcoin breaks $71K, then markets are in for a test at $80K,” he wrote on X.

The reasoning behind it: volatility is picking up, and he believes the Strait of Hormuz situation is approaching its end stage this week. In that scenario, $71K isn’t just a resistance level – it’s the trigger that opens the door to a move that would mark Bitcoin’s first clean breakout since the war began.

That single level is now the market’s most-watched threshold.

Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom: What Traders Are Reading Right Now

On-chain analyst Willy Woo published a framework laying out the three signs we need to watch for.

“Idle smoking of hopium gives way to rabid clicking of the BUY button chasing the price,” Woo wrote.

His full sequence: price first breaks the cost basis of recent investors, then passive hope gives way to genuine aggressive buying, and that demand surge pushes the cost basis from red to green on-chain. When all three align, the regime has shifted – not just the price.

Whether those conditions are met right now is the open question. One data point that’s hard to ignore: long-term holders now control roughly 80% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply.

Historically, bear market bottoms have coincided with that figure reaching 85%. The market isn’t there yet, but the direction of travel is clear.

Update: Fresh on-chain data posted today supports that direction. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost confirmed that LTH supply has turned positive again for the first time since November, with roughly 308,000 BTC now being added to long-term holder supply on average.

“Historically, this type of behavioral shift has often preceded positive price developments for Bitcoin,” he noted, while cautioning it is still too early to draw firm conclusions.

Also Read: FDIC Stablecoin Meeting April 7: GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act Are Moving This Month

Does 2026 Still Have a Shock Coming?

The ceasefire is only one piece of a broader picture that several analysts believe the market is underestimating.

If the Iran conflict ends, a new Fed chair cuts rates, the CLARITY Act passes, and TradFi begins injecting capital via stablecoins – all of which are either in motion or actively being discussed – the setup for the second half of 2026 looks structurally different from anything the current price reflects.

ETH/BTC is showing signs of gearing up for its strongest move of the cycle.

The Russell 2000, which tracks small-cap stocks and serves as one of the clearest signals for broader risk appetite, has broken out and retested – exactly the pattern it followed in the previous two cycles before a sustained move higher.

April, by this read, is the final month of corrective price action. May is where things start moving.

The Reason to Stay Cautious

This exact setup has appeared around three times since the war began. Each time, ceasefire signals lifted Bitcoin before the rally faded. Bitcoin’s technical panel currently shows a Strong Buy on Moving Averages and a Strong Sell on the Oscillator simultaneously.

The market is split. Will $71,000 settle the argument? We’ll keep you posted.

The post Bitcoin Isn’t in a Bear Market, but in a 50% Bull Market Dip appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News

“Bitcoin going to zero” searches have been trending lately, and Scott Melker says that’s exactly why he’s buying.

In a new interview on Binance’s Inside the Blockchain 100, the Wolf of All Streets made a case that most people caught in the current drawdown aren’t considering: the bear market playbook doesn’t apply to a cycle that never followed the bull market playbook.

Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Is Broken

Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $126K in October 2025 early – too early, driven by ETF flows before the market was ready. There was no altcoin season and no blowoff top. We didn’t even hit 2x the previous all-time high, when history suggested 3-4x.

“The cycle is largely broken,” Melker said. “For those who believe we’re about to get an 85 or 90% trip to the downside like previous bear markets, I would ask why we would get commensurate downside if we never got the proportional upside.”

His parallel is summer 2021, when Bitcoin dropped 55% from $65K to $28K before recovering to a new all-time high. The current drawdown from $126K sits at a similar percentage. If that pattern holds, this isn’t a bear market, but just a painful but temporary pause.

Bitcoin Bottom 2026: Four Signals Are Flashing at Once

Melker flagged four signals he watches at cycle bottoms and says all four are flashing right now.

Weekly RSI on the Bitcoin chart is at historic lows, even below 2022 levels. The Fear & Greed Index has hit its lowest reading ever. “Bitcoin going to zero” Google searches are at an all-time high. And Bitcoin is approaching the 200-week moving average, which is a level that has historically marked the bottom of every major cycle.

Also Read: Bitcoin Price Prediction: Top 3 Scenarios as Iran War Exposes Market Fragility

Crypto Rover added more context today: 44% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now held at a loss. That is a capitulation signal.

Is Altcoin Season Dead for Good?

Melker is explicit: Bitcoin bottoming doesn’t mean altcoins recover. His diagnosis for why altcoin liquidity collapsed is specific: prediction markets.

Read Now: Altcoins are Dying, But Not All of Them: Easter Weekend Crypto Watchlist

“I believe prediction markets have very little to do with Bitcoin but have largely destroyed the altcoin cycles,” he said. The gamblers who drove memecoin and altcoin cycles found a better casino. That liquidity isn’t coming back the same way.

His advice for Bitcoin specifically: automate, dollar-cost average, stop watching the price. “I’ve been buying quite a lot in the 60s.”

The silence in the market right now isn’t just fear. According to Melker, it’s what a bottom looks like before anyone admits it.