Reading view

UFC 328 predictions: Can Sean Strickland be the first to stop Khamzat Chimaev?

The time for talk is nearly over. UFC 328 is set to showcase one of the more heated rivalries in recent memory, when middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev defends his crown against former titleholder Sean Strickland.

It’s been a volatile war of words in the build to Saturday’s fight night in Newark, New Jersey. The undefeated 15-0 Chimaev has been a force of nature throughout his career. He’s met by the brash and outspoken Strickland, with whom he has a brief gym history. It might not be the “right” fight to make in the division, but it sure has generated the most buzz and interest, given the genuine hostility that’s formed between both.

At flyweight, champion Joshua Van makes his first appearance since dethroning Alexandre Pantoja via freak injury just seconds into their 2025 clash. He’ll be tested against Japanese superstar Tatsuro Taira in a thrilling battle between some of the best young talent the sport has to offer.

Funnily enough, it’s arguable that neither of the two title fights at UFC 328 are the matchups that should’ve been made in their respective divisions. With that in consideration, it hurts UFC 328’s grade ever so slightly. But it’s still a very good card.

👑 UFC 328’s lineup Crown grade: B+. 👑

Betting odds via BetMGM.

(Hassan Ahmad, Yahoo Sports)
(Hassan Ahmad, Yahoo Sports)

NEWARK, NEW JERSEY - MAY 07: (L-R) Opponents Khamzat Chimaev of Russia and Sean Strickland face off during the UFC 328 press conference at Prudential Center on May 07, 2026 in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Ed Mulholland/Zuffa LLC)
Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland are ready to go at it after a heated pre-fight press conference.
Ed Mulholland via Getty Images

185 pounds: Khamzat Chimaev (-600) vs. Sean Strickland (+425)

Chimaev has fallen into “love or hate” territory after his dominant title fight effort against Dricus du Plessis. Regardless of whether you found the performance to be entertaining, the man remains one of the most impressive dominators MMA has ever seen.

Let’s get the obvious out of the way: There is clear bad blood here, and that seems like a bigger point of contention on Strickland’s end. We’ve seen him flounder or flourish when getting emotional before fights — his encounters with Israel Adesanya and du Plessis come to mind. Strickland’s jab-teep-heavy style never wavers much, unless you back down and allow him to dictate the pace firmly.

Unfortunately for him, Chimaev allows no one to do that.

Chimaev is the pressure. While Strickland has strong takedown defense, having stuffed 76% of his career attempts in the UFC, Chimaev has proven to be a one-of-a-kind mauler. And if MMA math says anything to you, du Plessis took Strickland down seven times across their two fights; Chimaev took du Plessis down 12 times in 25 minutes.

Now, I’m not an MMA math guy, so I don’t put much stock into it in the traditional sense. But du Plessis’ grappling success is telling. Strickland really hasn’t fought many aggressive grapplers at middleweight — like, at all. Even in his stellar win over Anthony Hernandez, Hernandez stunningly avoided his usual grappling approach, which cost him the fight.

Regardless, Chimaev is in his own category. From what I’ve heard about their training sessions at Xtreme Couture, Strickland bested Chimaev down the stretch. But how much stock can be put into anything that happens in the training room? We’ve heard those stories time and time again, and both men have had plenty of time to adjust since.

Either way, Chimaev can’t be bet against until he faces serious adversity, and Strickland traditionally doesn’t possess a lethal enough style to cause an epic stoppage. Making Chimaev angry and fired up may not play into the challenger’s favor in any way he hoped.

Pick: Chimaev


125 pounds: Joshua Van (-170) vs. Tatsuro Taira (+140)

The more you think about it, there are more parallels between UFC 328’s two title fights than meets the eye. At least in terms of a basic style expression.

Van is one of the most entertaining strikers to watch at present. The dude comes to scrap and scraps very well. No one who watched it live will ever forget the Brandon Royval classic. With Taira, you have perhaps the division’s best grappler by a sizable margin, a man who innovates transitions rarely seen in an MMA enclosure. Once on top, he’s trouble in every capacity.

Like Strickland, Van hasn’t quite fought anyone like Taira. The Japanese submission artist has sharpened his striking acumen with each fight, only further opening up his ability to drag the action to the mat. Despite that, this matchup remains fairly cut-and-dried.

Taira is proving to be more capable on the feet, but if it stays there, Van picks him apart like a surgeon. On the ground, Van is in a swimming pool with a shark who will bite his head off. Not to mention, Van suffered a fight-delaying injury mere weeks ago, when they were scheduled for UFC 327. I can’t imagine that helps his chances here. Taira is that dude.

Pick: Taira


265 pounds: Alexander Volkov (-185) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+150)

Oh, the UFC heavyweight division. Why does Simon & Garfunkel always start playing when I see you pop up?

In all seriousness, this is one of the more legit contender fights we can ask for from the big boys in 2026. Waldo Cortes-Acosta has become “something” in the division, which is good to see. But Alexander Volkov, while forgotten, hasn’t taken a noticeable back step. Swing his Ciryl Gane rematch split decision toward the correct outcome — a win for Volkov — and the Russian is on a six-fight win streak.

Sure, Volkov’s win over Jailton Almeida in his last time out was cheeks, but that was more on Almeida, hence why he’s no longer on the UFC roster.

I’ve said it once, and I’ll say it again: Volkov is a sniper of the highest degree at heavyweight. When he rattles off his combos with comfort, he’s as precise and dangerous as you’d expect a near-seven-foot human to be. Cortes-Acosta has the power in his hands to stop most heavyweight. He’ll just need to overcome Volkov’s reach. At this point, the Russian just feels like the ultimate spoiler, which is oh-so-heavyweight for a division that desperately needs any shred of new life.

Pick: Volkov


NEW YORK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 15: Sean Brady enters the Octagon in a welterweight fight during the UFC 322 event at Madison Square Garden on November 15, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC)
Sean Brady seeks redemption after his tough loss to Michael Morales.
Cooper Neill via Getty Images

170 pounds: Sean Brady (-170) vs. Joaquin Buckley (+140)

Between the heavyweight fight and this one, UFC 328 has two would-be Fight Night main events on it. Don’t deny it. You know it’s true.

Joaquin Buckley was brutally exposed in his most recent fight against Kamaru Usman in Atlanta. Nearly one full year later, he has to overcome yet another wildly impressive wrestler in Sean Brady.

Unless Buckley has gone deep into the CaucasusMountains to work exclusively on his wrestling, I’m not sold he can.

Brady is also looking to rebound here, after a tough first-round stoppage to the surging phenom Michael Morales. Buckley is a stark contrast to Morales in every way, but if that fight proved one thing, it’s that Brady can be caught and might have a more questionable chin than most realized. Buckley packs power, that’s no secret. But like the top two fights at UFC 328, he’ll need to keep Brady off of him. A grueling 15 minutes await.

Pick: Brady


155 pounds: King Green (-325) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+260)

Alright. I don’t usually flip-flop much when handing in my picks early for the staff picks above. But for this one, I did.

Sorry, Jeremy Stephens.

Though I do still find this matchup to be closer than perhaps the oddsmakers indicate, that recent King Green finish of Daniel Zellhuber is too much to overlook. And yes, Zellhuber may not be all he was cracked up to be, but it’s still impressive for a veteran like Green.

Stephens hasn’t been very fortunate in MMA since returning to the UFC. See the Mason Jones fight, for example. He put on a banger of an effort, but the wrestling of Jones was just too much. Don’t expect Green to go for any takedowns here.

Now I’m just talking myself into picking Stephens again.

I’ll resist. Green is the cleaner technician of the two on the feet, always carrying himself with confidence, and, most importantly, he’s trained consistently in MMA, whereas Stephens has been moonlighting in bare-knuckle boxing.

Pick: Green


Preliminary Notes

Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Alvarez is an awesome fight. Like, Fight of the Night is written all over that one. Welcome to welterweight, Alvarez — fere’s your former Bellator champion challenge. Don’t miss it, folks.

Jim Miller continues to extend his UFC record for most fights. That’s always fun. Meanwhile, Ateba Gautier is once again a massive favorite.

Top to bottom, the UFC 328 prelims have someone worth watching in every fight.

Quick picks:

  • Ateba Gautier (-1400) def. Osman Diaz (+800)

  • Yaroslav Amosov (-190) def. Joel Álvarez (+155)

  • Grant Dawson (-185) def. Mateusz Rębecki (+150)

  • Jared Gordon (-300) def. Jim Miller (+240)

  • Roman Kopylov (+155) def. Marco Tulio (-190)

  • Pat Sabatini (-220) def. William Gomis (+180)

  • Baisangur Susurkaev (-750) def. Djorden Santos (+525)

  • Jose Ochoa (-185) def. Clayton Carpenter (+150)

Luke Rockhold: 'Pressure' from 'Chechen ruler' affected Khamzat Chimaev's performance in UFC title win

Former UFC middleweight champion Luke Rockhold is growing quite familiar with his fellow 185-pound titleholder, Khamzat Chimaev, ahead of UFC 328.

Santo Studio in Newport Beach, California, has unexpectedly become the gathering spot for the unique trio of Chimaev, Rockhold and UFC lightweight contender Arman Tsarukyan. Ahead of his Saturday’s title defense against Sean Strickland in Newark, New Jersey, Chimaev put in the work with Rockhold, who is no stranger to elite-level teammates from his days at American Kickboxing Academy.

On Tuesday’s episode of “The Ariel Helwani Show,” Rockhold said he’d rank Chimaev, 32, alongside the best training partners he’s ever had, including names like Khabib Nurmagomedov, Daniel Cormier, Cain Velasquez and Islam Makhachev.

"He's special,” Rockhold told Uncrowned of Chimaev. “He hits very hard. He's so unique in his realm, so he's going to stick to what he does best, but if he can relax — and I think last time out [against Dricus du Plessis], there was a lot of pressure on him to win. This time, I think you'll see a lot more free Khamzat. And hopefully, he's get those takedowns. And if he loses a few takedowns, he can show his stand-up, because he's very dangerous on the feet. It's just a matter of putting it all together and relaxing to the process.

“I think that's the biggest key. If he loses some takedowns, he's gotta relax. If he relaxes among that process, he's going to get more takedowns and be effective on the feet. He just can't rush it."

Chimaev’s championship victory over Dricus du Plessis in August was one of the most one-sided performances ever seen from a UFC title challenger. Yet it still drew criticism throughout the community as a showing long on dominance but short on entertainment.

Rockhold chalked that up to the situation more than the matchup.

“I think the pressure was from some Chechen ruler [Ramzan Kadyrov] and then the people behind him — there’s a lot of pressure,” Rockhold said. “To go back [to Chechnya], who knows what it’d be like if he didn’t bring that title back home. So he is the champion now and I think he’s got a chance [at UFC 328] to go out there and do his thing.”

Against Strickland, Rockhold expects a different approach.

In his own experience, Rockhold was once booked to fight Strickland in 2021 until withdrawing due to a back injury. They first met in Rockhold’s former gym, RVCA, where he immediately soured on Strickland for being an overly-aggressive training partner.

"Sean is truly a piece of s***," Rockhold said.

"He's just not a good person. ... He has no regards for human beings, especially on somebody else's turf. So I just don't appreciate people like that, and people like that who never have gotten over their childhood traumas, seemingly, who continually voice — it’s an obvious portrayal of what that man is and what’s he’s been through, and what he does face and what he doesn't face."

Although Rockhold couldn’t care less for Strickland the person, he admits that his fellow former UFC middleweight champion does possess great talent. So much talent that he believes Chimaev won’t face much resistance beyond this weekend’s title matchup.

"He's the most dangerous guy [for Chimaev] at middleweight and light heavyweight,” Rockhold said of Strickland. “I don't think anyone stops Khamzat at light heavyweight. Even heavyweight, I think his skills are suited. Sean is the toughest test for Khamzat, for sure. He's effective."

Strickland has made the build to UFC 328 excessively personal in recent weeks. Since they first trained together at Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas, Strickland has gone on to call Chimaev a boring fighter and slander his character, while taking shots at the champion’s affiliation with Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov.

Speaking to the media last week, Strickland warned Chimaev that he’d shoot him or anyone on his team if approached in a threatening manner before UFC 328.

Assuming that threat doesn’t faze Chimaev, Rockhold shared a surprising tidbit. While he was unable to confirm it as fact, he’s heard that Kadryrov might attend UFC 328, adding another layer of tension to the already volatile situation between the fighters.

"Sean is not a real threat in the world of what [Chimaev] has dealt with and who he deals with,” Rockhold said. “It sounds like we might have Kadyrov in his corner, so I think he's pretty safe within his mindset. And we'll see how it goes. This fight week is going to be interesting. We’ll see how the interactions go, but I think Sean was saying he's going to bring a gun. I'm not sure if you can bring a gun out there in New Jersey, but they better check it."

❌