As the 2026 NHL Draft approaches, Gavin McKenna is drawing attention as the projected No. 1 overall pick. Amid the growing excitement, one prominent prospect analyst believes the Toronto Maple Leafs should waste no time bringing him to the NHL.

Speaking on The Sheet with Jeff Marek, Daily Faceoff prospect analyst Steven Ellis pushed back against suggestions that McKenna should spend another season at Penn State after being selected.

“Not at all,” Ellis said when asked whether McKenna should return to college. “… You see what he did at the World Juniors, you see his elite playmaking, his elite thought process out there. He should be in the NHL next year. … I don’t have any doubts in my mind that he’s going to be an impactful guy right away in the NHL.”

Toronto is widely expected to use the first overall pick on McKenna after winning the draft lottery. The selection would give the franchise a potential cornerstone player following a disastrous 2025-26 season that saw the team finish last in the Atlantic Division.

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Ellis went even further, suggesting McKenna could immediately fill a major organizational need.

“I think you could put him on the top line,” Ellis said. “He can kind of fill that playmaking role that was gone after Mitch Marner left. And maybe that finds a way to get that spark out of Matthews.”

Why Toronto’s environment could accelerate Gavin McKenna’s development?

McKenna’s freshman season at Penn State strengthened his standing as the consensus top prospect in the draft class. The dynamic winger produced 51 points in 35 games and dominated during the second half of the season, recording 33 points in his final 19 contests.

Ellis believes Toronto’s veteran leadership would make the transition easier. He pointed to players such as Auston Matthews and John Tavares as ideal mentors for a young star entering a high-pressure market.

“I think with McKenna going and playing in the NHL, you’re not expecting, you don’t necessarily need him to go out and win the Calder Trophy, ” Ellis said. “It’s actually quite hard for a first-year player to do it…

“But I think when you’re looking at it here, go and learn from those guys who’ve been through the journey. Matthews was obviously a very highly sought prospect. John Tavares was an exceptional status player. They know how to handle the pressure.”

The argument makes sense. Toronto is not rebuilding from the ground up despite its poor finish. The organization still has elite talent led by Matthews and is searching for ways to quickly return to contention.

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McKenna’s elite vision, playmaking ability, and hockey IQ could address a major offensive gap created by Marner’s departure. While expecting him to become a Calder Trophy favorite immediately may be unrealistic, the projection that he can contribute in a top-six role is far less bold than it sounds.

For a Maple Leafs team looking to reset its trajectory, McKenna may be ready to help sooner rather than later.

With less than three weeks remaining before the 2026 NHL Draft, projected No. 1 overall pick Gavin McKenna appears increasingly comfortable with the possibility of becoming the next cornerstone of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Speaking at the NHL Scouting Combine in Buffalo, McKenna discussed the prospect of joining Toronto after the Maple Leafs secured the first overall selection despite entering the lottery with just an 8.5% chance.

“Going to a Canadian market would be pretty special,” McKenna said, according to Toronto Sun reporter Terry Koshan. “The situation the Leafs are in right now, it’s pretty crazy that they got the first overall pick, their team is probably going to be fighting for the playoffs next year. I’d be pretty fortunate to go there.”

The 18-year-old enters the draft as NHL Central Scouting’s top-ranked North American skater. He is coming off a standout freshman season at Penn State, where he recorded 15 goals and 51 points in 35 games while earning recognition as a Hobey Baker top-10 finalist.

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McKenna has also spent time speaking with distant cousin Connor Bedard about handling the pressure that comes with being viewed as a franchise-changing prospect.

“We’ve gone through similar things with media and the pressure,” McKenna said to the media. “He’s always a brain I like to go to… He kinda just tells me to trust the process and stay confident. Sometimes it’s hard, but hockey is a big confidence game.”

Why the Maple Leafs could be an ideal landing spot?

McKenna’s comments reflect a unique situation that rarely exists for a first-overall pick. Most top prospects join rebuilding organizations expected to spend years climbing the standings. Toronto’s outlook is different.

The Maple Leafs are coming off a disappointing 32-36-14 season, but management believes the roster remains capable of a quick turnaround. Auston Matthews is expected to return healthy after a major knee injury, William Nylander remains a top offensive weapon, and new general manager John Chayka has more than $22 million in salary-cap space to reshape the roster.

So, McKenna would not be asked to carry the franchise immediately. Instead, he could develop alongside established stars while contributing to a team pushing for a playoff return.

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That setup could accelerate his transition to the NHL. Elite prospects often face overwhelming expectations when they enter rebuilding environments. In Toronto, McKenna would still face intense media scrutiny, but the on-ice burden would be shared.

Unless a surprise trade emerges, the Maple Leafs appear positioned to add the draft’s most dynamic prospect.