The Houston Astros had their dynasty. They won two World Series, made two others, and had an impressive streak of reaching the ALCS. This team was one of the best in MLB for nearly a decade; however, in the last few years, they’ve been teetering on the edge of holding on or beginning their descent. The biggest reason as to why they are still relevant is Yordan Alvarez. And that is no different in 2026. In fact, Yordan Alvarez should be the 2026 American League MVP if everything continues on its current path.

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Aaron Judge Is the Main Competition

Standing in his way is likely just one man. That man is Aaron Judge, the back-to-back American League MVP winner.

Judge is having another excellent season and remains firmly in the MVP conversation. However, what he is not doing right now is matching the offensive dominance of Yordan Alvarez in 2026.

There is still plenty of baseball left to be played, and the race could look completely different by September. But through the first two months of the season, Alvarez has built a compelling case to be considered the frontrunner.

Carrying an Injury-Riddled Astros Team

Say what you want about the Astros, but the injury problems they have dealt with over the past few years have been remarkable.

This season alone, Jeremy Peña and Jake Meyers have both spent time on the injured list. Carlos Correa is out for the season, while Jose Altuve and Yainer Diaz are currently dealing with significant absences.

Despite all of that, Houston remains just 2.5 games out of first place in the American League West and 2.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. The biggest reason? Alvarez continues showing up every day.

Alvarez’s Numbers Are Simply Ridiculous

Alvarez recently posted back-to-back two-homer games during a critical series against the Texas Rangers, further strengthening his MVP case. While Houston has been cautious with his workload, including limited appearances in the outfield, his offensive production has been nothing short of spectacular.

Through 57 games, Alvarez is hitting .307 with 20 home runs, 39 RBIs, and 37 runs scored. The underlying metrics are somehow even more impressive. He owns a .346 ISO, an 18.8% barrel rate, and a 53.3% hard-hit rate.

Perhaps most remarkably, his expected numbers suggest there could be even more production coming. Alvarez’s .349 expected batting average exceeds his actual .307 mark, while his .754 expected slugging percentage dwarfs his already incredible .654 slugging percentage.

If that’s not an MVP résumé through two months, it’s hard to imagine what is.

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