Have the recent Buccaneers been a success? Over the last four years, the team has three division titles, and in the fourth, it tied for the division lead and lost out on a tiebreaker. On the other hand, that amounts to a collective 35-33 record over four years, peaking at 10-7, and a 1-3 playoff record. They crushed the Eagles 32-9 in their playoff win, but they also lost playoff games by 17, 8 and 3. Baker Mayfield replaced a retiring Tom Brady and made two Pro Bowls, but he’s also reached double-digit interceptions all three years as the Tampa Bay starter. Chris Godwin Jr. went from consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to a total of 936 over two injury-plagued years. Mike Evans went from “easily clearing 1,000 yards” to “barely reaching 1,000 yards” to getting hurt and missing half the year and not getting to 1,000. Bucky Irving was an electric rookie running back, then regressed in almost every way in Year 2. Emeka Egbuka was a runaway success as a rookie receiver and then all but disappeared in the second half. So the question entering 2026 is whether the team is getting worse and losing its quasi-dynastic grip on the NFC South, whether the grip hasn’t really existed other than being the best of a bad lot in the division, or whether four straight division titles and five straight playoff appearances before 2025 is the real thing and the Buccaneers are ready to be just fine again.

2026 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sleeper: Baker Mayfield, QB

Mayfield has been the quarterback in Tampa Bay for three years now. In fantasy, he’s finished as the QB10, QB3 and QB12. He’s right now being drafted as the QB20. I’m done. Need more? OK. Through Week 6 last year, Mayfield was the QB4, averaging 21.1 fantasy points per game. He was getting talk as a potential MVP. (Did I write the article linked there? Yes. Does that make it less true? No.) And then Mike Evans got hurt, Chris Godwin Jr. got re-hurt, the offensive line couldn’t get whole, and Mayfield himself hurt his knee. He had averaged almost 4 carries a game through Week 6, then had exactly 0 carries in Weeks 7-9. So, to recap: When Mayfield was healthy and had a reasonably full complement of weapons, he was a top-five fantasy quarterback and an MVP candidate. When he, his receivers and his line were banged up, he wasn’t. Maybe “MVP candidate” isn’t his outlook in 2026, but “QB20” isn’t either.

Bust: Bucky Irving, RB

After 1,122 yards and 8 rushing scores as a rookie in 2024, Irving fell to 588 and a single score on the ground last year. Yes, he went from 17 games to 10, but he also went from 5.4 yards per carry to 3.4. Per FTN Stats & Charting, he went from a +6.4% DVOA as a rookie to -23.8% last year, second worst among 52 players with at least 100 carries, better than only Alvin Kamara’s -24.6%. Rachaad White is gone now, but the Buccaneers brought in Kenneth Gainwell this offseason and retained Sean Tucker. Gainwell is probably not quite as good a receiving back as White (but that’s up for debate), but he’s definitely better on the ground. Irving finds himself in a committee now (whenever he’s healthy, which is a whole other concern), which doesn’t bode well for a guy without much in the way of receiving chops. And yet despite that, he’s still going as a top-20 back in early ADP? That’s an absurd overdraft.

Bold Prediction: Ted Hurst Leads the Bucs in Receiving TDs

Mike Evans led Buccaneers wide receivers in receiving touchdowns in 10 of his 12 seasons, only missing in 2019 and his injury-marred 2025. And the reason for that was pretty clear: He’s a giant. OK, he’s 6-foot-5, 231 pounds, but still, big dude. The Bucs’ primary receivers for 2026 are Egbuka (6-1, 205), Godwin (6-1, 209), Jalen McMillan (6-1, 192), Tez Johnson (5-10, 165) … and rookie Ted Hurst (6-4, 206). Even with the first four on the roster already, the Bucs used their third-round pick in April on Hurst, and with Evans having departed in free agency, it’s easy to see them eying him as their red-zone and goal-line replacement — the next receivers off the board after Hurst were listed at 5-10, 6-1, 5-9, 6-2, 5-9 and 5-11, so they clearly were finding the tall guy. Egbuka and Godwin will get plenty of yards, but expect Hurst to lead the way in receiving scores.