OpenAI’s ad revenue forecast is on pace to miss its 2030 target by 90%, according to Emarketer.

OpenAI projected $2.5 billion in ad revenue this year and $100 billion by 2030. Emarketer estimates the entire U.S. market for standalone chatbot ads will generate less than $1 billion this year and $5.41 billion by 2030.

OpenAI’s target. OpenAI began testing ChatGPT ads in February. By April, the company projected that ad revenue would grow to $100 billion within five years. But that forecast is larger than Emarketer’s 2030 estimate for the full U.S. chatbot ad market.

What Emarketer measured. Emarketer’s estimate covers standalone chatbots in the U.S., including ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, Google AI Mode and Amazon Alexa for Shopping, formerly Rufus. The research firm’s forecast puts the 2030 market ceiling at $5.41 billion, far below OpenAI’s target for its ad business alone.

Why we care. Chatbot ads are still a small market, despite growing interest in AI search and shopping. The gap between OpenAI’s target and Emarketer’s forecast shows ChatGPT Ads have a long way to go.

Assumptions vs. reality? OpenAI’s forecast assumes the company will capture search ad budgets at scale, dominate a mature chatbot ad market, and outperform every ad format in history, Adweek reported. Emarketer’s data points to a much smaller market.

OpenAI is discontinuing ChatGPT Atlas, its standalone desktop browser. The browser-based AI features are moving to the new ChatGPT desktop app, which includes ChatGPT Work, OpenAI’s work-focused agent, alongside ChatGPT Codex.

The end of Atlas. James Sun of OpenAI confirmed on X Atlas will be deprecated Aug. 9.

• “The current targeted date for deprecation is 8/9, and we’ll share more information in the upcoming days both in-app and via email,” Sun said.

One desktop app. The new ChatGPT desktop app becomes OpenAI’s primary desktop product with built-in browser capabilities. Instead of maintaining a separate AI browser, OpenAI is combining browsing, work-agent features, and Codex into a single app.

Chrome users can keep Chrome. OpenAI also offers a ChatGPT and Codex extension for Chrome. That lets Chrome users access ChatGPT in their existing browser without switching to an OpenAI browser.

Why we care. OpenAI is moving AI browsing from a standalone browser into the main ChatGPT app, where more users can ask questions, research brands, and complete tasks. That gives ChatGPT another way to shape discovery beyond traditional search results.

Catch up quick. Atlas will be retired as a standalone browser less than a year after its launch.

• ChatGPT Atlas launched on Mac in October.
• OpenAI later released a dedicated Codex app and added an in-app browser in April.
• Those features are now being folded into the new ChatGPT desktop app.

ChatGPT Ads has sent out an email to advertisers announcing new ChatGPT Ads Manager updates and ChatGPT Ads experience updates. The updates include custom audiences, new overview tab, suggested ad drafts, as well as a refreshed ad card format and expanding ads in Japan and South Korea.

Here is what is new:

• Custom audiences: Upload lists with 25K or more users to include or suppress audiences from campaigns. Bid multipliers can also be set for audiences at the ad group level. We covered this in more detail over here earlier this week.
• Overview tab: You can monitor account health, review recommended tasks that can help improve campaign performance, and analyze key performance metrics in a larger, more flexible trend chart.
• Suggested ad drafts: If your campaign could benefit from broader content coverage to optimize delivery, you may see the option to select ‘Add new ad’ in your campaign view. This feature uses existing website metadata to prefill an ad draft with an image, title, and description for you to review, edit, and assign to a campaign and ad group. It does not generate new copy or imagery with AI. We covered this in more detail over here earlier this week.
• ChatGPT Ads are live in Japan and South Korea: Campaigns can now target users in Japan and South Korea, expanding reach for advertisers doing business in those markets.
• Refreshed static ad card format: OpenAI is starting to roll out a refreshed static ad card format across web and mobile that is more compact and easier to read, with larger visual elements. This actually rolled out in late June. Here is the before and after:

Why we care. ChatGPT Ads are new, and OpenAI continues to add new features, expand to new markets and test new ad formats and treatements.

Make sure you stay on top of these changes, experiment and continue to fine-tune your ad creatives and campaigns.