Bitcoin (BTC) is showing renewed strength, reclaiming the $115,000 level after weeks of volatility and uncertainty. Bulls are attempting to build momentum for a potential impulse move higher, aiming to confirm a sustained bullish structure after the recent consolidation phase.

On-chain data continues to reveal a clear and repeating pattern tied to investor behavior and market cycles. Historically, when the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit climbs above 95%, the market tends to enter an overheated phase, often leading to sharp corrections. These pullbacks serve as natural cooling periods, resetting sentiment and liquidity before the next major leg up.

Interestingly, each correction cycle has shown consistent bottoming zones around the 75% threshold, where long-term holders reaccumulate and market confidence begins to rebuild. More specifically, data highlights profit supply lows of 73% in September 2024, 76% in April 2024, and a recent rebound from 81%, signaling a potential mid-cycle recovery phase.

Bitcoin Supply in Profit Rises to 83.6% — Momentum Rebuilds Ahead of Key Threshold

According to top analyst Darkfost, the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit has started to climb again, currently standing at 83.6%. This steady rise indicates that a growing share of Bitcoin holders are once again sitting on unrealized gains — a trend that often reflects improving sentiment and renewed market confidence.

Darkfost notes that this level can be interpreted as encouraging, suggesting that investors are willing to hold their BTC instead of realizing profits, anticipating further upside in the near term. Historically, such behavior has been characteristic of mid-cycle recovery phases, when fear starts to fade and accumulation resumes across both retail and institutional segments.

This stage of the cycle is considered healthy for rebuilding momentum, as it allows the market to stabilize after large corrections. Holders who previously capitulated often reenter at this stage, while long-term participants strengthen their positions, creating a more resilient market structure.

However, Darkfost cautions that once the supply in profit surpasses 95%, it typically signals overheated market conditions — a point where euphoria tends to replace rational conviction. In such phases, Bitcoin historically faces increased volatility and sharp corrections as overleveraged traders and short-term speculators take profits.

BTC Retests $115K Resistance: Bulls Regain Momentum

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing renewed bullish momentum, trading around $115,443 and successfully reclaiming key short-term support levels after weeks of consolidation. The daily chart highlights a strong recovery structure, with BTC breaking above both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, signaling a shift in short-term market sentiment.

The next critical test lies at $117,500, a historical resistance zone that previously rejected multiple attempts in September and early October. A clear breakout and daily close above this level would likely confirm an impulse continuation toward $120K–$125K, opening the door for a more sustained uptrend.

Momentum indicators suggest strengthening buying pressure, while the recent bounce from the 200-day moving average near $107K underscores the market’s resilience. This level acted as a springboard for the current rally, aligning with the broader pattern of accumulation seen on-chain, where investor profitability is rising steadily.

However, BTC remains within a range-bound structure, and rejection at $117.5K could trigger short-term consolidation back toward $111K–$112K. Overall, Bitcoin’s technical outlook appears constructive — if the bulls can sustain above $115K and confirm strength above $117.5K, the market could transition into a new bullish leg, supported by improving investor sentiment and on-chain health.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Japan has officially stepped into the regulated stablecoin era with the launch of JPYC EX, the country’s first fully licensed digital yen under the revised Payment Services Act. This milestone marks a pivotal moment for Japan’s financial sector, bridging traditional banking infrastructure with the Web3 ecosystem.

Building on earlier versions of JPYC, the new JPYC EX is designed to serve as a compliant, yen-backed stablecoin connecting the nation’s banking system to blockchain-based commerce, DeFi applications, and cross-border payments. With full legal authorization and asset backing, it positions the yen as a future cornerstone in global digital finance.

According to CryptoQuant, the total stablecoin market capitalization has now surpassed $150 billion, forming the backbone of liquidity for crypto markets, DeFi protocols, and global payments. Analysts from Citi and Bloomberg project that this figure could expand to between $1.6 and $4 trillion by 2030. Within that rapid growth, JPYC is forecasted to capture roughly 2% of the market, reaching a valuation of around $70 billion.

A Fully Regulated Digital Yen Bridging Japan’s Finance and Web3

What distinguishes JPYC EX from other stablecoins is its combination of regulatory clarity, asset backing, and technical versatility. Domestic bank deposits and Japanese government bonds fully collateralize each token, ensuring complete transparency and stability. This structure makes JPYC EX one of the world’s most legally robust stablecoins. A benchmark for compliance-driven innovation in digital finance.

Built on Ethereum, Polygon, and Avalanche, JPYC EX provides instant yen transfers with near-zero fees. Making it a practical tool for businesses and individuals alike. It supports commerce, payroll, peer-to-peer payments, and DeFi applications, offering the efficiency of blockchain without sacrificing legal or operational safeguards.

JPYC EX also aligns closely with Japan’s digital transformation strategy, which aims to merge traditional finance with emerging Web3 systems. By serving as a settlement layer for e-commerce platforms, NFT marketplaces, and cross-border transactions, the stablecoin enables instant yen transfers across Asia, lowering costs and increasing accessibility for international trade.

Looking ahead, analysts forecast JPYC’s market capitalization could reach $70 billion by 2030. It represents roughly 2% of the global stablecoin market. This growth potential underscores Japan’s ambition to establish the digital yen as a key pillar of the decentralized global economy. With its blend of regulatory trust, technological precision, and global reach, JPYC EX may redefine how national currencies operate in the Web3 era.

Stablecoin Dominance Shows a Cooling Phase After Recent Surge

The chart shows that stablecoin market dominance currently sits around 8.31%, following a sharp rise earlier in October that pushed the ratio above 9%. This level often signals heightened demand for liquidity and safety, as traders move capital into stable assets amid market uncertainty.

Over the past few months, dominance has steadily climbed from the 7.3%–7.5% range, reflecting a cautious sentiment as Bitcoin and major altcoins face selling pressure. However, the recent pullback suggests that some funds are beginning to rotate back into risk assets, a potential early sign of market stabilization.

Technically, the dominance remains above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a broader uptrend in liquidity positioning. If this level holds, it may serve as a buffer during continued volatility. Conversely, a sustained drop below 8% could signal that traders are redeploying capital into crypto assets, possibly fueling short-term rallies.

Stablecoin dominance remains elevated — a sign that market participants still prefer holding dry powder. Until dominance begins a more decisive decline, this cautious stance will likely persist, underscoring the market’s fragile balance between risk-off sentiment and the readiness for re-entry into volatile assets.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum is struggling to push above the $4,000 level, as market sentiment remains uncertain and volatility keeps investors cautious. Despite several attempts, bulls have failed to sustain momentum, suggesting hesitation at key resistance levels. However, new on-chain data is drawing attention to potentially large-scale liquidity moves that could influence Ethereum’s next direction.

According to Lookonchain, an Ethereum OG holding 736,316 ETH (worth approximately $2.89 billion) recently deposited $500 million USDT into the vaults launched by ConcreteXYZ and Stable, just before their official announcement. This has sparked significant curiosity across the crypto community, as the transaction appears strategically timed and could signal preparation for major yield or liquidity activity.

ConcreteXYZ is a next-generation liquidity protocol designed to connect institutional and DeFi capital through tokenized vaults. It allows users to allocate stablecoins and crypto assets into yield-bearing strategies while maintaining full transparency and composability within the Ethereum ecosystem.

The whale’s massive deposit — preceding the public reveal — suggests potential insider positioning or high-conviction participation in these vaults. Such large inflows often act as early indicators of shifting liquidity dynamics, particularly when aligned with projects positioned at the intersection of DeFi infrastructure and institutional finance.

Whale Dominance in Aave and Stablecoin Vaults Raises Strategic Questions

According to Lookonchain, the same Ethereum OG who recently interacted with ConcreteXYZ and Stable deposited 300,000 ETH into Aave and borrowed $500 million USDT. Out of the total $775 million USDT deposited across the new vaults, this single whale accounted for 64.5% of the total liquidity, underscoring their dominant role in this sudden market activity.

This move represents a sophisticated on-chain strategy often seen among experienced whales. By supplying ETH as collateral on Aave — one of the largest decentralized lending protocols — and borrowing USDT against it, the whale effectively unlocks liquidity without selling their Ethereum holdings. This allows them to deploy large sums into yield opportunities, such as the newly launched ConcreteXYZ vaults, while retaining exposure to ETH’s long-term upside.

Such a concentration of liquidity from one entity can have several implications for the broader market. On one hand, it highlights growing confidence among deep-pocketed players in the DeFi ecosystem’s stability and profitability. On the other hand, it raises questions about market influence and systemic risk, since a single participant holds such a large portion of capital inflows.

If this borrowed liquidity is used for yield farming or strategic positioning rather than short-term speculation, it could reinforce Ethereum’s ecosystem fundamentals by increasing DeFi activity and on-chain engagement. However, if market conditions deteriorate and collateral values fall, liquidations could amplify volatility.

In essence, this massive Aave–ConcreteXYZ transaction demonstrates how whales leverage DeFi infrastructure to maintain dominance, optimize liquidity, and influence ecosystem-wide capital flows — making this one of the most significant on-chain moves of the quarter.

Ethereum Rebounds but Faces Resistance Near $4,000

Ethereum’s price is currently trading around $3,964, showing signs of a modest rebound after recent volatility. The daily chart indicates that ETH has been attempting to recover from its October lows. But remains trapped below key resistance at $4,000–$4,200, where both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages converge. This is a zone that often acts as a strong rejection area during consolidation phases.

Despite short-term gains, Ethereum’s broader structure still reflects uncertainty. The 200-day moving average, sitting near $3,200, continues to provide strong dynamic support, preventing a deeper breakdown. However, the inability to break above $4,000 has left the asset vulnerable to renewed selling pressure if momentum weakens.

Volume patterns suggest limited conviction among buyers, as each rally attempt has been met with fading strength. To regain a sustainable bullish outlook, Ethereum needs a decisive close above $4,200. This would signal a potential continuation toward $4,500 and higher. Conversely, failure to reclaim that range could lead to a retest of $3,600–$3,500.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com