As the new month began, the Bitcoin price opened on a downward trend, slipping below its consolidation range amid rising uncertainty and bearish sentiment in the market. Nevertheless, analysts are identifying a collection of indicators suggesting that a bullish resurgence for the cryptocurrency could be on the horizon.

What’s Fueling BTC’s Potential Surge This November?

According to experts at The Bull Theory, November is poised to be the most bullish month of the year for Bitcoin, and the supporting numbers are quite compelling. Historically, November has been one of the strongest months not only for US equities but also for the Bitcoin price. 

For stocks, it consistently ranks as a top-performing month, while Bitcoin has historically recorded some of its most significant rallies during this time, averaging gains between 40% and 42%. What sets this November apart, however, are the underlying factors at play.

One of the primary catalysts identified by the analysts is the anticipated end of the US government shutdown, which is expected to conclude this month. While this may seem like a political issue, its financial implications are substantial. 

They assert that the resumption of government spending means “billions of dollars” will start flowing back into contractors, projects, and public sectors. This return to fiscal spending acts as a mini liquidity injection into the economy. 

Historically, such movements of money have had a positive effect on risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies, as capital begins to rotate from the real economy into the financial system.

Another significant factor is the planned ramp-up of corporate buybacks. Within the next few weeks, many major companies are expected to restart their buyback programs. 

This creates new demand in equities at a time when liquidity is improving, which historically has pushed stock indices higher. Given that cryptocurrencies often track global liquidity cycles, this corporate-driven demand could similarly benefit the crypto market.

Bitcoin Price To Reach $160,000?

Additionally, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has quietly re-entered the scene, as evidenced by a spike in daily overnight repo loans, which reached $29.4 billion—the highest level in nearly five years. 

This significant borrowing indicates that banks are short on dollars and are relying heavily on the Fed. Such activity typically signals stress in the short-term funding market. 

Historically, when repo activity surges, the Fed tends to inject liquidity to stabilize the situation. This influx of capital does not remain isolated within the banking system; it tends to flow through markets, lifting equities and eventually benefiting cryptocurrencies once confidence is restored.

Moreover, the US Treasury’s General Account (TGA) balance has surged close to $1 trillion, sitting approximately $150 to $200 billion above normal levels. This capital is currently idle, but once government spending resumes following the shutdown, it is likely to begin circulating again. 

If the Bitcoin price performance this November mirrors its historical averages, the analysts anticipate a potential rally of around 40%. Such an increase could see the Bitcoin price reaching the $150,000 to $160,000 range. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

November has kicked off on a negative note for crypto prices, with Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dipping toward $105,000 on Monday. This decline has sparked a renewed sense of bearish sentiment among investors, and experts caution that conditions could worsen in the coming days.

November Deadline Approaches

Market expert CryptoBirb recently expressed concerns on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), noting that the market is already ten days into a bearish cycle. According to CryptoBirb, diving into on-chain data, the more alarming the picture appears.

CryptoBirb’s analysis begins with cycle peak data: it has been 1,078 days since the low in November 2022, which is 101.2% of the crypto cycle complete. Additionally, it has been 563 days since the last Halving, with 45 days remaining within the typical 518 to 580-day peak range. 

Alarmingly, the anticipated rally leading to this peak has not materialized, and there are only 17 days left before the window for a peak closes on November 20. Missed breakouts during this time frame have signaled the end of previous bullish cycles.

When comparing the current situation to the 2017 cycle, it is noted that Bitcoin reached its peak on December 17, 2017, 1,068 days after its low. With BTC now 1,078 days into the current cycle, the chances of a late top are diminishing with each passing day that the cryptocurrency remains below $113,000. 

From a performance standpoint, Bitcoin is down 16% from its all-time high of $126,200 and has only gained 8.2% year-to-date. The market’s leading crypto has faced repeated rejections near the $113,000 to $114,000 range and is currently trading below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of $109,882. 

Historically, November typically sees an average gain of 17.5%, with positive performance in 10 out of the last 15 years. However, the expert points that when November begins in the red, it often indicates that the cycle is already shifting.

Potential Bullish Factors Amid Ongoing Crypto Concerns

Adding to this bearish sentiment, DeFi researcher DeFiIgnas has outlined several factors complicating the crypto market’s trajectory. These include what he calls “the speculative nature of the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble,” the failure of bullish news to invigorate crypto prices, uncertainty surrounding entities that collapsed after the October 10 crash, and the cyclical nature of the market. 

Additionally, the selling activity from long-term holders and negative crypto exchange-traded funds (ETF) flows contribute to the prevailing concerns.

Despite these challenges, DeFiIgnas also identified some potential bullish factors that could foster recovery instead of further declines. 

These include easing liquidity and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), a lack of euphoria in the crypto space, slow but steady institutional adoption, and the potential passage of a US crypto market structure bill. 

Historically strong performance in the fourth quarter, stablecoin supply at all-time highs, and a recent US trade deal with China could also provide a counterbalance to the prevailing bearish sentiment.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Seychelles-based cryptocurrency exchange MEXC found itself in the midst of controversy on Friday as users on social media site X (formerly Twitter) called for immediate withdrawals amid speculation about the exchange’s potential bankruptcy. 

What Happened At MEXC?

Market analyst J.A. Maartun was among the first to draw attention to the situation, sharing a chart on social media that indicated a significant spike in withdrawal transactions around midday.

Researcher Hanzo also shed light on the unfolding drama, revealing the plight of a user known as “The White Whale.” This individual claimed that his account was suspended despite engaging in trading without the use of bots or APIs, leaving him unable to access his funds, which he estimated at between $3 million and $5 million. 

The White Whale alleged that customer support was unresponsive and that when he engaged with Cecilia Hsueh, MEXC’s new Chief Strategy Officer, he was pressured to admit to breaking the rules to have his funds released, a claim he firmly denied.

Cecilia later responded that their conversation should have remained private and accused The White Whale of misrepresenting the facts. MEXC subsequently announced its intention to take legal action against him for alleged misinformation. 

However, as the situation escalated, a wave of support emerged from the cryptocurrency community, including notable figures like ZachXBT, as many users reported similar issues with MEXC. 

This collective response led to warnings on social media urging users to withdraw their funds immediately, fueling the growing unrest.

CSO Issues Apology

In a rapid development, Cecilia issued an apology and confirmed that The White Whale’s withdrawal had been processed. She stated:

We fucked up. We apologize to @TheWhiteWhaleV2, and his money is already released. He can claim it at any time. I messed up in communicating with him. I got emotional, and I shouldn’t have. Since I joined MEXC 2 months ago I’ve been fighting behind the scenes to get MEXC to change. We grew really fast—a few years ago, we were a very small exchange, but given our current scale, our risk, operations, and PR teams have not kept up.

She noted that MEXC has experienced rapid growth, but its operational and public relations teams had struggled to keep pace. “We’re going to change that,” she stated, emphasizing that leadership has begun to recognize the need for improvement in transparency and operations.

In response to the swirling rumors of bankruptcy, MEXC took to social media to clarify its financial status. The exchange stated, “Recent online discussions have circulated unverified rumors regarding MEXC’s financial status. We would like to clearly state that these claims are false and misleading.” They assured users that MEXC remains financially healthy, with all user assets fully backed. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

As October comes to a close, Bitcoin (BTC) has disappointed many who had anticipated the month to be a strong one for the cryptocurrency, often referred to as “Uptober” due to its historically positive performance. Instead, Bitcoin finished the month down, creating a gap of approximately 13% from its all-time high. 

Historical Trends Suggest Bitcoin Could Rebound

Joel Kruger, a market strategist at LMAX Group, noted that while October was a letdown compared to historical trends, it’s essential to contextualize the price movements. He remarked, “Prices have held up well overall, especially after a September that actually bucked the usual weakness.”

Notably, on the 6th of this month, the market’s leading cryptocurrency reached an all-time high just beyond $126,000. Additionally, the current downturn has failed to erase the year-to-date gains, with Bitcoin still recording a 55% uptrend during this period.

However, according to a recent analysis by Fortune, this October marks the fourth-worst performance for Bitcoin since 2013 and the worst in the past seven years. Bitcoin’s performance lagged behind that of the S&P 500, which saw a gain of roughly 2.3% during the same period. 

Despite this under performance, Kruger remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential recovery in the upcoming months. “Historically, Q4 has been one of the best periods for crypto performance,” he stated, expressing hope for a push toward record highs for both Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) as the year draws to a close.

October Challenges

The month proved challenging not only in terms of price but also due to significant market events. Adam McCarthy, a senior research analyst at digital market data provider Kaiko, observed that cryptocurrencies entered October tracking gold and stocks at near all-time highs. However, as uncertainty crept into the market, investors did not flow back into Bitcoin as anticipated. 

In addition, October witnessed the largest liquidation event in cryptocurrency history, triggered by President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, alongside threats of export controls on crucial software.

McCarthy commented on the impact of this liquidation, stating, “That washout on the 10th really reminded people that this asset class is very narrow.” He emphasized that even dominant cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum can experience sharp drawdowns, citing instances of 10% declines occurring in just 15 to 20 minutes.

Amid these developments, concerns have been raised by several figures regarding the high valuations in equity markets. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, recently warned of a heightened risk of a significant correction in the US stock market within the next six months to two years. 

Jake Ostrovskis, head of trading at Wintermute’s over-the-counter desk, noted that participants in the market remain hesitant as they grapple with the implications of the largest liquidation event on record. He added that this caution persists amid ongoing speculation about vulnerabilities that might still exist within the financial system.

When writing, BTC was trading at $109,688, losing its nearest support floor of $110,000. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com