Gennaro Gattuso wasn’t handed the easiest of tasks when he succeeded Luciano Spalletti as Italy manager. The Azzurri had just been thumped 3-0 in Oslo by Erling Haaland’s rampant Norway, while they’d also struggled to put away minnows Moldova in Reggio Emilia.

They would improve under the former World Cup winning midfielder and the goals started flowing more freely, but a 4-1 home drubbing by Haaland and Co. once again at San Siro — Italy’s worst home defeat in over 70 years — consigned them to a third straight trip to the playoffs and let them know in no uncertain terms just how far away they are from being considered one of the planet’s elite.

The Playoffs Loom

Even though Italy are yet to officially confirm their spot at the World Cup, online betting sites are still somewhat big on their hopes. The popular https://www.luckyrebel.la/sportsbook/soccer/fifa-world-cup currently prices them at 35/1, a price shorter than Belgium, Croatia, and the co-hosting Americans. But first, the playoffs are looming, and Gattuso has a decision to make, specifically regarding his striking options.

He’s currently holed up somewhere in his Milan residence, hunched over a laptop, watching grainy Saudi Pro League footage of Mateo Retegui dismantling some hapless Al-Hazem defence. Five goals in three games. Numbers don’t lie, he tells himself. Then a defender mistimes a lunge, trips over the ball, and Retegui slots in with contemptuous ease. Gattuso suddenly has a mental crisis on his hands once again.

Recent Trauma

Azzurri fans know the trauma intimately by now. Sweden in 2017 — Buffon weeping at 39, an era ending in humiliation as the Scandinavians headed to Russia. North Macedonia in 2022 — Trajkovski’s dagger at the Barbera, the most humiliating night in post-war Italian football. And then last fall, the fresh wound: 4-1 against Norway, comprehensively outclassed home and away, punted into the playoffs again like a nation that’s forgotten how to qualify for anything.

Three campaigns. Three catastrophes. Sweden. North Macedonia. Norway. Italy is no longer a sleeping giant — she’s a sleepwalker lurching toward a cliff edge, and Bergamo’s Gewiss Stadium on March 26 is where the sleepwalking either ends or the country tumbles into an abyss it may never climb out of.

The question haunting Gattuso isn’t tactical. It’s existential. When he surveys his striking options, he has four candidates, none of whom would have started ahead of Christian Vieri or Filippo Inzaghi without serious debate. The Alessandro Del Piero era produced natural goalscorers who devoured playoff pressure, but which of them can score the goals required to end the Azzurri’s 12-year wait to finally venture back onto that hallowed World Cup turf?

Mateo Retegui

Italy’s most proven international striker — 11 goals in 26 caps, capocannoniere with 25 Serie A goals at Atalanta in 2024-25, a genuine penalty-box predator whose movement off the ball made defenders look amateurish — packed his bags for Al-Qadsiah at 26. He’s not winding down, but despite having had a very prolific season, it remains to be seen whether the Saudi Pro League is quite testing enough for a striker who will be required to make a difference at an international level.

Here’s the uncomfortable truth: La Gazzetta dello Sport won’t quite print it, but their columnists are already sharpening their knives to write: if Retegui misses a sitter against Northern Ireland, he won’t be forgiven. His international résumé demands he start — you don’t discard 11 international goals — but will he still be on the same level as his teammates in March after spending several months in a minor league?

Gianluca Scamacca

At his peak in 2023-24 — 12 goals, six assists, Champions League qualification with Atalanta — he was Italy’s most complete No. 9; 195 centimetres of aerial dominance and technical security that bordered on Ibrahimović-esque audacity. Then the body betrayed him. ACL tear in August 2024 and a thigh tendon surgery in February 2025. Lastly, a knee withdrawal in September 2025. He’s managed 959 Serie A minutes this season, scoring six goals, but he also netted three decisive Champions League goals in eight appearances.

Atalanta are the only Serie A side to have earned qualification for the Champions League Round of 16, and did so also thanks to the towering striker’s help. His full fitness across the two legs remains uncertain, and his international record doesn’t match his club form, having just bagged one goal in 22 Italy appearances.

Pio Esposito

Pio Esposito doesn’t remember Del Piero scoring against Germany and doesn’t carry the scar tissue from Palermo 2022. He doesn’t wake up sweating, with visions of Trajkovski. Heck, he was just eight years old the last time Italy played at a World Cup. But at 20 years old, learning from Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram in a treble-chasing Inter squad, he arrives at this debate unburdened by history — which is either his greatest asset or his greatest liability.

Four goals and three assists in 294 Serie A minutes. Two goals and two assists in the Champions League. U-19 European champion, U-20 World Cup runner-up — this kid has already won things with the famous blue shirt on, more than we can say about his rivals for a starting berth.

That defeat to Sweden in qualifying for 2018 happened with veterans so psychologically paralysed they couldn’t function. North Macedonia, four years later, haemorrhaged experience that choked. Maybe fearless youth is exactly the antidote. Or maybe it’s desperation dressed as inspiration. Starting Esposito against Northern Ireland is either the boldest selection in recent Azzurri history or the most reckless. There’s genuinely no middle ground.

Moise Kean

At 25, his 2024-25 renaissance at Fiorentina (19 league goals, genuine world-class stretches) briefly convinced everyone the breakthrough had crystallised. Then came 2025-26: eight goals in 23 Serie A games, a slight step back after a tremendous debut season in Florence.

His pace and athleticism make defenders nervous, but his finishing hasn’t always been accurate this season. Will Kean perform for the Azzurri? Surely, Italy cannot afford to answer that question in a playoff semifinal, and their head coach has a very serious decision to make. Fans and bettors alike will be eagerly waiting to see which way he will turn.

Italy will walk out at the Stadio di Bergamo on Thursday, March 26, 2026, with their World Cup future hanging in the balance against Northern Ireland. Kick-off is scheduled for 20:45 CET, but the tension will grip Bergamo long before the first whistle in this decisive 2026 World Cup play-off.

For Gennaro Gattuso, this is not just a qualification on the line; it is credibility, redemption, and the weight of a nation’s expectations.

Gattuso’s Italy: Intensity Over Ideology

The managerial shift from Luciano Spalletti to Gattuso changed the emotional temperature of this squad.

Spalletti pursued structural complexity and attacking control, but results faltered. The 3-0 defeat in Norway exposed defensive fragility and triggered change. Gattuso has simplified the message: aggression, directness, accountability.

The reaction against Estonia in Bergamo offered a glimpse of that approach. After a sterile first half, Italy exploded into life and scored five. That transformation came through tempo and conviction rather than tactical reinvention.

Now the question is whether that energy survives the strain of the UEFA play-offs, where Italy must win to secure a place at the FIFA World Cup 2026. There is no group cushion, no recovery route, qualification now depends entirely on delivering across these knockout ties. The latest World Cup odds for the FIFA international tournament still place Italy among the stronger European contenders.

Gianluigi Donnarumma commands the defensive structure, while Bastoni’s progressive passing and Di Lorenzo’s positioning must guard against counterattacks. Federico Dimarco’s delivery from wide areas could unlock a compact Northern Ireland shape. In midfield, Nicolò Barella and Davide Frattesi are expected to drive tempo and penetration, while Mateo Retegui, five goals into this campaign, provides the decisive presence inside the box.

This is not a transitional side. It is a squad expected to compete on the global stage. First, however, they must earn their place at the FIFA World Cup 2026.

Northern Ireland’s Threat Is Structural

Michael O’Neill’s team will not attempt to control possession in Bergamo. They do not need to.

Northern Ireland are disciplined without the ball and ruthless when space appears. Their shape is narrow, their transitions immediate. The first pass after regaining possession is almost always forward.

Conor Bradley provides width and stamina from defence. Isaac Price and Justin Devenny carry energy through midfield. Dion Charles gives them a direct outlet, while Jamie Donley has shown he can arrive late in dangerous areas.

Set pieces represent their most obvious weapon. Italy have looked uncertain defending second phases in recent matches. Against a physically committed opponent, that detail matters.

If Italy’s defensive line pushes high without coordinated pressure on the ball, Northern Ireland will attack the channels. They have done so before against stronger teams.

The Mental Equation

The tactical contrast is clear. The psychological contrast is sharper.

Italy are chasing redemption after two failed World Cup cycles. Another slip would stretch the absence to 12 years. That weight sits on every pass, every misplaced cross, every missed opportunity.

Northern Ireland arrive with clarity. They are two games from a World Cup and have nothing to protect. O’Neill has framed the tie as an opening rather than an obstacle. That framing removes fear.

If Italy score early, the evening should settle. Their technical superiority will widen gaps. If the match remains level beyond the hour mark, tension will creep in.

The crowd in Bergamo will demand urgency. Patience will not last long.

Bergamo Must Become Italy’s Fortress

Italy are not just playing a qualifier, they are defending national credibility on home soil. The Stadio di Bergamo has delivered intensity in recent months, and Gattuso will demand that the crowd turn urgency into momentum from the opening minute. In play-off football, atmosphere is not decoration; it is leverage.

Northern Ireland will aim to slow the rhythm and quiet the stadium early. The longer the match remains balanced, the more tension can creep into the stands. Italy must therefore impose tempo immediately, force territorial dominance, and prevent the game from settling into a nervous stalemate.

A fast start changes everything. An early goal energises the crowd and stretches Northern Ireland’s compact shape. Without it, the pressure shifts inward and that is precisely the scenario Gattuso must avoid.

What The Fans Should Expect

Expect Italy to begin aggressively, pushing full-backs high and circulating the ball quickly through Barella. Expect Dimarco to deliver early crosses toward Retegui. Expect Frattesi to attack the penalty area from deep.

Expect Northern Ireland to compress space centrally, concede wide areas, and spring forward through direct channels. They will contest every aerial duel and target second balls around the box.

This will not be elegant football. It will be territorial, physical and emotionally charged. Italy have the deeper squad. They have the superior record. They have a home advantage.

But play-offs are rarely decided by reputation. Thursday night in Bergamo is about composure under strain. If Gattuso’s side controls the tempo and avoids impatience, their quality should prevail. If doubt creeps in, Northern Ireland will sense it immediately. And in matches like this, sensing weakness is often enough.