Formula 1 is set for the final instalment of its short, early season leg in Asia this weekend as the Japanese Grand Prix will host round three of the 2026 campaign.

This follows the season-opening Australian and Chinese grands prix, which were both won by Mercedes - clearly dominating the latest regulation switch so far.

Whether that superiority continues this weekend remains to be seen, but there are also lots of talking points throughout the grid following the first two rounds.

So, here are five things to look out for at Suzuka, which’ll be the final race before Miami in May as Saudi Arabia and Bahrain were both cancelled due to the ongoing Middle Eastern conflict. 

Is Kimi Antonelli a genuine threat to George Russell?

George Russell, Mercedes, Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes

When Mercedes came out of the blocks firing during pre-season testing, George Russell instantly became the heavy favourite for the 2026 F1 title and with good reason. The 28-year-old is now in his eighth season, so has built up a lot of experience. And, if the Silver Arrows do dominate, Russell’s biggest competition would be his teenage team-mate Kimi Antonelli, entering year two in F1.

So by all metrics, Russell should have the better of his stablemate and he backed that up at the Melbourne opener by dominating the Australian Grand Prix from pole in a Mercedes 1-2. But then the script flipped in Shanghai with Antonelli claiming his maiden victory in another 1-2, and it was impressive how the Italian calmly managed everything from the front, streaking clear of the competition.

Question of the week: Can anything or anyone stop Mercedes from winning both F1 titles in 2026?

The only question now is whether he can deliver on a consistent basis and actually challenge Russell for the championship. There are no question marks over the Briton, who clearly showed that he’s ready for a title charge last season, it’s just whether or not Antonelli is ready himself.

Suzuka will be a good place to find out if he has improved on the inconsistency he showed as a rookie, or if in fact, Russell does still have supreme dominance over his team-mate and will likely romp towards his first crown.

How strong will Ferrari’s challenge to Mercedes be?

Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari, George Russell, Mercedes

Although Mercedes claimed a 1-2 in both grands prix this year, it didn’t come without a threat from its nearest challenger Ferrari. Charles Leclerc took the lead at the start of the Australian GP as Russell was slow off the line and the two engaged in an early to-and-fro before the Scuderia failing to pit under a VSC resigned it to third and fourth.

Then in Shanghai, Lewis Hamilton replicated Leclerc’s efforts, though dropped back within five laps and Antonelli was left unchallenged. So, the opportunities have been there for Ferrari and if it is to actually make a genuine attempt at winning the title, it needs to make the most of them and fast, otherwise Mercedes will just streak clear.

That begins at Suzuka, where the flowing, medium-to-high speed corners should actually favour the SF-26, which has impressed with its cornering speed. It means there might finally be a genuine multi-team battle for pole, though achieving that this weekend is probably of less importance than in previous years due to how these nimbler cars have caused ‘yo-yo’ style racing with overtakes in places never seen before. 

So even if Ferrari beats the Silver Arrows to pole, holding it off on Sunday is another matter as that Mercedes engine is highly efficient with its energy and it isn’t exactly easy to harvest battery power at Suzuka. 

Third time lucky for Oscar Piastri?

Oscar Piastri, McLaren

The early season dominance from Mercedes and Ferrari shows it’s not been a great start to the title defence from McLaren, which has crashed back down to earth so far in 2026. The Woking outfit is third in the standings with 18 points - 80 behind Mercedes - eight of which came in the Shanghai sprint as it’s only had one car start a grand prix.

That was Lando Norris in Melbourne with the reigning world champion finishing fifth, as the opener saw his team-mate Oscar Piastri crash out on the reconnaissance lap. The Aussie failed to start again a week later as part of a double DNS for McLaren; an electrical problem ruled Norris out of the Chinese GP, while Piastri’s MCL40 simply failed to fire up. 

McLaren has the third-best 2026 car, but can't yet rely on one of its strongest assets

So hopefully, Piastri will finally get to start a grand prix this weekend and if he does, it’ll come with a base expectation of squabbling Norris for fifth in the order as McLaren is comfortably third in the standings. That means the Woking outfit needs to take any positives it can at the moment, and that is especially true for Piastri after the way in which he lost the 2025 title.

It feels like a lifetime ago that he actually had a successful weekend, arguably Zandvoort in August, so this is a rot he needs to stop and show whether or not he has improved upon last year and can once again be a match for his team-mate. 

Same problems to persist for Red Bull and Max Verstappen?

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

“The whole weekend we’ve been off,” said Max Verstappen. “The car is completely undriveable. I cannot even put a bit of a reference in. Every lap is like survival.”

Those were the words of the four-time world champion amid a disastrous Shanghai weekend for Red Bull, which until then had enjoyed a relatively positive start to 2026 showing signs of challenging McLaren.

But then reality struck in China, as the Austrian outfit suffered a double non-points finish in the sprint before claiming four measly points via Isack Hadjar on Sunday, as Verstappen retired after a sudden loss of power.

His thoughts on the new regulations are well documented, but it obviously doesn’t help the Dutchman that the RB22 is failing to match his talents with Mercedes boss Toto Wolff even claiming that Verstappen is in a "horror show”. 

The problems were all over in Shanghai, but there is one that keeps cropping up, and that is race starts. The procedure under the 2026 rules is now more complex, as the removal of the MGU-H means drivers must rev their engines high for at least 10 seconds to spool up the turbo for a smooth getaway.

But both Red Bull drivers are yet to enjoy a good start this year, as they’ve suffered from a lack of battery power for lights out leading to Verstappen losing a combined six spots on lap one this year. So that’s obviously a big problem which needs fixing, otherwise achieving fourth in the standings might not be easy as it seems. 

The race starts problem that is costing Max Verstappen in F1 2026

How will Audi cope after Jonathan Wheatley's exit?

Jonathan Wheatley, Audi F1 Team

Everything was looking rosy at Audi. The German marque is making its F1 debut this year and was competitive from the off with Q3 and points for Gabriel Bortoleto in Melbourne, before his team-mate Nico Hulkenberg qualified and finished 11th a week later. So although there were no points in China, the pace was still there. 

It has therefore shown signs of fighting the likes of Haas, Alpine and Racing Bulls at the front of the midfield with the Audi power unit being particularly impressive, especially as it is its debut and the German outfit hasn’t got customer teams to collect data from.

But the squad has since hit a bump: Jonathan Wheatley announced his resignation as team principal with his former boss Mattia Binotto assuming the role. Wheatley only joined at the beginning of last year, when it was known as Sauber, but was instrumental in turning around the operational side of the team allowing it to go from just four points in 2024 to 70 in ‘25 - which included a podium for Hulkenberg at Silverstone.

What Wheatley also represented was a settled management structure, something the team was previously lacking, and had Audi going in the right places, but his shock exit now threatens to undo all of that terrific progress. It does feel like the German marque is back to square one, so there’ll be questions about it this weekend and it’ll be interesting to see how Binotto copes.

Jonathan Wheatley officially leaves Audi, before replacing Adrian Newey at Aston Martin

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The issue surrounding Formula 1 compression ratios is not yet fully closed, and Mercedes is once again under scrutiny. While the FIA will clamp down on the high-profile compression ratio loophole from 1 June, a new area of discussion has opened up around the Silver Arrows’ front wing.

Instead of focussing on the AMG M17 E Performance power unit inside the W17, all eyes are now on the aerodynamics of the 2026 car’s front wing. After the Chinese Grand Prix, teams were required by regulation to make their designs public, allowing the FIA – as well as rival teams – to review the concepts developed on the new single-seaters.

Mercedes appears to be under observation by the FIA for its movable front wing, which allegedly operates in a so-called “two-phase” manner.

The closing movement of the wing reportedly occurs in two stages: the first complies with the 400-millisecond limit set by the 2026 regulations, satisfying the sensor used to monitor movable aerodynamics. However, there is a second command – bringing the wing elements to full closure – and this extends the closing time beyond the 400-millisecond allowance.

L'ala anteriore in livrea speciale della Mercedes W17 per Suzuka

It is easy to find video clips online showing the activation of the Mercedes system and the operation of this “two-phase” wing, suggesting a possible irregularity on which the FIA will have to rule. The solution is believed to reduce the effect of the sudden forward load transfer just before braking, improving the car’s balance during the critical phase of corner entry.

The initial request for regulatory clarification was originally attributed to Ferrari by a report from Italian publication Autoracer. However, the Scuderia has denied this.

According to information available to Motorsport.com, the report is believed to have come from another team in the paddock, which remains anonymous for now. More details are expected ahead of this weekend’s grand prix at Suzuka.

The matter now lies in the hands of the technical staff led by FIA single-seater director Nikolas Tombazis. The Japanese race weekend will need to resolve the issue to prevent further controversy.

Ferrari pushes energy recovery to the limit: How its strategy will change at Suzuka

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James Hinchcliffe defiantly stated during the F1 Nation podcast that 'Lewis Hamilton is back,' arguing that 'this is everything that all the Ferrari fans were hoping for at the start of 2025.'

Hamilton suffered a difficult first season with Ferrari after he joined the Maranello outfit at the start of 2025. As he took time to adapt to the new team, he managed to secure only one sprint race win in China, while his best result in a grand prix last year was fourth.

Now, the Briton has put the torrid year and ground effect era behind him and has come back after a personal reset over the winter break. Even from the outside, fans are seeing a return of the old seven-time champion, as he seems much more optimistic for the year ahead. 

Hamilton currently sits fourth in the drivers' standings with 33 points and he secured his first podium finish for Ferrari at the Chinese Grand Prix. 

"You go all the way back to '22, and he never liked that car," Hinchcliffe said. "He just never liked those regs, something about the driving style, and we all know how he likes to approach a corner, and how that inherently was never going to work in that type of car, all these things.

Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari

"So the hope was always that with this new rule set, it was going to be a bit more of a traditional car and a bit more suited to his driving style and I think we're seeing that.

"Add in the fact that Ferrari's done their homework. They've shown up with a strong power unit, with a strong chassis, and he's now going toe-to-toe with Charles Leclerc, who is a guy that everyone has touted for the last five years as world champion material. And who systematically trounced him last year. Now they're neck and neck.

"So, I think Lewis is back. I think this is everything that all the Ferrari fans were hoping for at the start of '25. And it could be the start of something great."

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