5 things to watch in Sunday night’s Chicago Bears-San Francisco 49ers game — plus our Week 17 predictions
The road to Santa Clara, Calif., starts in … well, Santa Clara.
If the Chicago Bears (11-4) can dare to dream of making it as far as Super Bowl LX, their most viable path begins with their first trip to host venue Levi’s Stadium, where they will face the San Francisco 49ers (11-4) on “Sunday Night Football” (7:20 p.m., NBC-5).
It’s two playoff-bound teams jockeying for position within not only the NFC, but also their own divisions.
With two games left in the regular season, the Bears need a win or a Green Bay Packers loss — or a tie by both — to lock down their first NFC North title since 2018. The longer shot would be securing the No. 1 seed, which earns a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.
With either outcome, the objective is the same: host as many playoff games as possible at Soldier Field.
Common sense says you always want to play on your turf, backed by your crowd, and the numbers underscore why it’s so important. Since the 2000 season, home teams have gone 169-91 in the playoffs (excluding Super Bowls), a .650 winning percentage, according to Elias Sports Bureau.
“Punching playoffs is cool and all, but we’ve still got work to do,” wide receiver Luther Burden III said. “We’ve got bigger goals, and we’re going to keep our head down and keep working.”
Defensive tackle Andrew Billings said the stakes have “been high since Week 1.”
“Every game was like that game,” he said. “When it comes to the playoffs, what we’re trying to do is prepare ourselves, approaching each week like a divisional game — like you win this and you get the No. 1 seed. And when you do get that … statistically it’s great.”
Here are five things to watch in the Bears-49ers matchup — plus our Week 17 predictions.
1. Pressing question: Can the Bears defense stop the 49ers on third down?
Or in the red zone, for that matter. The 49ers are tough outs in both situations.
San Francisco’s offense ranks second in third-down efficiency at 50%, slightly behind the Packers’ 50.27%. Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen explained why the 49ers excel on third down.
“No. 1 is they do a really good job executing on first and second down,” he said. “They do a great job kind of staying ahead of the chains.
“And then they do a great job of getting to spots. The quarterback does a really good job of reading out the defense, throwing it to the open guy. Yeah, it’s tough to deal with.”
The Bears defense has been pretty good at stalling teams in the red zone — ranking ninth at 54.17% — and there was no better illustration of keeping opponents out of the end zone than Saturday, when the Packers went 0 for 5 in trips to the red zone.
But the 49ers convert 63.33% of their red-zone opportunities into touchdowns, which ranks eighth.
“Their ability to run the football down there in the red area helps them out a lot,” Allen said.
Both third-down and red-zone success draws from the same well.
“They’re extremely well-coached,” Allen said of ninth-year 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan. “How do you know when a team is really well-coached? You just watch the speed at which they operate … up front in the running game and how they get to their landmarks and how they get to their spots and how all the offensive linemen are working in unison in terms of how they run their routes.
“Each player will run a certain route, and no matter who the player is, it looks the same. And so that, to me, is the detail in the coaching, and that’s what makes it really tough to defend.”
Bears coach Ben Johnson said Shanahan runs a precise, detailed offense.
“They know how to attack coverages and it continues to morph and evolve,” he said. “Each year this Shanahan offense looks a little bit different. It’s got some different wrinkles.
“As defenses change, he’s been changing as well, and that’s enabled him to stay on the forefront of some of these concepts.”
2. Player in the spotlight: 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey
McCaffrey leads the NFL with 372 touches, according to NFL Pro’s Next Gen Stats. He has 26.9% of the team’s targets, which is ninth in the league regardless of position. Pittsburgh Steelers running back Kenneth Gainwell is the only non-wide receiver who receives a higher percentage of targets (29.3%).
That’s the 49ers’ M.O.: Shanahan keeps you guessing — and not just with McCaffrey.
The combination of McCaffrey and tight end George Kittle — both 2025 Pro Bowl selections — is enough to keep a defensive coordinator up at night.
“The backs and tight ends are really tough matchups on a defense,” Allen said. “There’s usually some things, if you have an outstanding receiver … you can do to try to take those guys away. It becomes more challenging inside at the tight end (or) running back position. It’s unique that they’re getting so much production from those two spots.
“Those two guys are as good as it comes in terms of playing the tight end position: Kittle as a blocker, Kittle as a receiver, the run-after-catch that he provides. It’s certainly a challenge.”
Kittle is fourth in the league in expected points added per target (plus-0.74), according to NFL Pro. His availability for Sunday is in question (more on that later).
Allen, the former New Orleans Saints defensive coordinator and head coach, saw a lot of McCaffrey when the latter was the star of the Carolina Panthers and led the NFL with 2,392 scrimmage yards in 2019.
“So I know exactly what type of challenge he presents,” Allen said.
A particularly good matchup will be McCaffrey versus the Bears linebackers in the passing game. According to NFL Pro, McCaffrey has run a route against a linebacker 260 times, 69 more than any other running back.
Bears weak-side linebacker Tremaine Edmunds is one of the best coverage linebackers in the league. He has four interceptions, third at his position, and has held opposing quarterbacks to a 62.2 passer rating, which ranks ninth among qualified linebackers — just behind San Francisco’s Fred Warner.
3. In the fourth quarter, ‘the spark becomes a fire.’
The Bears have scored 83 points in the fourth quarter and overtime over the last eight weeks, the most by any NFL team in that span. They have a league-best six fourth-quarter comebacks this season.
When trailing with four minutes or less to go, the Bears have six touchdowns (tied for first) and average 7.64 yards per play (second), according to Sports Reference’s Stathead.
Caleb Williams has thrown the most touchdown passes (four) and has the third-highest passer rating (115.5) when trailing with four minutes or less to go (minimum 30 plays).
“It’s really just us,” Williams said. “Realizing that it isn’t necessarily the other team that’s actually stopping us.
“We’ve played versus some of the best players in this league. I think that’s where it’s come from. The mindset just changes. A play happens and the spark becomes a fire, and we’re ignited at that point.”
Johnson said the Bears’ fourth-quarter success doesn’t necessarily come from the play-calling but the people.
“We have put a premium on guys that we feel like will be able to handle pressure,” he said. “The guys we look to bring in this building, we want to make sure that they can handle that type of stuff.
“And Caleb’s certainly built that way. I know for certain Colston Loveland’s built that way. We have a number of guys on this roster that are built that way.”
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Offensive coordinator Declan Doyle felt like the Bears did a better job against the Packers of getting off to a fast start, not just a strong finish. They moved 70 yards on their first possession before a botched snap caused them to turn the ball over on downs.
“When you look at it big picture, we didn’t score in the first half,” Doyle said. “The fourth-quarter piece has more to do with the players and them not flinching, them being comfortable in those situations, them feeling like all of their preparation is going to lead to a successful outcome and them just kind of staying with the process.”
Part of it is Williams’ processing seems to speed up and his improvisational skills come alive during gotta-have-it moments in the fourth quarter and overtime.
“His arm talent is elite,” 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh said. “It feels like when he starts scrambling, he gets more accurate.”
Shanahan added: “Caleb is one of the best throwers, one of the most athletic quarterbacks I’ve ever seen in terms of his height, weight and speed. He makes some big-time throws, extremely scary on the perimeter, can hold on to the ball for a while — not in a bad way — but by creating stuff which makes coverages have to hold up forever.
“And when you have a talented guy like that who’s got the speed and the size, usually they get a run game, get some bootlegs and play actions off of it, you limit how many times you’ve got to drop back. It makes sense why he is playing at such a high level.”
4. By the numbers
One thing to watch is the turnover battle. San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy threw seven interceptions over his first four starts, including a three-pick game in a 20-9 victory against the Panthers on Nov. 24.
Purdy has been stingier with interceptions in three starts since then (one pick), but he has put the ball on the ground in each of the last two games, losing one of those fumbles.
The Bears lead the NFL with 31 takeaways and a plus-21 turnover differential. They have a takeaway in eight straight games, the longest active streak in the league.
5. Injury updates
Like last week, the Bears will be monitoring the health of their wide receivers. Burden (ankle) returned to practice on a limited basis Wednesday, but Rome Odunze (foot) sat out again.
Down both Odunze — who missed a third straight game — and Burden against the Packers, the Bears leaned on DJ Moore, who has endured his own injury issues this season. Moore had a game-high 97 yards on five receptions, including the walk-off touchdown catch in overtime. He also had a 12-yard run.
“With each player you start to understand reliability and durability, obviously with DJ having to fight through stuff,” Doyle said. “DJ has done a great job of being dependable and just being consistent down-in and down-out.”
Rookie Jahdae Walker was stunned when he learned of Moore’s attendance record from coaches. Moore has missed only two games in his eight-year career — none since 2020 — and one was because he was on the league’s reserve/COVID-19 list.
“I’m like: ‘This dude, is he even mortal? Like, dang,’” Walker said. “He’s never injured. I’ve seen him battle through so many injuries and just keep working.
“Y’all don’t see a lot of stuff that he goes through, pain-wise. I see it from behind the scenes and it’s crazy. I don’t know how he gets up and walks every day. He’s been hurting for real.”
Four members of the secondary popped up on Wednesday’s injury report: Pro Bowl safety Kevin Byard III (ankle) and cornerbacks Nahshon Wright (hamstring), Nick McCloud (illness) and C.J. Gardner-Johnson (knee).
“I can’t speak for anybody else, but I practiced today,” Byard told the Tribune on Wednesday. “So if you ask if I’m going to play, I’m going to play.”
Meanwhile, the 49ers could face a significant setback if Kittle can’t go. He was a non-participant Wednesday because of an ankle injury.
“He’s got a chance, so we’re not ruling him out,” Shanahan said.
Predictions
Brad Biggs (11-4)
The winner will remain alive for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. While the Panthers (8-7) are the only team with a winning record that the 49ers have faced during their five-game winning streak, the closest of those games was 11 points and the average margin was 16.4. The Bears have won only two games by more than that all year: 31-14 over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3 and 31-3 over the Cleveland Browns two weeks ago. Quarterback Brock Purdy is playing really well, and if the Bears sit in zone coverage, he’s capable of a big game. The status of tight end George Kittle (ankle) is a significant question. He’s pivotal to the passing and running games, and if he’s unable to go, I might flip my pick.
49ers 30, Bears 24
Sean Hammond (12-3)
It’s hard to pick against the Bears when so much has gone their way this season, but the 49ers are surging at the right time now that Purdy is healthy again. This looks like a scary team at the moment. It won’t be easy for the Bears to pull this one off on the road. If the 49ers can take care of the ball, I think they’ll take care of business.
49ers 30, Bears 27
Phil Thompson (10-5)
The bend-but-don’t break defensive strategy worked out surprisingly well against the Packers, who mostly settled for field goals. But Kyle Shanahan’s offense is too surgical for that. Yes, the 49ers have the league’s worst pass rush and an inconsistent run defense, but I can’t see the Bears winning a shootout at San Francisco.
49ers 31, Bears 27