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Mike Bianchi: Is Lane Kiffin about to spark a $150 million Florida Gators-Miami Dolphins bidding war?
ORLANDO, Fla. — The question floating around Gainesville right now isn’t whether Lane Kiffin is the best candidate for the University of Florida’s head coaching job.
It’s whether the Gators are actually willing to spend $150 million — fully guaranteed, over 10 years — to hire him.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for the Gators hiring Lane Kiffin, but — wince! — at what price?
That will likely be the price tag for Kiffin, according to Mike Ginnitti of Spotrac.com, one of the few places on Earth where sports business math is explained without requiring a stiff drink. And like it or not, Kiffin is the name every big-time program is likely circling. Not just Florida, but LSU, perhaps Penn State and maybe even a couple of NFL teams (hello, Miami Dolphins) might want him, too.
Who are you betting on if the Gators and the Dolphins (when they fire Mike McDaniel) get into a bidding war for Kiffin?
I think I’ll take the Gators for one simple reason.
Because no one — NO ONE! — throws money around quite like college football programs hunting for their next savior.
Remember when Florida Athletic Director Scott Stricklin was asked recently about how to curb these ridiculous coaching buyouts and contracts? His answer: “We could sit here and talk high and mighty about how we’re going to draw the line, and it would probably impact the pool of candidates you have depending how strict you draw that line. We’re going to try to be as smart as we can with our resources and make the best possible decision. But we’re also going to be very competitive.”
Translation: We’re going to keep spending money like a trust-fund kid with Dad’s AmEx platinum card.
Translation of the translation: If Kiffin wants $150 million, we’re probably going to hand him $151 million just to be safe.
And that’s just Lane’s price tag. He’s going to demand elite assistants, analysts, support staffers and probably a small army of quality-control coaches who hold clipboards like sacred artifacts. Add it up, and the total cost of the Lane Train becomes the Lane Plane — a $200 million aviation-grade financial commitment.
Meanwhile, let’s not forget UF just paid Billy Napier $21 million to go away. Before him, Dan Mullen flamed out early. Before him, Jim McElwain. Before him, Will Muschamp. Four consecutive head coaches — none made it longer than four years.
Which leads to the most terrifying math equation in the SEC.
If Florida gives Kiffin a 10-year, $150 million fully guaranteed contract and he flames out like his predecessors, what would it cost to fire him after Year 4?
Answer: $90 million.
Ninety. Million. Dollars.
That’s not a buyout. That’s a ransom note written in gold ink.
And don’t kid yourself, it would somehow be justified with these seven magical words: “You can’t put a price on winning.” As we know all too well after the recent explosion of contract buyouts, universities have shown zero interest in fiscal responsibility. Schools cry poor and beg their boosters when it’s time to pay players, then torch the GDP of a small nation on fired coaches.
And now Florida is staring down the barrel of the next phase of the arms race: the nine-figure coaching contract.
Would Lane Kiffin win big at Florida? Maybe. Possibly. Hopefully. But the bigger question is this:
Are the Gators ready to risk $150 million on a coach in a sport where four years is considered long-term stability?
Don’t kid yourself, if this happens and then Kiffin leaves UF with anything less than championships, the Gators won’t just be rebuilding a roster.
They’ll be rebuilding their entire financial ecosystem.
